Apparent rotation properties of space debris extracted from photometric measurements

Knowledge about the rotation properties of space debris objects is essential for the active debris removal missions, accurate re-entry predictions and to investigate the long-term effects of the space environment on the attitude motion change. Different orbital regions and object’s physical properties lead to different attitude states and their change over time.Since 2007 the Astronomical Institute of the University of Bern (AIUB) performs photometric measurements of space debris objects. To June 2016 almost 2000 light curves of more than 400 individual objects have been acquired and processed. These objects are situated in all orbital regions, from low Earth orbit (LEO), via global navigation systems orbits and high eccentricity orbit (HEO), to geosynchronous Earth orbit (GEO). All types of objects were observed including the non-functional spacecraft, rocket bodies, fragmentation debris and uncorrelated objects discovered during dedicated surveys. For data acquisition, we used the 1-meter Zimmerwald Laser and Astrometry Telescope (ZIMLAT) at the Swiss Optical Ground Station and Geodynamics Observatory Zimmerwald, Switzerland. We applied our own method of phase-diagram reconstruction to extract the apparent rotation period from the light curve. Presented is the AIUB’s light curve database and the obtained rotation properties of space debris as a function of object type and orbit.     

Properties of the high area-to-mass ratio space debris population at high altitudes

In the framework of its space debris research activities ESA established an optical survey program to study the space debris environment at high altitudes, in particular in the geostationary ring and in the geostationary transfer orbit region. The Astronomical Institute of the University of Bern (AIUB) performs these surveys on behalf of ESA using ESA’s 1-m telescope in Tenerife. Regular observations were started in 1999 and are continued during about 120–140 nights per year. Results from these surveys revealed a substantial amount of space debris at high altitudes in the size range from 0.1 to 1 m. Several space debris populations with different dynamical properties were identified in the geostationary ring. During the searches for debris in the geostationary transfer orbit region a new population of objects in unexpected orbits, where no potential progenitors exist, was found. The orbital periods of these objects are clustered around one revolution per day; the eccentricities, however, are scattered between 0 and 0.6. By following-up some of these objects using the ESA telescope and AIUB’s 1-m telescope in Zimmerwald, Switzerland, it was possible to study the properties of this new population. One spectacular finding from monitoring the orbits over time spans of days to months is the fact that these objects must have extreme area-to-mass ratios, which are by several orders of magnitudes higher than for ‘normal-type’ debris. This in turn supports the hypothesis that the new population actually is debris generated in or near the geostationary ring and which is in orbits with periodically varying eccentricity and inclination due to perturbations by solar radiation pressure. In order to further study the nature of these debris, multi-color and temporal photometry (light curves) were acquired with the Zimmerwald telescope. The light curves show strong variations over short time intervals, including signals typical for specular reflections. Some objects exhibit distinct periodic variations with periods ranging from 10 to several 100 s. All this is indicative for objects with complicated shapes and some highly reflective surfaces.     

Feasibility of performing space surveillance tasks with a proposed space-based optical architecture

Under ESA contract an industrial consortium including Aboa Space Research Oy (ASRO), the Astronomical Institute of the University of Bern (AIUB), and the Dutch National Aerospace Laboratory (NLR), proposed the observation concept, developed a suitable sensor architecture, and assessed the performance of a space-based optical (SBO) telescope in 2005. The goal of the SBO study was to analyse how the existing knowledge gap in the space debris population in the millimetre and centimetre regime may be closed by means of a passive optical instrument. The SBO instrument was requested to provide statistical information on the space debris population in terms of number of objects and size distribution. The SBO instrument was considered to be a cost-efficient with 20 cm aperture and 6° field-of-view and having flexible integration requirements. It should be possible to integrate the SBO instrument easily as a secondary payload on satellites launched into low-Earth orbits (LEO), or into geostationary orbit (GEO). Thus the selected mission concept only allowed for fix-mounted telescopes, and the pointing direction could be requested freely. Since 2007 ESA focuses space surveillance and tracking activities in the Space Situational Awareness (SSA) preparatory program. Ground-based radars and optical telescopes are studied for the build-up and maintenance of a catalogue of objects. In this paper we analyse how the proposed SBO architecture could contribute to the space surveillance tasks survey and tracking. We assume that the SBO instrumentation is placed into a circular sun-synchronous orbit at 800 km altitude. We discuss the observation conditions of objects at higher altitude, and select an orbit close to the terminator plane. A pointing of the sensor orthogonal to the orbital plane with optimal elevation slightly in positive direction (0° and +5°) is found optimal for accessing the entire GEO regime within one day, implying a very good coverage of controlled objects in GEO, too. Simulations using ESA’s Program for Radar and Optical Observation Forecasting (PROOF) in the version 2005 and a GEO reference population extracted from DISCOS revealed that the proposed pointing scenario provides low phase angles together with low angular velocities of the objects crossing the field-of-view. Radiometric simulations show that the optimal exposure time is 1–2 s, and that spherical objects in GEO with a diameter of below 1 m can be detected. The GEO population can be covered under proper illumination nearly completely, but seasonal drops of the coverage are possible. Subsequent observations of objects are on average at least every 1.5 days, not exceeding 3 days at maximum. A single observation arc spans 3° to 5° on average. Using a simulation environment that connects PROOF to AIUB’s program system CelMech we verify the consistency of the initial orbit determination for five selected test objects on subsequent days as a function of realistic astrometric noise levels. The initial orbit determination is possible. We define requirements for a correlator process essential for catalogue build-up and maintenance. Each single observation should provide an astrometric accuracy of at least 1”–1.5” so that the initially determined orbits are consistent within a few hundred kilometres for the semi-major axis, 0.01 for the eccentricity, and 0.1° for the inclination.     

MCMC-Particle-based group tracking of space objects within Bayesian framework

With the intense increase in space objects, especially space debris, it is necessary to efficiently track and catalog the extensive dense clusters of space objects. As the main instrument for low earth orbit (LEO) space surveillance, ground-based radar system is usually limited by its resolution while tracking small space debris with high density. Thus, the obtained measurement information could have been seriously missed, which makes the traditional tracking method inefficient. To address this issue, we conceived the concept of group tracking. For group tracking, the overall tendency of the group objects is expected to be revealed, and the trajectories of individual objects are simultaneously reconstructed explicitly. According to model the interaction between the group center and individual trajectories using the Markov random field (MRF) within Bayesian framework, the objects’ number and individual trajectory can be estimated more accurately in the condition of high miss alarm probability. The Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)-Particle algorithm was utilized for solving the Bayesian integral problem. Furthermore, we introduced the mechanism for describing the behaviors of groups merging and splitting, which can expand the single group tracking algorithm to track variable multiple groups. Finally, simulation of the group tracking of space objects was carried out to validate the efficiency of the proposed method.     

Improved orbit predictions using two-line elements

The density of orbital space debris constitutes an increasing environmental challenge. There are two ways to alleviate the problem: debris mitigation and debris removal. This paper addresses collision avoidance, a key aspect of debris mitigation. We describe a method that contributes to achieving a requisite increase in orbit prediction accuracy for objects in the publicly available two-line element (TLE) catalog. Batch least-squares differential correction is applied to the TLEs. Using a high-precision numerical propagator, we fit an orbit to state vectors derived from successive TLEs. We then propagate the fitted orbit further forward in time. These predictions are validated against precision ephemeris data derived from the international laser ranging service (ILRS) for several satellites, including objects in the congested sun-synchronous orbital region. The method leads to a predicted range error that increases at a typical rate of 100 m per day, approximately a 10-fold improvement over individual TLE’s propagated with their associated analytic propagator (SGP4). Corresponding improvements for debris trajectories could potentially provide conjunction analysis sufficiently accurate for an operationally viable collision avoidance system based on TLEs only.     

Analysis of laser ranges and angular measurements data fusion for space debris orbit determination

In the framework of space debris, the orbit determination process is a fundamental step, both, for researchers and for satellite operators. The accurate knowledge of the orbit of space debris objects is needed to allow space debris characterization studies and to avoid unnecessary collision avoidance maneuvers.The accuracy of the results of an orbit determination process depends on several factors as the number, the accuracy, the kind of processed measurements, their distribution along the orbit, and the object-observer relative geometry. When the observation coverage of the target orbit is not homogeneous, the accuracy of the orbit determination can be improved processing different kind of observables. Recent studies showed that the satellite laser ranging technique can be successfully applied to space debris.In this paper, we will investigate the benefits of using laser ranges and angular measurements for the orbit determination process. We will analyze the influence of the number of used observations, of the covered arc of orbit, of each observable, and of the observation geometry on the estimated parameters. Finally, using data acquired on short observation arcs, we analyze the achievable accuracies for the orbital regimes with the highest space debris density, and to the consequences of the data fusion on catalog maintenance operations. The results shown are obtained using only real data (both angular and laser measurements) provided by sensors of the Swiss Optical Ground Station and Geodynamics Observatory Zimmerwald owned by the Astronomical Institute of the University of Bern (AIUB) and for some studies also using ranges provided from other stations of the International Laser Ranging Service (ILRS).     

A Partially Orthogonal EnKF approach to atmospheric density estimation using orbital debris

A key requirement for accurate trajectory prediction and space situational awareness is knowledge of how non-conservative forces affect space object motion. These forces vary temporally and spatially, and are driven by the underlying behavior of space weather particularly in Low Earth Orbit (LEO). Existing trajectory prediction algorithms adjust space weather models based on calibration satellite observations. However, lack of sufficient data and mismodeling of non-conservative forces cause inaccuracies in space object motion prediction, especially for uncontrolled debris objects. The uncontrolled nature of debris objects makes them particularly sensitive to the variations in space weather. Our research takes advantage of this behavior by utilizing observations of debris objects to infer the space environment parameters influencing their motion.The hypothesis of this research is that it is possible to utilize debris objects as passive, indirect sensors of the space environment. We focus on estimating atmospheric density and its spatial variability to allow for more precise prediction of LEO object motion. The estimated density is parameterized as a grid of values, distributed by latitude and local sidereal time over a spherical shell encompassing Earth at a fixed altitude of 400 km. The position and velocity of each debris object are also estimated. A Partially Orthogonal Ensemble Kalman Filter (POEnKF) is used for assimilation of space object measurements to estimate density.For performance comparison, the scenario characteristics (number of objects, measurement cadence, etc.) are based on a sensor tasking campaign executed for the High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model project. The POEnKF analysis details spatial comparisons between the true and estimated density fields, and quantifies the improved accuracy in debris object motion predictions due to more accurate drag force models from density estimates. It is shown that there is an advantage to utilizing multiple debris objects instead of just one object. Although the work presented here explores the POEnKF performance when using information from only 16 debris objects, the research vision is to utilize information from all routinely observed debris objects. Overall, the filter demonstrates the ability to estimate density to within a threshold of accuracy dependent on measurement/sensor error. In the case of a geomagnetic storm, the filter is able to track the storm and provide more accurate density estimates than would be achieved using a simple exponential atmospheric density model or MSIS Atmospheric Model (when calm conditions are assumed).     

雷达波束驻留模式下空间碎片数量的置信区间估计

碎片数量估计是空间碎片环境统计特征描述的重要内容之一,对于空间碎片环境模型验证、航天器碰撞风险分析以及碎片数量增长趋势预测有重要意义.针对波束指向正东、正南任意仰角的雷达波束驻留(Beam-park)模式(天顶指向是波束指向仰角为90°时的特例),给出了一种估计碎片数量置信区间的方法.对于给定轨道高度范围内一个具有穿越雷达波束可能性(即雷达散射截面足够大,且轨道倾角相对测站纬度足够大)的碎片,将其是否真正穿越波束这一随机事件用(0-1)分布来建模,根据所采集的轨道高度和倾角数据,计算出该轨道高度范围内碎片穿越波束的平均概率,进而采用中心极限定理来估计碎片数量的置信区间.仿真结果表明了方法的有效性.      

Bayesian linking of geosynchronous orbital debris tracks as seen by the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope

We describe a Bayesian sampling model for linking and constraining orbit models from angular observations of “streaks” in optical telescope images. Our algorithm is particularly suited to situations where the observation times are small fractions of the orbital periods of the observed objects or when there is significant confusion of objects in the observation field. We use Markov Chain Monte Carlo to sample from the joint posterior distribution of the parameters of multiple orbit models (up to the number of observed tracks) and parameters describing which tracks are linked with which orbit models. Using this algorithm, we forecast the constraints on geosynchronous (GEO) debris orbits achievable with the planned Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST). Because of the short 15 s exposure times, preliminary orbit determinations of GEO objects from LSST will have large and degenerate errors on the orbital elements. Combined with the expected crowded fields of GEO debris it will be challenging to reliably link orbital tracks in LSST observations given the currently planned observing cadence.     

Removing orbital debris with lasers

Orbital debris in low Earth orbit (LEO) are now sufficiently dense that the use of LEO space is threatened by runaway collision cascading. A problem predicted more than thirty years ago, the threat from debris larger than about 1 cm demands serious attention. A promising proposed solution uses a high power pulsed laser system on the Earth to make plasma jets on the objects, slowing them slightly, and causing them to re-enter and burn up in the atmosphere. In this paper, we reassess this approach in light of recent advances in low-cost, light-weight modular design for large mirrors, calculations of laser-induced orbit changes and in design of repetitive, multi-kilojoules lasers, that build on inertial fusion research. These advances now suggest that laser orbital debris removal (LODR) is the most cost-effective way to mitigate the debris problem. No other solutions have been proposed that address the whole problem of large and small debris. A LODR system will have multiple uses beyond debris removal. International cooperation will be essential for building and operating such a system.     

Characterizing space debris longitude-dependent distribution based on RAAN perturbation rate

The space debris environment is one of the major threats against payloads. Space debris orbital distribution is of great importance for space debris environment modeling. Due to perturbation factors, the Right Ascension of Ascending Node (RAAN) of space objects changes consistently, causing regular rotation of the orbit plane around Earth’s axis. Based on the investigation of the RAAN perturbation rate of concerned objects, this paper proposes a RAAN discretization method in order to present the space debris longitude-dependent distribution. Combined with two line element (TLE) data provided by the US Space Surveillance Network, the estimated value from RAAN discretization method is compared with the real case. The results suggest that using only the initial orbital data at the beginning of the time interval of interest, the RAAN discretization method is able to provide reliable longitude distribution of concerned targets in the next following period. Furthermore, spacecraft cumulative flux against space debris is calculated in this paper. The results suggest that the relevance between spacecraft RAAN setup and flux output is much smaller for LEO targets than MEO targets, which corresponds with the theory analysis. Since the nonspherical perturbation is the major factor for RAAN variation, the RAAN perturbation rate has little connection with the size of orbital objects. In other words, the RAAN discretization method introduced in this paper also applies to space debris of different size range, proposing a possible suggestion for the improvement of space debris environment engineering models.     

An adaptive threshold method for improving astrometry of space debris CCD images

Optical survey is a main technique for observing space debris, and precisely measuring the positions of space debris is of great importance. Due to several factors, e.g. the angle object normal to the observer, the shape as well as the attitude of the object, the variations of observed characteristics for low earth orbital space debris are distinct. When we look at optical CCD images of observed objects, the size and brightness are varying, hence it’s difficult to decide the threshold during centroid measurement and precise astrometry. Traditionally the threshold is given empirically and constantly in data reduction, and obviously it’s not suitable for data reduction of space debris. Here we offer a solution to provide the threshold. Our method assumes that the PSF (point spread function) is Gaussian and estimates the signal flux by a directly two-dimensional Gaussian fit, then a cubic spline interpolation is performed to divide each initial pixel into several sub-pixels, at last the threshold is determined by the estimation of signal flux and the sub-pixels above threshold are separated to estimate the centroid. A trail observation of the fast spinning satellite Ajisai is made and the CCD frames are obtained to test our algorithm. The calibration precision of various threshold is obtained through the comparison between the observed equatorial position and the reference one, the latter are obtained from the precise ephemeris of the satellite. The results indicate that our method reduces the total errors of measurements, it works effectively in improving the centering precision of space debris images.     

The bistatic radar capabilities of the Medicina radiotelescopes in space debris detection and tracking

An accurate measurement of the position and trajectory of the space debris fragments is of primary importance for the characterization of the orbital debris environment. The Medicina Radioastronomical Station is a radio observation facility that is here proposed as receiving part of a ground-based space surveillance system for detecting and tracking space debris at different orbital regions (from Low Earth Orbits up to Geostationary Earth Orbits). The proposed system consists of two bistatic radars formed by the existing Medicina receiving antennas coupled with appropriate transmitters. This paper focuses on the current features and future technical development of the receiving part of the observational setup. Outlines of possible transmitting systems will also be given together with the evaluation of the observation strategies achievable with the proposed facilities.     

Space Debris Mitigation in France,Germany, Italy and United Kingdom

The Space systems today provide growing benefits to enhance the quality of humankind. However, as a by-product, the orbiting objects inevitably leaves some debris which after 50 years of space activities represent a concern for all space agencies and manufacturers and operators. Since last year no international agreement was in place to mitigate the growing population of space debris objects. The successful result obtained at UN-COPUOS in 2007 and available in the OOSA web site, now gives to the public, a set of voluntary international guidelines that could, if adopted by each space fairing Country, help in maintaining the present space environment. More further steps are necessary in the future to define a legal and normative framework. The paper will present the seven established UN Space Debris guidelines as well as examples of the minimum steps to be carried out at national level to enable the UN-COPUOS to start the discussion of the legal aspect associated with the space debris issue.     

规避时段选择与机动变轨研究

按照空间碎片减缓指南的要求, 当两个空间物体发生碰撞前需要进行规避操作. 本文对规避中涉及到的速度增量与轨道变化的关系进行了分析, 探讨了一些具体的机动变轨方法, 同时还就测站的观测时段问题作了研究, 为碎片预警和航天器的规避提供了有力的支持.      

A robotic telescope network for space debris identification and tracking

The two TAROT (Télescopes à Action Rapide pour les Objets Transitoires; Rapid Action Telescopes for Transient Objects) installations are fully robotic optical observatories with optimized observation scheduling, data processing and archiving. Zadko is a 1 m telescope in Western Australia. The fully robotisation of the Zadko telescope has just been completed; it is now included in the TAROT network. In this paper we provide an overview of this international network of robotic optical telescopes. We discuss the advantages of using the network to participate in a satellite and space debris tracking program. This network will access almost all geostationary belt objects, and provide the first real-time satellite positioning capability. The inclusion of the 1 m Zadko telescope into the network significantly extends the efficiency and sensitivity of the existing two telescope configuration.     

Laser measurements to space debris from Graz SLR station

In order to test laser ranging possibilities to space debris objects, the Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) Station Graz installed a frequency doubled Nd:YAG pulse laser with a 1 kHz repetition rate, a pulse width of 10 ns, and a pulse energy of 25 mJ at 532 nm (on loan from German Aerospace Center Stuttgart – DLR). We developed and built low-noise single-photon detection units to enable laser ranging to targets with inaccurate orbit predictions, and adapted our standard SLR software to include a few hundred space debris targets. With this configuration, we successfully tracked – within 13 early-evening sessions of each about 1.5 h – 85 passes of 43 different space debris targets, in distances between 600 km and up to more than 2500 km, with radar cross sections from >15 m² down to <0.3 m², and measured their distances with an average precision of about 0.7 m RMS.     

空间碎片环境近况

根据国际上近年来对空间碎片跟踪、观测、统计分析以及对从轨道上回收的试验装置和样品的分析研究,介绍了地球周围空间环境中存在的空间碎片的数量、质量及其分布的最新状况。     

Debris swarms seen by SMEI

The large 3° × 60° fields-of-view of the Solar Mass Ejection Imager (SMEI) instruments are oriented on the stabilized Coriolis satellite to image most of the sky each Sun-synchronous orbit. Besides observing coronal mass ejections, the SMEI mission objective, SMEI also has detected a plethora of Earth-orbiting satellites (resident space objects or RSOs) brighter than ∼8th magnitude at a rate of about 1 per minute. Occasionally, SMEI sees an RSO swarm: a sudden onset of a large number of RSOs, many more than the nominal rate, upto dozens detected in a 4-s frame. These swarms usually last for a few minutes. A sample of six such RSO ensembles is analyzed in this paper in which the distance and the direction of the velocity vector for individual objects are estimated. We present the observational evidence indicating that the swarms must be near-field objects traveling in orbits near that of Coriolis, and that the relatively speeds between the objects and Coriolis are low. Further, analyses indicate that the RSOs are quite close (<20 m) and are generally moving radially away from the satellite. The predicted encounter geometries for Coriolis passing through or near a small debris cloud is, generally, quite inconsistent with the observations. The most likely explanation consistent with the observations is that SMEI is seeing debris being ejected from the Coriolis spacecraft itself. An analysis of distance and brightness for a subset of the RSOs indicates that the median diameter of the debris particles is ∼80 μm.     

天基微小空间碎片探测研究

随着空间碎片数量的不断增多,天基微小空间碎片探测已经成为一个热点．首先介绍了空间碎片在低地球轨道上的分布情况以及它对于航天器的危害,然后介绍了国外微小碎片探测器的基本情况,并在这些探测结果的基础上提出了一个探测器方案．这种探测器的传感器采用了新型的压电材料聚偏二氟乙稀(PVDF),使用了飞行时间法(TOF)准确测定空间碎片的飞行速度,以及快脉冲分析系统分析碎片的质量．