Space weather in Japan

In Japan, Communications Research Laboratory engages in operational space environment information services as National Forecasting Center and Regional Warning Center of ISES. Data from local observations and data collected via internet from domestic and foreign institutes are used for the daily operational forecast. Fundamental research on space weather issues has been carried out at several institutes and universities, including STE Laboratory and NASDA. In this presentation, an overview of current space weather forecast operations and a system for information outreach in Japan will be presented. Current and future observation programs from ground-base and space will be also briefly reviewed.     

Space weather and commercial airlines

Space weather phenomena can effect many areas of commercial airline operations including avionics, communications and GPS navigation systems. Of particular importance at present is the recently introduced EU legislation requiring the monitoring of aircrew radiation exposure, including any variations at aircraft altitudes due to solar activity. With the introduction of new ultra-long-haul “over-the-pole” routes, “more-electric” aircraft in the future, and the increasing use of satellites in the operation, the need for a better understanding of the space weather impacts on future airline operations becomes all the more compelling. This paper will present the various space weather effects, some provisional results of an ongoing 3-year study to monitor cosmic radiation in aircraft, and conclude by summarising some of the identified key operational issues, which must be addressed, with the help of the science community, if the airlines want to benefit from the availability of space weather services.     

Coronal mass ejection detection using wavelets,curvelets and ridgelets: Applications for space weather monitoring

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are large-scale eruptions of plasma and magnetic field that can produce adverse space weather at Earth and other locations in the Heliosphere. Due to the intrinsic multiscale nature of features in coronagraph images, wavelet and multiscale image processing techniques are well suited to enhancing the visibility of CMEs and suppressing noise. However, wavelets are better suited to identifying point-like features, such as noise or background stars, than to enhancing the visibility of the curved form of a typical CME front. Higher order multiscale techniques, such as ridgelets and curvelets, were therefore explored to characterise the morphology (width, curvature) and kinematics (position, velocity, acceleration) of CMEs. Curvelets in particular were found to be well suited to characterising CME properties in a self-consistent manner. Curvelets are thus likely to be of benefit to autonomous monitoring of CME properties for space weather applications.     

Different space weather effects in anomalies of the high and low orbital satellites

Preliminary results of the EU INTAS Project 00810, which aims to improve the methods of safeguarding satellites in the Earth’s magnetosphere from the negative effects of the space environment, are presented. Anomaly data from the “Kosmos” series satellites in the period 1971–1999 are combined in one database, together with similar information on other spacecraft. This database contains, beyond the anomaly information, various characteristics of the space weather: geomagnetic activity indices (Ap, AE and Dst), fluxes and fluences of electrons and protons at different energies, high energy cosmic ray variations and other solar, interplanetary and solar wind data. A comparative analysis of the distribution of each of these parameters relative to satellite anomalies was carried out for the total number of anomalies (about 6000 events), and separately for high (5000 events) and low (about 800 events) altitude orbit satellites. No relation was found between low and high altitude satellite anomalies. Daily numbers of satellite anomalies, averaged by a superposed epoch method around sudden storm commencements and proton event onsets for high (>1500 km) and low (<1500 km) altitude orbits revealed a big difference in a behavior. Satellites were divided on several groups according to the orbital characteristics (altitude and inclination). The relation of satellite anomalies to the environmental parameters was found to be different for various orbits that should be taken into account under developing of the anomaly frequency models.     

基于GBR方法的Kp指数预报模型

地磁Kp指数是空间天气预警的重要指标, 也是研究太阳风–磁层耦合的关键参数. 采用梯度提升回归(GBR)算法和随机森林(RF)两种机器学习方法, 构建了以太阳风、行星际磁场参数、历史Kp值和太阳黑子数据为输入的3 h 地磁 Kp指数预报模型. 预报结果表明, 两种方法均可提前1 h预报地磁Kp指数, 预测结果与观测值之间的相关系数为0.90, 其中GBR方法在均方根误差上表现出更好的效果, 均方根误差为0.56. Kp指数预报模型在太阳活动周不同相位的预测结果存在差异, 在活动周下降阶段模型预测结果与观测数据的相关系数更高. 比较了不同地磁扰动下模型的预测情况, 相比中等磁暴和超强磁暴, 模型对强磁暴(6≤Kp<7)的预报准确度最高.     

COST 296 action results for space weather ionospheric monitoring and modelling

COST 296 Action refers to the project on Mitigation of Ionospheric Effects on Radio Systems (MIERS) in the framework of European Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST), which is one of the longest-running European instruments supporting cooperation among scientists and researchers across Europe. The main objective of the MIERS project has been to develop an increased knowledge of the effects imposed by the ionosphere on practical radio systems, and for the development and implementation of techniques to mitigate the harmful effects of the ionosphere on such systems. This paper highlights COST 296 Action results that have been achieved during its lifetime period of February 2005–February 2009 with emphasis on space weather ionospheric monitoring and modelling.     

Influence of Fast Global Variations of Solar Magnetic Fields on Space Weather in Cycle 23

It is established that the large-scale and global magnetic fields in the Sun's atmosphere do not change smoothly, and long-lasting periods of gradual variations are superseded by fast structural changes of the global magnetic field. Periods of fast global changes on the Sun are accompanied by anomalous manifestations in the interplanetary space and in the geomagnetic field. There is a regular recurrence of these periods in each cycle of solar activity, and the periods are characterized by enhanced flaring activity that reflects fast changes in magnetic structures. Is demonstrated, that the fast changes have essential influencing on a condition of space weather, as most strong geophysical disturbances are connected to sporadic phenomena on the Sun. An explanation has been offered for the origin of anomalous geomagnetic disturbances that are unidentifiable in traditionally used solar activity indices. Is shown, main physical mechanism that leads to fast variations of the magnetic fields in the Sun's atmosphere is the reconnection process.     

天基X射线掠入射式成像望远镜发展现状

阐述了太阳X射线成像观测在空间天气预报中的地位和作用,叙述了掠入射式X射线聚焦成像的基本原理,简要介绍了在轨成功运行的天体X射线成像望远镜和太阳X射线成像望远镜的基本设计和技术指标,并介绍了国内正开发研制的专门服务于空间天气预报的太阳X射线成像望远镜基本设计和主要特点．     

太阳极紫外多波段成像仪

在目前仪器特点和性能的基础上, 结合中国现有卫星特点和技术基础, 提出了一种新型太阳极紫外多波段成像仪, 采用小型化设计, 利用一台仪器实现对日冕和色球层4个不同波段的高分辨率成像, 不仅能有效利用卫星资源, 提高空间探测水平, 还能实现对日冕和色球的同时观测, 推动空间天气研究, 提高空间天气预报水平.     

Combining frequency and time domain models to forecast space weather

Space weather series incorporate several distinct components, cycles at multiple frequencies, irregular trends, and nonlinear variability. The cycles are stochastic, i.e., the amplitude varies over time. Similarly, the trend is stochastic: the slope and direction of trending change repeatedly. This study sets out a combined model using both frequency and time domain methods, in two stages. In the first stage, a frequency domain algorithm is estimated and forecasted. In the second stage, the forecast is used as an input in a neural network. The combined model also includes a term enabling the model to react inversely to large deviations between the actual values and forecast. The models are evaluated using two data sets, the hemispheric power data obtained from the Polar Orbiting Environment satellites, and the Aa geomagnetic index. All the series are at a daily resolution. Forecasting experiments are run over horizons of 1–7 days. The models are estimated using a moving window or adaptive approach. The combined model consistently achieves the most accurate results. Among single equation methods, the frequency domain model is more accurate for the geomagnetic index because it is able to capture the underlying cycles more effectively. In the hemispheric power series, the cycles are less pronounced, so that time domain methods are more accurate, except at very short horizons. Nevertheless, in both data sets, the combined model works well because the frequency domain algorithm captures cyclical behavior, while the neural net is better able to capture short-term dependence and trending.     

A geomagnetic activity forecast for improving the efficiency of aeromagnetic surveys in Greenland

In recent years several aeromagnetic surveys were carried out in Greenland and more will be carried out in the future. We describe some of the characteristics pertinent to surveys in Greenland and the problems faced and experiences made by the survey teams working there, with special emphasis on the west coast where most surveys were conducted. Both unfavorable terrestrial weather and space weather appear to complicate survey planning. We discuss possible options available to the survey teams for mitigating the adverse effect of part of the problems, namely survey data contamination by intense geomagnetic activity. The implementation of a prototype geomagnetic activity forecast service as an aid to planning survey flights is discussed in more detail. The forecast service was tested by an independent observer, and the performance of the scheme is evaluated by a subsequent comparison between forecast and actual measurements. The comparison rendered largely acceptable results, but their validity is limited by the fact that the two-month test interval was characterized by a mostly relatively quiet magnetic field.     

Changes in operational procedures to improve spaceflight experiments in plant biology in the European Modular Cultivation System

The microgravity environment aboard orbiting spacecraft has provided a unique laboratory to explore topics in basic plant biology as well as applied research on the use of plants in bioregenerative life support systems. Our group has utilized the European Modular Cultivation System (EMCS) aboard the International Space Station (ISS) to study plant growth, development, tropisms, and gene expression in a series of spaceflight experiments. The most current project performed on the ISS was termed Seedling Growth-1 (SG-1) which builds on the previous TROPI (for tropisms) experiments performed in 2006 and 2010. Major technical and operational changes in SG-1 (launched in March 2013) compared to the TROPI experiments include: (1) improvements in lighting conditions within the EMCS to optimize the environment for phototropism studies, (2) the use of infrared illumination to provide high-quality images of the seedlings, (3) modifications in procedures used in flight to improve the focus and overall quality of the images, and (4) changes in the atmospheric conditions in the EMCS incubator. In SG-1, a novel red-light-based phototropism in roots and hypocotyls of seedlings that was noted in TROPI was confirmed and now can be more precisely characterized based on the improvements in procedures. The lessons learned from sequential experiments in the TROPI hardware provide insights to other researchers developing space experiments in plant biology.     

First results of operational ionospheric dynamics prediction for the Brazilian Space Weather program

It is shown the development and preliminary results of operational ionosphere dynamics prediction system for the Brazilian Space Weather program. The system is based on the Sheffield University Plasmasphere–Ionosphere Model (SUPIM), a physics-based model computer code describing the distribution of ionization within the Earth mid to equatorial latitude ionosphere and plasmasphere, during geomagnetically quiet periods. The model outputs are given in a 2-dimensional plane aligned with Earth magnetic field lines, with fixed magnetic longitude coordinate. The code was adapted to provide the output in geographical coordinates. It was made referring to the Earth’s magnetic field as an eccentric dipole, using the approximation based on International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF-11). During the system operation, several simulation runs are performed at different longitudes. The original code would not be able to run all simulations serially in reasonable time. So, a parallel version for the code was developed for enhancing the performance. After preliminary tests, it was frequently observed code instability, when negative ion temperatures or concentrations prevented the code from continuing its processing. After a detailed analysis, it was verified that most of these problems occurred due to concentration estimation of simulation points located at high altitudes, typically over 4000 km of altitude. In order to force convergence, an artificial exponential decay for ion–neutral collisional frequency was used above mentioned altitudes. This approach shown no significant difference from original code output, but improved substantially the code stability. In order to make operational system even more stable, the initial altitude and initial ion concentration values used on exponential decay equation are changed when convergence is not achieved, within pre-defined values. When all code runs end, the longitude of every point is then compared with its original reference station longitude, and differences are compensated by changing the simulation point time slot, in a temporal adjustment optimization. Then, an approximate neighbor searching technique was developed to obtain the ion concentration values in a regularly spaced grid, using inverse distance weighting (IDW) interpolation. A 3D grid containing ion and electron concentrations is generated for every hour of simulated day. Its spatial resolution is 1° of latitude per 1° of longitude per 10 km of altitude. The vertical total electron content (VTEC) is calculated from the grid, and plotted in a geographic map. An important feature that was implemented in the system is the capacity of combining observational data and simulation outputs to obtain more appropriate initial conditions to the ionosphere prediction. Newtonian relaxation method was used for this data assimilation process, where ionosonde data from four different locations in South America was used to improve the system accuracy. The whole process runs every day and predicts the VTEC values for South America region with almost 24 h ahead.     

On the detection of anomalous seismo-ionospheric behavior in the presence of space weather stimuli for large earthquakes

Anomalous behavior of ionospheric total electron content (TEC) prior to earthquake has been observed in many studies. Evidence of such seismo-ionospheric coupling effects suggests that it is plausible to rely on TEC signatures for early earthquake warning. However, the detection of pre-earthquake TEC anomalies (PETA) has not been adopted in practice due to two pertinent issues. Firstly, the effects of space weather activity can affect TEC levels and cause anomalous behavior in the TEC. Usually arbitrary thresholds are set for space weather indices to eliminate TEC anomaly due to space weather effects. Secondly, the choice regarding moving time-window length used to characterise background variation of TEC within the statistical envelope approach has an effect on detection of PETA. While the rule-of-thumb in selecting the moving window length is to have a time window capable of capturing background variability and short-term fluctuations, the length of the time window used in the literature varies with little justification. In this study, a critical examination is conducted on the statistical envelope approach and in particular, to eliminate the effect of space weather activity without the use of arbitrary space indices to detect PETA. A two-part PETA identification procedure is proposed, consisting of wavelet analyses isolating non-earthquake TEC contributions, followed by the statistical envelope method using a moving window length standardized based on observed periodicities and statistical implications is suggested. The approach is tested on a database of 30 large earthquakes (M?≥?7.0). The proposed procedure shows that PETA can be detected prior to earthquakes at higher confidence levels without the need to separately check for space weather activity. More importantly, the procedure was able to detect PETA for studies where it was previously reported that PETA could not be detected or detected convincingly.     

太阳极紫外光谱仪无缝成像技术研究

传统极紫外成像光谱仪无法实时观测大范围的太阳活动.无缝成像技术使得光谱仪能够获得大视场范围内的太阳空间信息和光谱信息.通过无缝成像光谱仪成果分析,提出了一种改进的光学设计思路,并通过模拟数据重建证明其能够大幅提高多普勒速度反演的准确性,从而极大提高了观测数据的可信度.     

Depth dose measurements with the Liulin-5 experiment inside the spherical phantom of the MATROSHKA-R project onboard the International Space Station

The Liulin-5 experiment is a part of the international project MATROSHKA-R on the Russian segment of the ISS, which uses a tissue-equivalent spherical phantom equipped with a set of radiation detectors. The objective of the MATROSHKA-R project is to provide depth dose distribution of the radiation field inside the sphere in order to get more information on the distribution of dose in a human body. Liulin-5 is a charged particle telescope using three silicon detectors. It measures time resolved energy deposition spectra, linear energy transfer (LET) spectra, particle flux, and absorbed doses of electrons, protons and heavy ions, simultaneously at three depths along the radius of the phantom. Measurements during the minimum of the solar activity in cycle 23 show that the average absorbed daily doses at 40 mm depth in the phantom are between 180 μGy/day and 220 μGy/day. The absorbed doses at 165 mm depth in the phantom decrease by a factor of 1.6–1.8 compared to the doses at 40 mm depth due to the self-shielding of the phantom from trapped protons. The average dose equivalent at 40 mm depth is 590 ± 32 μSV/day and the galactic cosmic rays (GCR) contribute at least 70% of the total dose equivalent at that depth. Shown is that due to the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) trapped protons asymmetry and the direction of Liulin-5 lowest shielding zone the dose rates on ascending and descending nodes in SAA are different. The data obtained are compared to data from other radiation detectors on ISS.     

International Meridian Circle Program

The Earth is buffered from the ferocious onslaught of the solar wind by a thin layer of matter known as the atmosphere and geospace. This layer absorbs energy from irradiance and outburst from the Sun, as well as from disasters, transient phenomena and anthropogenic emissions originated from Earth. Through complicated physics, the absorbed energy changes the atmospheric and geospace state and sometimes gets re-released to power extreme events such as space weather. Taking place globally, these complicated processes cannot be understood unless they are studied globally. The Chinese scientists have proposed the International Meridian Circle Program (IMCP) to meet this demand. By operating nearly 1000 instruments encompassing all latitudes along with the 120°E-60°W longitudes, IMCP aims, for the first time, to construct comprehensive 3D data representation of the atmosphere and geospace on a global scale and empower interdisciplinary research to tackle key questions related to Earth's environment and climate change.     

Space Astronomy in China： 2006-2008

In 2006 to 2008,the main activities in Chinese space astronomy focus on:(1)undertaking some missions set by CNSA,like HXMT,SMESE,wso/vv,SST,KUAFU,and so on;(2)drawing up a long-term plan of Chinese space astronomy.This paper summarizes in brief all these activities.