Assessment of the consequences of the Fengyun-1C breakup in low Earth orbit

On 11 January 2007, the People’s Republic of China conducted a successful anti-satellite test against one of their defunct polar-orbiting weather satellites. The target satellite, called Fengyun-1C, had a mass of 880 kg and was orbiting at an altitude of about 863 km when the collision occurred. Struck by a direct-ascent interceptor at a speed of 9.36 km/s, the satellite disintegrated, spreading the cataloged fragments between 200 and 4000 km, with the highest concentration near the breakup height. By the end of April 2008, 2377 pieces of debris, including the original payload remnant, had officially been cataloged by the US Space Surveillance Network. Of these, nearly 1% had reentered the Earth’s atmosphere. This deliberate act is the largest debris-generating event on record, and its consequences will adversely affect circumterrestrial space for many years.     

基于相控阵雷达波束篱笆的空间碎片数量与分布估计方法

随着载人航天与空间站等航天活动的增多,不能有效防护、也无法定期跟踪和编目的小尺寸(尤其是1～10 cm)碎片的危害越来越受到关注,这些碎片信息的获取依赖于统计采样技术.针对简化的相控阵雷达波束篱笆空间碎片探测模式,提出了一种采用统计技术估计空间碎片总数量以及高度和倾角分布的方法.将碎片穿越波束篱笆的过程用Poisson分布来建模,根据观测时段内穿越波束篱笆目标的平均到达率及测量的轨道高度和倾角数据来估计给定轨道高度范围或倾角范围内碎片的数量,进而得到碎片的总数量以及碎片数量随轨道高度或倾角的分布.在获取雷达散射截面信息时,该方法还可用于估计碎片数量随尺寸的分布.通过仿真实验验证了该方法的有效性.      

SPACE DEBRIS RESEARCH IN CHINA(2000-2002)

Space debris is is referred to as the human made pollution in the space environment.Ever since the first launch of man made satellite in 1957, millions of kilograms of objects have been sent into the space. Large space objects that are traceable and cataloged by ground base telescope and radar reach around 9 000, becoming grave threat to the social development of human beings as well as astronautics.     

针对空间碎片捕获的绕飞轨道设计

地球轨道上日益增长的碎片云已引起各个航天国家的担忧,地球轨道上可编目的空间物体数量30多年内增长了2倍多,若不实施主动清除,碎片的数量将在未来200年内快速增长,给空间系统的安全带来极大的威胁。自然椭圆绕飞轨道可在目标附近长时间绕飞,可保证碎片捕获系统具有长时间的观测、捕获时间。文章提出通过设计绕飞轨道来实现捕获碎片的方案,介绍并分别推导了基于C-W方程和轨道根数两种方式绕飞轨道设计的方法。针对假想的捕获目标,基于轨道根数方法设计了5种脉冲变轨的轨道方案,并进行了相应的轨道算例仿真。仿真结果表明:该方案可适用于任意的初始相位差,具备一定的工程实现意义。     

SOCIT4 collisional-breakup test data analysis: With shape and materials characterization

In this paper we revisit the 1995 Kaman database of the SOCIT4 fragment characteristics with added analysis of a subset of the cataloged fragments from the test. This database was compiled from the last of a series of four hypervelocity impact tests conducted under a U.S. Department of Defense program in 1991–1992. This test targeted a flight-ready, U.S. Transit navigation satellite, yielding collision fragments in the size regime of sub-millimeter through tens of centimeters. Results in this database were used in the 1998 NASA Standard Breakup Model to represent characteristic length (size) and area-to-mass distributions of fragments smaller than 10 cm.     

近距耦合鸭式布局复杂涡系的干扰机理

在不同的迎角范围内,通过求解雷诺平均N-S(Navier-Stokes)方程模拟了雷诺数Re=2.4×10⁵下,鸭翼和机翼前缘后掠角均为50°的近距耦合鸭式布局简化模型的绕流结构,并与该模型的风洞测力和水洞流动显示实验结果进行了比较和验证,分析了鸭翼涡和机翼涡在不同迎角下的演变过程.根据鸭翼的不同作用效果,将迎角范围划分为3个区域,分析了各个迎角范围内的主要作用机制.鸭翼涡与机翼涡的演变和干扰过程虽然极为复杂,但可将其概括为诱导、卷绕和破裂作用.分析结果表明:中大迎角以后鸭翼涡都会对主翼涡产生有利影响,尤其在中大迎角下,卷绕起到了主导作用,鸭翼涡产生的增升效果也最好.     

Local orbital debris flux study in the geostationary ring

A local orbital debris flux analysis is performed in the geostationary (GEO) ring to investigate how frequently near-miss events occur for each longitude slot in the GEO ring. The current resident space object (RSO) environment at GEO is evaluated, and publicly-available two-line element (TLE) data are utilized in tandem with a geostationary torus configuration to simulate near-miss events incurred by the trackable RSO population at GEO. Methodology for determining near-miss events with this formulation is introduced, and the results of the analysis for a one-year time frame are provided to illustrate the need for active GEO remediation.     

The short gamma-ray burst – SGR giant flare connection

We review the notion that some extragalactic giant magnetar flares could be mistaken for short cosmic gamma-ray bursts. There are at least two general ways to approach this problem. One is statistical, while the other considers individual bursts. Both methods appear to agree that extragalactic flares can be, and indeed are, present in the short burst population, although the rate of such events remains uncertain. The statistical studies all suggest a rate of ∼1–15% in the short GRB sample.     

Modeling of “gradual” solar energeticparticle events using a stochastic differential equation method

We have modeled “gradual” solar energetic particle events through numerical simulations using a StochasticDifferential Equation (SDE) method. We consider that energetic particle events are roughly divided into two groups: (1) where the shock was driven by coronal mass ejections (CMEs) associated with large solar flares, and (2) where they have no related solar events apart from the CMEs. (The detailed classification of energetic particle events was discussed in our previous paper.) What we call “gradual” solar energetic particle events belong to the former group. Particles with energies greater than 10 MeV are observed within several hours after the occurrence of flares and CMEs in many gradual events. By applying the SDE method coupled with particle splitting to diffusive acceleration, we found that an injection of high energy particles is necessary for early enhancement of such a high-energy proton flux and that it should not be presumed that the solar wind particles act as the seed population.     

行星际激波传播至1AU的渡越时间预测

考虑了激波爆发源角宽度、能量、驱动时间、激波速度及其与背景太阳风之间的相互作用,利用流体力学扰动方程建立起一个激波扰动传播模型,用于研究激波从太阳传播到地球轨道附近(1 AU处)所需要的时间(渡越时间)问题.为印证扰动传播模型的适用性,利用1979-1989年间的27个激波事件,以及1997年2月到2000年1月间的68个激波事件,对激波到达地球轨道附近的渡越时间进行了预测,并将结果与STOA和ISPM预报模型结果进行了比较.实验表明,该模型在所有95个事件中,渡越时间相对误差小于10%的事件数占总事件数的25.26%;相对误差小于20%的占总事件数的50.53%;相对误差小于30%的占总事件的65.26%.      

太阳风动压脉冲结构与地磁急始关系研究

针对1994-2011年的363例地磁急始事件,基于太阳风动压脉冲（DPP）结构自动识别算法确定是否有相应的太阳风动压脉冲结构事件与其相关联,进而针对太阳风动压脉冲结构地磁急始关联事件进行统计分析研究.研究结果显示:91%的地磁急始事件与DPP事件相关联,53%的地磁急始事件与行星际激波相关联,这表明太阳风动压脉冲结构是引起地磁急始更普遍的原因;引起地磁急始的太阳风动压脉冲结构事件约70%发生在行星际日冕物质抛射、共转相互作用区以及行星际日冕物质抛射和/或共转相互作用区相互作用形成的复杂抛射物等大尺度太阳风扰动结构中,且其平均动压变化幅度为3.9nPa,强太阳风动压脉冲结构事件占全体事件的42%;地磁急始事件变化幅度与太阳风动压脉冲变化幅度以及上下游动压平方根差之间存在明显的相关关系,相关系数分别为0.79和0.82,并且行星际磁场南向时相关性更强;太阳风动压脉冲结构事件持续时间、传播速度、动压变化幅度对地磁急始事件的持续时间有一定影响,但这些参数与地磁急始事件的相关关系较弱.研究结果可为基于太阳风动压脉冲结构特征参数开展地磁急始预报提供研究基础.      

基于生成对抗网络的航天异常事件检测方法

航天环境复杂,技术难度大,风险高,安全可靠性要求苛刻。航天异常事件样本少,且难以获取,有针对性地开展异常事件检测（AED）很有必要。为预防航天事故,尽早发现可能导致故障的异常事件,深入研究了最新人工智能和生成对抗网络（GAN）技术,提出了一种基于生成对抗网络的航天异常事件检测方法。使用正生成对抗网络模拟生成正常事件样本,训练反生成对抗网络模拟生成异常事件样本,设计合理算法训练测试,计算输入事件与正生成对抗网络生成的模拟正常事件欧氏距离,以及输入事件与反生成对抗网络生成的模拟异常事件的欧氏距离差,实现对异常事件的精确检测。通过在美国国家标准与技术研究所数据库（MNIST）数据集全部使用正常数据训练,并对异常事件检测性能进行了试验验证,试验结果表明:在MNIST数据集下,精确率和召回率综合评价指标（F1）及精确率和召回率曲线下面积（PRC）等关键技术指标比变分自动编码器（VAE）方法相应指标性能至少分别提升了31%和11%。在真实环境下采集的模拟航天音频数据试验,异常事件检测性能良好,进一步证实了所提方法真实可用。      

第21～24太阳周4类空间天气事件爆发特征统计分析

对第21～24太阳周不同等级的太阳X射线耀斑事件、太阳质子事件、地磁暴事件及高能电子增强事件的爆发频次特征进行统计，结果表明:太阳周耀斑爆发的总数量与该太阳周的黑子数峰值呈正比，耀斑总数、X级耀斑事件数与峰值的相关系数分别为0.974，0.997；太阳质子事件主要发生在峰年前后1～2年，约占总发生次数的80%，峰值通量大于10pfu （1 pfu=1 cm-2·sr-1·s-1）的质子事件中，84%伴有耀斑爆发，并且主要伴随M或X级耀斑，少量伴随C级耀斑，峰值通量大于1000pfu的质子事件中，98%伴随M或X级耀斑，并且以X级耀斑为主；第21，22，23和24太阳周发生地磁暴最频繁的时间分别在1982，1991，2003年和2015年，分别滞后黑子数峰值时间3年、2年、2年和1年；72%的高能电子增强事件发生在太阳周下降期，24%的高能电子增强事件发生在太阳周上升期.      

行星际南向磁场事件与强磁暴

利用１９７８－１９８８年期间的太阳风和地磁资料对行星际磁场（ＩＭＦ）南向分量Ｂｓ事件（即Ｂｓ〉１０ｎＴ及其所驱动的错向电场ＶＢｓ〉５ｍＶ／ｍ、持续时间△Ｔ〉３ｈ的事件）与弱磁暴（Ｄｓｔ≤－１００ｎＴ）关系进行了分析。结果表明,１００％的Ｂｓ事件能能引起磁暴的发生,但其中只有８４％为强磁暴;强磁暴的发生都与较强的ＩＭＦ Ｂｓ活动密切相关,但只有６８％的强磁共伴随Ｂｓ事件而发生;Ｂｓ事件与强磁暴并不是     

基于解体事件的空间碎片轨道演化算法研究

针对航天器解体事件所生成的空间碎片的演化过程,进行了数学分析,确定了新生成的空间碎片的速度增量,在该增量作用下碎片轨道会发生变更,本文根据该增量得出了空间碎片在轨道变更后的轨道根数,分析了在大气阻力摄动作用下,空间碎片的数目和轨道分布的演化情况,给出了相关结果,结果表明此算法可行。     

A study on radio-loud interacting/non-interacting CMEs-associated SEPs and solar flares

We have established a data set of 58 major hybrid SEP events associated with meter-to-decahectometer wavelength (m-to-DH) type II bursts, solar flares, and radio-load CMEs during the period of 1997–2014. The main focus of our study is to address the following two questions: Does the interaction of CMEs play a role in the enhancement of SEP intensity? Is there any difference in the seed population, and parent eruptions in the SEP events with and without CME interactions? Hence, the sample of 58 events is classified into two sets: (i) 35 non-interacting-CME-associated SEP events; (ii) 23 interacting-CME-associated SEP events. All the characteristics of SEPs, their associated CMEs/flares and the relationships between them are statistically analyzed and compared. Some of the basic attributes and relative elemental abundances (Fe/O ratios) of the both the sets are also compared. The results indicate that the seed particles in non-interacting-CME-associated SEP events are mostly from solar wind/coronal materials. But in the case of interacting-CME-associated SEP events, it may be associated with both flare material from preceding flares and coronal materials from solar wind/preceding CMEs. The correlation studies reveal that there are clear correlations between logarithmic peak intensity of SEP events and properties of CMEs (space speed: cc?=?0.56) and solar flares (peak intensity: cc?=?0.40; integrated flux: cc?=?0.52) for non-interacting-CME-associated SEP events. But these correlations are absent for the interacting-CME-associated events. In addition, the results suggest that interaction of primary CMEs with their preceding CMEs plays an important role in the enhancement of peak intensity of SEPs at least for a set of m-to-DH type II bursts associated SEP events.     

Prediction tests by using “ISF” method for the geomagnetic disturbances

A so-called “ISF” prediction method for geomagnetic disturbances caused by solar wind storms blowing to the Earth is suggested. The method is based on a combined approach of solar activity, interplanetary scintillation (I) and geomagnetic disturbance observations during the period 1966–1982 together with the dynamics of solar wind storm propagation (S) and fuzzy mathematics (F). It has been used for prediction tests for 37 geomagnetic disturbance events during the descending solar activity phase 1984–1985, and was presented in 33rd COSPAR conference. Here, it has been improved by consideration of the three dimensional propagation characteristics of each event, the search for the best radio source and the influence of the southward components of interplanetary magnetic fields on the geomagnetic disturbances. It is used for prediction tests for 24 larger geomagnetic disturbance events that produced space anomalies during the period 1980–1999. The main results are: (1) for the onset time of the geomagnetic disturbance, the relative error between the observation, T_obs, and the prediction, T_pred, ΔT_pred/T_obs  10% for 45.8% of all events, 30% for 78.3% and >30% for only 21.7%; (2) for the magnetic disturbance magnitude, the relative error between the observation, ∑K_p,obs, and the prediction, ∑K_p,pred, Δ∑K_p,pred/∑K_p,obs  10% for 41.6% of all events, 30% for 79% and 45% for 100%. This shows that the prediction method described here has encouraging prospects for improving predictions of large geomagnetic disturbances in space weather events.     

太阳活动突发过程对临近空间大气影响的模拟

空间天气对地球及近地空间具有重要影响,大的空间天气事件对中上层大气动力学和成分具有不同的影响。利用全大气耦合模式WACCM,针对太阳耀斑、太阳质子、地磁暴三类事件,以太阳活动平静期2015年5月10-14日的GEOS-5数据为模式背景场,通过F_10.7、离子产生率、Kp及Ap指数设置,分别模拟三类事件对临近空间大气温度、密度和臭氧的影响。结果表明耀斑事件在三类事件中对临近空间大气温度和密度的影响最为显著。平流层大气温度增加是由耀斑辐射增强引起平流层臭氧吸收紫外辐射发生的光化学反应所致,耀斑事件引起平流层和低热层温度增加约为2～3 K,低热层大气相对密度增加在6%以内;太阳质子事件及磁暴事件主要影响低热层,但太阳质子事件和磁暴事件对低热层温度扰动不大于1 K。     

太阳风对流效应对CME渡越时间的影响

基于Gopalswamy预报日冕物质抛射（CME）渡越时间的经验模型,选取1996-2007年间52个与地磁效应Dst<-50nT相关的CME事件以及10个引起特大磁暴（Dst<-200nT）的CME事件,结合ACE卫星在1AU处的太阳风观测资料,分析背景太阳风对流效应对CME到达1AU处渡越时间预报的影响.对于52个CME事件,考虑太阳风对流效应的影响后,预报的标准偏差由16.5h降为11.4h,修正后的误差分布趋向于高斯分布,并且68%事件的预报误差小于15h.对于10个引起特大磁暴的CME事件,考虑太阳风对流效应的影响后,预报的标准偏差由10.6h降低到6.5h,其中6个事件的预报误差小于5h.研究结果表明,对于CME事件,考虑背景太阳风对流效应的影响可以降低预报CME渡越时间的标准偏差,说明太阳风对流效应对预报CME事件渡越时间具有重要作用.      

Statistical study of radio drifting pulsation structures with associated CMEs and other observations

Solar radio burst, especially the fine structures (FSs) and the drifting pulsation structures (DPSs), may be used as an important diagnostics tool to draw the evolution map of the flare loop in the initial phase of solar flares. In this work, 52 radio events were found accompanying with DPSs. They were all observed with the Solar Radio Spectrometers (0.625–7.6 GHz) of China during 1998–2004. Combining the radio observations with LASCO-C2, Goes-8 SXR, H_α, EUV and Trace observations, we analyzed all these events and obtained some statistic conclusions: First, 88% DPSs take place at the initial phase of the radio burst, and their rich spectrum characteristics are helpful to understand the events further. Second, 83% DPSs are associated with CMEs or ejection events, and all the events are accompanied by Goes SXR flare. Third, for CMEs and DPSs, which take the first step, there is no significant predominance of either of them. The relationship between the DPSs and CMEs is still not clear in this study because of the lack of spatial resolution in the centimeter–decimeter band. However, the EIT or Trace ejection happened during the onset/end time of DPSs. They are signatures of the initial phase of CMEs. Two events will be illustrated to explain this.