基于贝叶斯网络的航班延误传播分析

 由于机场航班之间存在前后衔接关系,每个航班的延误会波及到下游机场及其航班,因此需要一种有效手段来分析航班衔接时的延误传播。贝叶斯网络（BN）是一种有效的传播分析方法,从某个枢纽机场航班延误出发,对其关联机场的衔接航班的延误影响进行分析,提出了基于BN的航班延误传播模型。结合某航空公司实际数据,通过最大期望值算法对模型进行训练,给出了测试结果。实验表明,所提出的方法能有效地分析航班延误从局部到全局的传播。     

Empirical analysis of airport network and critical airports

Air transport network, or airport network, is a complex network involving numerous airports. Effective management of the air transport system requires an in-depth understanding of the roles of airports in the network. Whereas knowledge on air transport network properties has been improved greatly, methods to find critical airports in the network are still lacking. In this paper, we present methods to investigate network properties and to identify critical airports in the network. A novel network model is proposed with airports as nodes and the correlations between traffic flow of airports as edges. Spectral clustering algorithm is developed to classify airports. Spatial distribution characteristics and intraclass correlation of different categories of airports are carefully analyzed. The analyses based on the fluctuation trend of distance-correlation and power spectrum of time series are performed to examine the self-organized criticality of the network. The results indicate that there is one category of airports which dominates the self-organized critical state of the network. Six airports in this category are found to be the most important ones in the Chinese air transport network. The flights delay occurred in these six airports can propagate to the other airports, having huge impact on the operation characteristics of the entire network. The methods proposed here taking traffic dynamics into account are capable of identifying critical airports in the whole air transport network.     

基于空中交通密度的进场航班动态协同排序方法

为适应协同决策（CDM）需要，考虑空管、航空公司和机场的诉求，对进场航班动态协同排序问题进行了系统的研究。设计了一种进场航班动态排序方法，提出了一种时隙交换方法，建立了基于空中交通密度的进场航班协同排序模型，设计了精英保留的遗传算法和带精英策略的快速非支配排序遗传算法以求解所建模型，寻求进场航班动态协同排序的最优解。仿真结果表明，较基于滚动时域控制（RHC）方法，动态协同方法所得结果与排序开始时间无关，所需排序次数平均减少26.4%，且排序效率更高。较先到先服务（FCFS）方法，动态协同方法在高密度条件下各排序阶段最后一个进场航班的落地时间平均提前199.8 s；中密度条件下各排序阶段航班延误总时间平均减少29.9%，航班延误均衡性平均提高34.4%；低密度条件在航班正常率及航班延误公平性得到保证的前提下，满足时隙交换规则的排序阶段均增加了1种进场航班排序模式。所提方法可对进场航班进行优化排序，显著提高跑道容量，有效提升航班延误均衡性和航班延误公平性，契合协同决策理念，可实现三方协同排序。     

Depeaking – economic optimization of air traffic systems

More than half of all flights in and out of Frankfurt International Airport are conducted by Lufthansa airlines, as it is one of their two major hubs. The so called hub and spokes systems allow airlines to bundle major passenger flows via connecting flights across the in- and outbound traffic. The reliability of these transfer connections, and specifically the arrival punctuality at the hub airports are crucial to the economics of the daily operation.Since Frankfurt International Airport has lately been one of the most congested airports in Europe, delays (in particular arrival delays) have increased quite significantly throughout the last years. To compensate for additional queueing time in the arrival processes, the scheduled block times inbound Frankfurt were continuously adjusted upwardly keeping the arrival punctuality (and thereby the connection reliability) close to stable. The two disadvantages of this approach have been the decrease in aircraft productivity and over-deliveries in peak hours, which in turn induce either additional block time delay or ground delay programs inbound Frankfurt.This paper introduces an iterative stochastic-simulation approach that models the vicious circle of lengthening block times and increased over-deliveries. In a second step it quantifies the operational and economical effects of depeaking the schedule and illustrates the overall growth potentials for the depeaked operation of the airport. The schedule was successfully implemented in Frankfurt in summer 2004.     

上海机场中转旅客转机场优化方案

上海是中国大陆唯一拥有两个运营机场的城市,上海虹桥机场仅起降国内航班,上海浦东机场主要起降国际航班。由于虹桥、浦东两机场距离较远,目前尚无直达的地铁、磁悬浮等快捷交通工具,给跨机场中转旅客带来不便．同时也给城市交通环境带来压力。为此,提出一个简捷有效的优化方案来统筹上海到达的国内航班．使来上海作跨机场换乘的旅客总人次最少。同时开发了实施该方案的程序,并通过实例分析,验证了方案的有效性。应用该方案将有助于机场集团判断并安排抵达上海的国内航班所需降落的机场,达到方便旅客、缓解上海城市交通压力的目的。     

中欧枢纽机场航班协同放行需求与对策研究

随着中欧之间航空运输量的不断增加,中欧几个主要枢纽机场之间互飞的航班量增长迅速,从欧洲空中交通流量管理系统发展的经验来看,协调枢纽机场航班放行时间可以显著地减少空域拥挤,减少航班延误,提高航班的正常性和可预测性.尝试从分析中国北京首都机场等几大枢纽机场中欧之间航班飞行流量、起降时刻出发,从减少中国枢纽机场拥挤的角度分析中欧协同放行的必要性,从航班和机场信息共享、协同放行机制等角度分析其可行性,以期望为进一步加强中欧航空合作打下基础.由于时间和数据限制,研究无法从欧洲空管角度做出类似的分析.     

效益和公平性的多跑道航班调度精确算法研究

机场终端区航班拥堵延误现象日趋严重.机场管理者,一方面要减少航班总延迟成本,另一方面也要维持航空公司间竞争公平性.为多跑道航班协同调度问题建立双目标规划模型,为了精确求解优化问题的Pareto前沿,开发出epsilon约束算法.最后通过算例来说明模型的可行性和算法的有效性.利用数学规划理论建模并开发精确求解算法,为机场资源优化研究提供重要参考.     

基于航路耦合容量的协同多航路资源分配

针对中国当前航路空域拥挤日益严重的问题,分3个步骤进行解决:第1步,对空域管制单元之间存在的交通流耦合因素进行分析,建立基于空域管制单元耦合因素的航路容量模型;第2步,为反映不同类型航班对计划到达时间变动范围的不同接受程度,定义了航班的延误成本函数和改航成本函数;第3步,在上述两步的基础上,为充分利用可行的航路空域资源...     

基于混合遗传算法的航班串优化模型研究

分析了飞机排班调度中航班串的编制优化问题，并针对该问题建立优化模型，模型主要考虑了航班串编制时关于航站衔接的要求及过站时间的限制。同时，为求解所建立的模型，构造了一种基于精英选择策略的自适应遗传算法．通过使用实际航班数据对模型进行仿真研究，证明了模型及算法的可行性、     

多跑道航班进离场动态调度模型与算法

针对民航运输快速发展导致的航班延误频增现象,研究了多跑道航班进离场的动态调度问题。研究时段内航班的总延误成本最小和延误时间均衡为目标,综合考虑根据机型确定的航班进离场调度优先权和管制员负荷,建立多跑道航班进离场调度模型,利用遗传算法对模型进行仿真验证。仿真结果与先到先服务(FCFS)调度方式进行比较,采用遗传算法的航班进离场调度比FCFS的延误成本降低了45.07%,延误时间降低了37.90%,同时有效地均衡了航空公司的延误时间,保障了航空公司的公平性并提高了跑道系统容量,降低了管制员负荷。通过仿真验证了多跑道航班进离场动态调度策略具有较强的优势和可行性。     

涡桨飞机螺旋桨气动噪声特性试验研究

随着航空公司短途航线由涡扇发动机转向涡轮螺旋桨发动机,以及机场周边噪声污染的限制越来越严格,商用螺旋桨飞机的声学特征正成为关键的设计参数。为研究螺旋桨的气动性能和声学特性,以某型涡桨飞机六叶螺旋桨为研究对象,在北京航空航天大学沙河校区D5气动声学风洞开展实验研究。实验中对螺旋桨在固定桨叶角设置和旋转速度条件下不同来流风速的组合工况进行测量,以获取不同工况下螺旋桨的天平测力数据和远场声压信号,经过快速傅里叶变换得到来流速度对螺旋桨远场噪声的影响规律。实验结果表明:在较大来流条件下离散部分噪声能激发出更高阶的谐波噪声,各阶谐波噪声幅值随着谐波数增大逐渐降低;当风速较低时宽频噪声声压级增大,这是由于在低前进比条件下,叶片处于失速状态,拉力系数处于非线性段,与叶片表面复杂流场引起的湍流噪声增加有关。通过指向性分析可知,位于桨盘上游位置的总声压级水平大于桨盘下游位置的总声压级水平,主要是因为螺旋桨桨盘前后的相对速度发生了变化,导致了声传播距离的延迟和加速现象。     

首都机场飞行流量的灰色区间预测

首都机场是中国航班最为密集的机场之一,科学准确地预测飞行流量的发展趋势,是首都机场各级决策部门制定发展规划的重要依据。区间预测相对于以往的单一值预测而言,能更好地反应出飞行流量的长期发展趋势,为辅助决策提供了一定的选择余地。针对飞行流量的长期预测存在影响因素较多、相关数据不足等特点,提出了以GM(1,N)模型为基础的灰色区间预测新模型,该模型利用指数回归模型得出的地区GDP的长期预测值,预测出年飞行流量未来的取值区间。通过对首都机场年飞行流量的仿真计算,说明该模型能够较好地显示出飞行流量的发展趋势。     

Research of multi-path routing based on network coding in space information networks

A multi-path routing algorithm based on network coding is proposed for combating long propagation delay and high bit error rate of space information networks. On the basis of traditional multi-path routing, the algorithm uses a random linear network coding strategy to code data pack- ets. Code number is determined by the next hop link status and the number of current received packets sent by the upstream node together. The algorithm improves retransmission and cache mechanisms through using redundancy caused by network coding. Meanwhile, the algorithm also adopts the flow distribution strategy based on time delay to balance network load. Simulation results show that the proposed routing algorithm can effectively improve packet delivery rate, reduce packet delay, and enhance network performance.     

Measuring the resilience of an airport network

Resilience is the ability of a system to withstand and stay operational in the face of an unexpected disturbance or unpredicted changes. Recent studies on air transport system resilience focus on topology characteristics after the disturbance and measure the robustness of the network with respect to connectivity. The dynamic processes occurring at the node and link levels are often ignored. Here we analyze airport network resilience by considering both structural and dynamical aspects. We develop a simulation model to study the operational performance of the air transport system when airports operate at degraded capacity rather than completely shutting down. Our analyses show that the system deteriorates soon after disruptive events occur but returns to an acceptable level after a period of time. Static resilience of the airport network is captured by a phase transition in which a small change to airport capacity will result in a sharp change in system punctuality. After the phase transition point, decreasing airport capacity has little impact on system performance. Critical airports which have significant influence on the performance of whole system are identified, and we find that some of these cannot be detected based on the analysis of network structural indicators alone. Our work shows that air transport system’s resilience can be well understood by combining network science and operational dynamics.     

大型航空运输企业航班恢复系统(RM)应用研究

随着航空公司机队规模和运营航线的不断扩大,在发生大面积航班延误时,航空公司需要快速计算出最优的航班恢复方案。为了提高运行控制效率,探索一种优化控制的方法,根据经济效益、航班正常等不同的目标要求,计算出最优的运行方案,最终达到快速、高效地调配航班。分析了大型航空运输企业不正常航班恢复的主要场景,在此基础上筛选了制约航班恢复的关键约束条件,设计了航班恢复和校验的基本逻辑,通过应对台风处置的实际案例,验证了某大型航司和美国世博公司的航班恢复系统(RM)在实际案例应用中的效果,总结了该航班恢复系统的优点和存在的风险及短板。实践表明,该系统可缩短2 h航班运行恢复时间,平均每个受影响航班减少延误30 min,减少相应的成本2万元,提升整体航班正常率3%~5%。     

考虑优先级的交叉口航班汇聚排序问题研究

为了有效地利用航路资源,减少飞行延误总成本,建立了改进的航路交叉口汇聚排序模型。为加快求解速度,分析了影响航班延误成本的因素,给出了权重赋值表,改进了现有算法,并用FCFS算法与改进算法进行了算例分析。仿真结果表明,改进算法通过对交叉口航班各属性赋权值可有效进行优先等级划分,完成时隙分配和航班排序的快速计算。采用改进给出的优化排序策略可减少延误飞行的总成本,具有一定的实用性。     

Magnetic Signal Processing & Analysis for Airfield Traffic Surveillance

This paper presents an innovative system for airport surface surveillance based on a novel magnetic sensing technology. Ferromagnetic objects such as vehicle motors, aircraft engines, and landing gears are detected through their deformation of the Earth's magnetic field. Tests have shown that although the local changes of the Earth's magnetic field are extremely small, the proposed sensing technology is able to detect them reliably. The primary objective of the proposed approach is to provide a complementary surveillance system for existing and future Advanced Surface Movement Guidance and Control Systems (A-SMGCS) at large airports or a cost-effective surveillance solution for monitoring critical areas at medium and small airports. Unaffected by weather conditions, interference and shadowing effects, the system provides reliable position, velocity, and direction information without requiring any equipment in aircraft or ground vehicles. The outcome of a comprehensive market analysis is discussed and test results under real life conditions at two airports are evaluated analytically.     

延误航班停机坪作业运行控制研究

随着航班航次的增加，机场变得越来越繁忙．地面作业操作不当所导致的飞机地面事故日益增加：在介绍航班停机坪作业的基础上，分析了地面作业的特点，在此基础上，根据航班延误时在作业资源充足和不足情况下，研究了航班停机坪作业的一般方法。在资源充足情况下，航班延误的地面作业控制主要采用AOE方法，缩短关键路线的作业时间。而资源不足情况下，除了控制关键路线作业时间外，还要根据排序算法合理分配关键作业的资源，以实现缩短延误时间的目的。     

天气因素导致的航班延误问题研究

针对天气干扰下的分季节的航班过站衔接时间优化问题,在对各个航班的潜在延误风险等级评价的基础上,通过历史数据研究天气因素导致的航班延误概率分布,求得各航班波及延误的期望,以优化前后总的波及延误之差最大化为目标函数,分别建立分季节优化松约束模型和紧约束模型,对航班衔接过站时间进行优化.最后以国内某航空公司的航班数据为算例,进行验证并比较.研究结果表明,分季节的松约束模型和紧约束模型均比原计划减少了波及延误的时间,且松约束模型的优化效果更明显.     

地面管制阶段航空器等待策略研究

地面等待策略是空中交通流量管理的主要组成部分,有利于节约飞行成本,提高安全水平。建立了空中交通多目标地面等待策略的整数线性规划模型,模型包括所有航班的总等待时间最短和总等待费用最小两个优化指标,约束条件考虑了指定空域容量的限制和各航班等待时段上限的限制。考虑到该优化问题求解的计算复杂度,应用基于自然法则的模拟退火随机搜索优化算法来解决该问题。数值模拟算例表明了所建立数学模型的正确性和算法的可行性和有效性。