基于故障树的直升机维修差错分析方法的研究

根据维修差错一人的失误机理、差错的墨菲定律，以及事故链模型和JamesReason模型，提出了基于故障树的主动预先的维修差错分析方法，试图在直升机设计之中和直升机交付使用前，通过这种基于故障树的维修差错分析方法，找出设计中、使用维修及使用管理中出现的问题或维修差错，提出改进措施，防止在使用维修中出现维修差错。通过这种主动事前的预防维修差错分析方法，可以消除或减少维修差错，提高直升机的安全性。     

Aircraft air conditioning system health state estimation and prediction for predictive maintenance

The vast potential of system health monitoring and condition based maintenance on modern commercial aircraft is being realized through the innovative use of Airplane Condition Monitoring System (ACMS) data. However there are few methods addressing the issues of failure prognostics and predictive maintenance for commercial aircraft Air Conditioning System (ACS). This study developed a Bayesian failure prognostics approach using ACMS data for predictive maintenance of ACS. First, a health index characterizing the ACS health state is inferred from a multiple sensor signals using a data driven method. Then a dynamic linear model is proposed to describe the degradation process for failure prognostics. Bayesian inference formulas are carried out for degradation estimation and prediction. The developed approach is applied on a passenger aircraft fleet with ACMS data recorded for one year. The analysis of the case study shows that the developed method can produce satisfactory prognostics results, where all the ACS failure precursors are identified in advance, and the relative errors for the failure time prediction made when just entering the degradation warning stage are less than 8%. This would allow operators to proactively plan future maintenance.     

B737NG航线维护故障模式影响及危害性分析

故障模式影响及危害性分析用于分析产品中每一个可能的故障模式并确定其对产品的影响。本文以国内某航空公司20架B737NG飞机从2005年1月1日至2009年12月31日的航线维护故障数据为基础,对该机型各系统进行故障模式影响及危害性分析,其中着重对起落架系统进行故障模式影响和危害性分析。     

压缩载荷下夹层结构斜坡过渡区域性能分析

建立了泡沫夹层结构斜坡过渡区域的三维(3D)有限元模型,进行了斜坡过渡区域的坡度角分析优化。基于有限元分析软件MSC.Patran/Nastran,建立了考虑斜坡过渡区面板铺层递减的泡沫夹层结构的有限元模型,研究了结构在单轴压缩载荷作用下的力学行为,进一步讨论了坡度角对于夹层结构过渡区域结构强度和稳定性的影响规律。研究结果表明,泡沫夹层结构坡度角在25°~30°时能够达到提高结构承载能力及减轻结构质量的双重目的。     

Crashworthiness uncertainty analysis of typical civil aircraft based on Box–Behnken method

The crashworthiness is an important design factor of civil aircraft related with the safety of occupant during impact accident. It is a highly nonlinear transient dynamic problem and may be greatly influenced by the uncertainty factors. Crashworthiness uncertainty analysis is conducted to investigate the effects of initial conditions, structural dimensions and material properties. Simplified finite element model is built based on the geometrical model and basic physics phenomenon. Box–Behnken sampling and response surface methods are adopted to obtain gradient information.Results show that the proposed methods are effective for crashworthiness uncertainty analysis.Yield stress, frame thickness, impact velocity and angle have great influence on the failure behavior,and yield stress and frame thickness dominate the uncertainty of internal energy. Failure strain and tangent modulus have the smallest influence on the initial peak acceleration, and gradients of mean acceleration increase because the appearance of material plastic deformation and element failure.     

Applying fuzzy bi-dimensional scenario-based model to the assessment of Mars mission architecture scenarios

Sending man to Mars has been a long-held dream of humankind. NASA plans human planetary explorations using approaches that are technically feasible, have reasonable risks and have relatively low costs. This study presents a novel Multi-Attribute Decision Making (MADM) model for evaluating a range of potential mission scenarios for the human exploration of Mars. The three alternatives identified by the Mission Operations Directorate (MOD) at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) include split mission, combo lander and dual scenarios. The proposed framework subsumes the following key methods: first, the conjunction method is used to minimize the number of alternative mission scenarios; second, the Fuzzy Risk Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (RFMEA) is used to analyze the potential failure of the alternative scenarios; third, the fuzzy group Real Option Analysis (ROA) is used to estimate the expected costs and benefits of the alternative scenarios; and fourth, the fuzzy group permutation approach is used to select the optimal mission scenario. We present the results of a case study at NASA’s Johnson Space center to demonstrate: (1) the complexity of mission scenario selection involving subjective and objective judgments provided by multiple space exploration experts; and (2) a systematic and structured method for aggregating quantitative and qualitative data concerning a large number of competing and conflicting mission events.     

钛合金耳片的静载失效分析与结构优化研究

钛合金因比强度高、耐蚀性好、耐热性高等特点被广泛应用于航空、航天、舰船等领域。飞机在襟翼滑轮架侧板、铰链接头、基座等结构部位采用钛合金零件,其中部分零件涉及耳片连接结构。为了对钛合金耳片进行强度分析和结构优化,开展了不同尺寸钛合金耳片的静载试验研究。揭示了钛合金耳片几何尺寸与加载角度对破坏载荷的影响规律;计算获得轴向加载效率系数K_0与角度加载效率系数K_(con1);对典型断口进行了形貌观察,探讨了钛合金耳片在室温静载荷作用下的破坏机制。     

基于灰色理论与专家系统的电子设备在线故障预测方法研究

针对电子设备的渐发性故障,提出了一种基于改进型灰色理论与专家系统的二阶组合故障预测方法.该预测算法不仅能够实现复杂电子设备的单测点故障预测和多测点综合预测,而且结合在线预测的需求,对原始的灰色模型进行了改进,在专家系统推理部分采用了一种位与运算的规则快速匹配算法,提高了诊断的快速性和准确性.试验结果验证了所提出方法的有效性与正确性.     

丁羟基固体推进剂的破坏包络及其演化行为研究

分析了宽温域(-70 ℃～70 ℃)、泛加载速率(2～200 mm/min)条件下丁羟基固体推进剂的拉伸特性,获得了温度、应变率依赖的推进剂破坏包络;进一步采用循环载荷模拟空基反复巡航加载历史,研究了推进剂在服役环境中的破坏包络演化。结果表明：丁羟基固体推进剂的破坏包络满足平移原理,随着加载速率增大,破坏包络面向高温区平移,导致低温可靠性显著降低;经历循环载荷后,破坏包络整体向小断裂延伸率方向下移,导致可靠发射区域显著减小。研究结论将为复杂条件下的发动机设计及其贮存期可靠性分析提供支撑。     

Study on ballistic penetration resistance of titanium alloy TC4, Part II: Numerical analysis

Enhancing containment capability and reducing weight are always great concerns in the design of casings. Ballistic tests can help to mitigate a catastrophic event after a blade out, yet taking time and costing money. A wise way is to hunt for a validated numerical simulation technology, through which the material dynamic behavior over the strain rate range in the ballistic tests should be represented and reasonable failure strain should be defined. The simulation results show that the validation of the numerical simulation technology based on the test data can accurately estimate the absorption energy, describe the physical process and failure mode during the penetration, as well as the failure mechanism. It is found that energy dissipation of projectiles is in manner of compression stage, energy conversion stage, and interactive scrap stage. An effect indicator is proposed, where the factors of critical velocity including impact orientation and mass of projectiles and thickness of casings are considered. The critical velocity presents a linear relation with the effect indicator, which implies the critical velocity obtained by the flat casing could underestimate the capability of the real casing.