Three-dimensional global simulation of multiple ICMEs’ interaction and propagation from the Sun to the heliosphere following the 25–28 October 2003 solar events

This study performs simulations of interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) propagation in a realistic three-dimensional (3D) solar wind structure from the Sun to the Earth by using the newly developed hybrid code, HAFv.2+3DMHD. This model combines two simulation codes, Hakamada–Akasofu–Fry code version 2 (HAFv.2) and a fully 3D, time-dependent MHD simulation code. The solar wind structure is simulated out to 0.08 AU (18 Rs) from source surface maps using the HAFv.2 code. The outputs at 0.08 AU are then used to provide inputs for the lower boundary, at that location, of the 3D MHD code to calculate solar wind and its evolution to 1 AU and beyond. A dynamic disturbance, mimicking a particular flare’s energy output, is delivered to this non-uniform structure to model the evolution and interplanetary propagation of ICMEs (including their shocks). We then show the interaction between two ICMEs and the dynamic process during the overtaking of one shock by the other. The results show that both CMEs and heliosphere current sheet/plasma sheet were deformed by interacting with each other.     

ICMEs Likely From the Same Active Region Observed by Both Helios 1 and IMP 8

The chance of an Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection (ICME) observed by widely-separated spacecraft is rare. However, such an event provides us a good opportunity to study the propagation and evolution of ICMEs in the heliosphere. On day 72 of 1975, an ICME was observed by Helios 1 at 0.3 AU, while a similar solar wind structure was observed by IMP 8 at Earth on day 70 of 1975. On the basis of comparison of the plasma signatures and the transit time from Helios 1 to IMP 8, we hypothesize the observed ICMEs by both spacecraft are resulted from the same active region on the solar surface. A one-dimensional MHD model was used to track the ICME from Helios 1 (0.3 AU) to Earth. The observed plasma profiles and timing are close to those predicted by our MHD model and thus, give the supports to the model.      

Propagation of normal and faster CMEs in the interplanetary medium

We have analyzed 101 Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) events and their associated interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs) and interplanetary (IP) shocks observed during the period 1997–2005 from the list given by Mujiber Rahman et al. (2012). The aim of the present work is to correlate the interplanetary parameters such as, the speeds of IP shocks and ICMEs, CME transit time and their relation with CME parameters near the Sun. Mainly, a group of 10 faster CME events (V_INT > 2200 km/s) are compared with a list of 91 normal events of Manoharan et al. (2004). From the distribution diagrams of CME, ICME and IP shock speeds, we note that a large number of events tends to narrow towards the ambient (i.e., background) solar wind speed (∼500 km/s) in agreement with the literature. Also, we found that the IP shock speed and the average ICME speed measured at 1 AU are well correlated. In addition, the IP shock speed is found to be slightly higher than the ICME speed. While the normal events show CME travel time in the range of ∼40–80 h with a mean value of 65 h, the faster events have lower transit time with a mean value of 40 h. The effect of solar wind drag is studied using the correlation of CME acceleration with interplanetary (IP) acceleration and with other parameters of ICMEs. While the mean acceleration values of normal and faster CMEs in the LASCO FOV are 1 m/s², 18 m/s², they are −1.5 m/s² and −14 m/s² in the interplanetary medium, respectively. The relation between CME speed and IP acceleration for normal and faster events are found to agree with that of  and  except slight deviations for the faster events. It is also seen that the faster events with less travel time face higher negative acceleration (>−10 m/s²) in the interplanetary medium up to 1 AU.     

Coronal mass ejections in the heliosphere

With the advent of the NASA STEREO mission, we are in a position to perform unique investigations of the evolution of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) as they propagate through the heliosphere, and thus can investigate the relationship between CMEs and their interplanetary counterparts, so-called interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs). ICME studies have been principally limited to single-point, in-situ observations; interpretation of the in-situ characteristics of ICMEs has been used to derive a range of ICME properties which we can now confirm or refute using the STEREO imaging data. This paper is a review of early STEREO CME observations and how they relate to our currently understanding of ICMEs based on in-situ observations. In that sense, it is a first glance at the applications of the new data-sets to this topic and provides pointers to more detailed analyses. We find good agreement with in-situ-based interpretations, but this in turn leads to an anomaly regarding the final stages of a CME event that we investigate briefly to identify directions for future study.     

Evolution of solar wind structures from 0.72 to 1 AU

Understanding the evolution of solar wind structures in the inner heliosphere as they approach the Earth is important to space weather prediction. From the in situ solar wind plasma and magnetic field measurements of Pioneer Venus Orbiter (PVO) at 0.72 AU (1979–1988), and of Wind/Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) missions at 1 AU (1995–2004), we identify and characterize two major solar wind structures, stream interaction regions (SIRs) and interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). The average percentage of SIRs occurring with shocks increases significantly from 3% to 24% as they evolve from 0.72 to 1 AU. The average occurrence rate, radial extent, and bulk velocity variation of SIRs do not change from 0.72 to 1 AU, while peak pressure and magnetic field strength both decrease with the radial evolution of SIRs. Within the 0.28 AU distance from the orbit of Venus to that of Earth, the average fraction of ICMEs with shocks increases from 49% to 66%, and the typical radial extent of ICMEs expands by about a fraction of 1.4, with peak pressure and magnetic field strength decreasing significantly. The mean occurrence rate and expansion velocity of ICMEs do not change from 0.72 to 1 AU.     

Solar and interplanetary parameters of CMEs with and without type II radio bursts

We have analyzed 101 CMEs, and their associated ICMEs and interplanetary (IP) shocks observed during the period 1997–2005. The main aim of the present work is to study the interplanetary characteristics of metric and DH type II associated CMEs such as, shock strength, IP shock speed, ICME speed, stand off distance and transit time. Among these 101 CMEs, 38 events show both metric and DH type II bursts characteristics. There are no metric and DH type II association for 52 events. While DH type II alone is found in 7 cases, metric type II alone is found in 4 events. It is found that the mean speeds of CMEs increase progressively from CMEs without type II events to CMEs associated with metric and DH type IIs as suggested by Gopalswamy et al. (2005). In addition, we found that the speeds of ICMEs and IP shocks progressively increase in the following order: events without metric and DH type IIs, events with metric alone, events with DH alone and events with both metric and DH type IIs. Similarly the Mach number is found to increase in the same order. While there is not much change in the stand-off distance among these cases, it is minimum (∼18 R_⊙) for CMEs with speed greater than 2200 km/s. The above results confirm that more energetic CMEs can produce both metric and DH type IIs for which the interplanetary parameters such as mean values of ICME speed and IP shock speed and Mach number are found to be higher.     

Numeric simulations of in situ observations of interacting ejecta near 1 AU

We use a simple numerical model (González-Esparza, J.A., Santillán, A., Ferrer, J. A numerical study of the interaction between two ejecta in the interplanetary medium: one and two dimensional hydrodynamic simulations, Ann. Geophys. 22, 3741–3749, 2004) to study the evolution of three events in the solar wind reported by Wang et al. (Wang, Y.M., Ye, P.Z., Wang, S. Multiple magnetic clouds: several examples during March–April 2001. J. Geophys. Res. 108, 1370, 2003, doi:10.1029/2003JA009850), where two interacting ejecta detected in situ by ACE near 1 AU were related to CMEs observed previously by SOHO-LASCO. The study is based on a 1-D hydrodynamic model using the ZEUS code (Stone, J.M., Norman, M. ZEUS 2-D: A radiation magnetohydrodynamics code for astrophysical flows in two dimensions, I, the hydrodynamics algorithms and tests, Astrophys. J. 80, 753, 1992). Although this model cannot address either the magnetic field dynamics or the complex geometrical effects intrinsic in the three-dimensional nature of the phenomena, it illuminates the transferring of momentum and evolution of interacting large-scale solar wind disturbances in those cases where there is no merging (magnetic reconnection) between the two ejecta. This model can reproduce, in some cases, characteristics of the events such as transit times and flow signatures as inferred from the two-point measurements from spacecraft.     

A first step towards proton flux forecasting

We present a preliminary version of a potential tool for real time proton flux prediction which provides proton flux profiles and cumulative fluence profiles at 0.5 and 2 MeV of solar energetic particle events, from their onset up to the arrival of the interplanetary shock at the spacecraft position (located at 1 or 0.4 AU). Based on the proton transportation model by Lario et al. [Lario, D., Sanahuja, B., Heras, A.M. Energetic particle events: efficiency of interplanetary shocks as 50 keV E < 100 MeV proton accelerators. Astrophys. J. 509, 415–434, 1998] and the magnetohydrodynamic shock propagation model of Wu et al. [Wu, S.T., Dryer, M., Han, S.M. Non-planar MHD model for solar flare-generated disturbances in the Heliospheric equatorial plane. Sol. Phys. 84, 395–418, 1983], we have generated a database containing “synthetic” profiles of the proton fluxes and cumulative fluences of 384 solar energetic particle events. We are currently validating the applicability of this code for space weather forecasting by comparing the resulting “synthetic” flux profiles with those of several real events.     

Large geomagnetic storms of extreme solar event periods in solar cycle 23

During extreme solar events such as big flares or/and energetic coronal mass ejections (CMEs) high energy particles are accelerated by the shocks formed in front of fast interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). The ICMEs (and their sheaths) also give rise to large geomagnetic storms which have significant effects on the Earth’s environment and human life. Around 14 solar cosmic ray ground level enhancement (GLE) events in solar cycle 23 we examined the cosmic ray variation, solar wind speed, ions density, interplanetary magnetic field, and geomagnetic disturbance storm time index (D_st). We found that all but one of GLEs are always followed by a geomagnetic storm with D_st  −50 nT within 1–5 days later. Most(10/14) geomagnetic storms have D_st index  −100  nT therefore generally belong to strong geomagnetic storms. This suggests that GLE event prediction of geomagnetic storms is 93% for moderate storms and 71% for large storms when geomagnetic storms preceded by GLEs. All D_st depressions are associated with cosmic ray decreases which occur nearly simultaneously with geomagnetic storms. We also investigated the interplanetary plasma features. Most geomagnetic storm correspond significant periods of southward B_z and in close to 80% of the cases that the B_z was first northward then turning southward after storm sudden commencement (SSC). Plasma flow speed, ion number density and interplanetary plasma temperature near 1 AU also have a peak at interplanetary shock arrival. Solar cause and energetic particle signatures of large geomagnetic storms and a possible prediction scheme are discussed.     

Helios飞船观测到的行星际日冕物质抛射事件

根据异常低的质子温度判据，从Heliosl和2飞船等离子体观测数据中(0．3-1AU)识别出大约160个行星际日冕物质抛射事件(ICME)，并在统计意义上分析了ICME在内日球空间的传播和演化规律．     

Radio-scintillation observations of interplanetary disturbances

Recent developments in the studies of interplanetary disturbances by scintillation (IPS) techniques are briefly reviewed. The turbulent post-shock region of an interplanetary disturbance produces transient enhancements in the scintillation level and the flow speed in many cases. An empirical method to determine three-dimensional angular distribution of propagation speed of the disturbance on the basis of IPS measurements of post-shock flow speeds is applied to 17 events which took place in 1978–1981. Among them, four representative examples including two events which were associated with disappearing solar filaments are described in detail. Several disturbances had oblate configurations; the latitudinal extent is smaller than the longitudinal extent. On an average, the angular distribution of propagation speed at 1 AU heliocentric distance is quasi-isotropic over a longitudinal range of 100° centered at the normal of relevant solar phenomenon. The net excess mass and energy in an interplanetary disturbance associated with a disappearing solar filament can be comparable to those of an interplanetary disturbance associated with a large solar flare.     

Solar and interplanetary precursors of geomagnetic storms in solar cycle 23

Estimating the magnetic storm effectiveness of solar and associated interplanetary phenomena is of practical importance for space weather modelling and prediction. This article presents results of a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the probable causes of geomagnetic storms during the 11-year period of solar cycle 23: 1996–2006. Potential solar causes of 229 magnetic storms (Dst ? −50 nT) were investigated with a particular focus on halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs). A 5-day time window prior to the storm onset was considered to track backward the Sun’s eruptions of halo CMEs using the SOHO/LASCO CMEs catalogue list. Solar and interplanetary (IP) properties associated with halo CMEs were investigated and correlated to the resulting geomagnetic storms (GMS). In addition, a comparative analysis between full and partial halo CME-driven storms is established. The results obtained show that about 83% of intense storms (Dst ? −100 nT) were associated with halo CMEs. For moderate storms (−100 nT < Dst ? −50 nT), only 54% had halo CME background, while the remaining 46% were assumed to be associated with corotating interaction regions (CIRs) or undetected frontside CMEs. It was observed in this study that intense storms were mostly associated with full halo CMEs, while partial halo CMEs were generally followed by moderate storms. This analysis indicates that up to 86% of intense storms were associated with interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) at 1 AU, as compared to moderate storms with only 44% of ICME association. Many other quantitative results are presented in this paper, providing an estimate of solar and IP precursor properties of GMS within an average 11-year solar activity cycle. The results of this study constitute a key step towards improving space weather modelling and prediction.     

Propagation of interplanetary shocks into the Earth’s magnetosphere

This paper is devoted to the study of propagation of disturbances caused by interplanetary shocks (IPS) through the Earth’s magnetosphere. Using simultaneous observations of various fast forward shocks by different satellites in the solar wind, magnetosheath and magnetosphere from 1995 till 2002, we traced the interplanetary shocks into the Earth’s magnetosphere, we calculated the velocity of their propagation into the Earth’s magnetosphere and analyzed fronts of the disturbances. From the onset of disturbances at different satellites in the magnetosphere we obtained speed values ranging from 500 to 1300 km/s in the direction along the IP shock normal, that is in a general agreement with results of previous numerical MHD simulations. The paper discusses in detail a sequence of two events on November 9th, 2002. For the two cases we estimated the propagation speed of the IP shock caused disturbance between the dayside and nightside magnetosphere to be 590 km/s and 714–741 km/s, respectively. We partially attributed this increase to higher Alfven speed in the outer magnetosphere due to the compression of the magnetosphere as a consequence of the first event, and partially to the faster and stronger driving interplanetary shock. High-time resolution GOES magnetic field data revealed a complex structure of the compressional wave fronts at the dayside geosynchronous orbit during these events, with initial very steep parts (10 s). We discuss a few possible mechanisms of such steep front formation in the paper.     

太阳风速度及日球电流片对CME渡越时间的影响

基于1996-2005年88个引起重大地磁暴的CME(日冕物质抛射)事件、1996-2000年的47个CME事件以及1997-2002年的29个全晕状CME事件,结合ACE卫星在1AU处的太阳风和行星际磁场观测资料以及Wilcox Solar Observatory(WSO)天文台的太阳光球层磁图,分析了背景太阳风速度和日球电流片对CME到达1AU处渡越时间预报误差的影响.结果表明,背景太阳风速度与CME渡越时间误差并没有明显的相关性,在考虑了磁云通量管轴相对黄道面夹角的影响后相关性依然不明显.然而日球电流片对CME渡越时间却有明显的影响,对于初速度较小的异侧CME事件,其渡越时间大于同侧事件;而对于具有较大初速度的CME事件,异侧事件的渡越时间明显小于同侧事件.研究结果表明,CME与太阳风以及日球电流片的相互作用并不是简单的对流相互作用,造成高速CME异侧事件快于同侧事件到达地球的因素非常复杂,有待深入研究.      

Heliospheric asymmetries due to the action of the interstellar magnetic field

We discuss the asymmetry of the heliospheric discontinuities obtained from the analysis of 3D modeling of the solar wind (SW) interaction with local interstellar medium (LISM). The flow of charged particles is governed by the ideal MHD equations and the flow of neutral particles is described by the Boltzmann equation. The emphasis is made on the asymmetries of the termination shock (TS) and the heliopause under the combined action of the interstellar and interplanetary magnetic fields (ISMF and IMF) in the presence of neutral hydrogen atoms whose transport through the heliosphere is modeled kinetically, using a Monte Carlo approach. We show that the deflection of neutral hydrogen flow from its original direction in the unperturbed LISM is highly anisotropic and evaluate a possible angle between the hydrogen deflection plane measured in the SOHO SWAN experiment and the plane containing the ISMF and LISM velocity vectors for different ISMF strengths. It is shown that the ISMF of a strength greater than 4 μG can account for the 10 AU difference in the TS heliocentric difference observed during its crossing by the Voyager 1 and Voyager 2 spacecraft, which however results in a larger discrepancy between the calculated and observed velocity distributions. The effect of a strong ISMF on the distribution of plasma quantities in the inner heliosheath and on 2–3 kHz radio emission is discussed.     

太阳耀斑行星际激波传播中的追赶效应

本文采用二维MHD模型对具有不同间隔时间的2个耀斑先后爆发,模拟研究它们所对应的行星际激波间的追赶效应,并和单个耀斑所产生的行星际激波相比较。研究结果表明,间隔时间一天以内的2个耀斑激波在行星际空间向外传播时,激波之间有明显的相互作用发生,间隔时间的长短决定了激波传播过程中追赶效应的强弱。根据数值试验结果,追赶效应可归纳为4类,(1)强追赶效应,(2)中等追赶效应,(3)弱追赶效应,(4)无追赶效应。属于强追赶效应的2个耀斑激波传播至1AU处,产生的行星际扰动非常相似于单个耀斑激波的扰动。     

Prediction tests by using “ISF” method for the geomagnetic disturbances

A so-called “ISF” prediction method for geomagnetic disturbances caused by solar wind storms blowing to the Earth is suggested. The method is based on a combined approach of solar activity, interplanetary scintillation (I) and geomagnetic disturbance observations during the period 1966–1982 together with the dynamics of solar wind storm propagation (S) and fuzzy mathematics (F). It has been used for prediction tests for 37 geomagnetic disturbance events during the descending solar activity phase 1984–1985, and was presented in 33rd COSPAR conference. Here, it has been improved by consideration of the three dimensional propagation characteristics of each event, the search for the best radio source and the influence of the southward components of interplanetary magnetic fields on the geomagnetic disturbances. It is used for prediction tests for 24 larger geomagnetic disturbance events that produced space anomalies during the period 1980–1999. The main results are: (1) for the onset time of the geomagnetic disturbance, the relative error between the observation, T_obs, and the prediction, T_pred, ΔT_pred/T_obs  10% for 45.8% of all events, 30% for 78.3% and >30% for only 21.7%; (2) for the magnetic disturbance magnitude, the relative error between the observation, ∑K_p,obs, and the prediction, ∑K_p,pred, Δ∑K_p,pred/∑K_p,obs  10% for 41.6% of all events, 30% for 79% and 45% for 100%. This shows that the prediction method described here has encouraging prospects for improving predictions of large geomagnetic disturbances in space weather events.     

黄道面内行星际激波相互碰撞作用过程研究—能量效应

本文用两维半MHD数值模型,数值模拟研究了两邻近扰动源所产生的激波在行星际空间黄道面内不同能量时的相互碰撞过程。在内边界(18R_s)两扰动中心的间距取为36°。结果表明:两弱激波(速度在500km/s左右以下)不会产生汇合,而是各自独立地传播;两中等强度激波(速度在1000km/s左右)将发生汇合,但在IAU尚可分辨;两强激波(速度在2000km/s以上)则在1AU以内已发生汇合,汇合后形成一个新激波,其磁场结构与单激波明显不同。激波能量越大,两激波汇合的越快。     

A new parameter to define interplanetary coronal mass ejections

The interplanetary manifestations of coronal mass ejections, ICMEs, have many signatures in the solar wind but none of these signatures in the velocity, density, temperature, magnetic field, plasma composition or energetic particles uniquely and unambiguously identifies the occurrence of an ICME. Different investigators identify different events when confronted with the same data. Herein, we present a single physical parameter that combines information from multiple plasma components and that holds the promise of defining a beginning and an end of the region of influence ICME and an indication of the location of the encounter with the ICME relative to its central meridian. This parameter is the total plasma pressure perpendicular to the magnetic field, consisting of the sum of the magnetic pressure and plasma kinetic or thermal pressure. It provides a vehicle for classifying the nature of the ICME encounter and, in many cases, provides an unambiguous start and stop time of the event. However, it does not provide a start and stop time for any embedded flux rope. This identification depends on examination of the magnetic field.