Development of Operational Space Weather Prediction Models

In this report, we summarize the needs of space weather models, and recommend that developing operational prediction models, rather than transitioning from research to operation, is a more feasible and critical way for space weather services in the near future. Operational models for solar wind speed, geomagnetic indices, magnetopause, plasma sheet energetic electrons, inner boundary of ion plasma sheet, energetic electrons in outer radiation belt, and thermospheric density at low Earth orbit, have been developed and will be introduced briefly here. Their applications made a big progress in space weather services during the past two years in China.      

天基X射线掠入射式成像望远镜发展现状

阐述了太阳X射线成像观测在空间天气预报中的地位和作用，叙述了掠入射式X射线聚焦成像的基本原理，简要介绍了在轨成功运行的天体X射线成像望远镜和太阳X射线成像望远镜的基本设计和技术指标，并介绍了国内正开发研制的专门服务于空间天气预报的太阳X射线成像望远镜基本设计和主要特点．     

Enhancement of solar wind low-energy energetic particles as precursor of geomagnetic disturbance in operational geomagnetic forecast

A study of the relationship between solar wind low-energy energetic particles using data from the Electron, Proton, and Alpha Monitor (EPAM) onboard the Advanced Compositional Explorer spacecraft (ACE) and geomagnetic activity using data from Canadian magnetic observatories in Canada’s polar cap, auroral zone, and subauroral zone was carried out for a period spanning 1997–2005. Full halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were used to gauge the initial particle enhancements and the subsequent geomagnetic activity. It was found that maximum geomagnetic activity is related to maximum particle enhancements in a non-linear fashion. Quadratic fit of the data results in expressions that can be easily used in an operational space weather setting to forecast geomagnetic disturbance quantitatively. A superposed epoch analysis shows increase in particle flux level starts hours before geomagnetic activity attains its peak, affirming the precursory nature of EPAM particles for the impending geomagnetic impact of CME. This can supplement the decision process in formulating geomagnetic warning after the launch of CME from the Sun but before the arrival of shock at Earth. The empirical relationships between solar wind low-energy energetic particles and geomagnetic activity revealed in this statistical study can be easily codified, and thus utilized in operational space weather forecast to appraise the geoeffectiveness of the CME and to provide a quantitative forecast for maximum geomagnetic activity in Canada’s polar cap, auroral zone, and subauroral zone after the occurrence of a CME.     

KuaFu Mission

The KuaFu mission-Space Storms, Aurora and Space Weather Explorer-is an "L1+Polar" triple satellite project composed of three spacecraft: KuaFu-A will be located at L1 and have instruments to observe solar EUV and FUV emissions, and white-light Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), and to measure radio waves, the local plasma and magnetic field,and high-energy particles. KuaFuB1 and KuaFu- B2 will bein polar orbits chosen to facilitate continuous 24 hours a day observation of the north polar Aurora Oval. The KuaFu mission is designed to observe the complete chain of disturbances from the solar atmosphere to geospace, including solar flares, CMEs, interplanetary clouds, shock waves, and their geo-effects, such as magnetospheric sub-storms and magnetic storms, and auroral activities. The mission may start at the next solar maximum (launch in about 2012), and with an initial mission lifetime of two to three years. KuaFu data will be used for the scientific study of space weather phenomena, and will be used for space weather monitoring and forecast purposes. The overall mission design, instrument complement, and incorporation of recent technologies will target new fundamental science, advance our understanding of the physical processes underlying space weather, and raise the standard of end-to-end monitoring of the Sun-Earth system.     

A geomagnetic activity forecast for improving the efficiency of aeromagnetic surveys in Greenland

In recent years several aeromagnetic surveys were carried out in Greenland and more will be carried out in the future. We describe some of the characteristics pertinent to surveys in Greenland and the problems faced and experiences made by the survey teams working there, with special emphasis on the west coast where most surveys were conducted. Both unfavorable terrestrial weather and space weather appear to complicate survey planning. We discuss possible options available to the survey teams for mitigating the adverse effect of part of the problems, namely survey data contamination by intense geomagnetic activity. The implementation of a prototype geomagnetic activity forecast service as an aid to planning survey flights is discussed in more detail. The forecast service was tested by an independent observer, and the performance of the scheme is evaluated by a subsequent comparison between forecast and actual measurements. The comparison rendered largely acceptable results, but their validity is limited by the fact that the two-month test interval was characterized by a mostly relatively quiet magnetic field.     

Forecast of recurrent geomagnetic storms

Long-term forecast of space weather allows in achieving a longer lead time for taking the necessary precautions against disturbances. Hence, there is a need for long-term forecasting of space weather. We studied the possibility for a long-term forecast of recurrent geomagnetic storms. Geomagnetic storms recur with an approximate 27-day period during the declining phase of a solar cycle. These disturbances are caused by the passage of corotating interaction regions, which are formed by interactions between the background slow-speed solar wind and high-speed solar wind streams from a coronal hole. In this study, we report on the performance of 27-day-ahead forecasts of the recurrent geomagnetic disturbances using Kp index. The methods of the forecasts are on the basis of persistence, autoregressive model, and categorical forecast using occurrence probability. The forecasts show better performance during the declining phase of a solar cycle than other phases. The categorical forecast shows the probability of detection (POD) more than 0.5 during the declining phase. Transition of the performance occurs sharply among the declining phases and other phases.     

Progress in space weather predictions and applications

The methods of today’s predictions of space weather and effects are so much more advanced and yesterday’s statistical methods are now replaced by integrated knowledge-based neuro-computing models and MHD methods. Within the ESA Space Weather Programme Study a real-time forecast service has been developed for space weather and effects. This prototype is now being implemented for specific users. Today’s applications are not only so many more but also so much more advanced and user-oriented. A scientist needs real-time predictions of a global index as input for an MHD model calculating the radiation dose for EVAs. A power company system operator needs a prediction of the local value of a geomagnetically induced current. A science tourist needs to know whether or not aurora will occur. Soon we might even be able to predict the tropospheric climate changes and weather caused by the space weather.     

Space weather and commercial airlines

Space weather phenomena can effect many areas of commercial airline operations including avionics, communications and GPS navigation systems. Of particular importance at present is the recently introduced EU legislation requiring the monitoring of aircrew radiation exposure, including any variations at aircraft altitudes due to solar activity. With the introduction of new ultra-long-haul “over-the-pole” routes, “more-electric” aircraft in the future, and the increasing use of satellites in the operation, the need for a better understanding of the space weather impacts on future airline operations becomes all the more compelling. This paper will present the various space weather effects, some provisional results of an ongoing 3-year study to monitor cosmic radiation in aircraft, and conclude by summarising some of the identified key operational issues, which must be addressed, with the help of the science community, if the airlines want to benefit from the availability of space weather services.     

Solar ring mission: Building a panorama of the Sun and inner-heliosphere

Solar Ring (SOR) is a proposed space science mission to monitor and study the Sun and inner heliosphere from a full 360° perspective in the ecliptic plane. It will deploy-three 120°-separated spacecraft on the 1-AU orbit. The first spacecraft, S1, locates 30° upstream of the Earth, the second, S2, 90° downstream, and the third, S3, completes the configuration. This design with necessary science instruments, e.g., the Doppler-velocity and vector magnetic field imager, wide-angle coronagraph, and in-situ instruments, will allow us to establish many unprecedented capabilities: (1) provide simultaneous Doppler-velocity observations of the whole solar surface to understand the deep interior, (2) provide vector magnetograms of the whole photosphere — the inner boundary of the solar atmosphere and heliosphere, (3) provide the information of the whole lifetime evolution of solar featured structures, and (4) provide the whole view of solar transients and space weather in the inner heliosphere. With these capabilities, Solar Ring mission aims to address outstanding questions about the origin of solar cycle, the origin of solar eruptions and the origin of extreme space weather events. The successful accomplishment of the mission will construct a panorama of the Sun and inner-heliosphere, and therefore advance our understanding of the star and the space environment that holds our life.     

空间天气模式集成可视化演示软件设计

空间天气模式集成是空间天气预报业务化的基础, 空间天气模式集成可视化演示软件系统是其中重要的研究内容之一. 空间天气模式种类繁多, 要素多样, 模型复杂, 且各模式可视化形式及方法具有差异性. 本文综合当前中国空间天气模式的特点, 构建了一套空间天气模式集成可视化演示系统. 该系统兼容性好、可扩展性高, 能够集成当前中国空间天气中大多数模式. 讨论了空间数据管理方法, 基于Visual C++ 软件平台和OpenGL可视化软件模块,以动态加载方式初步实现了多个空间天气模式的可视化集成.      

Applications and usage of the real-time Neutron Monitor Database

A high-time resolution Neutron Monitor Database (NMDB) has started to be realized in the frame of the Seventh Framework Programme of the European Commission. This database will include cosmic ray data from at least 18 neutron monitors distributed around the world and operated in real-time. The implementation of the NMDB will provide the opportunity for several research applications most of which will be realized in real-time mode. An important one will be the establishment of an Alert signal when dangerous solar cosmic ray particles are heading to the Earth, resulting into ground level enhancements effects registered by neutron monitors. Furthermore, on the basis of these events analysis, the mapping of all ground level enhancement features in near real-time mode will provide an overall picture of these phenomena and will be used as an input for the calculation of the ionization of the atmosphere. The latter will be useful together with other contributions to radiation dose calculations within the atmosphere at several altitudes and will reveal the absorbed doses during flights. Moreover, special algorithms for anisotropy and pitch angle distribution of solar cosmic rays, which have been developed over the years, will also be set online offering the advantage to give information about the conditions of the interplanetary space. All of the applications will serve the needs of the modern world which relies at space environment and will use the extensive network of neutron monitors as a multi-directional spectrographic detector. On top of which, the decreases of the cosmic ray intensity – known as Forbush decreases – will also be analyzed and a number of important parameters such as galactic cosmic ray anisotropy will be made available to the users of NMDB. A part of the NMDB project is also dedicated to the creation of a public outreach website with the scope to inform about cosmic rays and their possible effects on humans, technological systems and space-terrestrial environment. Therefore, NMDB will also stand as an informative gate on space research through neutron monitor’s data usage.     

Different space weather effects in anomalies of the high and low orbital satellites

Preliminary results of the EU INTAS Project 00810, which aims to improve the methods of safeguarding satellites in the Earth’s magnetosphere from the negative effects of the space environment, are presented. Anomaly data from the “Kosmos” series satellites in the period 1971–1999 are combined in one database, together with similar information on other spacecraft. This database contains, beyond the anomaly information, various characteristics of the space weather: geomagnetic activity indices (Ap, AE and Dst), fluxes and fluences of electrons and protons at different energies, high energy cosmic ray variations and other solar, interplanetary and solar wind data. A comparative analysis of the distribution of each of these parameters relative to satellite anomalies was carried out for the total number of anomalies (about 6000 events), and separately for high (5000 events) and low (about 800 events) altitude orbit satellites. No relation was found between low and high altitude satellite anomalies. Daily numbers of satellite anomalies, averaged by a superposed epoch method around sudden storm commencements and proton event onsets for high (>1500 km) and low (<1500 km) altitude orbits revealed a big difference in a behavior. Satellites were divided on several groups according to the orbital characteristics (altitude and inclination). The relation of satellite anomalies to the environmental parameters was found to be different for various orbits that should be taken into account under developing of the anomaly frequency models.     

空间物理学最新进展与展望

空间物理学是人类进入空间时代后迅速发展的一门新兴交叉学科，特别是进入新世纪后国内外都取得了辉煌的成就.本文简要介绍空间物理领域近年来取得的重要进展、重要成果、国内外发展趋势，以及未来发展的重点方向.      

The performance of KSC Fixation Tubes with RNALater for orbital experiments: A case study in ISS operations for molecular biology

Molecular biology experiments on the International Space Station (ISS) continue to face challenges of sample harvesting and sample return to earth for post flight analysis; however, the use of Kennedy Space Center Fixation Tubes filled with RNALater has proven to be a robust solution to many of these challenges. While it is clear that one direction of future spaceflight experimentation may be towards enhanced on-orbit analytical capabilities, the rapid progress of earth-bound analytical capacity dictates that facile return of molecular biology samples from the ISS will continue to be a mainstay of space life sciences research and flight operations. In this paper we present a case study of the successful performance of KFTs and RNALater over a broad set of operational conditions of ascent configuration, on-orbit experiment use, on-orbit storage and sample return configurations that are unique to ISS current operations and constraints. We also provide observations on performance limits and discuss deployment opportunities and scenarios that are consistent with continued successful ISS molecular biology experimentation.     

Introduction to Meridian Space Weather Monitoring Project

The Meridian Project is a ground- based network program to monitor solar-terrestrial space environment, which consists of a chain of ground-based observatories with multiple instruments including magnetometers, ionosondes, HF and VHF radar, Lidar, IPS monitors, sounding rockets etc. The chain is mainly located in the neighborhood of 120°E meridian, and is thus named the Meridian Project. It has officially been approved by the Chinese government and will be finished by 2009. This talk will give an overview of the Meridian Project and the proposed International Space Weather Meridian Circle Program.     

Space weather service activities and initiatives at LAMP (Argentinean Space Weather Laboratory group)

Since more than one decade ago, several institutions started to offer a large variety of Operative Space Weather (SWx) products. This is of major importance because Space Weather events can affect aviation communications, global positioning systems, grid electric power, satellite technologies, and human health in space. The scientific potential on solar-terrestrial physics in Argentina motivated the creation of an interdisciplinary Laboratory of Space Weather in Argentina. The Argentinean Space Weather Laboratory (in Spanish ‘Laboratorio Argentino de Meteorología del esPacio’, LAMP) was initiated in 2016, and it carries out daily monitoring of real-time information (space and ground-based instruments) on Space Weather. The information is synthesized on a weekly bulletin as a summary of the Space Weather conditions, and it is posted on a website (spaceweather.at.fcen.uba.ar). The analyzed information includes own data and of other centers that offer them publicly, and it is also analyzed and discussed later on, during monthly briefings. In particular, one of the regional products that is included in the briefing discussions and it was developed by LAMP in collaboration with INPE-EMBRACE, involves Vertical Total Electron Content (VTEC) maps in the Argentinean region. LAMP set up a Space Weather Laboratory in the Antarctic peninsula, in the Argentine Marambio base, where a Water Cherenkov radiation Detector (WCD) was installed during the Argentinean Antarctic campaign (January-March of 2019). This detector is the southern node of a Latin American Collaboration (LAGO, Latin American Giant Observatory), which is a network of WCDs installed throughout more than 10 Latin American countries.     

Synergies of Earth science and space exploration

A more flexible policy basis from which to manage our planet in the 21st century is desirable. As one contribution, we note that synergies between space exploration and the preservation of our habitat exist, and that protecting life on Earth requires similar concepts and information as investigations of life beyond the Earth, including the expansion of human presence in space. Instrumentation and data handling to observe both planetary objects and planet Earth are based on similar techniques. Moreover, while planetary surface operations are conducted under different conditions, the technology to probe the surface and subsurface of both the Earth and other planets requires similar tools, such as radar, seismometers, and drilling devices. The Earth observation community has developed some exemplary tools and has featured successful international cooperation in data handling and sharing that could be equally well applied to robotic planetary exploration. Here we propose a network involving both communities that will enable the interchange of scientific insights and the development of new policies and management strategies. Those tools can provide a vital forum through which the management of this planet can be assisted, and in which a new bridge between the Earth-centric and space-centric communities can be built.     

Athens Neutron Monitor Data Processing Center – ANMODAP Center

Cosmic ray measurements in Athens were initiated in November 2000 with a standard 6NM-64 neutron monitor. Within the last years an effort has been made in order to construct an effective database of neutron monitor (NM) and satellite data in real-time, regarding the necessities of space weather monitoring (Athens Neutron Monitor Data Processing Center – ANMODAP Center). The prospective goal of this network is to make possible the receiving of all data in real-time in close sequence from all servers around the globe. The graphical representation of all these data in real-time is available through the website of the station (http://cosray.phys.uoa.gr). Moreover, a second database that collects data with 1-min resolution operates in a parallel mode. The online services as a special ‘Alert’ algorithm for Ground Level Enhancements (GLEs) and some models created to analyze aspects of GLEs as the neutron monitor Basic Anisotropic Neutron Ground Level Enhancement (BANGLE) model and the Forbush Decreases (FORD) model as well, are presented. Moreover, a short account on work performed on the possible relationship between the geomagnetic activity level and the biological effects is given.