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以层次分析理论为基础,采用二次分布和灰色理论综合评估方法,建立了航空发动机可靠性指标评估模型。将发动机可靠性指标分为总体级、危害度级、故障模式三个层次,故障模式级的数据融合采用二次分布和加权平均的方法,危害度级的数据融合采用层次分析-灰色理论综合评估方法,将航空发动机可靠性指标分散描述成属于不同灰类的向量,将评估灰类向量进行单值化处理得到发动机总体可靠性指标,实现了发动机可靠性指标从故障模式级到危害度级再到总体指标的逐步融合。对某型涡扇发动机应用表明,基于层次分析-灰色理论的评估模型应用范围广泛,对数据的分布类型不予限制,评估结构清晰,分层次反映了发动机的可靠性状态。 相似文献
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针对实践中缺乏理论性、可实施性强的测试性指标论证方法的现状,提出了一种基于可靠度、战备完好率与可维修度(ROM)模型的测试性指标论证方法。从战备完好率(O)、可靠度(R)、可维修度(M)关系式入手,将关系式中的可靠度和可维修度分别用平均故障间隔时间(MTBF)和平均修复时间(MTTR)替换,再建立MTBF和MTTR与故障诊断率、虚警率和机内测试(BIT)故障率的关系式并代入"ROM"关系式,得到战备完好率与测试性指标之间的关系式,建立待解指标与BIT数量之间的关系式,通过代入和消减参数得到战备完好率随BIT数量变化曲线,通过找到曲线极值点得到最佳BIT数量,进而得到最佳的测试性指标。在模型构建和指标求解过程中进行了较为充分的仿真分析,得到了大量与经验相符的规律性结论,为不同对象应用该方法进行参数设置时提供了较为充分的参考。最后应用本文方法对某光电一体化设备进行了指标论证,演示并验证了本文方法的有效性。 相似文献
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为了评价小型航空发动机在研制过程中的可靠性水平,基于其结构和使用特点,建立了可靠性参数体系和指标评定方法;选择平均故障间隔时间(MTBF)、起动可靠度(RSS)、平均致命故障间隔时间(MTBCF)作为发动机的可靠性参数,采用Bayes数据融合方法建立MTBF评定模型、采用故障树分析方法建立RSS评定模型、采用关键件的寿命分布建立MTBCF评定模型;与传统取平均值计算方法相比较,提出的方法将发动机的故障数据分类统计、分层次评估,能够全面反映出系统的可靠性状态,并有利于发现系统中存在的薄弱环节,通过应用实例说明了该方法的有效性. 相似文献
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研究HFC网络可靠性问题,提出了HFC网络的服务故障度量单位和故障权值两个新概念,并讨论可靠性的检验问题。针对某有线电视HFC网络验证建立统计学的数学模型,使用合适抽样样本对HFC网络的可靠性进行计算,得出不同可靠度下的具体指标,对HFC网络性能进行量化评价。 相似文献
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《航空学报》2017,(12)
论文采用分-立的思想构建了一种复杂可修系统的可用度计算方法 ,即采用先分解后综合的方法来构建系统的可用度模型。分解主要是指分析系统包含的子系统和部件之间的故障行为特性,包括部件故障时间分布函数、故障传播路径、系统结构等内容,采用通用发生函数(UGF)建立了多部件系统的0-1状态可靠性评估模型,并对系统的可靠度进行分析,在此基础上将系统看作一个整体,通过更新过程理论建立故障时间和维修时间服从一般分布的系统可用度方程,给出并证明了系统可用度求解的一般方法。通过算例分析表明,论文设计方法严谨、科学,具有较强的可用性和通用性,在可靠性工程领域有很强的推广价值。 相似文献
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模糊可靠性理论中的基本概念 总被引:12,自引:0,他引:12
经典可靠性理论以概率假设和二态假设为基础,在许多情况下是不可接受的,需要以可能性假设和模糊状态假设分別替代。模糊可靠性理论或者基于概率假设和模糊状态假设,或者基于可能性假设和二态假设,或者基于可能性假设和模糊状态假设,从而有3种不同的形式:率模(Profust)可靠性理论、能双(Posbist)可靠性理论和能模(Posfust)可靠性理论。本文概述了率模可靠性理论和能双可靠性理论中的基本概念,并介绍一个简单实用的模糊软件可靠性模型,最后展望模糊可靠性研究的未来趋势。 相似文献
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For efficiently estimating the Profust failure probability based on probability input variables and fuzzy-state assumption, a General Performance Function(GPF) expression is established under the strict mathematical derivation for the Profust reliability model. By constructing the GPF,the calculation of the Profust failure probability can be transformed into the calculation of the traditional failure probability. Then various existing methods for the traditional failure probability can be used to estimate the Profust failure probability. Due to the high efficiency of the Adaptive Kriging(AK) model and the universality of the Monte Carlo Simulation(MCS), AK inserted MCS(abbreviated as AK-MCS) has been proven to be an efficient method for estimating the failure probability. Therefore, the AK-MCS combined with the GPF(abbreviated as AK-MCS + GPF)is proposed for estimating Profust failure probability. The proposed method greatly reduces the computational cost while ensuring the accuracy. Finally, four examples are given to validate the proposed AK-MCS + GPF. The results of the examples show the rationality and the efficiency of the proposed AK-MCS + GPF. 相似文献
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Song Jun Lu Zhenzhou* School of Aeronautics Northwestern Polytechnical University Xi’an China 《中国航空学报》2008,21(6):518-525
For a degradable structural system with fuzzy failure region, a moment method based on fuzzy reliability sensitivity algorithm is presented. According to the value assignment of performance function, the integral region for calculating the fuzzy failure probability is first split into a series of subregions in which the membership function values of the performance function within the fuzzy failure region can be approximated by a set of constants. The fuzzy failure probability is then transformed into a sum of products of the random failure probabilities and the approximate constants of the membership function in the subregions. Furthermore, the fuzzy reliability sensitivity analysis is transformed into a series of random reliability sensitivity analysis, and the random reliability sensitivity can be obtained by the constructed moment method. The primary advantages of the presented method include higher efficiency for implicit performance function with low and medium dimensionality and wide applicability to multiple failure modes and nonnormal basic random variables. The limitation is that the required computation effort grows exponentially with the increase of dimensionality of the basic random vari- able; hence, it is not suitable for high dimensionality problem. Compared with the available methods, the presented one is pretty competitive in the case that the dimensionality is lower than 10. The presented examples are used to verify the advantages and indicate the limitations. 相似文献
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The classical probabilistic reliability theory and fuzzy reliability theory cannot directly measure the uncertainty of structural reliability with uncertain variables,i.e.,subjective random and fuzzy variables.In order to simultaneously satisfy the duality of randomness and subadditivity of fuzziness in the reliability problem,a new quantification method for the reliability of structures is presented based on uncertainty theory,and an uncertainty-theory-based perspective of classical Cornell reliability index is explored.In this paper,by introducing the uncertainty theory,we adopt the uncertain measure to quantify the reliability of structures for the subjective probability or fuzzy variables,instead of probabilistic and possibilistic measures.We utilize uncertain variables to uniformly represent the subjective random and fuzzy parameters,based on which we derive solutions to analyze the uncertainty reliability of structures with uncertainty distributions.Moreover,we propose the Cornell uncertainty reliability index based on the uncertain expected value and variance.Experimental results on three numerical applications demonstrate the validity of the proposed method. 相似文献
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基于贝叶斯网络的分层系统可靠性分析 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
由于分层系统的系统结构复杂,且系统不同层次可靠性信息具有不均衡性的特点,使得分层系统的可靠性建模较为困难.考虑二态情况,通过引入贝叶斯网络描述分层系统元素间的失效关系,并考虑了系统元素间级联失效问题,结合贝叶斯多源信息融合方法,以贝叶斯网络模型为基础整合了系统各层元素的可靠性信息,构成了一种较为通用的二态分层系统可靠性分析方法.算例结果表明:该方法在贝叶斯网络模型计算过程中能够融合系统各层元素可靠性信息并有效处理级联失效问题,提高了系统可靠性后验均值估计的准确性,减小了系统可靠性结论的后验方差. 相似文献
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在航空航天系统中,已有许多可靠性参数来描述产品的可靠性特性,但大多数都是基于连续时间上的 连续型可靠性参数,而在离散时间上有定义的离散型可靠性参数的描述较少,例如离散失效率。为弥补可靠性 理论在在这方面的缺陷,从离散时间这一角度出发,研究离散型可靠性参数的数学关系。推导离散失效概率与 离散失效率的数学转换公式,利用离散失效率推导计算离散可靠度的数学公式,推导平均失效前工作次数与离 散失效概率的数学转换公式,并进行验证。结果表明:推导出的三个数学转换公式合理,可以用于描述离散型 可靠性参数。 相似文献
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Dynamic fault tree analysis is widely used for the reliability analysis of the complex system with dynamic failure characteristics. In many circumstances, the exact value of system reliability is difficult to obtain due to absent or insufficient data for failure probabilities or failure rates of components. The traditional fuzzy operation arithmetic based on extension principle or interval theory may lead to fuzzy accumulations. Moreover, the existing fuzzy dynamic fault tree analysis methods are restricted to the case that all system components follow exponential time-to-failure distributions. To overcome these problems, a new fuzzy dynamic fault tree analysis approach based on the weakest n-dimensional t-norm arithmetic and developed sequential binary decision diagrams method is proposed to evaluate system fuzzy reliability. Compared with the existing approach, the proposed method can effectively reduce fuzzy cumulative and be applicable to any time-to-failure distribution type for system components. Finally, a case study is presented to illustrate the application and advantages of the proposed approach. 相似文献