基于贝叶斯网络的航班延误传播分析

 由于机场航班之间存在前后衔接关系，每个航班的延误会波及到下游机场及其航班，因此需要一种有效手段来分析航班衔接时的延误传播。贝叶斯网络（BN）是一种有效的传播分析方法，从某个枢纽机场航班延误出发，对其关联机场的衔接航班的延误影响进行分析，提出了基于BN的航班延误传播模型。结合某航空公司实际数据，通过最大期望值算法对模型进行训练，给出了测试结果。实验表明，所提出的方法能有效地分析航班延误从局部到全局的传播。

Analysis of Flight Delay Propagation Using Bayesian Networks

As there exists a link between the scheduled flights,each scheduled flight delay can affect the downstream airport and its scheduled flight.Therefore methods are needed to investigate and visualize the propagation of delays for flight-connection at hub airports. The Bayesian network (BN) is an effective propagation analysis method. In this article,a flight delay propagation model is developed based on the BNs by analysis of a certain hub airport flight delays which will affect associated airports and connec...