基于解体事件的空间碎片轨道演化算法研究

针对航天器解体事件所生成的空间碎片的演化过程，进行了数学分析，确定了新生成的空间碎片的速度增量，在该增量作用下碎片轨道会发生变更，本文根据该增量得出了空间碎片在轨道变更后的轨道根数，分析了在大气阻力摄动作用下，空间碎片的数目和轨道分布的演化情况，给出了相关结果，结果表明此算法可行。

An Algorithm for the Orbital Evolution of Space Debris from Breakup Events

Space debris created by man's space activities has brought great risks to launch and operation of spacecrafts, especially in the following few years, there will be more and more space activities in the world. So it is necessary to know situation of current space debris environment and predict its development in the future, thus to provide important reference to protection design and operation of spacecrafts and measures of diminishing amount of space debris. An important component of the debris population that is presented in this paper is the debris generated by on-orbit breakup events. It is collision and explosion event that inflames most the increasing rate of the total amount of the space debris. Breakup events include collision and explosion events. Consequently the ability to model different breakup events is a vital part of a long-term debris environment model. In this paper, the orbital evolution of space debris from the spacecraft breakups has been done a through mathematical analysis. A detailed research on the mechanisms of space debris generation, evolution and annihilation from the view point of evolutionary mode is also given. The velocity increments of space debris from spacecraft breakups are presented. Based on the velocity increments, the orbital elements of space debris are gained. Then the cumulative number and orbital distribution of space debris are analyzed due to atmospheric drag perturbation. Finally, the relevant results are gave and compared with the results of CODRM. The results indicate the feasibility of the algorithm.