Classification of solar wind structures and intense geomagnetic storm alarms with self-organizing maps

Intense geomagnetic storms (D_st < −100 nT) usually occur when a large interplanetary duskward-electric field (with Ey > 5 mV m⁻¹) lasts for more than 3 h. In this article, a self-organizing map (SOM) neural network is used to recognize different patterns in the temporal variation of hourly averaged Ey data and to predict intense storms. The input parameters of SOM are the hourly averaged Ey data over 3 h. The output layer of the SOM has a total of 400 neurons. The hourly Ey data are calculated from solar wind data, which are provided by NSSDC OMNIWeb and ACE spacecraft and contain information on 143 intense storms and a fair number of moderate storms, weak storms and quiet periods between September 3, 1966 and June 30, 2002. Our results show that SOM is able to classify solar wind structures and therefore to give timely intense storm alarms. In our SOM, 21 neurons out of 400 are identified to be closely associated with the intense storms and they successfully predict 134 intense storms out of the 143 ones selected. In particular, there are 14 neurons for which, if one or more of them are present, the occurrence probability of intense storms is about 90%. In addition, several of these 14 neurons can predict big magnetic storm (D_st  −180 nT). In summary, our method achieves high accuracy in predicting intense geomagnetic storms and could be applied in space environment prediction.     

Interplanetary shocks and geomagnetic activity during solar maximum (2000) and solar minimum (1995–1996)

Plasma and magnetic field parameter variations through fast forward interplanetary shocks were correlated with the peak geomagnetic activity index Dst in a period from 0 to 3 days after the shock, during solar maximum (2000) and solar minimum (1995–1996). Solar wind speed (V) and total magnetic field (B_t) were the parameters with higher correlations with peak Dst index. The correlation coefficients were higher during solar minimum (r² = 56% for V and 39% for B_t) than during solar maximum (r² = 15% for V and 12% for B_t). A statistical distribution of geomagnetic activity levels following interplanetary shocks was obtained. It was observed that during solar maximum, 36% and 28% of interplanetary shocks were followed by intense (Dst  −100 nT) and moderate (−50  Dst < −100 nT) geomagnetic activity, whereas during solar minimum 13% and 33% of the shocks were followed by intense and moderate geomagnetic activity. It can be concluded that the upstream/downstream variations of V and B_t through the shocks were the parameters better correlated with geomagnetic activity level, and during solar maximum a higher relative number of interplanetary shocks can be followed by intense geomagnetic activity than during solar minimum. One can extrapolate, for forecasting goals, that during a whole solar cycle a shock has a probability of around 50% to be followed by intense/moderate geomagnetic activity.     

Solar and interplanetary precursors of geomagnetic storms in solar cycle 23

Estimating the magnetic storm effectiveness of solar and associated interplanetary phenomena is of practical importance for space weather modelling and prediction. This article presents results of a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the probable causes of geomagnetic storms during the 11-year period of solar cycle 23: 1996–2006. Potential solar causes of 229 magnetic storms (Dst ? −50 nT) were investigated with a particular focus on halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs). A 5-day time window prior to the storm onset was considered to track backward the Sun’s eruptions of halo CMEs using the SOHO/LASCO CMEs catalogue list. Solar and interplanetary (IP) properties associated with halo CMEs were investigated and correlated to the resulting geomagnetic storms (GMS). In addition, a comparative analysis between full and partial halo CME-driven storms is established. The results obtained show that about 83% of intense storms (Dst ? −100 nT) were associated with halo CMEs. For moderate storms (−100 nT < Dst ? −50 nT), only 54% had halo CME background, while the remaining 46% were assumed to be associated with corotating interaction regions (CIRs) or undetected frontside CMEs. It was observed in this study that intense storms were mostly associated with full halo CMEs, while partial halo CMEs were generally followed by moderate storms. This analysis indicates that up to 86% of intense storms were associated with interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) at 1 AU, as compared to moderate storms with only 44% of ICME association. Many other quantitative results are presented in this paper, providing an estimate of solar and IP precursor properties of GMS within an average 11-year solar activity cycle. The results of this study constitute a key step towards improving space weather modelling and prediction.     

用银河宇宙线判定几个引起特大磁暴CME的运动方向

利用位于南北极尖区位置的McMurdo和Thule台站的宇宙线强度的观测数据，分析了几个引起特大磁暴CME的来向．分析结果表明，所选的与4个特大磁暴相关的CME基本是朝正对磁层顶的方向运动并与磁层作用的．通过对引起第23周两个特大磁暴的CME特征分析对照，发现CME的来向是影响磁暴强弱的一个因素．同样条件下，运动方向偏向地球一侧的CME引起的磁暴比正对地球的CME引起的磁暴要弱。     

Response of the low latitude geomagnetic field to the major proton event of November 2001

A major solar flare eruption occurred at 16:20 UT on 4 November 2001, followed by strong solar radiation storm and proton event recorded by the SOHO and other interplanetary satellites. Coronal mass ejection associated with the flare event triggered an interplanetary shock, which impacted the geomagnetic field after about 33 h. The shock impact was quite intense to produce a SSC magnitude of 80 nT in the low latitude ground magnetic records followed by sharp and deep main phase (Dst −300 nT) in the first stage, following the density (N_p) enhancement. High time resolution digital magnetic field data from the equatorial and low latitude stations in India are analyzed to study the influence of various IP parameters on the intensity and duration of the magnetic storm. A double step storm was found to be in progress caused by the multiple injections. During the period of recovery, after a period of 8 h, a third stage of depression in the ground magnetic field was set in, which corresponded to the southward directed Bz. The energy transfer processes associated with the event is presented.     

Prediction tests by using “ISF” method for the geomagnetic disturbances

A so-called “ISF” prediction method for geomagnetic disturbances caused by solar wind storms blowing to the Earth is suggested. The method is based on a combined approach of solar activity, interplanetary scintillation (I) and geomagnetic disturbance observations during the period 1966–1982 together with the dynamics of solar wind storm propagation (S) and fuzzy mathematics (F). It has been used for prediction tests for 37 geomagnetic disturbance events during the descending solar activity phase 1984–1985, and was presented in 33rd COSPAR conference. Here, it has been improved by consideration of the three dimensional propagation characteristics of each event, the search for the best radio source and the influence of the southward components of interplanetary magnetic fields on the geomagnetic disturbances. It is used for prediction tests for 24 larger geomagnetic disturbance events that produced space anomalies during the period 1980–1999. The main results are: (1) for the onset time of the geomagnetic disturbance, the relative error between the observation, T_obs, and the prediction, T_pred, ΔT_pred/T_obs  10% for 45.8% of all events, 30% for 78.3% and >30% for only 21.7%; (2) for the magnetic disturbance magnitude, the relative error between the observation, ∑K_p,obs, and the prediction, ∑K_p,pred, Δ∑K_p,pred/∑K_p,obs  10% for 41.6% of all events, 30% for 79% and 45% for 100%. This shows that the prediction method described here has encouraging prospects for improving predictions of large geomagnetic disturbances in space weather events.     

宇宙线强度变化与磁扰K类型

本文把1966—1983年期间发生的679个地磁暴进行了分类,利用统计方法分析了各类磁暴发生前后宇宙线强度的变化特征.突发急始脉冲发生后,宇宙线强度没有出现显著的变化;缓始型暴发生后,宇宙线强度出现Forbush下降,但下降幅度很小;急始型暴发生后,宇宙线强度出现十分明显的Forbush下降.当把急始型暴按K指数大小和持续时间分为5种类型,发现它们伴随的宇宙线Forbush下降是不一样的,其下降幅度随磁暴的增强而加大,下降的速率随磁暴的增强而加快,扰动的持续时间随磁暴的减弱而增加.      

ICME期间磁暴的太阳风参数和极光沉降能量

基于1995-2004年ICME驱动的强烈磁暴(SA型)、强磁暴(SB型)和延迟型主相暴(SC型)三种磁暴类型,对1AU处太阳风动压、太阳风速度、行星际磁场、EK-L电场以及极光沉降能量进行时序叠加分析,并分别与-vBz耦合函数和Newell耦合函数进行对比.结果表明,三种磁暴在ICME到达前期的太阳风动压较稳定,背景太阳风、极光沉降能量、行星际磁场和磁层存在相对平静期. ICME到达前期SA型磁暴的背景太阳风速度、行星际磁场南向分量以及极光沉降能量的均值高于另外两种磁暴类型,这说明大型日冕物质抛射在ICME到达前就对行星际磁场、背景太阳风和HP产生了影响.磁暴急始后,SC型磁暴的EK-L电场斜率小,峰值延后且行星际磁场北向分量增强,这些都是磁暴主相延迟的表现,极光沉降能量随着行星际磁场转为南向而增加.     

第23太阳活动周中等地磁暴行星际源的统计分析

统计了第23太阳活动周(1996--2006年)发生的183次中等强度地磁暴(-100 nT < Dst ≤ -50 nT)的行星际源,分析了中等磁暴的年分布状况以及引起中等磁暴的不同行星际结构在太阳活动周中的分布特征,同时,与强磁暴行星际源的分布状况做了对比分析,主要的统计分析结果如下. (1)共转相互作用区CIR与行星际日冕物质抛射ICME在中等磁暴中具有同等重要的作用,且在ICME中,具有磁云结构和非磁云结构的ICME在引起中等磁暴的能力方面也基本相同,但带有鞘层结构的ICME在引起中等磁暴中具有更重要的作用. (2)中等磁暴在极大年(2001年)和下降年(2003年)发生次数最多,与地磁活动的双峰年对应,在极小年(1996和2006年)发生次数最少,与地磁活动低年对应,在其他年份分布较平均. (3)中等磁暴在太阳活动极大年主要由ICME引起,在上升年和下降年CIR在其中起主要作用,且下降年基本是上升年的两倍,而对于强磁暴而言,ICME始终是最重要的行星际源.      

Energetic particle signatures of geoeffective coronal mass ejections

We have studied statistically associations of moderate and intense geomagnetic storms with coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and energetic particle events. The goal was to identify specific energetic particle signatures, which could be used to improve the predictions of the geoeffectiveness of full and partial halo CMEs. Protons in the range 1–110 MeV from the ERNE experiment onboard SOHO are used in the analysis. The study covers the time period from August 1996 to July 2000. We demonstrate the feasibility of energetic particle observations as an additional source of information in evaluating the geoeffectiveness of full and partial halo CMEs. Based on the observed onset times of solar energetic particle (SEP) events and energetic storm particle (ESP) events, we derive a proxy for the transit times of shocks driven by the interplanetary counterparts of coronal mass ejections from the Sun to the Earth. For a limited number of geomagnetic storms which can be associated to both SEP and ESP signatures, we found that this transit time correlates with the strength of geomagnetic storms.     

Modeling the solar cosmic ray event of 13 December 2006 using ground level neutron monitor data

In order to understand the physics under extreme solar conditions such as those producing ground level enhancements of solar cosmic rays, it is important to use accurate and reliable models. The NM-BANGLE Model is a new cosmic ray model which couples primary solar cosmic rays at the top of the Earth’s atmosphere with the secondary ones detected at ground level by neutron monitors during GLEs. This model calculates the evolution of several GLE parameters such as the solar cosmic ray spectrum, anisotropy and particle flux distribution, revealing crucial information on the energetic particle propagation and distribution. The total output of the NM-BANGLE Model is a multi-dimensional GLE picture that gives an important contribution to revealing the characteristics of solar energetic particle events recorded at ground level. In this work, the results of the NM-BANGLE Model application to the recent GLE of 13 December 2006 are presented and discussed. Moreover, a comparison with the extreme event of 20 January 2005 (GLE69) has been realized.     

Statistical analysis of the occurrence rate of geomagnetic storms during solar cycles 20–24

This study examines the occurrences rate of geomagnetic storms during the solar cycles (SCs) 20–24. It also investigates the solar sources at SCs 23 and 24. The Disturbed storm time (Dst) and Sunspot Number (SSN) data were used in the study. The study establishes that the magnitude of the rate of occurrences of geomagnetic storms is higher (lower) at the descending phases (minimum phases) of solar cycle. It as well reveals that severe and extreme geomagnetic storms (Dst < -250 nT) seldom occur at low solar activity but at very high solar activity and are mostly associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs) when occurred. Storms caused by CME + CH-HSSW are more prominent during the descending phase than any other phase of the solar cycle. Solar minimum features more CH-HSSW- associated storms than any other phase. It was also revealed that all high intensity geomagnetic storms (strong, severe and extreme) are mostly associated with CMEs. However, CH-HSSW can occasionally generate strong storms during solar minimum. The results have proven that CMEs are the leading cause of geomagnetic storms at the ascending, maximum and the descending phases of the cycles 23 and 24 followed by CME + CH-HSSW. The results from this study indicate that the rate of occurrence of geomagnetic storms could be predicted in SC phases.     

The solar cosmic ray ground-level enhancements on 20 January 2005 and 13 December 2006

Close to the current solar activity minimum, two large solar cosmic ray ground-level enhancements (GLE) were recorded by the worldwide network of neutron monitors (NM). The enormous GLE on 20 January 2005 is the largest increase observed since the famous GLE in 1956, and the solar cosmic-ray event recorded on 13 December 2006 is among the largest in solar cycle 23. From the recordings of the NMs during the two GLEs, we determined the characteristics of the solar particle flux near Earth.     

磁暴数统计特性研究

Dst是一个表征磁暴强度的空间天气指数. 通过统计1957-2008年 发生的中等磁暴(-100<Dst≤ -50nT)和强磁暴(Dst ≤ -100nT)在太阳活动周上升年、极大年、下降年和极小年的时间分布情 况, 分析其随季节变化的统计特性, 进而讨论了引起磁暴的原因. 结果表明, 对于同一太阳活动周, 极大年地磁暴发生次数远大于极小年地磁暴的发生次数, 这与太阳黑子数的变化趋势是一致的; 通常太阳活动周强磁暴出现双峰结构, 而第23周中等磁暴出现双峰结构, 强磁暴则出现三峰结构, 这可能与1999 年强 磁暴发生次数异常少, 使1998年凸显出来的现象有关; 磁暴主要发生在分季, 随着Dst指数的增加, 磁暴发生次数明显增加.      

Cosmic ray variations of solar origin in relation to human physiological state during the December 2006 solar extreme events

There is an increasing amount of evidence linking biological effects to solar and geomagnetic disturbances. A series of studies is published referring to the changes in human physiological responses at different levels of geomagnetic activity. In this study, the possible relation between the daily variations of cosmic ray intensity, measured by the Neutron Monitor at the Cosmic Ray Station of the University of Athens (http://cosray.phys.uoa.gr) and the average daily and hourly heart rate variations of persons, with no symptoms or hospital admission, monitored by Holter electrocardiogram, is considered. This work refers to a group of persons admitted to the cardiological clinic of the KAT Hospital in Athens during the time period from 4th to 24th December 2006 that is characterized by extreme solar and geomagnetic activity. A series of Forbush decreases started on 6th December and lasted until the end of the month and a great solar proton event causing a Ground Level Enhancement (GLE) of the cosmic ray intensity on 13th December occurred. A sudden decrease of the cosmic ray intensity on 15th December, when a geomagnetic storm was registered, was also recorded in Athens Neutron Monitor station (cut-off rigidity 8.53 GV) with amplitude of 4%. It is noticed that during geomagnetically quiet days the heart rate and the cosmic ray intensity variations are positively correlated. When intense cosmic ray variations, like Forbush decreases and relativistic proton events produced by strong solar phenomena occur, cosmic ray intensity and heart rate get minimum values and their variations, also, coincide. During these events the correlation coefficient of these two parameters changes and follows the behavior of the cosmic ray intensity variations. This is only a small part of an extended investigation, which has begun using data from the year 2002 and is still in progress.     

Space storm measurements of the July 2005 solar extreme events from the low corona to the Earth

The Athens Neutron Monitor Data Processing (ANMODAP) Center recorded an unusual Forbush decrease with a sharp enhancement of cosmic ray intensity right after the main phase of the Forbush decrease on 16 July 2005, followed by a second decrease within less than 12 h. This exceptional event is neither a ground level enhancement nor a geomagnetic effect in cosmic rays. It rather appears as the effect of a special structure of interplanetary disturbances originating from a group of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in the 13–14 July 2005 period. The initiation of the CMEs was accompanied by type IV radio bursts and intense solar flares (SFs) on the west solar limb (AR 786); this group of energetic phenomena appears under the label of Solar Extreme Events of July 2005. We study the characteristics of these events using combined data from Earth (the ARTEMIS IV radioheliograph, the Athens Neutron Monitor (ANMODAP)), space (WIND/WAVES) and data archives. We propose an interpretation of the unusual Forbush profile in terms of a magnetic structure and a succession of interplanetary shocks interacting with the magnetosphere.     

The local time dependence of the anisotropic solar cosmic ray flux.

The distribution of the solar cosmic radiation flux over the earth is not uniform, but the result of complex phenomena involving the interplanetary magnetic field, the geomagnetic field and latitude and longitude of locations on the earth. The latitude effect relates to the geomagnetic shield; the longitude effect relates to local time. For anisotropic solar cosmic ray events the maximum particle flux is always along the interplanetary magnetic field direction, sometimes called the Archimedean spiral path from the sun to the earth. During anisotropic solar cosmic ray event, the locations on the earth viewing "sunward" into the interplanetary magnetic field direction will observe the largest flux (when adjustments are made for the magnetic latitude effect). To relate this phenomena to aircraft routes, for anisotropic solar cosmic ray events that occur during "normal quiescent" conditions, the maximum solar cosmic ray flux (and corresponding solar particle radiation dose) will be observed in the dawn quadrant, ideally at about 06 hours local time.     

The solar wind control of the equatorial ionosphere dynamics during geomagnetic storms

The interplanetary magnetic field, geomagnetic variations, virtual ionosphere height h′F, and the critical frequency foF2 data during the geomagnetic storms are studied to demonstrate relationships between these phenomena. We study 5-min ionospheric variations using the first Western Pacific Ionosphere Campaign (1998–1999) observations, 5-min interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and 5-min auroral electrojets data during a moderate geomagnetic storm. These data allowed us to demonstrate that the auroral and the equatorial ionospheric phenomena are developed practically simultaneously. Hourly average of the ionospheric foF2 and h′F variations at near equatorial stations during a similar storm show the same behavior. We suppose this is due to interaction between electric fields of the auroral and the equatorial ionosphere during geomagnetic storms. It is shown that the low-latitude ionosphere dynamics during these moderate storms was defined by the southward direction of the B_z-component of the interplanetary magnetic field. A southward IMF produces the Region I and Region II field-aligned currents (FAC) and polar electrojet current systems. We assume that the short-term ionospheric variations during geomagnetic storms can be explained mainly by the electric field of the FAC. The electric fields of the field-aligned currents can penetrate throughout the mid-latitude ionosphere to the equator and may serve as a coupling agent between the auroral and the equatorial ionosphere.     

利用支持向量机预测大磁暴期间Dst指数的变化

利用支持向量机（SVM）模型对大磁暴期间Dst指数进行预报研究.以1995-2014年期间的80次大磁暴（Dst≤-100nT）事件共2662组观测数据为研究对象,以对应时间的太阳风参数为模型输入参数,同时建立了神经网络模型和线性机模型进行对比,并利用交叉验证提高预测结果的可靠性.为比较不同模型的预测效果,选用相关系数（CC）、均方根误差（RMS）、磁暴期间Dst指数最小值预测结果的平均绝对误差以及Dst指数最小值出现时间预测结果的平均绝对误差等统计量作为对比参数.结果显示SVM模型的预测效果最好,其中相关系数为0.89,均方根误差为24.27nT,所有磁暴事件的最小Dst值预测平均绝对误差为17.35nT,最小Dst值出现时间的预测平均绝对误差为3.2h.为进一步检验模型对不同活动水平磁暴预报效果的可能差异,将所有磁暴事件分为大磁暴（-200 相似文献   

CME-geometry and cosmic-ray anisotropy observed by a prototype muon detector network

We analyze the cosmic-ray anisotropy observed by a prototype network of muon detectors during geomagnetic storms associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The network currently consists of multidirectional surface muon detectors at Nagoya (Japan) and Hobart (Australia), together with a prototype detector at São Martinho (Brazil) which has been in operation since March, 2001. In this report, we analyze the anisotropy recorded in both the muon detector and neutron monitor (the Spaceship Earth) networks and find significant enhancements of cosmic-ray anisotropy during geomagnetic storms. Following the analysis by Bieber and Evenson [Bieber, J.W., Evenson, P. CME geometry in relation to cosmic ray anisotropy. Geophys. Res. Lett. 25 (1998) 2955–2958] for the neutron monitor data at 10 GeV, we also derive cosmic-ray density gradients from muon data at higher-energy (50 GeV), possibly reflecting the larger-scale geometry of CMEs causing geomagnetic storms. We particularly find in some events the anisotropy enhancement clearly starting prior to the storm onset in both the muon and neutron data. This is the first result of the CME-geometry derived from simultaneous observations of the anisotropy with networks of multidirectional muon detectors and neutron monitors.