Establishment of atmospheric weighted mean temperature model in the polar regions

Due to the special geographical location and extreme climate environment, the polar regions (Antarctic and Arctic) have an important impact on global climate change. Atmospheric weighted mean temperature (Tm) is a crucial parameter in the retrieval of precipitable water vapor (PWV) from the zenith wet delay (ZWD) of ground-based Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) signal propagation. In this paper, the correlation between weighted mean temperature and surface temperature (Ts) is studied firstly. It is shown that the correlation coefficients between Tm and Ts are 0.93 in the Antarctic and 0.94 in the Arctic. The linear regression Tm model and quadratic function Tm model of the Antarctic and the Arctic are established respectively using the radiosonde profiles of 12 stations in the Antarctic and 58 stations in the Arctic from 2008 to 2015. The accuracies of the linear regression Tm model, the quadratic function Tm model and GPT2w Tm model which is a state-of-the-art global Tm model are verified using the radiosonde profiles from 2016 to 2018 in the Antarctic and Arctic. Root Mean Square (RMS) errors of the linear regression Tm model, the quadratic function Tm model and GPT2w Tm model in the Antarctic are 3.07 K, 2.87 K and 4.32 K respectively, and those in the Arctic are 3.53 K, 3.38 K and 4.82 K, which indicates that the quadratic function Tm model has a higher accuracy compared to linear regression Tm model, and the accuracies of the two regional Tm models are better than that of GPT2w Tm model in the polar regions. In order to better evaluate the accuracy of Tm in the PWV retrieval, the PWV values of radiosondes are used for comparisons as the reference value. The RMS errors of PWV derived from the two Tm models are similar for 1.28 mm in the Antarctic and 1 mm in the Arctic respectively. In addition, the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of Tm are analyzed in the polar regions by spectral analysis of Tm data using fast Fourier transform. The results show that the Tm has obvious seasonality and annual periodicity in the polar regions, and the maximum difference between warm season and cold season is about 63 K. After comparing and analyzing the influences of latitude, longitude and elevation on the Tm in the polar regions, it is found that latitude and elevation have a greater influence on the Tm than the longitude. As the latitude and elevation increase, the Tm decreases, and vice versa in the polar regions.     

Maximal admissible mode decision delay in terminal guidance

Mode decision-maker is a critical component in the logic-based Integrated Estimation and Guidance(IEG) system. For the best possible estimation and guidance performance, the mode decision delay of the mode decision-maker should be limited to a range as small as possible. This paper presents a numerical method for computing the maximal admissible mode decision delay that varies with time-to-go. Particular attention has been paid to highly maneuvering target interception in terminal guidance. The results of this research offer useful guidelines for the design of the mode decision-maker in IEG systems.     

基于飞行资源分离的航班延误传播研究

在航班串设计及机组排班过程中,经常涉及飞行资源(飞机、机组)分离的问题。而延误航班的飞行资源分离将导致共享资源的衔接航班发生延误,并传播至后续航班串。本文考虑带有飞行资源分离的航班串,利用基于贝叶斯网络的比例风险回归模型,对资源分离后的航班离港延误进行分析。对比两种不同时刻飞机与机组资源分离方案下,各延误因素对衔接航班离港延误,以及整个后续航班串延误时间的影响,结果表明,不同时刻分离方案会造成不同的延误传播效果。本文为飞机、机组资源分离时刻的选择提供了定量分析方法,结果表明,资源分离时刻的不同对衔接航班的离港延误,以及整个后续航班串延误波及时间的影响都不同。     

飞机动态推出控制策略仿真优化模型

机场离港运行的无序化造成滑行过程中的长时间排队等待及大量燃油浪费。为了减少燃油消耗和废气排放,在已有的动态推出控制策略基础上提出了阶梯函数控制策略(Step function,SPC)和非线性函数动态推出策略(Nonlinear function,NPC)的一般形式,以离港成本为目标,建立了基于停机位等待惩罚的动态推出控制模型,在不延误的前提下提出了一种基于网格参数优化的蒙特卡洛仿真优化算法。通过北京首都机场实际运行数据对推出过程进行仿真计算,并与无控制策略以及传统N-control策略的最优可达解进行仿真对比,结果表明:在不延误的前提下,提出的推出策略可以更加有效地降低平均滑行道滑行时间,NPC策略的离港运行成本和燃油成本可降低45.52%和54.23%,SPC虽然成本节省劣于NPC策略,但是其简单的操作方式可以为离港推出调度方式的改进提供决策支持。     

小卫星侦察星座性能评估研究

针对小卫星侦察星座性能评估问题，从覆盖、成本和弹性三方面对小卫星侦察星座的性能指标进行研究，分别构建了考虑存储容量约束的覆盖能力评估模型、成本估计模型以及弹性能力评估模型。在覆盖能力评估模型中，将卫星存储容量作为约束条件，结合卫星覆盖几何模型分析了卫星对地侦察的工作条件，提出考虑存储容量的覆盖指标计算方法；通过小卫星成本模型(small satellite cost model,SSCM)对星座各分系统的成本进行估计；在弹性评估模型中，提出了星座性能损失率指标，并根据星座失效状态概率函数确定了不同失效状态下星座性能损失率的权重。将上述模型应用于SkySat和吉林一号星座的性能评估过程中，结果表明SkySat比吉林一号覆盖能力强、成本低，弹性差。提出的三个模型可用于评价星座优劣，为小卫星侦察星座的建设和性能评估工作提供参考。     

Statistical study of the time delay of ionospheric TEC storms to geomagnetic storms in Taoyuan,Taiwan

We have studied the time delay of ionospheric storms to geomagnetic storms at a low latitude station Taoyuan (25.02°N, 121.21°E), Taiwan using the Dst and TEC data during 126 geomagnetic storms from the year 2002 to 2014. In addition to the known local time dependence of the time delay, the statistics show that the time delay has significant seasonal characteristics, which can be explained within the framework of the seasonal characteristics of the ionospheric TEC. The data also show that there is no correlation between the time delay and the intensity of magnetic storms. As for the solar activity dependence of the time delay, the results show that there is no relationship between the time delay of positive storms and the solar activity, whereas the time delay of negative storms has weakly negative dependence on the solar activity, with correlation coefficient −0.41. Especially, there are two kinds of extreme events: pre-storm response events and long-time delay events. All of the pre-storm response events occurred during 15–20 LT, manifesting the Equator Ionospheric Anomaly (EIA) feature at Taoyuan. Moreover, the common features of the pre-storm response events suggest the storm sudden commencement (SSC) and weak geomagnetic disturbance before the main phase onset (MPO) of magnetic storms are two main possible causes of the pre-storm response events. By analyzing the geomagnetic indices during the events with long-time delay, we infer that this kind of events may not be caused by magnetic storms, and they might belong to ionospheric Q-disturbances.     

考虑测试性设计缺陷修正延时的测试性增长模型建模与评价方法

针对现有测试性增长模型忽略了测试性设计缺陷的修正延时过程，进而导致测试性增长模型（TGM）跟踪与预计精度低的问题，提出了一种考虑测试性设计缺陷修正延时的测试性增长模型建模理论与方法。首先分析测试性设计缺陷识别与修正之间的延时机理，得到剩余测试性设计缺陷（TDL）具有先增后减的铃形变化趋势；在此基础上，分别以Gamma、Raleigh和Delay-S 3种曲线拟合剩余测试性设计缺陷（RTDL）变化趋势，研究建立基于以上3种曲线考虑修正延时的测试性增长模型；最后，以某机载稳定跟踪平台测试性增长试验数据验证测试性增长模型拟合、跟踪及预计效能。研究结果表明：基于该测试性增长试验数据，Gamma曲线可以精确地拟合剩余测试性设计缺陷变化规律，测试性增长模型跟踪和预计精度可达到10^-2数量级。     

考虑星历误差的天文测角/时间延迟量测组合导航方法

基于太阳震荡的时间延迟是一种新型天文导航量测量，可以提供探测器相对反射天体的距离信息，与星光角距量测量结合，可以提高导航性能。然而，星光角距量测模型与时间延迟量测模型均含有火卫一相对火星的位置矢量，火卫一的星历误差将影响导航精度。针对这一问题，提出了一种基于在线估计的天文测角/时间延迟量测组合导航方法，建立了包含火卫一位置及速度的状态模型，利用星光角距及时间延迟量测量同时对火卫一的位置和速度进行在线估计，仿真结果表明，提出的方法可以有效抑制火卫一星历误差对组合导航精度的影响，为探测器提供高精度的自主导航信息。     

星载相控阵GNSS-R测高系统设计与实验

星载GNSS-R测高系统采用多波束相控阵天线和干涉互相关处理方式,接收北斗导航卫星和GPS导航卫星发射的L波段导航直射信号与海面反射信号,进行海面高度探测。详细介绍GNSS-R测高系统设计与实现、集成和外场试验等,外场试验不仅验证了相控阵GNSS-R测高系统功能,更重要的是验证了核心软件算法的正确性。GNSS-R测高系统适用于中尺度海洋现象的观测,可在时间和空间尺度上扩展雷达高度计的观测能力,并与之相互补充,有利于对复杂海面的中尺度结构进行较高时间分辨率的观测。GNSS-R测高仪为星载高精度海面高度探测提供了新型载荷。     

适用于CEI的GEO卫星相时延解算方法及试验

为解决在实际航天任务中利用连线干涉测量(CEI)技术进行高精度GEO卫星定轨以及共位GEO卫星相对定位时面临的载波相位整周模糊度难题，提出了一种基于卫星下行信号的多弧段融合相位模糊度解算方法，它通过相邻多弧段载波相位值和窄带信号群时延值的融合处理可精确获得无模糊载波相时延观测量。对提出的方法进行了性能仿真和实际外场试验验证，结果表明：在20 km基线上，利用北斗GEO卫星的伪码测距信号和天链卫星的测控信号均成功实现了S频段解载波整周相位模糊，相时延测量精度优于0.1ns，对应GEO卫星定轨精度优于54 m。该方法在国内首次实现了在几十km基线量级上利用几百kHz窄带测控信号获得无模糊载波相时延，具有较好的工程应用前景。