Progress in space weather predictions and applications

The methods of today’s predictions of space weather and effects are so much more advanced and yesterday’s statistical methods are now replaced by integrated knowledge-based neuro-computing models and MHD methods. Within the ESA Space Weather Programme Study a real-time forecast service has been developed for space weather and effects. This prototype is now being implemented for specific users. Today’s applications are not only so many more but also so much more advanced and user-oriented. A scientist needs real-time predictions of a global index as input for an MHD model calculating the radiation dose for EVAs. A power company system operator needs a prediction of the local value of a geomagnetically induced current. A science tourist needs to know whether or not aurora will occur. Soon we might even be able to predict the tropospheric climate changes and weather caused by the space weather.     

Development of Operational Space Weather Prediction Models

In this report, we summarize the needs of space weather models, and recommend that developing operational prediction models, rather than transitioning from research to operation, is a more feasible and critical way for space weather services in the near future. Operational models for solar wind speed, geomagnetic indices, magnetopause, plasma sheet energetic electrons, inner boundary of ion plasma sheet, energetic electrons in outer radiation belt, and thermospheric density at low Earth orbit, have been developed and will be introduced briefly here. Their applications made a big progress in space weather services during the past two years in China.      

A Partially Orthogonal EnKF approach to atmospheric density estimation using orbital debris

A key requirement for accurate trajectory prediction and space situational awareness is knowledge of how non-conservative forces affect space object motion. These forces vary temporally and spatially, and are driven by the underlying behavior of space weather particularly in Low Earth Orbit (LEO). Existing trajectory prediction algorithms adjust space weather models based on calibration satellite observations. However, lack of sufficient data and mismodeling of non-conservative forces cause inaccuracies in space object motion prediction, especially for uncontrolled debris objects. The uncontrolled nature of debris objects makes them particularly sensitive to the variations in space weather. Our research takes advantage of this behavior by utilizing observations of debris objects to infer the space environment parameters influencing their motion.The hypothesis of this research is that it is possible to utilize debris objects as passive, indirect sensors of the space environment. We focus on estimating atmospheric density and its spatial variability to allow for more precise prediction of LEO object motion. The estimated density is parameterized as a grid of values, distributed by latitude and local sidereal time over a spherical shell encompassing Earth at a fixed altitude of 400 km. The position and velocity of each debris object are also estimated. A Partially Orthogonal Ensemble Kalman Filter (POEnKF) is used for assimilation of space object measurements to estimate density.For performance comparison, the scenario characteristics (number of objects, measurement cadence, etc.) are based on a sensor tasking campaign executed for the High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model project. The POEnKF analysis details spatial comparisons between the true and estimated density fields, and quantifies the improved accuracy in debris object motion predictions due to more accurate drag force models from density estimates. It is shown that there is an advantage to utilizing multiple debris objects instead of just one object. Although the work presented here explores the POEnKF performance when using information from only 16 debris objects, the research vision is to utilize information from all routinely observed debris objects. Overall, the filter demonstrates the ability to estimate density to within a threshold of accuracy dependent on measurement/sensor error. In the case of a geomagnetic storm, the filter is able to track the storm and provide more accurate density estimates than would be achieved using a simple exponential atmospheric density model or MSIS Atmospheric Model (when calm conditions are assumed).     

全球空间天气路线图及对中国的启示

随着科技的发展,空间天气对电力系统、通信导航系统和航天资产等遍布全球的技术基础设施的影响越来越深.需要加强对空间天气事件过程的理解,提升空间天气的预报能力,优化基础设施设计,从而减缓空间天气对社会造成的影响.基于这些需求,国际空间研究委员会(COSPAR)联合国际与日共存计划(ILWS)共同成立专家组,研究制定了全球2015-2025空间天气发展路线图.本文对该路线图进行介绍和解读,讨论该路线图对中国空间天气发展的启示.     

天基X射线掠入射式成像望远镜发展现状

阐述了太阳X射线成像观测在空间天气预报中的地位和作用，叙述了掠入射式X射线聚焦成像的基本原理，简要介绍了在轨成功运行的天体X射线成像望远镜和太阳X射线成像望远镜的基本设计和技术指标，并介绍了国内正开发研制的专门服务于空间天气预报的太阳X射线成像望远镜基本设计和主要特点．     

MONITORING OF ENERGETIC PARTICLE ENVIRONMENT INSIDE THE CHINA-BRAZIL EARTH RESOURCE SATELLITE

On 14 October 1999, the Chinese-Brazil earth resource satellite (CBERS-1) was launched in China. On board of the satellite there was an instrument designed at Peking University to detect the energetic particle radiation inside the satellite so the radiation fluxes of energetic particles in the cabin can be monitored continuously. Inside a satellite cabin, radiation environment consists of ether penetrated energetic particles or secondary radiation from satellite materials due to the interactions with primary cosmic rays.Purpose of the detectors are twofold, to monitor the particle radiation in the cabin and also to study the space radiation environment The data can be used to study the radiation environment and their effects on the electronics inside the satelhte cabin. On the other hand, the data are useful in study of geo-space energetic particle events such as solar proton events, particle precipitation and variations of the radiation belt since there should be some correlation between the radiation situation inside and outside the satellite.The instrument consists of two semi-conductor detectors for protons and electrons respectively. Each detector has two channels of energy ranges. They are 0.5-2MeV and ≥2MeV for electrons and 5-30MeV and 30-60MeV for protons. Counting rate for all channels are up to 104/(cm2@s)and power consumption is about 2.5 W. There are also the additional functions of CMOS TID (total integrated dose) effect and direct SEU monitoring. The data of CBMC was first sent back on Oct. 17 1999 and it's almost three years from then on. The detector has been working normally and the quality of data is good.The preliminary results of data analysis of CBMC not only reveal the effects of polar particle precipitation and radiation belt on radiation environment inside a satellite, but also show some important features of the geo-space energetic particle radiation.As one of the most important parameters of space weather, the energetic charged particles have great influences on space activities and ground tech nology. CBMC is perhaps the first long-term on-board special equipment to monitor the energetic particle radiation environment inside the satellite and the data it accnmulated are very useful in both satellite designing and space research.     

Applications and usage of the real-time Neutron Monitor Database

A high-time resolution Neutron Monitor Database (NMDB) has started to be realized in the frame of the Seventh Framework Programme of the European Commission. This database will include cosmic ray data from at least 18 neutron monitors distributed around the world and operated in real-time. The implementation of the NMDB will provide the opportunity for several research applications most of which will be realized in real-time mode. An important one will be the establishment of an Alert signal when dangerous solar cosmic ray particles are heading to the Earth, resulting into ground level enhancements effects registered by neutron monitors. Furthermore, on the basis of these events analysis, the mapping of all ground level enhancement features in near real-time mode will provide an overall picture of these phenomena and will be used as an input for the calculation of the ionization of the atmosphere. The latter will be useful together with other contributions to radiation dose calculations within the atmosphere at several altitudes and will reveal the absorbed doses during flights. Moreover, special algorithms for anisotropy and pitch angle distribution of solar cosmic rays, which have been developed over the years, will also be set online offering the advantage to give information about the conditions of the interplanetary space. All of the applications will serve the needs of the modern world which relies at space environment and will use the extensive network of neutron monitors as a multi-directional spectrographic detector. On top of which, the decreases of the cosmic ray intensity – known as Forbush decreases – will also be analyzed and a number of important parameters such as galactic cosmic ray anisotropy will be made available to the users of NMDB. A part of the NMDB project is also dedicated to the creation of a public outreach website with the scope to inform about cosmic rays and their possible effects on humans, technological systems and space-terrestrial environment. Therefore, NMDB will also stand as an informative gate on space research through neutron monitor’s data usage.     

Cancer risk above 1 Gy and the impact for space radiation protection

Analyses of the epidemiological data on the Japanese A-bomb survivors, who were exposed to γ-rays and neutrons, provide most current information on the dose–response of radiation-induced cancer. Since the dose span of main interest is usually between 0 and 1 Gy, for radiation protection purposes, the analysis of the A-bomb survivors is often focused on this range. However, estimates of cancer risk for doses larger than 1 Gy are becoming more important for long-term manned space missions. Therefore in this work, emphasis is placed on doses larger than 1 Gy with respect to radiation-induced solid cancer and leukemia mortality. The present analysis of the A-bomb survivors data was extended by including two extra high-dose categories and applying organ-averaged dose instead of the colon-weighted dose. In addition, since there are some recent indications for a high neutron dose contribution, the data were fitted separately for three different values for the relative biological effectiveness (RBE) of the neutrons (10, 35 and 100) and a variable RBE as a function of dose. The data were fitted using a linear and a linear-exponential dose–response relationship using a dose and dose-rate effectiveness factor (DDREF) of both one and two. The work presented here implies that the use of organ-averaged dose, a dose-dependent neutron RBE and the bending-over of the dose–response relationship for radiation-induced cancer could result in a reduction of radiation risk by around 50% above 1 Gy. This could impact radiation risk estimates for space crews on long-term mission above 500 days who might be exposed to doses above 1 Gy. The consequence of using a DDREF of one instead of two increases cancer risk by about 40% and would therefore balance the risk decrease described above.     

Characterization of the near Earth radiation environment by Liulin type spectrometers

Comprehensive study of the dose, flux and deposited energy spectra shape data obtained by Liulin type spectrometers on spacecraft (five different experiments) and aircraft since 2001 is performed with the aim of understanding how well these parameters can characterize the type of predominant particles and their energy in the near Earth radiation environment. Three different methods for characterisation of the incoming radiation from Liulin spectrometers are described. The results revealed that the most informative one is by the shape of the deposited energy spectra. Spectra generated by Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) protons and their secondaries are with linear falling shape in the coordinates deposited energy/deposited per channel dose rate. The position of the maximum of the deposited energy spectra inside the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) region depends on the incident energy of the incoming protons. Spectra generated by relativistic electrons in the outer radiation belt have a maximum in the first channels. For higher energy depositions these spectra are similar to the GCR spectra. Mixed radiation by protons and electrons and/or bremsstrahlung is characterized by spectra with 2 maxima. All type of spectra has a knee close to 6.2 MeV deposited energy, which correspond to the stopping energy of protons in the detector. Dose to flux ratio known also as specific dose is another high information parameter, which is given by experimentally obtained formulae [Heffner, J. Nuclear radiation and safety in space. M. Atomizdat. 115, 1971 (in Russian)] connecting the dose to flux ratio and the incident energy of the particles.     

Space weather and commercial airlines

Space weather phenomena can effect many areas of commercial airline operations including avionics, communications and GPS navigation systems. Of particular importance at present is the recently introduced EU legislation requiring the monitoring of aircrew radiation exposure, including any variations at aircraft altitudes due to solar activity. With the introduction of new ultra-long-haul “over-the-pole” routes, “more-electric” aircraft in the future, and the increasing use of satellites in the operation, the need for a better understanding of the space weather impacts on future airline operations becomes all the more compelling. This paper will present the various space weather effects, some provisional results of an ongoing 3-year study to monitor cosmic radiation in aircraft, and conclude by summarising some of the identified key operational issues, which must be addressed, with the help of the science community, if the airlines want to benefit from the availability of space weather services.     

Towards a scientific understanding of the risk from extreme space weather

Like all natural hazards, space weather exhibits occasional extreme events over timescales of decades to centuries. Historical events provoked much interest, and sometimes alarm, because bright aurora becomes visible at mid-latitudes. However, they had little economic impact because the major technologies of those eras were not sensitive to space weather. This is no longer true. The widespread adoption of advanced technological infrastructures over the past 40 years has created significant sensitivity. So these events now have the potential to disrupt those infrastructures – and thus have profound economic and societal impact. However, like all extreme hazards, such events are rare, so we have limited data on which to build our understanding of the events. This limitation is uniquely serious for space weather since it is a global phenomenon. Many other natural hazards (e.g. flash floods) are highly localised, so statistically significant datasets can be assembled by combining data from independent instances of the hazard recorded over a few decades. Such datasets are the foundation on which reliable risk assessment methodologies are built. But we have a single instance of space weather so we would have to make observations for many centuries in order to build a statistically significant dataset. We show that it is not practicable to assess the risk from extreme events using simple statistical methods. Instead we must exploit our knowledge of solar-terrestrial physics to find other ways to assess these risks. We discuss three alternative approaches: (a) use of proxy data, (b) studies of other solar systems, and (c) use of physics-based modelling. We note that the proxy data approach is already well-established as a technique for assessing the long-term risk from radiation storms, but does not yet provide any means to assess the risk from severe geomagnetic storms. This latter risk is more suited to the other approaches, but significant research is needed to make progress. We need to develop and expand techniques to monitoring key space weather features in other solar systems (stellar flares, radio emissions from planetary aurorae). And to make progress in modelling severe space weather, we need to focus on the physics that controls severe geomagnetic storms, e.g. how can dayside and tail reconnection be modulated to expand the region of open flux to envelop mid-latitudes?     

Space weather in Japan

In Japan, Communications Research Laboratory engages in operational space environment information services as National Forecasting Center and Regional Warning Center of ISES. Data from local observations and data collected via internet from domestic and foreign institutes are used for the daily operational forecast. Fundamental research on space weather issues has been carried out at several institutes and universities, including STE Laboratory and NASDA. In this presentation, an overview of current space weather forecast operations and a system for information outreach in Japan will be presented. Current and future observation programs from ground-base and space will be also briefly reviewed.     

A review of instruments and methods for dosimetry in space

Instruments and methods recently used for space radiation dosimetry are reviewed for the purposes of comparison and reference. Passive detection methods mentioned include track-etch, luminescent, nuclear emulsion, and metal foil detectors. These can provide a reliable source of data for all types of radiation, but often require processing that cannot occur in space. Experimental methods of LET determination using TLDs, such as the high temperature peak ratio (HTR) method, are also discussed. Portable readout passive detectors including Pille, MOSFET, and bubble detector systems provide a novel alternative to traditional passive detectors, but research is more limited and their widespread use has yet to be established. Active detectors including DOSTEL, CPDS, RRMD-III, TEPC, R-16, BBND, and the Liulin series are examined for technical details. These instruments allow the determination of dose in real-time, and some can determine LET of incident particles by measuring energy deposition over a known path-length, but size and power consumption limit their practical use for dosimetry. Improved neutron dosimetry and development of a small active or portable readout personnel dosimeter capable of accurate LET determination are important steps for managing the effects of long-term exposure to the space radiation environment.     

空间天气模式集成可视化演示软件设计

空间天气模式集成是空间天气预报业务化的基础, 空间天气模式集成可视化演示软件系统是其中重要的研究内容之一. 空间天气模式种类繁多, 要素多样, 模型复杂, 且各模式可视化形式及方法具有差异性. 本文综合当前中国空间天气模式的特点, 构建了一套空间天气模式集成可视化演示系统. 该系统兼容性好、可扩展性高, 能够集成当前中国空间天气中大多数模式. 讨论了空间数据管理方法, 基于Visual C++ 软件平台和OpenGL可视化软件模块,以动态加载方式初步实现了多个空间天气模式的可视化集成.      

商用器件的空间应用需求、现状及发展前景

随着微电子技术的飞速发展及空间任务对高性能需求的日益增强,现有的宇航级抗辐射器件和技术已经远远不能满足目前空间飞行器高性能系统的需求,使得高性能商用器件Commercial-Off-The-Shelf(COTS)在空间的应用成为可能．本文就空间任务对商用器件的需求进行了综述,阐述了空间飞行器使用商用器件存在的问题及面临的风险,介绍了国内外空间任务中商用器件应用的现状,以及我国在这一领域的差距,并对商用器件在空间应用中的发展前景进行了展望．     

Space Weather Service for Chinese Space Science Satellites

Strategic Priority Research Program on Space Science has gained remarkable achievements. Space Environment Prediction Center (SEPC) affiliated with the National Space Science Center (NSSC) has been providing space weather services and helps secure space missions. Presently, SEPC is capable to offer a variety of space weather services covering many phases of space science missions including planning, design, launch, and orbital operation. The service packages consist of space weather forecasts, warnings, and effect analysis that can be utilized to avoid potential space weather hazard or reduce the damage caused by space storms, space radiation exposure for example. Extensive solar storms that occurred over Chinese Ghost Festival (CGF) in September 2017 led to a large enhancement of the solar energetic particle flux at 1 AU, which affected the near Earth radiation environment and brought great threat to orbiting satellites. Based on the space weather service by SEPC, satellite ground support groups collaborating with the space Tracking, Telemetering and Command system (TT&C) team were able to take immediate measures to react to the CGF solar storm event.      

Active debris removal of multiple priority targets

Today’s space debris environment shows major concentrations of objects within distinct orbital regions for nearly all size regimes. The most critical region is found at orbital altitudes near 800 km with high declinations. Within this region many satellites are operated in so called sun-synchronous orbits (SSO). Among those, there are Earth observation, communication and weather satellites. Due to the orbital geometry in SSO, head-on encounters with relative velocities of about 15 km/s are most probable and would thus result in highly energetic collisions, which are often referred to as catastrophic collisions, leading to the complete fragmentation of the participating objects. So called feedback collisions can then be triggered by the newly generated fragments, thus leading to a further population increase in the affected orbital region. This effect is known as the Kessler syndrome.     

Space weather service activities and initiatives at LAMP (Argentinean Space Weather Laboratory group)

Since more than one decade ago, several institutions started to offer a large variety of Operative Space Weather (SWx) products. This is of major importance because Space Weather events can affect aviation communications, global positioning systems, grid electric power, satellite technologies, and human health in space. The scientific potential on solar-terrestrial physics in Argentina motivated the creation of an interdisciplinary Laboratory of Space Weather in Argentina. The Argentinean Space Weather Laboratory (in Spanish ‘Laboratorio Argentino de Meteorología del esPacio’, LAMP) was initiated in 2016, and it carries out daily monitoring of real-time information (space and ground-based instruments) on Space Weather. The information is synthesized on a weekly bulletin as a summary of the Space Weather conditions, and it is posted on a website (spaceweather.at.fcen.uba.ar). The analyzed information includes own data and of other centers that offer them publicly, and it is also analyzed and discussed later on, during monthly briefings. In particular, one of the regional products that is included in the briefing discussions and it was developed by LAMP in collaboration with INPE-EMBRACE, involves Vertical Total Electron Content (VTEC) maps in the Argentinean region. LAMP set up a Space Weather Laboratory in the Antarctic peninsula, in the Argentine Marambio base, where a Water Cherenkov radiation Detector (WCD) was installed during the Argentinean Antarctic campaign (January-March of 2019). This detector is the southern node of a Latin American Collaboration (LAGO, Latin American Giant Observatory), which is a network of WCDs installed throughout more than 10 Latin American countries.     

Athens Neutron Monitor Data Processing Center – ANMODAP Center

Cosmic ray measurements in Athens were initiated in November 2000 with a standard 6NM-64 neutron monitor. Within the last years an effort has been made in order to construct an effective database of neutron monitor (NM) and satellite data in real-time, regarding the necessities of space weather monitoring (Athens Neutron Monitor Data Processing Center – ANMODAP Center). The prospective goal of this network is to make possible the receiving of all data in real-time in close sequence from all servers around the globe. The graphical representation of all these data in real-time is available through the website of the station (http://cosray.phys.uoa.gr). Moreover, a second database that collects data with 1-min resolution operates in a parallel mode. The online services as a special ‘Alert’ algorithm for Ground Level Enhancements (GLEs) and some models created to analyze aspects of GLEs as the neutron monitor Basic Anisotropic Neutron Ground Level Enhancement (BANGLE) model and the Forbush Decreases (FORD) model as well, are presented. Moreover, a short account on work performed on the possible relationship between the geomagnetic activity level and the biological effects is given.     

Specification of the Earth’s plasmasphere with data assimilation

In this paper we report on initial work toward data assimilative modeling of the Earth’s plasmasphere. As the medium of propagation for waves which are responsible for acceleration and decay of the radiation belts, an accurate assimilative model of the plasmasphere is crucial for optimizing the accurate prediction of the radiation environments encountered by satellites. On longer time-scales the plasmasphere exhibits significant dynamics. Although these dynamics are modeled well by existing models, they require detailed global knowledge of magnetospheric configuration which is not always readily available. For that reason data assimilation can be expected to be an effective tool in improving the modeling accuracy of the plasmasphere. In this paper we demonstrate that a relatively modest number of measurements, combined with a simple data assimilation scheme, inspired by the ensemble Kalman filtering data assimilation technique does a good job of reproducing the overall structure of the plasmasphere including plume development. This raises hopes that data assimilation will be an effective method for accurately representing the configuration of the plasmasphere for space weather applications.