模糊聚类分析在耀斑-地磁扰动研究中的初步应用

本文运用模糊聚类分析的方法,对1975—1983年可证认出的210个耀斑-IPS激波事件进行了分析研究,给出了它们的聚类指标和模糊等价关系以及大、中、小三类耀斑-磁扰的聚类中心。初步研究结果表明:95％的耀斑-IPS激波会引起地磁扰动(∑Kp≥16);对持续1小时以上的二级耀斑和2小时以上的一级耀斑,以及多个射电源的IPS观测均出现50km/8以上的速度跳跃这类大耀斑-IPS激波事件进行模糊聚类磁扰强弱预报试验,其准确率可达80％;这种大耀斑-IPS激波事件所对应的地磁扰动变化范围很宽,从∑Kp≥12直到∑Kp≤54,这说明耀斑-激波在行星际空间的传播以及向地球的传输过程是十分复杂的。      

太阳活动高年期间(1978—1981)耀斑-行星际激波传播的三维平均特性——日本行星际闪烁(IPS)观测的初步分析

文中通过对行星际激波传播的动力学效应的考虑,根据日本的IPS观测资料,对太阳活动高年期间85个耀斑-IPS激波事件进行了统计研究.结果表明:(1)激波的传播相对耀斑法线方向是非对称传播.传播最快的方向,就经度而言趋向行星际螺旋形磁场方向;就纬度而言很接近在此事件期间日球电流片的平均纬度.(2)传播的纬度范围(-60°— +40°)远比传播的经度范围(<—90°—+90°)小.(3)激波的能量分布有明显的东-西、南-北不对称性,它决定了激波传播的非对称特性.所研究的85个耀斑-激波的平均能量～2.7×1031尔格(单位立体角).上述结果与我们分析美国圣地亚哥IPS观测所得结果基本一致[3].      

从属函数在地磁扰动预报研究中的初步应用

根据1966-1982年期间有关太阳耀斑、行星际激波和地磁扰动的观测资料而建立的从属函数,对1984-1985年间的行星际闪烁观测中能证认出的耀斑-激波所引起的地磁扰动作了预报试验。结果表明:(1)磁扰开始时间预报的相对误差,δT/T≤10%的事件数为20个,占总事件数的50%,δT/T≤20%的事件占总事件数的70%以上;(2)磁扰幅度(ΣKp)大小的预报,其相对误差δΣKp/ΣKp≤30%的事件数为32个,占总事件数的80%,而δΣKp/ΣKp≥60%仅占15%.本文方法显示了一定潜力,有待从聚类分析方面进一步深入。      

关于冲击波在环形磁场中的传播

本文求解了点源爆炸波在环形磁场中传播的非自型问题。以耀斑引起的击波传播为例讨论了解的应用。从中可以看到,磁场扰动呈U形,主要发生在0.5Re—1.0Re的击波区域;行星际磁场的存在使击波到达1AU的时间延长了几个小时;击波必须具有大于磁截止能量E_M=λ₁S2/4π J₀R时(符号意义见内容)才有可能传播到1AU以远的地方,日冕磁场结构对耀斑击波进入行星际空间的传播有重要作用。      

异常SSC事件的行星际原因分析

磁暴急始(SSC)是强烈太阳风动压或行星际激波与磁层相互作用的结果.通常SSC事件的上升时间在4～10 min,我们把上升时间超过15 min的SSC事件称为异常SSC事件.本文利用地磁SYM-H指数鉴别出了5个有地磁观测历史以来发生的上升时间大于15 min的异常SSC事件,并利用Wind,ACE,IMP 8,Goes,Geotail多点卫星太阳风观测数据和地磁观测数据,分析了异常SSC事件的行星际原因.结果表明,异常SSC事件通常都是强烈行星际扰动引起的,5个异常SSC事件有4个对应于行星际激波,有3个对应于多步太阳风动压跃变,有1个对应于行星际电场大幅度变化;由行星际激波产生的异常SSC事件,其上升时间依赖于行星际激波的方向,方向相对于日地连线越偏,上升时间越长;异常SSC事件上升时间与行星际磁场方向关系不明显.      

太阳耀斑的行星引潮力触发

阐述了太阳潮波动力学的概况，依据实际资料的统计结果指出；行星引潮力触发耀斑的效应随耀斑级别的增大而增强；对于3级及其以上耀斑，强潮汐触发较之弱触发的耀斑产出率之比高达9.33；这个重要事实在预报地球和日地空间灾害性扰动方面，会有相当大的实际价值。     

黄道面内行星际激波相互碰撞作用过程研究—能量效应

本文用两维半MHD数值模型,数值模拟研究了两邻近扰动源所产生的激波在行星际空间黄道面内不同能量时的相互碰撞过程。在内边界(18R_s)两扰动中心的间距取为36°。结果表明:两弱激波(速度在500km/s左右以下)不会产生汇合,而是各自独立地传播;两中等强度激波(速度在1000km/s左右)将发生汇合,但在IAU尚可分辨;两强激波(速度在2000km/s以上)则在1AU以内已发生汇合,汇合后形成一个新激波,其磁场结构与单激波明显不同。激波能量越大,两激波汇合的越快。     

影响地球环境的太阳质子事件的时间过程

利用1966年以来的大量太阳耀斑以及相应质子事件的资料,分析研究了质子事件到达时间和极大时间同耀斑经度位置的统计关系.结果表明当耀斑位置处于经过地球的行星际大尺度场磁力线足点位置附近时,上述两种时间过程最短.这个结果支持了太阳耀斑粒子经日冕传播再向行星际空间传播的二阶段传播模型.      

1994年2月21日行星际激波引起的磁暴

利用Imp-8,Geotail和Goes-6等卫星资料,研究了1994年2月21日0900UT到达地球磁层的行星际激波引起的磁暴期间,从太阳风向磁层传输能量的有关问题.结果指出:（1）南向行星际磁场（IMF）的长持续时间不是太阳风向磁层输能的必要条件.南北振荡的,较强IMF也能产生显著的能量传输;（2）行星际扰动磁场通过弓激波和磁层顶后扰动磁能增加,增幅将近5倍;（3）在磁层内扰动磁场的Bz分量在1×10-4Hz附近显著被吸收.这一低频扰动磁场可能是磁暴期间导致氧离子和质子等环电流粒子向内扩散并被加速的原因之一.     

用行星引潮力预报太阳耀斑的注记

太阳活动与空间坏境紧密相关,大耀斑会引起空间环境的剧烈扰动．太阳活动预报便成空间环境预报的基本依据．太阳预报水平长期以来提高缓慢,太阳物理学家皆有共识,寄希望于物理预报的进展,但举步维艰．近来,“太阳活动的行星潮汐效应”的研究取得了新进展1)[1,2],引潮力可以触发耀斑,从而,利用这类效应发展物理预报技术,呈现良好前景．“太阳耀斑发生率按行星引潮力的分布”已有几个具体结果,表面看来,其间似乎有出人需予澄清．1972年,董土仑和林柏森发现1958－1968年94个质子耀斑的发生率在其目面经度处（活动经度上）技引潮力…     

Physical interpretation of interdisciplinary solar/interplanetary observations relevant to the 27–29 June 1980 SMY/STIP event no. 5

A sequence of six well defined interplanetary structures (magnetic clouds) was identified in the solar wind and magnetic field measurements of Helios-1 from 29 June-01 July, 1980. (location 0.64–0.67 AU, C. Long. ～165°, C. Lat. ～5.8°). These structures were characterized by a large northward directed solar wind flow; by well defined directional discontinuities of mainly the ‘tangential-type’ at their beginnings and ends; by some increase in proton and by very pronounced increases in alpha particle number densities - each accompanied by sudden temperature decreases (or in one case by an increase); by some times an increase in magnetic field strength and by values of Nα/Np typical of the inner solar atmosphere. These structures are suggested to have been ejections from a succession (27–29 June, 1980) of Type II producing flares in Hale Region 16923 which coronagraph and X-ray (GOES) data indicate constituted a family of transient producing events. Only two interplanetary shocks were identified in the relevant Helios-1 records. It is suggested on the basis of observations of the directionality of certain of the flare related Type II bursts that some of these shocks could have been missed by the spacecraft. This implies that, in the absence of directional information, correlation of an observed interplanetary shock wave with a solar Type II burst may not always lead to a unique result.     

Some characteristics of propagation of flare- or CME-associated interplanetary shock waves

Many interplanetary shock waves have a fast mode MHD wave Mach number between one and two and the ambient solar wind plasma and magnetic field are known to fluctuate. Therefore a weak, fast, MHD interplanetary shock wave propagating into a fluctuating solar wind region or into a solar wind stream will be expected to vary its strength.It is possible that an interplanetary shock wave, upon entering such a region will weaken its strength and degenerate into a fast-mode MHD wave. It is even possible that the shock may dissipate and disappear.A model for the propagation of a solar flare - or CME (Coronal Mass Ejections) - associated interplanetary shock wave is given. A physical mechanism is described to calculate the probability that a weak shock which enters a turbulent solar wind region will degenerate into a MHD wave. That is, the shock would disappear as an entropy-generate entity. This model also suggests that most interplanetary shock waves cannot propagate continuously with a smooth shock surface. It is suggested that the surface of an interplanetary shock will be highly distorted and that parts of the shock surface can degenerate into MHD waves or even disappear during its global propagation through interplanetary space. A few observations to support this model will be briefly described.Finally, this model of shock propagation also applies to corotating shocks. As corotating shocks propagate into fluctuating ambient solar wind regions, shocks may degenerate into waves or disappear.     

Propagation and interaction of interplanetary transient disturbances. Numerical simulations

We study the heliocentric evolution of ICME-like disturbances and their associated transient forward shocks (TFSs) propagating in the interplanetary (IP) medium comparing the solutions of a hydrodynamic (HD) and magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models using the ZEUS-3D code [Stone, J.M., Norman, M.L., 1992. Zeus-2d: a radiation magnetohydrodynamics code for astrophysical flows in two space dimensions. i – the hydrodynamic algorithms and tests. Astrophysical Journal Supplement Series 80, 753–790]. The simulations show that when a fast ICME and its associated IP shock propagate in the inner heliosphere they have an initial phase of about quasi-constant propagation speed (small deceleration) followed, after a critical distance (deflection point), by an exponential deceleration. By combining white light coronograph and interplanetary scintillation (IPS) measurements of ICMEs propagating within 1 AU [Manoharan, P.K., 2005. Evolution of coronal mass ejections in the inner heliosphere: a study using white-light and scintillation images. Solar Physics 235 (1–2), 345–368], such a critical distance and deceleration has already been inferred observationally. In addition, we also address the interaction between two ICME-like disturbances: a fast ICME 2 overtaking a previously launched slower ICME 1. After interaction, the leading ICME 1 accelerates and the tracking ICME 2 decelerates and both ICMEs tend to arrive at 1 AU having similar speeds. The 2-D HD and MHD models show similar qualitative results for the evolution and interaction of these disturbances in the IP medium.     

Corotating events in the energy range 4–13 MeV as observed on board Helios 1 and 2 in 1975 and 1976

Intensity increases of 4 – 13 MeV protons correlated with recurrent high speed solar wind streams were observed on board Helios 1 and 2 at heliocentric distances between 0.3 and 1.0 AU. Study of events which occurred in the time period 1975 – 1976 showed that recurrent fast solar wind streams were sometimes not accompanied by corotating events and small events were more frequently observed than large corotating events, which occurred only occasionally. The explanation for these phenomena seems to be the variation of the number of suprathermal particles injected into the acceleration process. Radial gradients of corotating events from February till April 1976 were investigated. The gradient changed its sign in successive solar rotations and exhibited strong time dependence inside 1 AU. Clearly negative gradients were measured in corotating events which occurred in February and April 1976. These observations showed that probably there were no stationary corotating structures in interplanetary space. We suggest that this effect is related to local disturbances of solar origin, e. g. flare initiated shocks.     

1980年11月6日—7日耀斑后冕拱的激活机制

1980年11月6日耀斑后冕拱(Post-flare coronal arch)在母耀斑(AR2779)开始后3小时形成, 并在形成后11小时和25小时两次激活。两次激活均由双带耀斑的增长环系所致。本文提出了激波加热和Petschek重连是该冕拱有效的激活机制。导出并求解了考虑辐射损失、热传导、激波加热和Petschek重连加热的冕拱能量方程。理论计算结果与Svestka根据SMM空间资料所给出的该冕拱的激活曲线基本符合。      

On the early phase of relativistic solar particle events: Are there signatures of acceleration mechanism?

Many physical processes precede and accompany the solar energetic particles (SEP) occurrence on the Earth’s orbit. Explosive energy release on the Sun gives rise to a flare and a coronal mass ejection (CME). X-ray and gamma emissions are believed to be connected with flares. Radio emission is signature of disturbances traveling through the corona and interplanetary space. Particles can gain energy both in the flare and the accompanying wave processes. The beginning of the SEP events has the advantage of being the phase most close to the time of acceleration. Influence of interplanetary transport is minimal in the case of first arriving relativistic solar protons recorded by ground based neutron monitors in so called ground-level enhancements (GLE). The early phase of the SEP events attracts attention of many scientists searching for the understanding of particle acceleration. However, they come to the opposite conclusions. While some authors find arguments for coronal mass ejections as a sole accelerator of SEPs, others prove a flare to be the SEP origin. Here, the circumstances of SEP generation for several GLEs of the 23rd solar cycle are considered. Timing of X-ray, CME, and radio emissions shows a great variety from event to event. However, the time of particle ejection from the Sun is closer to maximum of X-ray emission than to any other phenomena considered. No correlation is found between the particle fluxes and the CME characteristics.     

Radio-scintillation observations of interplanetary disturbances

Recent developments in the studies of interplanetary disturbances by scintillation (IPS) techniques are briefly reviewed. The turbulent post-shock region of an interplanetary disturbance produces transient enhancements in the scintillation level and the flow speed in many cases. An empirical method to determine three-dimensional angular distribution of propagation speed of the disturbance on the basis of IPS measurements of post-shock flow speeds is applied to 17 events which took place in 1978–1981. Among them, four representative examples including two events which were associated with disappearing solar filaments are described in detail. Several disturbances had oblate configurations; the latitudinal extent is smaller than the longitudinal extent. On an average, the angular distribution of propagation speed at 1 AU heliocentric distance is quasi-isotropic over a longitudinal range of 100° centered at the normal of relevant solar phenomenon. The net excess mass and energy in an interplanetary disturbance associated with a disappearing solar filament can be comparable to those of an interplanetary disturbance associated with a large solar flare.