首都机场飞行流量的灰色区间预测

首都机场是中国航班最为密集的机场之一,科学准确地预测飞行流量的发展趋势,是首都机场各级决策部门制定发展规划的重要依据。区间预测相对于以往的单一值预测而言,能更好地反应出飞行流量的长期发展趋势,为辅助决策提供了一定的选择余地。针对飞行流量的长期预测存在影响因素较多、相关数据不足等特点,提出了以GM(1,N)模型为基础的灰色区间预测新模型,该模型利用指数回归模型得出的地区GDP的长期预测值,预测出年飞行流量未来的取值区间。通过对首都机场年飞行流量的仿真计算,说明该模型能够较好地显示出飞行流量的发展趋势。

Gray Interval Prediction of Air Traffic Flow of Capital Airport

The Capital Airport is one of the airports where there is the biggest density of flights.Scientific and accurate forecasts of air traffic flow are a basis for all levels of decision-making of the Capital Airport to make development strategies and planning.The zone prediction based on Gray Panel has better reflection in the developmental trend of air traffic flow according to the exact prediction.It also offers a room for decision-making.Because of the characteristics that a lot of influence factors and lack of the data of air traffic flow,in this paper,the gray interval prediction model which is based on the GM(1,N) model was proposed for the first time.According to the forecasting result of GDP of Beijing by the exponential regression model,the future value zone of air traffic flow of the Capital Airport is obtained.According to the simulation result,it explained that the model can show the developmental trend of air traffic flow better.