Remaining useful life prediction of aircraft lithium-ion batteries based on F-distribution particle filter and kernel smoothing algorithm

As an emergency and auxiliary power source for aircraft, lithium (Li)-ion batteries are important components of aerospace power systems. The Remaining Useful Life (RUL) prediction of Li-ion batteries is a key technology to ensure the reliable operation of aviation power systems. Particle Filter (PF) is an effective method to predict the RUL of Li-ion batteries because of its uncertainty representation and management ability. However, there are problems that particle weights cannot be updated in the prediction stage and particles degradation. To settle these issues, an innovative technique of F-distribution PF and Kernel Smoothing (FPFKS) algorithm is proposed. In the prediction stage, the weights of the particles are dynamically updated by the F kernel instead of being fixed all the time. Meanwhile, a first-order independent Markov capacity degradation model is established. Moreover, the kernel smoothing algorithm is integrated into PF, so that the variance of the parameters of capacity degradation model keeps invariant. Experiments based on NASA battery data sets show that FPFKS can be excellently applied to RUL prediction of Li-ion batteries.     

基于非线性Wiener过程的航空发动机性能衰减建模与剩余寿命预测

针对航空发动机在性能衰减过程中普遍存在的非线性和三源不确定性问题,提出了一种基于非线性Wiener过程的航空发动机性能衰减建模与剩余寿命（RUL）预测方法。首先,为解决目前大多数剩余寿命预测方法中潜在假设的局限性,即当前时刻估计的漂移系数与上一时刻漂移系数的后验估计完全相等,在状态空间模型的框架下建立了一类新的同时考虑非线性和三源不确定性的性能衰减模型,并在首达时间下推导出剩余寿命的分布。然后,针对新研发航空发动机缺乏历史数据和先验信息的问题,提出了一种基于Kalman滤波和条件期望最大化（ECM）算法的参数估计方法,使得估计的模型参数不依赖于历史数据量。同时能够在获得一个新的性能衰减数据后,实现对模型参数的自适应估计和在线更新,进而实时地更新航空发动机的剩余寿命分布。实验结果表明,本文方法可以有效地提高剩余寿命预测的准确性,能为航空发动机的维修决策提供可靠的依据。     

Remaining useful life prediction based on the Wiener process for an aviation axial piston pump

An aviation hydraulic axial piston pump’s degradation from comprehensive wear is a typical gradual failure model. Accurate wear prediction is difficult as random and uncertain char-acteristics must be factored into the estimation. The internal wear status of the axial piston pump is characterized by the return oil flow based on fault mechanism analysis of the main frictional pairs in the pump. The performance degradation model is described by the Wiener process to predict the remaining useful life (RUL) of the pump. Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) is performed by utilizing the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm to estimate the initial parameters of the Wiener process while recursive estimation is conducted utilizing the Kalman filter method to estimate the drift coefficient of the Wiener process. The RUL of the pump is then calculated accord-ing to the performance degradation model based on the Wiener process. Experimental results indi-cate that the return oil flow is a suitable characteristic for reflecting the internal wear status of the axial piston pump, and thus the Wiener process-based method may effectively predicate the RUL of the pump.     

A Novel PF-LSSVR-based Framework for Failure Prognosis of Nonlinear Systems with Time-varying Parameters

Particle filtering (PF) is being applied successfully in nonlinear and/or non-Gaussian system failure prognosis. However, for failure prediction of many complex systems whose dynamic state evolution models involve time-varying parameters, the traditional PF-based prognosis framework will probably generate serious deviations in results since it implements prediction through iterative calculation using the state models. To address the problem, this paper develops a novel integrated PF-LSSVR framework based on PF and least squares support vector regression (LSSVR) for nonlinear system failure prognosis. This approach employs LSSVR for long-term observation series prediction and applies PF-based dual estimation to collaboratively estimate the values of system states and parameters of the corresponding future time instances. Meantime, the propagation of prediction uncertainty is emphatically taken into account. Therefore, PF-LSSVR avoids over-dependency on system state models in prediction phase. With a two-sided failure definition, the probability distribution of system remaining useful life (RUL) is accessed and the corresponding methods of calculating performance evaluation metrics are put forward. The PF-LSSVR framework is applied to a three-vessel water tank system failure prognosis and it has much higher prediction accuracy and confidence level than traditional PF-based framework.     

基于改进容积卡尔曼滤波的奇异避免姿态估计

 利用矢量进行卫星姿态估计可以归结为非线性滤波问题。为了提高卫星姿态估计的精度,利用龙贝格-马尔塔(LM)迭代算法改进了容积卡尔曼滤波(CKF)。继而,提出改进容积卡尔曼滤波与四元数结合的容积四元数估计器(CQE),有效地避免了卫星大角度机动出现的奇异现象。进一步,给出了一种与影子修正罗德里格参数切换的容积修正罗德里格参数估计器(CME)。仿真对比表明,初始误差较大时容积修正罗德里格参数估计器具有更好的收敛速度和鲁棒性。     

Life cycle testing of a sealed 24-V, 42-Ah nickel-cadmium aircraftbattery

Extensive research has been conducted in the design and manufacture of very long life sealed maintenance free nickel-cadmium aircraft batteries. This study presents data on a 100% depth of discharge (DOD) life test performed on a nominal capacity 42-Ah battery. The purpose of this study is to validate design concepts, determine the life characteristics of the newly designed sealed Ni-Cd batteries, and develop baseline information on failure rates and mechanisms. The data from this experiment can be used to compare depth of discharge versus battery life with similar tests such as the lower DOD experiments performed on spacecraft batteries. This information is important in the ongoing development of long life batteries and in developing failure models for life prediction     

多传感器监测飞机部件非线性退化评估

飞机部件一般采用多传感器进行状态监控,针对退化过程具有非线性特征的民机典型部件剩余寿命（RUL）预测及评估问题,首先建立了部件性能参数的一般非线性Wiener退化过程,推导出基于多传感器监测数据的剩余寿命预测框架和概率密度函数,随后利用状态空间模型进行隐退化状态估计并同时利用最大期望算法（EM）实现参数递推估计,最后形成了飞机部件多传感器监测下的剩余寿命非线性退化评估方法。通过数值仿真案例和民航发动机剩余寿命预测案例,对比线性退化模型和基于单一传感器监测数据的非线性退化模型,验证了所提方法在提高剩余寿命预测精度的有效性,可为飞机及其部件的剩余使用寿命预测和视情维护决策提供技术支撑。     

Remaining useful life prediction based on variation coefficient consistency test of a Wiener process

High-cost equipment is often reused after maintenance, and whether the information before the maintenance can be used for the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) prediction after the maintenance is directly determined by the consistency of the degradation pattern before and after the maintenance. Aiming at this problem, an RUL prediction method based on the consistency test of a Wiener process is proposed. Firstly, the parameters of the Wiener process estimated by Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) are proved to be biased, and a modified unbiased estimation method is proposed and verified by derivation and simulations. Then, the h statistic is constructed according to the reciprocal of the variation coefficient of the Wiener process, and the sampling distribution is derived. Meanwhile, a universal method for the consistency test is proposed based on the sampling distribution theorem, which is verified by simulation data and classical crack degradation data. Finally, based on the consistency test of the degradation model, a weighted fusion RUL prediction method is presented for the fuel pump of an airplane, and the validity of the presented method is verified by accurate computation results of real data, which provides a theoretical and practical guidance for engineers to predict the RUL of equipment after maintenance.     

The Analysis of Voltage-Limited Battery Charging Systems

This paper discusses the techniques and problem areas associated with the charging of sealed secondary batteries for spacecraft, and the operating characteristics of the modified voltage-limited charging system. An approach is described for the characterization of battery parameters. The method of selection of a suitable voltage-temperature limit, with regard to battery parameters and system performance requirements, is described. A 4 ampere-hour battery system is analyzed, and its capability is defined parametrically.     

International Space Station power storage upgrade planned

As the Earth-orbit International Space Station (ISS) grows, it needs more power which is generated by solar panels. For periods in which the planet Earth occults sunlight, energy is stored in the biggest set of batteries ever flown in space. Reliability of power is important in a space station because a failure requires costly launch of replacement components. Even greater importance results when astronauts work in the station. A power failure that causes the astronauts to perish would be a very serious event. The first battery-containing "integrated equipment module" was launched November 30, 2000 and installed on port 6 of the International Space Station. Two more modules will be launched by the United States; to be launched in 2004 is the European Space Agency's "attached COLUMBUS APM laboratory," which will have its own power system. Unexpected battery-related events occurred in the integrated equipment module during its first year-and-a-half in orbit. The problems and their solutions were described in papers presented at the 37/sup th/ Intersociety Energy Conversion Engineering Conference. Since the International Space Station carries more battery cells than any other spacecraft, the in-flight performance data from its battery assembly can be useful to engineers who design power supplies for other spacecraft. We, therefore, summarize the battery development process, the adopted design, and an unexpected in-flight battery degradation and its correction.     

An adaptive-order particle filter for remaining useful life prediction of aviation piston pumps

An accurate estimation of the remaining useful life (RUL) not only contributes to an effective application of an aviation piston pump, but also meets the necessity of condition based maintenance (CBM). For the current RUL evaluation methods, a model-based method is inappropriate for the degradation process of an aviation piston pump due to difficulties of modeling, while a data-based method rarely presents high-accuracy prediction in a long period of time. In this work, an adaptive-order particle filter (AOPF) prognostic process is proposed aiming at improving long-term prediction accuracy of RUL by combining both kinds of methods. A dynamic model is initialized by a data-driven or empirical method. When a new observation comes, the prior state distribution is approximated by a current model. The order of the current model is updated adaptively by fusing the information of the observation. Monte Carlo simulation is employed for estimating the posterior probability density function of future states of the pump’s degradation. With updating the order number adaptively, the method presents a higher precision in contrast with those of traditional methods. In a case study, the proposed AOPF method is adopted to forecast the degradation status of an aviation piston pump with experimental return oil flow data, and the analytical results show the effectiveness of the proposed AOPF method.     

Hard-constrained versus soft-constrained parameter estimation

The paper aims at contrasting two different ways of incorporating a priori information in parameter estimation, i.e., hard-constrained and soft-constrained estimation. Hard-constrained estimation can be interpreted, in the Bayesian framework, as maximum a posteriori probability (MAP) estimation with uniform prior distribution over the constraining set, and amounts to a constrained least-squares (LS) optimization. Novel analytical results on the statistics of the hard-constrained estimator are presented for a linear regression model subject to lower and upper bounds on a single parameter. This analysis allows to quantify the mean squared error (MSE) reduction implied by constraints and to see how this depends on the size of the constraining set compared with the confidence regions of the unconstrained estimator. Contrastingly, soft-constrained estimation can be regarded as MAP estimation with Gaussian prior distribution and amounts to a less computationally demanding unconstrained LS optimization with a cost suitably modified by the mean and covariance of the Gaussian distribution. Results on the design of the prior covariance of the soft-constrained estimator for optimal MSE performance are also given. Finally, a practical case-study concerning a line fitting estimation problem is presented in order to validate the theoretical results derived in the paper as well as to compare the performance of the hard-constrained and soft-constrained approaches under different settings     

Remaining useful life prognostics for aeroengine based on superstatistics and information fusion

Remaining useful life（RUL） prognostics is a fundamental premise to perform conditionbased maintenance（CBM） for a system subject to performance degradation. Over the past decades,research has been conducted in RUL prognostics for aeroengine. However, most of the prognostics technologies and methods simply base on single parameter, making it hard to demonstrate the specific characteristics of its degradation. To solve such problems, this paper proposes a novel approach to predict RUL by means of superstatistics and information fusion. The performance degradation evolution of the engine is modeled by fusing multiple monitoring parameters, which manifest non-stationary characteristics while degrading. With the obtained degradation curve,prognostics model can be established by state-space method, and then RUL can be estimated when the time-varying parameters of the model are predicted and updated through Kalman filtering algorithm. By this method, the non-stationary degradation of each parameter is represented, and multiple monitoring parameters are incorporated, both contributing to the final prognostics. A case study shows that this approach enables satisfactory prediction evolution and achieves a markedly better prognosis of RUL.     

Spacecraft attitude/rate estimation using vector-aided GPSobservations

A sequential filtering algorithm is presented for spacecraft attitude and attitude-rate estimation from Global Positioning System (GPS) differential carrier phase measurements. A third-order, minimal-parameter method for solving the attitude matrix kinematic equation is used to parameterize the state of the filter, which renders the resulting estimator computationally efficient. Borrowing from tracking theory concepts, the angular acceleration is modeled as an exponentially autocorrelated stochastic process, thus avoiding the use of the uncertain spacecraft dynamic model. The new formulation facilitates the use of aiding vector observations in a unified filtering algorithm, which can enhance the robustness and accuracy of the method. Numerical examples are used to demonstrate the performance of the method     

基于RF-SVR的燃油计量装置性能衰退检测和剩余寿命估计方法

为了实现航空发动机燃油系统的安全状态监测和健康管理,开展了燃油系统性能衰退检测和剩余使用寿命估计方面的研究。以燃油系统燃油计量装置为例,分析了其主要的性能衰退模式,设计了基于电流-速度数据的健康指标(HIs)选取方案,并考虑环境及模型参数不确定性,进行模型不确定性仿真,基于健康数据与性能衰退数据间的马氏距离对部件性能衰退进行检测。提出了基于随机森林-支持向量回归(RF-SVR)的剩余使用寿命(RUL)估计方法,利用通过RF特征选择优化的SVR模型实现部件RUL估计。最后基于某型民用涡扇发动机机械液压模型仿真数据对该方法进行了验证,结果表明:该方法的性能衰退检测虚警率及漏报率低于2%,RUL估计误差低于3%,可为航空发动机燃油系统的预测性维护提供参考。      

Spacecraft formation-containment flying control with time-varying translational velocity

This paper investigates the problem of Spacecraft Formation-Containment Flying Control (SFCFC) when the desired translational velocity is time-varying. In SFCFC problem, there are multiple leader spacecraft and multiple follower spacecraft and SFCFC can be divided into leader spacecraft’s formation control and follower spacecraft’s containment control. First, under the condition that only a part of leader spacecraft can have access to the desired time-varying translational velocity, a velocity estimator is designed for each leader spacecraft. Secondly, based on the estimated translational velocity, a distributed formation control algorithm is designed for leader spacecraft to achieve the desired formation and move with the desired translational velocity simultaneously. Then, to ensure all follower spacecraft converge to the convex hull formed by the leader spacecraft, a distributed containment control algorithm is designed for follower spacecraft. Moreover, to reduce the dependence of the designed control algorithms on the graph information and increase system robustness, the control gains are changing adaptively and the parametric uncertainties are handled, respectively. Finally, simulation results are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the theoretical results.     

Neural network-based fault diagnosis for spacecraft with single-gimbal control moment gyros

This paper proposes a neural network-based fault diagnosis scheme to address the problem of fault isolation and estimation for the Single-Gimbal Control Moment Gyroscopes(SGCMGs) of spacecraft in a periodic orbit. To this end, a disturbance observer based on neural network is developed for active anti-disturbance, so as to improve the accuracy of fault diagnosis.The periodic disturbance on orbit can be decoupled with fault by resorting to the fitting and memory ability of neural network. Subsequ...     

基于电磁波三维结构向量的飞行器姿态估计

以电磁波三维空间结构向量为参照的飞行器姿态/航向测量研究，可弥补空间参照物缺乏，丰富空间飞行器姿态/航向测量工具。本文根据各缺损电磁矢量传感器姿态位置与接收信号之间的变化规律，建立飞行器载电磁矢量传感器阵列导向矢量。根据协同导航的多个信号空间谱和最大化，实现平台姿态/航向测量。飞行器多位置的多个传感器共同测量姿态可避免遮挡，获得更高姿态精度的同时拓展了系统的适用领域。接收电磁信息完备状态下，不需导航信号，测绘平稳的杂波就能作为姿态基准。仿真试验验证了姿态估计的有效性。     

On Attitude Estimation Schemes for Fine-Pointing Control

This paper studies single-axis equations of motion that are applicable to a spacecraft or to a space experiment pointing assembly whose motion has been perfectly isolated from the carrier vehicle. It considers four state estimators for implementation in the control loop for a stellar observation experiment. The first three estimators are very general and do not make use of input torque in their prediction models, while the proposed fourth estimator utilizes this information, It is shown via closed-loop covariance analysis that the best achievable pointing performance with the best of the first three estimators is limited to about 0.125 are-sec (rms) with the given rate-gyro and star-tracker inaccuracies. It is also shown that the fourth estimator has the capability of achieving a pointing performance far superior to the performance achievable using the first three estimators. The fourth estimator relies on the ability to accurately generate the desired control torque (i.e., low input noise).