Propagation and interaction of interplanetary transient disturbances. Numerical simulations

We study the heliocentric evolution of ICME-like disturbances and their associated transient forward shocks (TFSs) propagating in the interplanetary (IP) medium comparing the solutions of a hydrodynamic (HD) and magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models using the ZEUS-3D code [Stone, J.M., Norman, M.L., 1992. Zeus-2d: a radiation magnetohydrodynamics code for astrophysical flows in two space dimensions. i – the hydrodynamic algorithms and tests. Astrophysical Journal Supplement Series 80, 753–790]. The simulations show that when a fast ICME and its associated IP shock propagate in the inner heliosphere they have an initial phase of about quasi-constant propagation speed (small deceleration) followed, after a critical distance (deflection point), by an exponential deceleration. By combining white light coronograph and interplanetary scintillation (IPS) measurements of ICMEs propagating within 1 AU [Manoharan, P.K., 2005. Evolution of coronal mass ejections in the inner heliosphere: a study using white-light and scintillation images. Solar Physics 235 (1–2), 345–368], such a critical distance and deceleration has already been inferred observationally. In addition, we also address the interaction between two ICME-like disturbances: a fast ICME 2 overtaking a previously launched slower ICME 1. After interaction, the leading ICME 1 accelerates and the tracking ICME 2 decelerates and both ICMEs tend to arrive at 1 AU having similar speeds. The 2-D HD and MHD models show similar qualitative results for the evolution and interaction of these disturbances in the IP medium.     

ICMEs Likely From the Same Active Region Observed by Both Helios 1 and IMP 8

The chance of an Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection (ICME) observed by widely-separated spacecraft is rare. However, such an event provides us a good opportunity to study the propagation and evolution of ICMEs in the heliosphere. On day 72 of 1975, an ICME was observed by Helios 1 at 0.3 AU, while a similar solar wind structure was observed by IMP 8 at Earth on day 70 of 1975. On the basis of comparison of the plasma signatures and the transit time from Helios 1 to IMP 8, we hypothesize the observed ICMEs by both spacecraft are resulted from the same active region on the solar surface. A one-dimensional MHD model was used to track the ICME from Helios 1 (0.3 AU) to Earth. The observed plasma profiles and timing are close to those predicted by our MHD model and thus, give the supports to the model.      

Evolution of solar wind structures from 0.72 to 1 AU

Understanding the evolution of solar wind structures in the inner heliosphere as they approach the Earth is important to space weather prediction. From the in situ solar wind plasma and magnetic field measurements of Pioneer Venus Orbiter (PVO) at 0.72 AU (1979–1988), and of Wind/Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) missions at 1 AU (1995–2004), we identify and characterize two major solar wind structures, stream interaction regions (SIRs) and interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). The average percentage of SIRs occurring with shocks increases significantly from 3% to 24% as they evolve from 0.72 to 1 AU. The average occurrence rate, radial extent, and bulk velocity variation of SIRs do not change from 0.72 to 1 AU, while peak pressure and magnetic field strength both decrease with the radial evolution of SIRs. Within the 0.28 AU distance from the orbit of Venus to that of Earth, the average fraction of ICMEs with shocks increases from 49% to 66%, and the typical radial extent of ICMEs expands by about a fraction of 1.4, with peak pressure and magnetic field strength decreasing significantly. The mean occurrence rate and expansion velocity of ICMEs do not change from 0.72 to 1 AU.     

1997年1月空间天气事件的三维MHD模拟

以1997年1月空气天气事件期间的观测为依据，在构造了比较接近真实的背景太阳风基础上，进一步利用三维时变的MHD模式，模拟了CME（日冕物质抛射）激发的扰动在行星际空间的传播过程，对地球空间环境的影响及行星际磁场南向分量Bz在1AU的时间经历。模拟结果与WIND卫星的测量进行了比较。结果表明，模拟与观测得到的扰动得到地球的时间、地球空间环境各量的变化及Bz的时间经历基本一致。     

A first step towards proton flux forecasting

We present a preliminary version of a potential tool for real time proton flux prediction which provides proton flux profiles and cumulative fluence profiles at 0.5 and 2 MeV of solar energetic particle events, from their onset up to the arrival of the interplanetary shock at the spacecraft position (located at 1 or 0.4 AU). Based on the proton transportation model by Lario et al. [Lario, D., Sanahuja, B., Heras, A.M. Energetic particle events: efficiency of interplanetary shocks as 50 keV E < 100 MeV proton accelerators. Astrophys. J. 509, 415–434, 1998] and the magnetohydrodynamic shock propagation model of Wu et al. [Wu, S.T., Dryer, M., Han, S.M. Non-planar MHD model for solar flare-generated disturbances in the Heliospheric equatorial plane. Sol. Phys. 84, 395–418, 1983], we have generated a database containing “synthetic” profiles of the proton fluxes and cumulative fluences of 384 solar energetic particle events. We are currently validating the applicability of this code for space weather forecasting by comparing the resulting “synthetic” flux profiles with those of several real events.     

太阳风速度及日球电流片对CME渡越时间的影响

基于1996-2005年88个引起重大地磁暴的CME(日冕物质抛射)事件、1996-2000年的47个CME事件以及1997-2002年的29个全晕状CME事件,结合ACE卫星在1AU处的太阳风和行星际磁场观测资料以及Wilcox Solar Observatory(WSO)天文台的太阳光球层磁图,分析了背景太阳风速度和日球电流片对CME到达1AU处渡越时间预报误差的影响.结果表明,背景太阳风速度与CME渡越时间误差并没有明显的相关性,在考虑了磁云通量管轴相对黄道面夹角的影响后相关性依然不明显.然而日球电流片对CME渡越时间却有明显的影响,对于初速度较小的异侧CME事件,其渡越时间大于同侧事件;而对于具有较大初速度的CME事件,异侧事件的渡越时间明显小于同侧事件.研究结果表明,CME与太阳风以及日球电流片的相互作用并不是简单的对流相互作用,造成高速CME异侧事件快于同侧事件到达地球的因素非常复杂,有待深入研究.      

多种观测数据驱动的三维行星际太阳风MHD模拟

三维磁流体力学（MHD）数值模拟是行星际太阳风研究的重要手段.本文发展了一种由多种观测数据驱动的三维行星际太阳风MHD数值模型.模型的计算区域为0.1AU到1AU附近，使用Lax-Friedrich差分格式在六片网格系统中进行数值求解.边界条件中磁场使用GONG台站观测的光球磁图外推获得，密度通过LASCO观测的白光偏振亮度反演得到，速度根据以上两种观测数据并利用一种基于人工神经网络技术（ANN）的方法得到，温度通过自洽方法根据磁场和密度导出.利用该模型模拟了第2062卡灵顿周（CR2062）时期的行星际太阳风，模拟结果显示出丰富的观测特征，并与OMNI以及Ulysses的实际观测值符合得较好.该模型可用于提供接近真实的行星际太阳风，有助于提高空间天气预报的精度.      

Large geomagnetic storms of extreme solar event periods in solar cycle 23

During extreme solar events such as big flares or/and energetic coronal mass ejections (CMEs) high energy particles are accelerated by the shocks formed in front of fast interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). The ICMEs (and their sheaths) also give rise to large geomagnetic storms which have significant effects on the Earth’s environment and human life. Around 14 solar cosmic ray ground level enhancement (GLE) events in solar cycle 23 we examined the cosmic ray variation, solar wind speed, ions density, interplanetary magnetic field, and geomagnetic disturbance storm time index (D_st). We found that all but one of GLEs are always followed by a geomagnetic storm with D_st  −50 nT within 1–5 days later. Most(10/14) geomagnetic storms have D_st index  −100  nT therefore generally belong to strong geomagnetic storms. This suggests that GLE event prediction of geomagnetic storms is 93% for moderate storms and 71% for large storms when geomagnetic storms preceded by GLEs. All D_st depressions are associated with cosmic ray decreases which occur nearly simultaneously with geomagnetic storms. We also investigated the interplanetary plasma features. Most geomagnetic storm correspond significant periods of southward B_z and in close to 80% of the cases that the B_z was first northward then turning southward after storm sudden commencement (SSC). Plasma flow speed, ion number density and interplanetary plasma temperature near 1 AU also have a peak at interplanetary shock arrival. Solar cause and energetic particle signatures of large geomagnetic storms and a possible prediction scheme are discussed.     

Helios飞船观测到的行星际日冕物质抛射事件

根据异常低的质子温度判据，从Heliosl和2飞船等离子体观测数据中(0．3-1AU)识别出大约160个行星际日冕物质抛射事件(ICME)，并在统计意义上分析了ICME在内日球空间的传播和演化规律．     

Propagation of interplanetary shocks into the Earth’s magnetosphere

This paper is devoted to the study of propagation of disturbances caused by interplanetary shocks (IPS) through the Earth’s magnetosphere. Using simultaneous observations of various fast forward shocks by different satellites in the solar wind, magnetosheath and magnetosphere from 1995 till 2002, we traced the interplanetary shocks into the Earth’s magnetosphere, we calculated the velocity of their propagation into the Earth’s magnetosphere and analyzed fronts of the disturbances. From the onset of disturbances at different satellites in the magnetosphere we obtained speed values ranging from 500 to 1300 km/s in the direction along the IP shock normal, that is in a general agreement with results of previous numerical MHD simulations. The paper discusses in detail a sequence of two events on November 9th, 2002. For the two cases we estimated the propagation speed of the IP shock caused disturbance between the dayside and nightside magnetosphere to be 590 km/s and 714–741 km/s, respectively. We partially attributed this increase to higher Alfven speed in the outer magnetosphere due to the compression of the magnetosphere as a consequence of the first event, and partially to the faster and stronger driving interplanetary shock. High-time resolution GOES magnetic field data revealed a complex structure of the compressional wave fronts at the dayside geosynchronous orbit during these events, with initial very steep parts (10 s). We discuss a few possible mechanisms of such steep front formation in the paper.     

Some characteristics of propagation of flare- or CME-associated interplanetary shock waves

Many interplanetary shock waves have a fast mode MHD wave Mach number between one and two and the ambient solar wind plasma and magnetic field are known to fluctuate. Therefore a weak, fast, MHD interplanetary shock wave propagating into a fluctuating solar wind region or into a solar wind stream will be expected to vary its strength.It is possible that an interplanetary shock wave, upon entering such a region will weaken its strength and degenerate into a fast-mode MHD wave. It is even possible that the shock may dissipate and disappear.A model for the propagation of a solar flare - or CME (Coronal Mass Ejections) - associated interplanetary shock wave is given. A physical mechanism is described to calculate the probability that a weak shock which enters a turbulent solar wind region will degenerate into a MHD wave. That is, the shock would disappear as an entropy-generate entity. This model also suggests that most interplanetary shock waves cannot propagate continuously with a smooth shock surface. It is suggested that the surface of an interplanetary shock will be highly distorted and that parts of the shock surface can degenerate into MHD waves or even disappear during its global propagation through interplanetary space. A few observations to support this model will be briefly described.Finally, this model of shock propagation also applies to corotating shocks. As corotating shocks propagate into fluctuating ambient solar wind regions, shocks may degenerate into waves or disappear.     

运用一维太阳风MHD CE/SE模型预报行星际激波到达时间

在一维太阳风磁流体(MHD)数值模拟中, 应用时空守恒元和解元(Conservation Element/Solution Element, CE/SE)方法, 建立了一个行星际激波扰动传播模型(1D-MHD (CE/SE)模型), 用来预报行星际激波到达时间. 收集了1997年2月至2002年8月间的137个激波事件, 对激波到达地球轨道附近的传播时间进行了预测, 并将预报结果与STOA, ISPM, HAFv.2以及SPM模型所得结果进行比较. 对于相同的样本事件, 1D-MHD (CE/SE)模型给出的渡越时间平均绝对值误差并不大于其他4个模型, 且该模型预报的相对误差小于10 %的事件占25.6 %, 小于30 %的事件占69.3 %, 小于50 %的事件占87.6 %, 其预报精度与其他模型相比基本相当. 这表明该模型在空间天气的激波到达时间预报方面有潜在的应用价值.      

日冕边界条件与太阳风共转相互作用

本文根据第二十太阳周太阳风数据的统计分析结果,用太阳风二维理想流体模型探讨近太阳区的不同边界条件太阳风与共转相互作用对1AU处太阳风各参数影响,得到共转相互作用不能引起太阳风速度和马赫数的反相扰动,推断在太阳风加速区温度扰动对太阳风的影响最大,而在太阳风传播区速度扰动对太阳风的影响最大.      

Heliospheric asymmetries due to the action of the interstellar magnetic field

We discuss the asymmetry of the heliospheric discontinuities obtained from the analysis of 3D modeling of the solar wind (SW) interaction with local interstellar medium (LISM). The flow of charged particles is governed by the ideal MHD equations and the flow of neutral particles is described by the Boltzmann equation. The emphasis is made on the asymmetries of the termination shock (TS) and the heliopause under the combined action of the interstellar and interplanetary magnetic fields (ISMF and IMF) in the presence of neutral hydrogen atoms whose transport through the heliosphere is modeled kinetically, using a Monte Carlo approach. We show that the deflection of neutral hydrogen flow from its original direction in the unperturbed LISM is highly anisotropic and evaluate a possible angle between the hydrogen deflection plane measured in the SOHO SWAN experiment and the plane containing the ISMF and LISM velocity vectors for different ISMF strengths. It is shown that the ISMF of a strength greater than 4 μG can account for the 10 AU difference in the TS heliocentric difference observed during its crossing by the Voyager 1 and Voyager 2 spacecraft, which however results in a larger discrepancy between the calculated and observed velocity distributions. The effect of a strong ISMF on the distribution of plasma quantities in the inner heliosheath and on 2–3 kHz radio emission is discussed.     

Propagation of normal and faster CMEs in the interplanetary medium

We have analyzed 101 Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) events and their associated interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs) and interplanetary (IP) shocks observed during the period 1997–2005 from the list given by Mujiber Rahman et al. (2012). The aim of the present work is to correlate the interplanetary parameters such as, the speeds of IP shocks and ICMEs, CME transit time and their relation with CME parameters near the Sun. Mainly, a group of 10 faster CME events (V_INT > 2200 km/s) are compared with a list of 91 normal events of Manoharan et al. (2004). From the distribution diagrams of CME, ICME and IP shock speeds, we note that a large number of events tends to narrow towards the ambient (i.e., background) solar wind speed (∼500 km/s) in agreement with the literature. Also, we found that the IP shock speed and the average ICME speed measured at 1 AU are well correlated. In addition, the IP shock speed is found to be slightly higher than the ICME speed. While the normal events show CME travel time in the range of ∼40–80 h with a mean value of 65 h, the faster events have lower transit time with a mean value of 40 h. The effect of solar wind drag is studied using the correlation of CME acceleration with interplanetary (IP) acceleration and with other parameters of ICMEs. While the mean acceleration values of normal and faster CMEs in the LASCO FOV are 1 m/s², 18 m/s², they are −1.5 m/s² and −14 m/s² in the interplanetary medium, respectively. The relation between CME speed and IP acceleration for normal and faster events are found to agree with that of  and  except slight deviations for the faster events. It is also seen that the faster events with less travel time face higher negative acceleration (>−10 m/s²) in the interplanetary medium up to 1 AU.     

Prediction tests by using “ISF” method for the geomagnetic disturbances

A so-called “ISF” prediction method for geomagnetic disturbances caused by solar wind storms blowing to the Earth is suggested. The method is based on a combined approach of solar activity, interplanetary scintillation (I) and geomagnetic disturbance observations during the period 1966–1982 together with the dynamics of solar wind storm propagation (S) and fuzzy mathematics (F). It has been used for prediction tests for 37 geomagnetic disturbance events during the descending solar activity phase 1984–1985, and was presented in 33rd COSPAR conference. Here, it has been improved by consideration of the three dimensional propagation characteristics of each event, the search for the best radio source and the influence of the southward components of interplanetary magnetic fields on the geomagnetic disturbances. It is used for prediction tests for 24 larger geomagnetic disturbance events that produced space anomalies during the period 1980–1999. The main results are: (1) for the onset time of the geomagnetic disturbance, the relative error between the observation, T_obs, and the prediction, T_pred, ΔT_pred/T_obs  10% for 45.8% of all events, 30% for 78.3% and >30% for only 21.7%; (2) for the magnetic disturbance magnitude, the relative error between the observation, ∑K_p,obs, and the prediction, ∑K_p,pred, Δ∑K_p,pred/∑K_p,obs  10% for 41.6% of all events, 30% for 79% and 45% for 100%. This shows that the prediction method described here has encouraging prospects for improving predictions of large geomagnetic disturbances in space weather events.     

太阳风中动力论Alfven波湍流谱(b)二次激发

根据行星际Alfven湍流是由动力论Alfven波集合形成的模型理论。将行星际Alfven湍流分为三个区域:湍流耗散区、二次激发区和湍流惯性区。并对各区湍流谱的特性分别给出解释。由动力论Alfven波的二次激发和衰减,解释了太阳风高速流质子温度高于电子的事实。      

Research Progress of Solar Corona and Interplanetary Physics in China: 2010-2012

The scientific objective of solar corona and interplanetary research is the understanding of the various phenomena related to solar activities and their effects on the space environments of the Earth. Great progress has been made in the study of solar corona and interplanetary physics by the Chinese space physics community during the past years. This paper will give a brief report about the latest progress of the corona and interplanetary research in China during the years of 2010?2012. The paper can be divided into the following parts: solar corona and solar wind, CMEICME, magnetic reconnection, energetic particles, space plasma, space weather numerical modeling by 3D SIP-CESE MHD model, space weather prediction methods, and proposed missions. They constitute the abundant content of study for the complicated phenomena that originate from the solar corona, propagate in interplanetary space, and produce geomagnetic disturbances. All these progresses are acquired by the Chinese space physicists, either independently or through international collaborations.      

A Brief Review of Interplanetary Investigations in China from 2014 to 2016

Great progress has been made in the research of solar corona and interplanetary physics by the Chinese scientists during the past two years (2014-2016). Nearly 100 papers were published in this area. In this report, we will give a brief review to these progresses. The investigations include:solar corona, solar wind and turbulence, superhalo electron and energetic particle in the inner heliosphere, solar flares and radio bursts, Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) and their interplanetary counterparts, Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) numerical modeling, CME/shock arrival time prediction, magnetic reconnection, solar variability and its impact on climate. These achievements help us to better understand the evolution of solar activities, solar eruptions, their propagations in the heliosphere, and potential geoeffectiveness. They were achieved by the Chinese solar and space scientists independently or via international collaborations.      

背景太阳风数值模拟的熵守恒格式

背景太阳风研究是根据行星际扰动传播情况预测空间天气状况的基础,磁流体（MHD）模拟是背景太阳风研究的重要手段.采用一种新的数值计算方式,利用Ideal GLM-MHD将计算过程中产生的磁场散度以c_h的速度向计算区域外传播,从而消去磁场散度;重构部分使用受约束的最小二乘法,将磁场散度作为约束条件添加到重构中,进一步对重构后的磁场梯度进行修正;通量计算采用满足热力学第二定律的熵守恒格式,该格式能够确保在计算过程中熵不增,保证数值稳定.研究结果表明,该方法应用于太阳风数值模拟的求解得到了更加稳定的结果.