Investigation of GPS-TEC measurements using ANN method indicating seismo-ionospheric anomalies around the time of the Chile (Mw = 8.2) earthquake of 01 April 2014

In 94 km NW of Iquique in Chile (19.610°S, 70.776°W) a powerful earthquake of M_w = 8.2 took place at 23:46:47 UTC (20:46:47 LT) on April 01, 2014. Using GPS-TEC (Total Electron Content) measurements, potential unusual variations around the time and location of the Chile earthquake have been detected based on the median and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) methods. The indices D_st, K_p, A_p and F10.7 were used to distinguish pre-earthquake anomalies from the other anomalies related to the solar-geomagnetic activities. Using the median method, striking anomalies in time series of TEC data are observed 4 days before the earthquake at 14:00 and 16:00 UTC. The ANN method detected a number of anomalies, 4 (02:00 and 16:00 UTC) and 13 (24:00 UTC) days preceding the earthquake. The results indicate that the ANN method due to its capability of non linear learning is quite promising and deserves serious attention as a robust predictor tool for seismo-ionospheric anomalies detection.     

An Adaptive Network-based Fuzzy Inference System for the detection of thermal and TEC anomalies around the time of the Varzeghan,Iran, (Mw = 6.4) earthquake of 11 August 2012

Anomaly detection is extremely important for forecasting the date, location and magnitude of an impending earthquake. In this paper, an Adaptive Network-based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) has been proposed to detect the thermal and Total Electron Content (TEC) anomalies around the time of the Varzeghan, Iran, (M_w = 6.4) earthquake jolted in 11 August 2012 NW Iran. ANFIS is the famous hybrid neuro-fuzzy network for modeling the non-linear complex systems. In this study, also the detected thermal and TEC anomalies using the proposed method are compared to the results dealing with the observed anomalies by applying the classical and intelligent methods including Interquartile, Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) methods. The duration of the dataset which is comprised from Aqua-MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) night-time snapshot images and also Global Ionospheric Maps (GIM), is 62 days. It can be shown that, if the difference between the predicted value using the ANFIS method and the observed value, exceeds the pre-defined threshold value, then the observed precursor value in the absence of non seismic effective parameters could be regarded as precursory anomaly. For two precursors of LST and TEC, the ANFIS method shows very good agreement with the other implemented classical and intelligent methods and this indicates that ANFIS is capable of detecting earthquake anomalies. The applied methods detected anomalous occurrences 1 and 2 days before the earthquake. This paper indicates that the detection of the thermal and TEC anomalies derive their credibility from the overall efficiencies and potentialities of the five integrated methods.     

Variations of ionospheric total electron content before three strong earthquakes in the Qinghai-Tibet region

We investigate the ionospheric total electron content (TEC) anomalies occurred in the Qinghai-Tibet region before three large earthquakes (M > 7.0). The temporal and spatial TEC variations were used to detect the ionospheric possible precursors of these earthquakes. We identified two TEC enhancements in the afternoon local time 9 days and 2–3 days before each earthquake, between which a TEC decrement occurred 3–6 days before earthquakes. These anomalies happened in the area of about 30° in latitude and the maximum is localized equatorward from the epicenters. These TEC anomalies can be found in all three earthquakes regardless the geomagnetic conditions. The features of these anomalies have something in common and may have differences from those caused by geomagnetic storms. Our results suggest that these ionospheric TEC perturbations may be precursors of the large earthquakes.     

Genetic algorithm for TEC seismo-ionospheric anomalies detection around the time of the Solomon (Mw = 8.0) earthquake of 06 February 2013

On 6 February 2013, at 12:12:27 local time (01:12:27 UTC) a seismic event registering M_w 8.0 struck the Solomon Islands, located at the boundaries of the Australian and Pacific tectonic plates. Time series prediction is an important and widely interesting topic in the research of earthquake precursors. This paper describes a new computational intelligence approach to detect the unusual variations of the total electron content (TEC) seismo-ionospheric anomalies induced by the powerful Solomon earthquake using genetic algorithm (GA). The GA detected a considerable number of anomalous occurrences on earthquake day and also 7 and 8 days prior to the earthquake in a period of high geomagnetic activities. In this study, also the detected TEC anomalies using the proposed method are compared to the results dealing with the observed TEC anomalies by applying the mean, median, wavelet, Kalman filter, ARIMA, neural network and support vector machine methods. The accordance in the final results of all eight methods is a convincing indication for the efficiency of the GA method. It indicates that GA can be an appropriate non-parametric tool for anomaly detection in a non linear time series showing the seismo-ionospheric precursors variations.     

Change in refractivity of the atmosphere and large variation in TEC associated with some earthquakes,observed from GPS receiver

The present study reports the analysis of GPS based TEC for our station Surat (21.16°N, 72.78°E) located at the northern crest of equatorial anomaly region in India at times close to some earthquake events (M ? 5) during the year 2009 in India and its neighbouring regions. The TEC data used in the study are obtained from GPS Ionospheric Scintillation and TEC Monitoring (GISTM) system. The TEC data has been analysed corresponding to 11 earthquakes in low solar activity period and quiet geomagnetic condition. We found that, out of 11 cases of earthquakes (M > 5) there were seven cases in which enhancement in TEC occurred on earthquake day and in other four cases there was depletion in TEC on earthquake day. The variation in refractivity prior to earthquake was significant for the cases in which the epicentre lied within a distance of 600 km from the receiving station. By looking into the features on temporal enhancement and depletion of TEC a prediction was made 3–2 days prior to an earthquake (on 28 October 2009 in Bhuj – India). The paper includes a brief discussion on the method of potentially identifying an impending earthquake from ionospheric data.     

A nonlinear background removal method for seismo-ionospheric anomaly analysis under a complex solar activity scenario: A case study of the M9.0 Tohoku earthquake

A precise determination of ionospheric total electron content (TEC) anomaly variations that are likely associated with large earthquakes as observed by global positioning system (GPS) requires the elimination of the ionospheric effect from irregular solar electromagnetic radiation. In particular, revealing the seismo-ionospheric anomalies when earthquakes occurred during periods of high solar activity is of utmost importance. To overcome this constraint, a multiresolution time series processing technique based on wavelet transform applicable to global ionosphere map (GIM) TEC data was used to remove the nonlinear effect from solar radiation for the earthquake that struck Tohoku, Japan, on 11 March, 2011. As a result, it was found that the extracted TEC have a good correlation with the measured solar extreme ultraviolet flux in 26–34 nm (EUV_26–34) and the 10.7 cm solar radio flux (F_10.7). After removing the influence of solar radiation origin in GIM TEC, the analysis results show that the TEC around the forthcoming epicenter and its conjugate were significantly enhanced in the afternoon period of 8 March 2011, 3 days before the earthquake. The spatial distributions of the TEC anomalous and extreme enhancements indicate that the earthquake preparation process had brought with a TEC anomaly area of size approximately 1650 and 5700 km in the latitudinal and longitudinal directions, respectively.     

A morphological study of GPS-TEC data at Agra and their comparison with the IRI model

The temporal and seasonal variations of Total Electron Content (TEC) are studied at Agra (Geographic Lat. 27.17°N, Long. 78.89°E, Dip: 41.4°), India, which is in the equatorial anomaly region, for a period of 12 months from 01 January to 31 December, 2007 using a Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver. The mean TEC values show a minimum at 0500 h LT (LT = UT + 5.5 h) and a peak value at about 1400 h LT. The lowest TEC values are observed in winter whereas largest values are observed in equinox and summer. Anomalous variations are found during the period of magnetic disturbances. These results are compared with the TEC derived from IRI-2007 using three different options of topside electron density, NeQuick, IRI01-corr, and IRI-2001. A good agreement is found between the TEC obtained at Agra and those derived from IRI models.     

Anomalous TEC variations associated with the strong Pakistan-Iran border region earthquake of 16 April 2013 at a low latitude station Agra,India

Employing a dual frequency GPS-receiver, ionospheric total electron (TEC) measurements have been in progress at Agra station in India (Geograph. lat. 27.2°N, long. 78°E) since 1 April 2006. In this paper, the TEC data have been analyzed for a period of one month from 1 April-1 May 2013 to examine the effect of multiple earthquakes, some of which occurred on the same day of 16 April 2013, and others occurred in the same month of April, 2013 in India and neighboring countries. We process the data using quartile and epoch analysis based statistical techniques and show that out of all the earthquakes, the one of the largest magnitude (M = 7.8) that occurred on Pakistan-Iran border caused anomalous enhancements and depletions in TEC 1–9 days before the occurrence of main sock. The E × B drift mechanism is suggested for the anomalies to occur in which the seismogenic electric field E is generated in a process suggested by Pulinets (2004).     

Ionospheric anomalies of local earthquakes detected by GPS TEC measurements using data from Tashkent and Kitab stations

This paper reports the ionospheric anomalies observed during strong local earthquakes (M?5.0) which occurred mostly in and around Uzbekistan in seismically active zones, during years 2006 to 2009 within approximately 1000 km distance from the observing GPS stations located in Tashkent and Kitab, Uzbekistan. The solar and geomagnetic conditions were quiet during occurrence of the selected strong earthquakes. We produce Total Electron Content (TEC) time series over both sites and apply them to detect anomalous TEC signals preceding or accompanying the local earthquakes. The results show anomalous increase or decrease of TEC before or during the earthquakes. In general the anomalies occurred 1–7 days before the earthquakes as ionospheric electromagnetic precursors. To identify the anomalous values of TEC we calculated differential TEC (dTEC). dTEC is obtained by subtracting monthly averaged diurnal vTEC from the values of observed vTEC at each epoch. This procedure removes normal diurnal variations of vTEC. The present results are in good agreement with the previous observations on ionospheric earthquake precursors reported by various researchers.     

Ionospheric disturbances on 8 September, 2010: Was it connected with the incoming moderate Chongqing earthquake?

Earthquake prediction stimulates the searches for a correlation between seismic activity and ionospheric anomalies. Contrary to common focuses on strong earthquakes, we report the ionospheric disturbances, 2 days before a moderate Ms = 4.7 Chongqing earthquake (29.4°N, 105.5°E, depth = 7.0 km, occurred at 21:21 LT, 10 September, 2010) with the data of ground-based ionosondes and IGS receivers. The data covering the period under the quiet geomagnetic conditions and a geomagnetic storm was analyzed with upper and lower bounds. It is found that there were significant enhancements of foF2 and total electron content (TEC) on the afternoon of 8 September, 2010, with a limited area close to the epicentre, which was different from the feature of ionospheric perturbations triggered by the geomagnetic storm on 15 September. Taking into account the heliogeomagnetical condition, we conclude that the observed ionospheric enhancements were very likely associated with the forthcoming moderate Chongqing earthquake, which implies that the relationship between the amplitudes of ionospheric disturbances and earthquakes is very complicated.     

Use of principal component analysis in the identification of the spatial pattern of an ionospheric total electron content anomalies after China’s May 12, 2008, M = 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake

This paper uses principal component analysis (PCA) to determine the spatial pattern of total electron content (TEC) anomalies in the ionosphere post the China’s Wenchuan Earthquake of 12 May, 2008 (UTC) (M_w = 7.9). PCA and image processing are applied to the global ionospheric map (GIM) with transforms conducted for the time period 08:00–10:00 UT on 12 May 2008. Results show that at a height of approximately 200 km the anomaly is widespread and less intense; however, it becomes more localized with height reaching maximum intensity and localization at an altitude of 300 km. The spatial distribution is remarkably similar to that reported for a TEC anomaly previously identified as a precursor anomaly on May 9, 2008 for the same time period. Potential causes of the results are discussed with emphasis given to vertical acoustic gravity waves based on the spatial pattern identified.     

Two-dimensional ionospheric total electron content map (TEC) seismo-ionospheric anomalies through image processing using principal component analysis

This paper examines China’s Wenchuan Earthquake of 12 May 2008 (UTC) (M_w = 7.9) using principal component analysis and image processing of the global ionospheric map (GIM) for the region. Transforms are conducted for 4, 8, and 9 May 2008. The GIMs are subdivided into 100 (36° in Long. and 18° in Lat.) smaller maps. The smaller maps (71 × 71 pixels) form the transform matrices of corresponding dimensions (2 × 1) through image processing. The transform allows for principle eigenvalues to be assigned to TEC anomalies for May 8 and 9. These may represent the seismo-ionospheric signature described by Zhao et al. (2008). The May 4 result shows no evidence of TEC anomalies. These results are in keeping with the findings of Liu et al. (2009). It is evident in this research that PCA could have the capacity to detect both the seismo-ionospheric signature and determine the approximate location of an earthquake’s epicenter prior to nucleation.     

GPS derived TEC and foF2 variability at an equatorial station and the performance of IRI-model

The ionosphere induces a time delay in transionospheric radio signals such as the Global Positioning System (GPS) signal. The Total Electron Content (TEC) is a key parameter in the mitigation of ionospheric effects on transionospheric signals. The delay in GPS signal induced by the ionosphere is proportional to TEC along the path from the GPS satellite to a receiver. The diurnal monthly and seasonal variations of ionospheric electron content were studied during the year 2010, a year of extreme solar minimum (F10.7 = 81 solar flux unit), with data from the GPS receiver and the Digisonde Portable Sounder (DPS) collocated at Ilorin (Geog. Lat. 8.50°N, Long. 4.50°E, dip −7.9°). The diurnal monthly variation shows steady increases in TEC and F2-layer critical frequency (foF2) from pre-dawn minimum to afternoon maximum and then decreases after sunset. TEC show significant seasonal variation during the daytime between 0900 and 1900 UT (LT = UT + 1 h) with a maximum during the March equinox (about 35 TECU) and minimum during the June solstice (about 24 TECU). The GPS-TEC and foF2 values reveal a weak seasonal anomaly and equinoctial asymmetry during the daytime. The variations observed find their explanations in the amount of solar radiation and neutral gas composition. The measured TEC and foF2 values were compared with last two versions of the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI-2007 and IRI-2012) model predictions using the NeQuick and CCIR (International Radio Consultative Committee) options respectively in the model. In general, the two models give foF2 close to the experimental values, whereas significant discrepancies are found in the predictions of TEC from the models especially during the daytime. The error in height dependent thickness parameter, daytime underestimation of equatorial drift and contributions of electrons from altitudes above 2000 km have been suggested as the possible causes.     

Earthquake induced dynamics at the ionosphere in presence of magnetic storm

The modifications induced in the dynamics of the ionosphere by the major Japan earthquake (EQ) of March 11, 2011 (epicenter at 38.322°N, 142.369°E, M = 8.9) in presence of a magnetic storm are examined by mapping latitudinal variations of F-layer ionization density (NmF2) from 22 stations covering the epicenter zone. The changes forced into the Total Electron Content (TEC) by the major EQ in the magnetic storm ambiance are also examined from the GPS data collected at Guwahati (26° 10′ N, 91° 45’ E), situated in the major fault system of East Asia. The contributions of pre-seismic electric field as well as of magnetic storm time electric field in the observed density variations are brought into the ambit of discussion. The influence of lower atmosphere in shaping TEC features during the study case is highlighted. The effects of solar activity on density variations during such complex ambiances are also addressed.     

Variation of ionospheric total electron content at crest of equatorial anomaly in China from 1997 to 2004

The periodic variation of TEC data at Xiamen station (geographic coordinate: 24.4°N, 118.1°E; geomagnetic coordinate: 13.2°N, 187.4°E) at crest of equatorial anomaly in China from 1997 to 2004 is analyzed. The characteristic of TEC association with solar activity and geomagnetic activity are also analyzed. The method of continuous wavelet, cross wavelet and wavelet coherence transform methods have been used. Analysis results show that long-term variations of TEC at Xiamen station are mainly controlled by the variations of solar activities. Several remarkable components including 128–256 days, 256–512 days and 512–1024 days exist in TEC variations. The TEC data at Xiamen station is in anti-phase with geomagnetic Dst index in semiannual time-scale, but this response only exists during high solar activity. Diurnal variation of TEC is studied for different seasons. Some features like the semiannual anomaly and winter anomaly in TEC have been reported.     

Seismo-ionospheric anomalies in total electron content of the GIM and electron density of DEMETER before the 27 February 2010 M8.8 Chile earthquake

In this paper we examine the pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies by the total electron content (TEC) extracted from GIM (global ionospheric map) and the electron density (Ne) observed by the DEMETER (Detection of Electro-Magnetic Emissions Transmitted from Earthquake Regions) satellite during the 2010 M8.8 Chile earthquake. Temporal variations show the nighttime TEC and Ne simultaneously increase 9–19 days before the earthquake. A cross-comparison of data recorded during the period of 1 February to 3 March in 2006–2010 confirms the above temporal anomalies specifically appear in 2010. The spatial analyses show that the anomalies tend to appear over the epicenter.     

Equatorial total electron content (TEC) at low and high solar activity

Total electron content (TEC) derived from ionosonde data recorded at the station of Korhogo (Lat = 9.33°N, Long = 5.43°W, Dip = 0.67°S) are compared to the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model predicted TEC for high (1999) and low (1994) solar activity conditions. The results show that the model represents the diurnal variation of the TEC as well as a solar activity and seasonal dependence. This variation is closer to that of the ionosonde-inferred TEC at high solar activity. However, at low solar activity the IRI overestimates the ionosonde-inferred TEC. The relative deviation ΔTEC is more prominent in the equinoctial seasons during nighttime hours where it is as high as 70%. At daytime hours, the relative deviation is estimated to 0–30%.     

Towards a GPS-based TEC prediction model for Southern Africa with feed forward networks

In this paper, first results from a national Global Positioning System (GPS) based total electron content (TEC) prediction model over South Africa are presented. Data for 10 GPS receiver stations distributed through out the country were used to train a feed forward neural network (NN) over an interval of at most five years. In the NN training, validating and testing processes, five factors which are well known to influence TEC variability namely diurnal variation, seasonal variation, magnetic activity, solar activity and the geographic position of the GPS receivers were included in the NN model. The database consisted of 1-min data and therefore the NN model developed can be used to forecast TEC values 1 min in advance. Results from the NN national model (NM) were compared with hourly TEC values generated by the earlier developed NN single station models (SSMs) at Sutherland (32.38°S, 20.81°E) and Springbok (29.67°S, 17.88°E), to predict TEC variations over the Cape Town (33.95°S, 18.47°E) and Upington (28.41°S, 21.26°E) stations, respectively, during equinoxes and solstices. This revealed that, on average, the NM led to an improvement in TEC prediction accuracy compared to the SSMs for the considered testing periods.     

Modeling medium-scale TEC structures,observed by Belgian GPS receivers network

GALOCAD project “Development of a Galileo Local Component for the nowcasting and forecasting of atmospheric disturbances affecting the integrity of high precision Galileo applications” aims to perform a detailed study on ionospheric small- and medium-scale structures and to assess the influence of these structures on the reliability of Galileo precise positioning applications. GPS-derived TEC (total electron content) is obtained from the Belgium Dense Network (BDN), consisting of 67 permanent GPS stations. An empirical 3-D model is developed for studying these ionospheric structures. The model, named LLT model, described temporal variations of TEC in latitude/longitude frame (46°, 52°)N and (−1°, 11°)E. The spatial variations of TEC are modeled by Tchebishev base functions, while the temporal variations are described by a trigonometric basis. To fit the model to the data, the observed area is divided into bins with (1° × 1°) geographic scale and 6 min on time axis. LLT model is made flexible, with varying number of coefficients along each axis. This allows different degree of smoothing, which is the key element of the present approach. Model runs with higher number of coefficients, capturing in details medium-scale TEC structures are subtracted from results obtained with smaller number of coefficients; the latter represent the background ionosphere. The residual structures are localized and followed as they travel across the observed area. In this way, the size, velocity, and direction of the irregular structures are obtained.     

On the variabilities of the Total Electron Content (TEC) over the Indian low latitude sector

The Total Electron Content (TEC) from four locations in the Indian sector namely, Trivandrum (8.47°N, 76.91°E, Geomag.0.63°S, 0.3° dip), Waltair (17.7° N, 83.3°E, Geomag. 6.4°N, 20° dip), Bhopal (23.28°N, 77.34°E, Geomag.14.26°N, 33.2° dip), and Delhi (28.58°N, 77.21°E, Geomag.19.2°N, 43.4° dip) during a low sunspot year of 2004 are used to study the variabilities of the TEC. The day time TEC values are higher over Waltair and Bhopal compared to those at Trivandrum and Delhi. Considerable day-to-day variations in the diurnal values of TEC are observed at the anomaly crest locations. The observed GPS-TEC has been compared with the IRI-2007 model derived TEC considering three different options (IRI-2001, IRI-2001 corrected and Ne-Quick) available in the model for the topside electron density. The TEC derived with Ne-Quick and IRI-01 corrected options show better agreement with GPS-TEC while the TEC from IRI-01 method shows larger deviations. From the correlation analysis carried out between TEC value at 1300 h LT and solar indices parameters namely sunspot number (SSN), F10.7 and EUV, it is observed that the correlation is more during equinoctial months and less during summer months. The correlation coefficients observed over the anomaly locations, Bhopal and Delhi are lower compared to those at Trivandrum and Waltair.