Space Environment Prediction for SZ-4 and SZ-5

The Space Environment Prediction Center (SEPC) of the Center for Space Science and Applied Research of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CSSAR, CAS)took on the mission of offering the space environment parameters which may be of use to the safety of manned spacecraft. In order to complete the space environment safety guarantee mission for SZ-4 and SZ-5, SEPC improved the space environment monitoring system, database system, prediction result display system, prediction implementation system, etc. For guaranteeing the safety of the airship and cosmonaut in the first manned SZ-5, flying experiment mission,SEPC developed the software for analyzing radiation dose and early-warning software for large debris collision with SZ-5. Three months before the flights of SZ-4 and SZ-5, SEPC began to predict the safe launch period in view of the space environment, and offered timely and valid reference opinions for selecting the safety period. Especially during the mission of SZ-5, SEPC analyzed the space high-energy environment in a pre-arranged orbit and abnormal orbit andevaluated the radiation dose which cosmonauts may encounter in space. The evaluation offered an important reference for cosmonaut safety and decisionmaking in the SZ-5 mission. The calculation of the distribution of large debris and the collision risk assessment at different orbit entry times for SZ-5 provided an important base for the superior department to make flight decisions.     

Space Weather Outreach: An informal education perspective

Informal science education institutions, such as science centers, play an important role in science education. They serve millions of people, including students and teachers. Within the last decade, many have tried to improve the public’s understanding of science and scientific research through informal education projects. The recent success of several space weather-related missions and research programs and the launch of the International Heliophysical Year (IHY) research and education programs make this an ideal time to inform the public about the importance and relevance of space weather to our understanding of heliophysical science. Communication efforts associated with space weather both benefit and are compromised by analogies to terrestrial weather. This paper summarizes the benefits and challenges of the terrestrial weather analogy using two exhibit evaluation studies. The paper also describes three components of the Space Science Institute’s Space Weather Outreach Program – Space Weather Center Website, Educator Workshops, and Small Exhibits – and how they can help to achieve the education goals of IHY.     

太阳活动突发过程对临近空间大气影响的模拟

空间天气对地球及近地空间具有重要影响,大的空间天气事件对中上层大气动力学和成分具有不同的影响。利用全大气耦合模式WACCM,针对太阳耀斑、太阳质子、地磁暴三类事件,以太阳活动平静期2015年5月10-14日的GEOS-5数据为模式背景场,通过F_10.7、离子产生率、Kp及Ap指数设置,分别模拟三类事件对临近空间大气温度、密度和臭氧的影响。结果表明耀斑事件在三类事件中对临近空间大气温度和密度的影响最为显著。平流层大气温度增加是由耀斑辐射增强引起平流层臭氧吸收紫外辐射发生的光化学反应所致,耀斑事件引起平流层和低热层温度增加约为2～3 K,低热层大气相对密度增加在6%以内;太阳质子事件及磁暴事件主要影响低热层,但太阳质子事件和磁暴事件对低热层温度扰动不大于1 K。     

Progress of Strategic Priority Program on Space Scienceormalsize

The most important all-round progress in China's Space Science in recent years is the official go-ahead of Strategic Priority Program (SPP) on Space Science in 2011, which marks China's space science has entered a new stage. SPP on Space Science includes 4 satellites (DAMPE, SJ-10, QUESS and HXMT), the Intensive Study of Future Space Science Missions, and the Advanced Research of Space Science Missions and Payloads. It is expected that the innovative breakthroughs will be achieved, and the great leaps of related high-technology will be driven through both independent space science missions and international cooperation. The implementation of the SPP on Space Science will enable the rapid development of China's space science endeavor, and contribute to the progress of human civilization.      

Progress of Strategic Priority Program on Space Science

The most important all-round progress in China's Space Science in recent years is the official go-ahead of Strategic Priority Program(SPP) on Space Science in 2011,which marks China's space science has entered a new stage.SPP on Space Science includes 4 satellites(DAMPE,SJ-10,QUESS and HXMT),the Intensive Study of Future Space Science Missions,and the Advanced Research of Space Science Missions and Payloads.It is expected that the innovative breakthroughs will be achieved,and the great leaps of related high-technology will be driven through both independent space science missions and international cooperation.The implementation of the SPP on Space Science will enable the rapid development of China's space science endeavor,and contribute to the progress of human civilization.     

Space weather and commercial airlines

Space weather phenomena can effect many areas of commercial airline operations including avionics, communications and GPS navigation systems. Of particular importance at present is the recently introduced EU legislation requiring the monitoring of aircrew radiation exposure, including any variations at aircraft altitudes due to solar activity. With the introduction of new ultra-long-haul “over-the-pole” routes, “more-electric” aircraft in the future, and the increasing use of satellites in the operation, the need for a better understanding of the space weather impacts on future airline operations becomes all the more compelling. This paper will present the various space weather effects, some provisional results of an ongoing 3-year study to monitor cosmic radiation in aircraft, and conclude by summarising some of the identified key operational issues, which must be addressed, with the help of the science community, if the airlines want to benefit from the availability of space weather services.     

Progress and Prospects of the Strategic Priority Program on Space Science

In May 2018, the second phase of the Strategic Priority Program on Space Science (SPP II) was officially approved by the Chinese Academy of Sciences, in view of the significant scientific achievements of the first phase of the Strategic Priority Program on Space Science (SPP I) which includes 4 space science missions:the Dark Matter Particle Explorer (DAMPE), ShiJian-10 (SJ-10), Quantum Experiments at Space Scale (QUESS) and Hard X-ray Modulation Telescope (HXMT). Aiming to address fundamental scientific questions, SPP II focuses on two major themes:How the universe and life originate and evolve and What is the relationship between the solar system and human beings. In areas that Chinese scientists have advantages, new space science missions including Graviational wave high-energy Electromagnetic Counterpart All-sky Monitor (GECAM), the Advanced space-based Solar Observatory (ASO-S), the Einstein Probe (EP), and Solar wind Magnetosphere Ionosphere Link Explorer (SMILE) have been approved in the framework of SPP II. This paper presents the research highlights of the SPP I, introduces the recent progress of SPP II, and puts forward the prospects for future development.      

The monitoring and prediction of solar particle events--an experience report.

The routine monitoring and prediction of solar proton events that may be a hazard to personnel and materials in space are a routine service of the Space Environment Services Center in Boulder, Colorado, U.S.A. The services provided are made available to the space centers in the United States for use in their operations. The real time monitoring consists primarily of Space Environment Monitors on both geosynchronous and polar orbiting weather satellites. The monitoring emphasizes proton fluxes but alpha particles, electrons, and in one case, heavier particles, are included. The predictions are of two types; a general outlook made 1 to 3 days in advance, and specific prediction of event size and probability of occurrence made after a solar flare occurs. The accuracy of the prediction made for solar cycle 21 are assessed.     

Strategic Priority Program on Space Science

In 1957, the launch of the first artificial satellite ushered in a new era for modern space science.The past 50 years' developments in China's space science have witnessed many major missions, and substantial progress has been achieved in space science study, exploration technology as well as experiment technology. Strategic Priority Program on Space Science was officially started in 2011. Through both self-developed space science missions and those with international cooperation,it is expected that the innovative breakthroughs will be realized, leapfrog development of related high-tech will be achieved to establish the important strategic status of space science in national development. To sum up, the implementation of the Strategic Priority Program on Space Science will definitely promote the rapid development of China's space science endeavor, making contributions to China's development and the progress of human civilization.      

Progress of Strategic Priority Program on Space Science

The Strategic Priority Program on Space Science in 2011-2017 (hereafter referred to as SPP I), which officially went ahead in 2011, marks that a new chapter of Chinese space endeavor has been opened. The 4 satellites, Wukong/DAMPE, SJ-10, Mozi/QUESS and Insight/HXMT, has been achieving promising scientific results since their launch, e.g., Wukong directly detected a break in the teraelectronvolt cosmic-ray spectrum of electrons and positrons. To enable the sustainable development of China's space science endeavor, the Strategic Priority Program Ⅱ on Space Science (hereafter referred to as SPP Ⅱ) was officially approved in late 2017. SPP Ⅱ includes 4 satellites-EP, ASO-S, SMILE and GECAM, Intensive Study of Future Space Science Missions, Advanced Research of Space Science Missions and Payloads, Space Science Mission Concept Research, and Data Analysis Research. Dedicated to exploring the unknown, the program is aiming to address scientific questions such as the origin and evolution of the universe and life, search for extraterrestrial life, and the impact of the Sun and the solar system on Earth and human development. Chinese space science community is committed to contributing to the progress of human civilization.      

全球空间天气路线图及对中国的启示

随着科技的发展,空间天气对电力系统、通信导航系统和航天资产等遍布全球的技术基础设施的影响越来越深.需要加强对空间天气事件过程的理解,提升空间天气的预报能力,优化基础设施设计,从而减缓空间天气对社会造成的影响.基于这些需求,国际空间研究委员会(COSPAR)联合国际与日共存计划(ILWS)共同成立专家组,研究制定了全球2015-2025空间天气发展路线图.本文对该路线图进行介绍和解读,讨论该路线图对中国空间天气发展的启示.     

Prediction and evaluation of solar particle events based on precursor information.

Protection from the radiation effects of solar particle events for deep space mission crews requires a warning system to observe solar flares and predict subsequent charged particle fluxes. Such a system relates precursor information observed in each flare to the intensity, delay, and duration of the subsequent Solar Particle Event (SPE) at other locations in the solar system. A warning system of this type is now in operation at the NOAA Space Environment Services Center in Boulder, Colorado for support of space missions. It has been used to predict flare particle fluxes at the earth for flares of Solar Cycle 22. The flare parameters used and the effectiveness of the current warning system, based on Solar Cycle 22 experience, are presented, with an examination of the shortcomings. Needed improvements to the system include more complete observations of solar activity, especially information on the occurrences of solar mass ejections; and consideration of the effects of propagation conditions in the solar corona and interplanetary medium. Requirements for solar observations and forecasting systems on board the spacecraft are discussed.     

Development of Operational Space Weather Prediction Models

In this report, we summarize the needs of space weather models, and recommend that developing operational prediction models, rather than transitioning from research to operation, is a more feasible and critical way for space weather services in the near future. Operational models for solar wind speed, geomagnetic indices, magnetopause, plasma sheet energetic electrons, inner boundary of ion plasma sheet, energetic electrons in outer radiation belt, and thermospheric density at low Earth orbit, have been developed and will be introduced briefly here. Their applications made a big progress in space weather services during the past two years in China.      

Prospects of Russian participation in the international LWS program

This report describes current and future solar-terrestrial space missions of the Russian Federal Space Agency. They are discussed in the context of the International Living With a Star activity aimed at consolidation of efforts in developing a balanced cooperative program of solar-terrestrial and space weather oriented research. We provide information on several missions that are at different stages of realization: solar observing – CORONAS-F, CORONAS-PHOTON, and INTERHELIOPROBE; and magnetospheric – RESONANCE, ROY, and INTERBALL-PROGNOZ.     

Overview of the Solar Polar Orbit Telescope Project for Space Weather Mission

The Solar Polar ORbit Telescope (SPORT) project for space weather mission has been under intensive scientific and engineering background studies since it was incorporated into the Chinese Space Science Strategic Pioneer Project in 2011.SPORT is designed to carry a suite of remote-sensing and in-situ instruments to observe Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs),energetic particles,solar high-latitude magnetism,and the fast solar wind from a polar orbit around the Sun. The first extended view of the polar regions of the Sun and the ecliptic enabled by SPORT will provide a unique opportunity to study CME propagation through the inner heliosphere,and the solar high-latitude magnetism giving rise to eruptions and the fast solar wind.Coordinated observations between SPORT and other spaceborne/ground-based facilities within the International Living With a Star (ILWS) framework can significantly enhance scientific output.SPORT is now competing for official selection and implementation during China's 13th Five-Year Plan period of 2016-2020.      

Space astronomy in China: 2008—2010

In 2008 to 2010, the main activities in Chinese space astronomy were focused on: fulfilling the long-term plan of Chinese space astronomy; initiating the long-term plan of Chinese space astronomy; undertaking some astronomical missions set by CNSA in ``Development Program of Space Science for 2006--2010'. This paper summarizes in brief all these activities.      

Space Solar Physics in China:2014—2016

The activities of Chinese space solar physics in 2014—2016 were mainly undertaken within the framework of Strategic Priority Program on Space Science, sponsored by CAS, which include:to accomplish the last version for the mid and long-term (2016—2030) plan of Chinese space solar physics;to subsidy a few of pre-study projects of space solar physics;to implement two intensive study projects, ASO-S and SPORT. This paper summarizes these activities briefly.      

第23太阳活动周太阳极紫外辐射与磁暴相关性分析

统计第23个太阳活动周内中等及以上强度（Dst_min<-50nT）的磁暴事件，线性拟合分析磁暴主相DDst_min和达到DDst_min前一个表征太阳极紫外辐射强度的F_10.7之间的相关性.结果表明:随着太阳极紫外辐射增强，DDst_min<-50nT的磁暴出现的总数增多，在弱、中等和强太阳极紫外辐射条件下，其数量分别为56，84和85；随着太阳极紫外辐射增强，强磁暴（-200nT ≤ Dst_min<-100nT）和大磁暴（Dst_min<-200nT）发生的数量和相对发生率呈增长趋势，尤其是大磁暴数目（1，4，12）和相对发生率（1.79%，4.76%，14.12%）明显呈增长趋势；大磁暴（|Dst_min|）与太阳极紫外辐射（F_10.7）之间存在中度正相关关系，其相关系数为0.532，并且主要体现在大磁暴（|Dst_min|）与强太阳极紫外辐射（F_10.7）之间的中度正相关性，其相关系数为0.582.大磁暴与强太阳极紫外辐射之间的相关性可为空间天气预报提供参考依据.