Large geomagnetic storms of extreme solar event periods in solar cycle 23

During extreme solar events such as big flares or/and energetic coronal mass ejections (CMEs) high energy particles are accelerated by the shocks formed in front of fast interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). The ICMEs (and their sheaths) also give rise to large geomagnetic storms which have significant effects on the Earth’s environment and human life. Around 14 solar cosmic ray ground level enhancement (GLE) events in solar cycle 23 we examined the cosmic ray variation, solar wind speed, ions density, interplanetary magnetic field, and geomagnetic disturbance storm time index (D_st). We found that all but one of GLEs are always followed by a geomagnetic storm with D_st  −50 nT within 1–5 days later. Most(10/14) geomagnetic storms have D_st index  −100  nT therefore generally belong to strong geomagnetic storms. This suggests that GLE event prediction of geomagnetic storms is 93% for moderate storms and 71% for large storms when geomagnetic storms preceded by GLEs. All D_st depressions are associated with cosmic ray decreases which occur nearly simultaneously with geomagnetic storms. We also investigated the interplanetary plasma features. Most geomagnetic storm correspond significant periods of southward B_z and in close to 80% of the cases that the B_z was first northward then turning southward after storm sudden commencement (SSC). Plasma flow speed, ion number density and interplanetary plasma temperature near 1 AU also have a peak at interplanetary shock arrival. Solar cause and energetic particle signatures of large geomagnetic storms and a possible prediction scheme are discussed.     

CME地磁扰动事件的模糊预报方法

以1997-2003年期间的73个日冕物质抛射(CME)激波扰动事件和模糊数学为基础,提出了一种预报地磁扰动的方法.该方法以CME事件爆发的日面经纬度、相关地磁扰动事件的渡越时间、地磁扰动指数、IPS观测的太阳风速度跃变量为基础,建立了预报CME地磁扰动事件的μθ,μφ,μT,μM,μ△v从属函数,考虑了CME初始速度对激波到达时间的影响.以这5个从属函数为基础并利用模糊数学对1996-2004年期间73个经行星际闪烁(IPS)观测认证的CME激波引起的地磁扰动事件进行了预报实验.实验结果表明,磁扰开始时间预报的相对误差,△Tpre/Tobs≤30%的事件占总事件数的91.78%,而△Tpre/Tobs＞30%的事件占总事件数的12.33%;磁扰幅度(∑Kp)大小的预报,其相对误差△∑Kp/∑Kpobs≤30%的事件占总事件数的60.27%,相对误差≥50%的事件占总事件数的12.33%.这表明该预报方法对空间灾害性事件地磁扰动的定量预报具有很大应用潜力.      

Interplanetary shocks and geomagnetic activity during solar maximum (2000) and solar minimum (1995–1996)

Plasma and magnetic field parameter variations through fast forward interplanetary shocks were correlated with the peak geomagnetic activity index Dst in a period from 0 to 3 days after the shock, during solar maximum (2000) and solar minimum (1995–1996). Solar wind speed (V) and total magnetic field (B_t) were the parameters with higher correlations with peak Dst index. The correlation coefficients were higher during solar minimum (r² = 56% for V and 39% for B_t) than during solar maximum (r² = 15% for V and 12% for B_t). A statistical distribution of geomagnetic activity levels following interplanetary shocks was obtained. It was observed that during solar maximum, 36% and 28% of interplanetary shocks were followed by intense (Dst  −100 nT) and moderate (−50  Dst < −100 nT) geomagnetic activity, whereas during solar minimum 13% and 33% of the shocks were followed by intense and moderate geomagnetic activity. It can be concluded that the upstream/downstream variations of V and B_t through the shocks were the parameters better correlated with geomagnetic activity level, and during solar maximum a higher relative number of interplanetary shocks can be followed by intense geomagnetic activity than during solar minimum. One can extrapolate, for forecasting goals, that during a whole solar cycle a shock has a probability of around 50% to be followed by intense/moderate geomagnetic activity.     

从属函数在地磁扰动预报研究中的初步应用

根据1966-1982年期间有关太阳耀斑、行星际激波和地磁扰动的观测资料而建立的从属函数,对1984-1985年间的行星际闪烁观测中能证认出的耀斑-激波所引起的地磁扰动作了预报试验。结果表明:(1)磁扰开始时间预报的相对误差,δT/T≤10%的事件数为20个,占总事件数的50%,δT/T≤20%的事件占总事件数的70%以上;(2)磁扰幅度(ΣKp)大小的预报,其相对误差δΣKp/ΣKp≤30%的事件数为32个,占总事件数的80%,而δΣKp/ΣKp≥60%仅占15%.本文方法显示了一定潜力,有待从聚类分析方面进一步深入。      

模糊聚类分析在耀斑-地磁扰动研究中的初步应用

本文运用模糊聚类分析的方法,对1975—1983年可证认出的210个耀斑-IPS激波事件进行了分析研究,给出了它们的聚类指标和模糊等价关系以及大、中、小三类耀斑-磁扰的聚类中心。初步研究结果表明:95％的耀斑-IPS激波会引起地磁扰动(∑Kp≥16);对持续1小时以上的二级耀斑和2小时以上的一级耀斑,以及多个射电源的IPS观测均出现50km/8以上的速度跳跃这类大耀斑-IPS激波事件进行模糊聚类磁扰强弱预报试验,其准确率可达80％;这种大耀斑-IPS激波事件所对应的地磁扰动变化范围很宽,从∑Kp≥12直到∑Kp≤54,这说明耀斑-激波在行星际空间的传播以及向地球的传输过程是十分复杂的。      

Storm-time formation of a relativistic electron belt and some relevant phenomena in other magnetospheric plasma domains

An empirical formula relating the strength of a storm given by its |Dst|_max with the L-coordinate of the peak of storm-injected relativistic electrons is one of a few well-confirmed quantitative relations found in the magneto-spheric physics. We successively extended a dataset of the formula’s basic storms with several events of high Dst-amplitude up to the highest observed |Dst|_max = 600 nT. Possible applying of the formula to the predicting of the ring-current plasma-pressure distribution and the lowest westward electrojet position for a storm are discussed. We have also analyzed the 2000–2001 years’ data on relativistic electrons from our instruments installed on EXPRESS-A (geosynchronous orbit; E_e = 0.8–6 MeV), Molniya-3 (h = 500 × 40 000 km, i = 63°; E_e = 0.8–5.5 MeV) and GLONASS (h = 20 000 km, i = 64°; E_e  l MeV) along with other correlated measurements: GOES series (E_e > 2 MeV), geomagnetic indices (Dst, AE, AL) and interplanetary parameters (solar wind, IMF). The goal is to investigate which outer conditions are most responsible for the high/low output of the storm-injected relativistic electrons. For the geosynchronous orbit, two factors are found as the necessary condition of the highest electron output: high and long-lasting substorm activity on a storm recovery phase and high velocity of solar wind. On the contrary, extremely low substorm activity surely observed during whole the storm recovery phase constitutes a sufficient condition of the non-increased after-storm electron intensity. For the first time found cases of the increased after-storm electron intensity observed at the inner L-shells with no simultaneously seen increase in the geosynchronous distances are presented.     

The dark matter halo structure of “fossil” groups candidates

We investigated properties of four isolated giant elliptical galaxies with extended X-ray halo using ASCA data. The derived size of X-ray halo, X-ray luminosity, and gravitational mass of the dark halo are unusually large those of X-ray halo of a single galaxy, but are typical for X-ray halos of groups and poor clusters of galaxies. The measured temperatures and abundances of the X-ray halo gas in these galaxies are also similar to those of the groups and poor clusters. Based on these results we identified these galaxies as “isolated X-ray overluminous elliptical galaxy” (IOLEG). The radial profiles of dark halo in these objects were derived from X-ray data. It is found that some are similar to those of compact groups while others are the same as those of normal ellipticals. The dark halos of lOLEGs are thus indistinguishable from those of groups (and poor clusters), which appears to be consistent with a widely believed idea that lOLEGs are a product of dynamical evolution of a compact group. However, mass-to-light ratios of IOLEGs (M₂₀₀/L_B  100–1000) are far greater than those of Hickson compact groups M₂₀₀/L_B  40–60). Since it is hard to consider that total optical luminosity of a compact group decreases by an order of magnitude in the course of dynamical evolution, such difference in the observed mass-to-light ratio between IOLEGs and Hickson compact groups strongly suggests that most IOLEGs have not evolved from compact groups which are observed at present.     

A first step towards proton flux forecasting

We present a preliminary version of a potential tool for real time proton flux prediction which provides proton flux profiles and cumulative fluence profiles at 0.5 and 2 MeV of solar energetic particle events, from their onset up to the arrival of the interplanetary shock at the spacecraft position (located at 1 or 0.4 AU). Based on the proton transportation model by Lario et al. [Lario, D., Sanahuja, B., Heras, A.M. Energetic particle events: efficiency of interplanetary shocks as 50 keV E < 100 MeV proton accelerators. Astrophys. J. 509, 415–434, 1998] and the magnetohydrodynamic shock propagation model of Wu et al. [Wu, S.T., Dryer, M., Han, S.M. Non-planar MHD model for solar flare-generated disturbances in the Heliospheric equatorial plane. Sol. Phys. 84, 395–418, 1983], we have generated a database containing “synthetic” profiles of the proton fluxes and cumulative fluences of 384 solar energetic particle events. We are currently validating the applicability of this code for space weather forecasting by comparing the resulting “synthetic” flux profiles with those of several real events.     

Classification of solar wind structures and intense geomagnetic storm alarms with self-organizing maps

Intense geomagnetic storms (D_st < −100 nT) usually occur when a large interplanetary duskward-electric field (with Ey > 5 mV m⁻¹) lasts for more than 3 h. In this article, a self-organizing map (SOM) neural network is used to recognize different patterns in the temporal variation of hourly averaged Ey data and to predict intense storms. The input parameters of SOM are the hourly averaged Ey data over 3 h. The output layer of the SOM has a total of 400 neurons. The hourly Ey data are calculated from solar wind data, which are provided by NSSDC OMNIWeb and ACE spacecraft and contain information on 143 intense storms and a fair number of moderate storms, weak storms and quiet periods between September 3, 1966 and June 30, 2002. Our results show that SOM is able to classify solar wind structures and therefore to give timely intense storm alarms. In our SOM, 21 neurons out of 400 are identified to be closely associated with the intense storms and they successfully predict 134 intense storms out of the 143 ones selected. In particular, there are 14 neurons for which, if one or more of them are present, the occurrence probability of intense storms is about 90%. In addition, several of these 14 neurons can predict big magnetic storm (D_st  −180 nT). In summary, our method achieves high accuracy in predicting intense geomagnetic storms and could be applied in space environment prediction.     

第23和24太阳活动周高纬地磁感应电流分布特性

基于高纬度芬兰Mäntsälä地区近两个太阳活动周期（1999—2017年）天然气传输管道的地磁感应电流（GIC，I_GIC）观测数据，统计研究了GIC扰动的分布特征以及强GIC扰动与磁暴和地磁亚暴的相关性.研究发现:95.83%时间段的GIC强度分布在0～1A之间.定义:若某个时间段|I_GIC|_max> 1A，则认为发生GIC扰动；|I_GIC|_max>10A，则认为发生强GIC扰动事件.GIC扰动在磁地方时夜侧附近发生的概率最高，这主要与地磁亚暴发生期间电离层电流最剧烈的变化发生在磁地方时夜侧附近有关；强GIC扰动经常爆发式出现，且都发生在磁暴期间，但大多数磁暴并不伴随强GIC扰动事件发生.磁暴急始驱动的强GIC扰动事件较少，由磁层压缩引起地磁场突然增强驱动的强GIC扰动事件持续时间较短；强GIC扰动事件主要发生在磁暴主相和恢复相，由环电流变化驱动的强GIC扰动事件一般持续时间较长且强度较大.      

Radio-scintillation observations of interplanetary disturbances

Recent developments in the studies of interplanetary disturbances by scintillation (IPS) techniques are briefly reviewed. The turbulent post-shock region of an interplanetary disturbance produces transient enhancements in the scintillation level and the flow speed in many cases. An empirical method to determine three-dimensional angular distribution of propagation speed of the disturbance on the basis of IPS measurements of post-shock flow speeds is applied to 17 events which took place in 1978–1981. Among them, four representative examples including two events which were associated with disappearing solar filaments are described in detail. Several disturbances had oblate configurations; the latitudinal extent is smaller than the longitudinal extent. On an average, the angular distribution of propagation speed at 1 AU heliocentric distance is quasi-isotropic over a longitudinal range of 100° centered at the normal of relevant solar phenomenon. The net excess mass and energy in an interplanetary disturbance associated with a disappearing solar filament can be comparable to those of an interplanetary disturbance associated with a large solar flare.     

Different space weather effects in anomalies of the high and low orbital satellites

Preliminary results of the EU INTAS Project 00810, which aims to improve the methods of safeguarding satellites in the Earth’s magnetosphere from the negative effects of the space environment, are presented. Anomaly data from the “Kosmos” series satellites in the period 1971–1999 are combined in one database, together with similar information on other spacecraft. This database contains, beyond the anomaly information, various characteristics of the space weather: geomagnetic activity indices (Ap, AE and Dst), fluxes and fluences of electrons and protons at different energies, high energy cosmic ray variations and other solar, interplanetary and solar wind data. A comparative analysis of the distribution of each of these parameters relative to satellite anomalies was carried out for the total number of anomalies (about 6000 events), and separately for high (5000 events) and low (about 800 events) altitude orbit satellites. No relation was found between low and high altitude satellite anomalies. Daily numbers of satellite anomalies, averaged by a superposed epoch method around sudden storm commencements and proton event onsets for high (>1500 km) and low (<1500 km) altitude orbits revealed a big difference in a behavior. Satellites were divided on several groups according to the orbital characteristics (altitude and inclination). The relation of satellite anomalies to the environmental parameters was found to be different for various orbits that should be taken into account under developing of the anomaly frequency models.     

Numerical simulations of the radiance from the comet 46P/Wirtanen in the various configurations of the measurements during “Rosetta” mission

The work we present deals with the spectrometric measurements of VIRTIS instrument of the Comet P/Wirtanen planned for the Rosetta mission. This spectrometer can monitor (VIRTIS M channel: 0.250μm – 0.980μm; Δκ=20cm⁻¹; 0.980 – 5.0 μm; Δκ = 5cm⁻¹; VIRTIS H channel: 2.0 μm – 5.0 μm; Δκ=2cm⁻¹) the nucleus and the coma in order to provide a general picture of coma's composition, the production of gas and dust, the relationship of coma production to surface composition and the structure and variation of mineralogy of the nucleus surface. During the mission the observation conditions of the spectroscopic investigation change due to different relative positions spacecraft/comet, and to the different illumination conditions of the surface at various distances of the comet to the Sun. The nucleus surface is continuously modified by the ice sublimation accompanied by gas and dust emission. Consequently the surface also its spectrophotometric properties changes and their monitoring can give a new insight. The important role of simulations is to predict the results of measurements in various experimental condition what, in the future, can help in interpretation of the measured data.

In this paper the first results of our simulation the radiance from the comet in the 0.25–5.0μm spectral range at two distances from the Sun (1AU and 3AU) are shown. The distance between the Rosetta orbiter and the nucleus surface as well as the sun zenith angles are taken into account according to the Rosetta mission phases. In fact the surface and coma properties vary along the comet orbit, and should be taken into account in our calculations. The optical parameters of the dust on the surface (e.g. reflectance) and in the coma (e.g. Q_ext) were calculated from optical constants of possible comet analogues. The thermodynamic parameters of the comet are taken from the models of comet evolution. Through this kind of modelling it is possible to identify the surface characteristics in spectra of the radiation from the surface of nucleus transmitted through the coma loaded with dust and gases.

Even if the “Rosetta mission” is postponed, with the consequence of a target change, we think that our idea and the method used for the simulations can be useful also for the new Rosetta target - the comet 67P/Churyumov Gerasimenko.     

行星际日冕物质抛射地磁效应研究的支持向量机方法初步研究

行星际日冕物质抛射（Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection,ICME）与地球磁层相互作用并带来地磁暴等地磁扰动.从Richardson和Cane提供的近地球ICME列表中筛选出ICME事件集,基于ICME扰动期间的行星际等离子体与磁场数据提取出特征.通过计算各特征的费舍尔分值（Fisher Score）,对这些特征进行选择,发现行星际磁场南北向分量持续时间小于-10nT且激波等扰动所带来的ICME扰动开始时,太阳风速度的增量等特征与ICME事件的地磁效应密切相关.这与现有的传统统计研究结果一致.以这些特征为基础,训练得到的径向基函数支持向量机能够以0.78±0.08的准确率判断ICME事件是否会产生中等及以上强度的地磁暴（Dst ≤-50nT）.      

异常SSC事件的行星际原因分析

磁暴急始(SSC)是强烈太阳风动压或行星际激波与磁层相互作用的结果.通常SSC事件的上升时间在4～10 min,我们把上升时间超过15 min的SSC事件称为异常SSC事件.本文利用地磁SYM-H指数鉴别出了5个有地磁观测历史以来发生的上升时间大于15 min的异常SSC事件,并利用Wind,ACE,IMP 8,Goes,Geotail多点卫星太阳风观测数据和地磁观测数据,分析了异常SSC事件的行星际原因.结果表明,异常SSC事件通常都是强烈行星际扰动引起的,5个异常SSC事件有4个对应于行星际激波,有3个对应于多步太阳风动压跃变,有1个对应于行星际电场大幅度变化;由行星际激波产生的异常SSC事件,其上升时间依赖于行星际激波的方向,方向相对于日地连线越偏,上升时间越长;异常SSC事件上升时间与行星际磁场方向关系不明显.      

太阳风动压脉冲结构与地磁急始关系研究

针对1994-2011年的363例地磁急始事件,基于太阳风动压脉冲（DPP）结构自动识别算法确定是否有相应的太阳风动压脉冲结构事件与其相关联,进而针对太阳风动压脉冲结构地磁急始关联事件进行统计分析研究.研究结果显示:91%的地磁急始事件与DPP事件相关联,53%的地磁急始事件与行星际激波相关联,这表明太阳风动压脉冲结构是引起地磁急始更普遍的原因;引起地磁急始的太阳风动压脉冲结构事件约70%发生在行星际日冕物质抛射、共转相互作用区以及行星际日冕物质抛射和/或共转相互作用区相互作用形成的复杂抛射物等大尺度太阳风扰动结构中,且其平均动压变化幅度为3.9nPa,强太阳风动压脉冲结构事件占全体事件的42%;地磁急始事件变化幅度与太阳风动压脉冲变化幅度以及上下游动压平方根差之间存在明显的相关关系,相关系数分别为0.79和0.82,并且行星际磁场南向时相关性更强;太阳风动压脉冲结构事件持续时间、传播速度、动压变化幅度对地磁急始事件的持续时间有一定影响,但这些参数与地磁急始事件的相关关系较弱.研究结果可为基于太阳风动压脉冲结构特征参数开展地磁急始预报提供研究基础.      

太阳风对流效应对CME渡越时间的影响

基于Gopalswamy预报日冕物质抛射（CME）渡越时间的经验模型,选取1996-2007年间52个与地磁效应Dst<-50nT相关的CME事件以及10个引起特大磁暴（Dst<-200nT）的CME事件,结合ACE卫星在1AU处的太阳风观测资料,分析背景太阳风对流效应对CME到达1AU处渡越时间预报的影响.对于52个CME事件,考虑太阳风对流效应的影响后,预报的标准偏差由16.5h降为11.4h,修正后的误差分布趋向于高斯分布,并且68%事件的预报误差小于15h.对于10个引起特大磁暴的CME事件,考虑太阳风对流效应的影响后,预报的标准偏差由10.6h降低到6.5h,其中6个事件的预报误差小于5h.研究结果表明,对于CME事件,考虑背景太阳风对流效应的影响可以降低预报CME渡越时间的标准偏差,说明太阳风对流效应对预报CME事件渡越时间具有重要作用.      

Propagation of interplanetary shocks into the Earth’s magnetosphere

This paper is devoted to the study of propagation of disturbances caused by interplanetary shocks (IPS) through the Earth’s magnetosphere. Using simultaneous observations of various fast forward shocks by different satellites in the solar wind, magnetosheath and magnetosphere from 1995 till 2002, we traced the interplanetary shocks into the Earth’s magnetosphere, we calculated the velocity of their propagation into the Earth’s magnetosphere and analyzed fronts of the disturbances. From the onset of disturbances at different satellites in the magnetosphere we obtained speed values ranging from 500 to 1300 km/s in the direction along the IP shock normal, that is in a general agreement with results of previous numerical MHD simulations. The paper discusses in detail a sequence of two events on November 9th, 2002. For the two cases we estimated the propagation speed of the IP shock caused disturbance between the dayside and nightside magnetosphere to be 590 km/s and 714–741 km/s, respectively. We partially attributed this increase to higher Alfven speed in the outer magnetosphere due to the compression of the magnetosphere as a consequence of the first event, and partially to the faster and stronger driving interplanetary shock. High-time resolution GOES magnetic field data revealed a complex structure of the compressional wave fronts at the dayside geosynchronous orbit during these events, with initial very steep parts (10 s). We discuss a few possible mechanisms of such steep front formation in the paper.     

Research Progress of Solar Corona and Interplanetary Physics in China: 2010-2012

The scientific objective of solar corona and interplanetary research is the understanding of the various phenomena related to solar activities and their effects on the space environments of the Earth. Great progress has been made in the study of solar corona and interplanetary physics by the Chinese space physics community during the past years. This paper will give a brief report about the latest progress of the corona and interplanetary research in China during the years of 2010?2012. The paper can be divided into the following parts: solar corona and solar wind, CMEICME, magnetic reconnection, energetic particles, space plasma, space weather numerical modeling by 3D SIP-CESE MHD model, space weather prediction methods, and proposed missions. They constitute the abundant content of study for the complicated phenomena that originate from the solar corona, propagate in interplanetary space, and produce geomagnetic disturbances. All these progresses are acquired by the Chinese space physicists, either independently or through international collaborations.      

Energetic particle signatures of geoeffective coronal mass ejections

We have studied statistically associations of moderate and intense geomagnetic storms with coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and energetic particle events. The goal was to identify specific energetic particle signatures, which could be used to improve the predictions of the geoeffectiveness of full and partial halo CMEs. Protons in the range 1–110 MeV from the ERNE experiment onboard SOHO are used in the analysis. The study covers the time period from August 1996 to July 2000. We demonstrate the feasibility of energetic particle observations as an additional source of information in evaluating the geoeffectiveness of full and partial halo CMEs. Based on the observed onset times of solar energetic particle (SEP) events and energetic storm particle (ESP) events, we derive a proxy for the transit times of shocks driven by the interplanetary counterparts of coronal mass ejections from the Sun to the Earth. For a limited number of geomagnetic storms which can be associated to both SEP and ESP signatures, we found that this transit time correlates with the strength of geomagnetic storms.