行星际激波传播至1AU的渡越时间预测

考虑了激波爆发源角宽度、能量、驱动时间、激波速度及其与背景太阳风之间的相互作用，利用流体力学扰动方程建立起一个激波扰动传播模型，用于研究激波从太阳传播到地球轨道附近（1AU处）所需要的时间（渡越时间）问题．为印证扰动传播模型的适用性，利用1979-1989年间的27个激波事件，以及1997年2月到2000年1月间的68个激波事件，对激波到达地球轨道附近的渡越时间进行了预测，并将结果与STOA和ISPM预报模型结果进行了比较．实验表明，该模型在所有95个事件中，渡越时间相对误差小于10％的事件数占总事件数的25．26％；相对误差小于20％的占总事件数的50．53％；相对误差小于30％的占总事件的65．26％．

Predicting the 1 AU Arrival Times of Interplanetary Shocks

In order to predict the arrival time at 1AU of interplanetary shocks, a simple model called shock propagation model is established here. In this model, the travel time is assumed to be a function of energy that is released from solar explosives, and pulse longitudinal width, pulse duration, the interaction of interplanetary shock and background solar wind are also taken into account. In order to verify the prediction efficiency, 27 interplanetary shock events from January 1979 to October 1989 and 68 interplanetary shock events from February 1997 to January 2000 are used for testing. Comparing the results of our shock propagation model with those obtained by STOA and ISPM models, we find that our disturbance propagation model is as good as the other two models, and in some cases even better. The shock propagation model can give the prediction for all the 95 shock events, while STOA model works for 89 events and ISPM model for only 72 events. There are 25.26% percentage of all the 95 events with the relative time error less than 10%, 50.53% of all the events with the relative time error less than 20%, 65.26% of all the events with the relative time error less than 30~.