Variations of ionospheric total electron content before three strong earthquakes in the Qinghai-Tibet region

We investigate the ionospheric total electron content (TEC) anomalies occurred in the Qinghai-Tibet region before three large earthquakes (M > 7.0). The temporal and spatial TEC variations were used to detect the ionospheric possible precursors of these earthquakes. We identified two TEC enhancements in the afternoon local time 9 days and 2–3 days before each earthquake, between which a TEC decrement occurred 3–6 days before earthquakes. These anomalies happened in the area of about 30° in latitude and the maximum is localized equatorward from the epicenters. These TEC anomalies can be found in all three earthquakes regardless the geomagnetic conditions. The features of these anomalies have something in common and may have differences from those caused by geomagnetic storms. Our results suggest that these ionospheric TEC perturbations may be precursors of the large earthquakes.     

Ionospheric anomalies observed over South Korea preceding the Great Tohoku earthquake of 2011

We investigated the ionospheric anomalies observed before the Tohoku earthquake, which occurred near the northeast coast of Honshu, Japan on 11 March, 2011. Based on data from a ground-based Global Positioning System (GPS) network on the Korean Peninsula, ionospheric anomalies were detected in the total electron content (TEC) during the daytime a few days before earthquake. Ionospheric TEC anomalies appeared on 5, 8 and 11 March. In particular, the ionospheric disturbances on 8 March evidenced a remarkable increase in TEC. The GPS TEC variation associated with the Tohoku earthquake was an increase of approximately 20 total electron content units (TECU), observed simultaneously in local and global TEC measurements. To investigate these pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies, space weather conditions such as the solar activity index (F10.7) and geomagnetic activity indices (the Kp and Dst indices) were examined. We also created two-dimensional TEC maps to visual the spatial variations in the ionospheric anomalies preceding the earthquake.     

A nonlinear background removal method for seismo-ionospheric anomaly analysis under a complex solar activity scenario: A case study of the M9.0 Tohoku earthquake

A precise determination of ionospheric total electron content (TEC) anomaly variations that are likely associated with large earthquakes as observed by global positioning system (GPS) requires the elimination of the ionospheric effect from irregular solar electromagnetic radiation. In particular, revealing the seismo-ionospheric anomalies when earthquakes occurred during periods of high solar activity is of utmost importance. To overcome this constraint, a multiresolution time series processing technique based on wavelet transform applicable to global ionosphere map (GIM) TEC data was used to remove the nonlinear effect from solar radiation for the earthquake that struck Tohoku, Japan, on 11 March, 2011. As a result, it was found that the extracted TEC have a good correlation with the measured solar extreme ultraviolet flux in 26–34 nm (EUV_26–34) and the 10.7 cm solar radio flux (F_10.7). After removing the influence of solar radiation origin in GIM TEC, the analysis results show that the TEC around the forthcoming epicenter and its conjugate were significantly enhanced in the afternoon period of 8 March 2011, 3 days before the earthquake. The spatial distributions of the TEC anomalous and extreme enhancements indicate that the earthquake preparation process had brought with a TEC anomaly area of size approximately 1650 and 5700 km in the latitudinal and longitudinal directions, respectively.     

Ionospheric anomalies of local earthquakes detected by GPS TEC measurements using data from Tashkent and Kitab stations

This paper reports the ionospheric anomalies observed during strong local earthquakes (M?5.0) which occurred mostly in and around Uzbekistan in seismically active zones, during years 2006 to 2009 within approximately 1000 km distance from the observing GPS stations located in Tashkent and Kitab, Uzbekistan. The solar and geomagnetic conditions were quiet during occurrence of the selected strong earthquakes. We produce Total Electron Content (TEC) time series over both sites and apply them to detect anomalous TEC signals preceding or accompanying the local earthquakes. The results show anomalous increase or decrease of TEC before or during the earthquakes. In general the anomalies occurred 1–7 days before the earthquakes as ionospheric electromagnetic precursors. To identify the anomalous values of TEC we calculated differential TEC (dTEC). dTEC is obtained by subtracting monthly averaged diurnal vTEC from the values of observed vTEC at each epoch. This procedure removes normal diurnal variations of vTEC. The present results are in good agreement with the previous observations on ionospheric earthquake precursors reported by various researchers.     

On the importance of total electron content enhancements during the extreme solar minimum

Observations of ionospheric vertical total electron content (vTEC) from European ground-based Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) receivers during the period January 2008–January 2010 are used to investigate, for the first time, vTEC sensitivity to weak geomagnetic disturbances under extreme solar minimum conditions. This study shows a significant number of events for the period in question, all of which exhibited some form of exceptionally large values of vTEC during small-magnitude geomagnetic disturbances. To illustrate our point on the importance of vTEC enhancements during the extreme solar minimum and its relevance for the current GNSS and future Galileo applications, we present in this paper the results associated with two significant events that both occurred in equinoctial months. The 10–12 October 2009 event of anomalous TEC enhancement at two distant mid-latitude locations HERS (0.3 E; 50.9 N) and NICO (33.4 E, 35.1 N) is discussed in the context of strong vTEC variations during the well established ionospheric storm on 11 October 2008. We conclude with a short summary of the new findings and their consequences on ionospheric monitoring and modelling for operational communication and navigation systems.     

Surface latent heat flux anomalies quasi-synchronous with ionospheric disturbances before the 2007 Pu’er earthquake in China

One of various mechanisms of pre-earthquake lithosphere–atmosphere–ionosphere coupling as possible explanation of the seismo-ionospheric effects is connected with the release of latent heat. Abnormal variations of ionospheric electromagnetic parameters possibly related to the 2007 Ms 6.4 Pu’er earthquake in China were reported. This paper attempts to examine whether there were abnormal changes of surface latent heat flux (SLHF) linked with this pre-earthquake ionospheric disturbances. The spatio-temporal statistical analyzes of multi-years SLHF data from USA NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Project reveal that local SLHF enhancements appeared 11, 10 and 7 days before the Pu’er earthquake, respectively. As contrasted to the formerly reported local ionospheric Ne enhancement 9 days before the shock observed by DEMETER satellite, it is discovered that the SLHF and Ne anomalies are quasi-synchronous and have good spatial correspondence with the epicentre and the local active faults. This is valuable for understanding the seismogenic coupling processes and for recognizing earthquake anomaly with multiple parameters from integrated Earth observation system.     

Comparative analysis of TEC disturbances over tropical cyclone zones in the North–West Pacific Ocean

In this paper, we study ionospheric total electron content (TEC) disturbances associated with tropical cyclones (TCs). The study relies on the statistical analysis of six cyclones of different intensity which occurred in the North–West Pacific Ocean in September–November 2005. We have used TEC data from the international network of two-frequency ground-based GPS receivers and NCEP/NCAR meteorological archive. TEC variations of different period ranges (02–20 and 20–60 min) are shown to be more intense during TC peaks under quiet geomagnetic conditions. The highest TEC variation amplitudes are registered when the wind speed in the cyclone and the TC area are maximum. The intensification of TEC disturbances is more pronounced when several cyclones occur simultaneously. We have revealed that the ionospheric response to TC can be observed only after the cyclone has reached typhoon intensity. The ionospheric response is more pronounced at low satellite elevation angles.     

Ionospheric disturbances on 8 September, 2010: Was it connected with the incoming moderate Chongqing earthquake?

Earthquake prediction stimulates the searches for a correlation between seismic activity and ionospheric anomalies. Contrary to common focuses on strong earthquakes, we report the ionospheric disturbances, 2 days before a moderate Ms = 4.7 Chongqing earthquake (29.4°N, 105.5°E, depth = 7.0 km, occurred at 21:21 LT, 10 September, 2010) with the data of ground-based ionosondes and IGS receivers. The data covering the period under the quiet geomagnetic conditions and a geomagnetic storm was analyzed with upper and lower bounds. It is found that there were significant enhancements of foF2 and total electron content (TEC) on the afternoon of 8 September, 2010, with a limited area close to the epicentre, which was different from the feature of ionospheric perturbations triggered by the geomagnetic storm on 15 September. Taking into account the heliogeomagnetical condition, we conclude that the observed ionospheric enhancements were very likely associated with the forthcoming moderate Chongqing earthquake, which implies that the relationship between the amplitudes of ionospheric disturbances and earthquakes is very complicated.     

Thermal and TEC anomalies detection using an intelligent hybrid system around the time of the Saravan,Iran, (Mw = 7.7) earthquake of 16 April 2013

A powerful earthquake of M_w = 7.7 struck the Saravan region (28.107° N, 62.053° E) in Iran on 16 April 2013. Up to now nomination of an automated anomaly detection method in a non linear time series of earthquake precursor has been an attractive and challenging task. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) have revealed strong potentials in accurate time series prediction. This paper presents the first study of an integration of ANN and PSO method in the research of earthquake precursors to detect the unusual variations of the thermal and total electron content (TEC) seismo-ionospheric anomalies induced by the strong earthquake of Saravan. In this study, to overcome the stagnation in local minimum during the ANN training, PSO as an optimization method is used instead of traditional algorithms for training the ANN method. The proposed hybrid method detected a considerable number of anomalies 4 and 8 days preceding the earthquake. Since, in this case study, ionospheric TEC anomalies induced by seismic activity is confused with background fluctuations due to solar activity, a multi-resolution time series processing technique based on wavelet transform has been applied on TEC signal variations. In view of the fact that the accordance in the final results deduced from some robust methods is a convincing indication for the efficiency of the method, therefore the detected thermal and TEC anomalies using the ANN + PSO method were compared to the results with regard to the observed anomalies by implementing the mean, median, Wavelet, Kalman filter, Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Genetic Algorithm (GA) methods. The results indicate that the ANN + PSO method is quite promising and deserves serious attention as a new tool for thermal and TEC seismo anomalies detection.     

Statistical seismo-ionospheric precursors of M7.0+ earthquakes in Circum-Pacific seismic belt by GPS TEC measurements

The Circum-Pacific seismic belt is the region heavily affected by earthquakes in the world. The relationship between earthquake (e.g., the geographic location, occurrence time, magnitude, and focal depth) and ionospheric anomalies in the belt was investigated using 100 M7.0+ earthquakes during 2006–2015. The ground-based GPS measurements and global ionosphere map (GIM) data were used for the analyses of the ionospheric variations preceding the earthquakes. The results indicated that the occurrence rate of total electron content (TEC) anomalies was proportional to the magnitude and inversely proportional to the focal depth to a certain degree, and the occurrence frequency of anomalies had a rising trend with the days getting close to the main shock. The occurrence rate of TEC anomalies in the Southern hemisphere was larger than that in the Northern hemisphere. Besides, the spatial characteristics of TEC anomalies showed that the anomalies in low-middle latitudes did not coincide with the epicenter, sometimes the anomalies were also observed in the corresponding conjugated region. However, the TEC anomalies in the high latitude usually appeared around the epicenter and within the seismogenic zone while no TEC anomalies appeared in the conjugated area. These results may have potential applications to the earthquake prediction in the Circum-Pacific seismic belt.     

Global characteristics of ionospheric electric fields and disturbances during the first hours of magnetic storms

The ionospheric plasma density can be significantly disturbed during magnetic storms. In the conventional scenario of ionospheric storms, the negative storm phases with plasma density decreases are caused by neutral composition changes, and the positive storm phases with plasma density increases are often related to atmospheric gravity waves. However, recent studies show that the global redistribution of the ionospheric plasma is dominated primarily by electric fields during the first hours of magnetic storms. In this paper, we present the measurements of ionospheric disturbances by the DMSP satellites and GPS network during the magnetic storm on 6 April 2000. The DMSP measurements include the F region ion velocity and density at the altitude of ∼840 km, and the GPS receiver network provides total electron content (TEC) measurements. The storm-time ionospheric disturbances show the following characteristics. The plasma density is deeply depleted in a latitudinal range of ∼20° over the equatorial region in the evening sector, and the depletions represent plasma bubbles. The ionospheric plasma density at middle latitudes (20°–40° magnetic latitudes) is significantly increased. The dayside TEC is increased simultaneously over a large latitudinal range. An enhanced TEC band forms in the afternoon sector, goes through the cusp region, and enters the polar cap. All the observed ionospheric disturbances occur within 1–5 h from the storm sudden commencement. The observations suggest that penetration electric fields play a major role in the rapid generation of equatorial plasma bubbles and the simultaneous increases of the dayside TEC within the first 2 h during the storm main phase. The ionospheric disturbances at later times may be caused by the combination of penetration electric fields and neutral wind dynamo process.     

Plasmaspheric electron content derived from GPS TEC and FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC measurements: Solar minimum condition

The plasmaspheric electron content (PEC) was estimated by comparison of GPS TEC observations and FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC radio occultation measurements at the extended solar minimum of cycle 23/24. Results are retrieved for different seasons (equinoxes and solstices) of the year 2009. COSMIC-derived electron density profiles were integrated up to the height of 700 km in order to retrieve estimates of ionospheric electron content (IEC). Global maps of monthly median values of COSMIC IEC were constructed by use of spherical harmonics expansion. The comparison between two independent measurements was performed by analysis of the global distribution of electron content estimates, as well as by selection specific points corresponded to mid-latitudes of Northern America, Europe, Asia and the Southern Hemisphere. The analysis found that both kinds of observations show rather similar diurnal behavior during all seasons, certainly with GPS TEC estimates larger than corresponded COSMIC IEC values. It was shown that during daytime both GPS TEC and COSMIC IEC values were generally lower at winter than in summer solstice practically over all specific points. The estimates of PEC (h > 700 km) were obtained as a difference between GPS TEC and COSMIC IEC values. Results of comparative study revealed that for mid-latitudinal points PEC estimates varied weakly with the time of a day and reached the value of several TECU for the condition of solar minimum. Percentage contribution of PEC to GPS TEC indicated the clear dependence from the time with maximal values (more than 50–60%) during night-time and lesser values (25–45%) during day-time.     

Change in refractivity of the atmosphere and large variation in TEC associated with some earthquakes,observed from GPS receiver

The present study reports the analysis of GPS based TEC for our station Surat (21.16°N, 72.78°E) located at the northern crest of equatorial anomaly region in India at times close to some earthquake events (M ? 5) during the year 2009 in India and its neighbouring regions. The TEC data used in the study are obtained from GPS Ionospheric Scintillation and TEC Monitoring (GISTM) system. The TEC data has been analysed corresponding to 11 earthquakes in low solar activity period and quiet geomagnetic condition. We found that, out of 11 cases of earthquakes (M > 5) there were seven cases in which enhancement in TEC occurred on earthquake day and in other four cases there was depletion in TEC on earthquake day. The variation in refractivity prior to earthquake was significant for the cases in which the epicentre lied within a distance of 600 km from the receiving station. By looking into the features on temporal enhancement and depletion of TEC a prediction was made 3–2 days prior to an earthquake (on 28 October 2009 in Bhuj – India). The paper includes a brief discussion on the method of potentially identifying an impending earthquake from ionospheric data.     

Analysis of the ionosphere/plasmasphere electron content variability during strong geomagnetic storm

The ionosphere/plasmasphere electron content (PEC) variations during strong geomagnetic storms in November 2004 were estimated by combining of mid-latitude Kharkov incoherent scatter radar observations and GPS TEC data derived from global TEC maps. The comparison between two independent measurements was performed by analysis of the height-temporal distribution for specific location corresponding to the mid-latitudes of Europe. The percentage contribution of PEC to GPS TEC indicated the clear dependence from the time with maximal values (more than 70%) during night-time. During day-time the lesser values (30–45%) were observed for quiet geomagnetic conditions and rather high values of the PEC contribution to GPS TEC (up to 90%) were observed during strong negative storm. These changes can be explained by the competing effects of electric fields and winds, which tend to raise the layer to the region with lower loss rate and movement of the ionospheric plasma to the plasmasphere.     

Response of the ionosphere to super geomagnetic storms: Observations and modeling

The relative importance of the main drivers of positive ionospheric storms at low-mid latitudes is studied using observations and modeling for the first time. In response to a rare super double geomagnetic storm during 07–11 November 2004, the low-mid latitude (17°–48°N geomag. lat.) ionosphere produced positive ionospheric storms in peak electron density (NmF2) in Japan longitudes (≈125°–145°E) on the day of main phase (MP1) onset (06:30 LT) and negative ionospheric storms in American longitudes (≈65°–120°W) on the following day of MP1 onset (13:00–16:00 LT). The relative effects of the main drivers of the positive ionospheric storms (penetrating daytime eastward electric field, and direct and indirect effects of equatorward neutral wind) are studied using the Sheffield University Plasmasphere Ionosphere Model (SUPIM). The model results show that the penetrating daytime (morning–noon) eastward electric field shifts the equatorial ionisation anomaly crests in NmF2 and TEC (total electron content) to higher than normal latitudes and reduces their values at latitudes at and within the anomaly crests while the direct effects of the equatorward wind (that reduce poleward plasma flow and raise the ionosphere to high altitudes of reduced chemical loss) combined with daytime production of ionisation increase NmF2 and TEC at latitudes poleward of the equatorial region; the later effects can be major causes of positive ionospheric storms at mid latitudes. The downwelling (indirect) effect of the wind increases NmF2 and TEC at low latitudes while its upwelling (indirect) effect reduces NmF2 and TEC at mid latitudes. The net effect of all main drivers is positive ionospheric storms at low-mid latitudes in Japan longitude, which qualitatively agrees with the observations.     

Ionospheric parameters in the European sector during the magnetic storm of August 25–26, 2018

Variations of ionospheric parameters Total Electron Content (TEC) by GNSS, critical frequency (foF2) by vertical sounding and electron density (Ne) by low-altitude satellite were studied at high, mid and low latitudes of the European sector during the magnetic storm of August 25–26, 2018. During the main phase of the storm the ionospheric F2-layer was under the positive disturbance at mid and low latitudes. Then the transition from the positive to negative ΔfoF2 values occurred at all latitudes. The recovery phase was characterized by negative ionospheric disturbance at all latitudes. This is due to the decrease of thermospheric O/N2 ratio during the recovery phase of the storm. The intense Es layers screened the reflections from the F2-layer on August 26th at high and at low latitudes but at different times. Some blackouts occurred due to the high absorption level at high latitudes. In general, foF2 and TEC data were highly correlated. The major Ne changes were at the low latitudes. In general, Ne data confirmed the ionospheric dynamics revealed with foF2 and TEC.     

Large-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances of auroral origin according to the data of the GPS network and ionosondes

The intensity of large-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances (LS TIDs), registered using measurements of total electron content (TEC) during the magnetic storms on October 29–31, 2003, and on November 7–11, 2004, had been compared with that of local electron density disturbances. The data of TEC measurements at ground-based GPS receivers located near the ionospheric stations and the corresponding values of the critical frequency of the ionospheric F region f_oF2 were used for this purpose. The variations of TEC and f_oF2 were similar for all events mentioned above. The previous assumption that the ionospheric region with vertical extension from 150 to 200 km located near the F-layer maximum mainly contributes to the TEC variations was confirmed for the cases when the electron density disturbance at the F region maximum was not more than 50%. However, this region probably becomes vertically more extended when the electron density disturbance in the ionospheric F region is about 85%.     

The relationship between ionospheric total electron content (TEC) over East Asia and the tropospheric circulation around the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau obtained with a partial correlation method

This paper reports a study on the relationship between ionospheric total electron content (TEC) over East Asia and the tropospheric circulation around the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Ionospheric TEC over East Asia are obtained from 25 observatories during 1996–2004. By applying a partial correlation method which can eliminate the influences of solar and geomagnetic activities, we find no significant correlation between TEC and the Asian zonal circulation index (Iz), but find a positive correlation between the day-to-day variability of TEC and Iz. We suggest that the positive correlation is closely related with the topography of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The dynamical effect on airflow of the plateau can generate vortexes, and the vortexes may continuously excite internal gravity waves (IGWs) which transmit up to the ionosphere and cause regional wave disturbances. This study gives evidence for the dynamical mechanism of ionosphere–troposphere coupling and shows the importance of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in the ionosphere–troposphere coupling over East Asia.     

Use of principal component analysis in the identification of the spatial pattern of an ionospheric total electron content anomalies after China’s May 12, 2008, M = 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake

This paper uses principal component analysis (PCA) to determine the spatial pattern of total electron content (TEC) anomalies in the ionosphere post the China’s Wenchuan Earthquake of 12 May, 2008 (UTC) (M_w = 7.9). PCA and image processing are applied to the global ionospheric map (GIM) with transforms conducted for the time period 08:00–10:00 UT on 12 May 2008. Results show that at a height of approximately 200 km the anomaly is widespread and less intense; however, it becomes more localized with height reaching maximum intensity and localization at an altitude of 300 km. The spatial distribution is remarkably similar to that reported for a TEC anomaly previously identified as a precursor anomaly on May 9, 2008 for the same time period. Potential causes of the results are discussed with emphasis given to vertical acoustic gravity waves based on the spatial pattern identified.     

Pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies before three major earthquakes by GPS-TEC and GIM-TEC data during 2015–2017

The dual-frequency satellite-based measurements from Global Positioning System (GPS) may provide feasible ways of studying and potentially detecting of earthquake (EQ) related anomalies in the ionosphere. In this paper, GPS based Total Electron Content (TEC) data are studied for three major M?>?7.0 EQs in Nepal and Iran-Iraq border during 2015–2017 by implementing statistical procedures on temporal and spatial scale. Previous studies presented different time interval of pre-seismic ionospheric anomalies, however, this study showed that EQs ionospheric precursors may occur within 10?days. Furthermore, the ionospheric anomalies on the suspected day occurred during UT?=?08:00–12:00?h before the main shock. The Global Ionospheric Map TEC (GIM-TEC) data retrieved over the epicenter of M7.8 (Nepal EQ) showed a significant increase of 6 TECU on April 24, 2015 (one day before the main shock), which is recorded by the ground GPS station data of Islamabad (station lies within the EQ preparation zone). Furthermore, the spatial GIM-TEC result imply significant anomalies over the epicenter during the time interval between UT?=?08:00–12:00?h (LT?=?13:00–17:00). For M7.3 (Nepal EQ), the TEC anomalies were detected on May 10, 2015 (2?days before the event) in the temporal data. The spatial TEC data imply the huge clouds over the epicenter at about UT?=?08:00–12:00?h on May 10, 2015, that may be associated with this EQ in the quiet geomagnetic storm conditions. Similarly, temporal and spatial TEC showed anomaly on November 3, 2017, during UT?=?08:00–12:00 (9?days before the Iran-Iraq border EQ) after implementing the statistical method on it. Conversely, there exists a short-term but low magnitude TEC anomaly synchronized with a geomagnetic storm on November 7–8, 2017 (4 to 5?days prior to M7.3 Iran-Iraq border EQ). The diurnal and hourly GIM-TEC and VTEC data also imply the execution of ionospheric anomalies within 10?days prior to all events. All these positive anomalies in TEC may be due to the existence of a huge energy from the epicenter during the EQ preparation period.