Large geomagnetic storms of extreme solar event periods in solar cycle 23

During extreme solar events such as big flares or/and energetic coronal mass ejections (CMEs) high energy particles are accelerated by the shocks formed in front of fast interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). The ICMEs (and their sheaths) also give rise to large geomagnetic storms which have significant effects on the Earth’s environment and human life. Around 14 solar cosmic ray ground level enhancement (GLE) events in solar cycle 23 we examined the cosmic ray variation, solar wind speed, ions density, interplanetary magnetic field, and geomagnetic disturbance storm time index (D_st). We found that all but one of GLEs are always followed by a geomagnetic storm with D_st  −50 nT within 1–5 days later. Most(10/14) geomagnetic storms have D_st index  −100  nT therefore generally belong to strong geomagnetic storms. This suggests that GLE event prediction of geomagnetic storms is 93% for moderate storms and 71% for large storms when geomagnetic storms preceded by GLEs. All D_st depressions are associated with cosmic ray decreases which occur nearly simultaneously with geomagnetic storms. We also investigated the interplanetary plasma features. Most geomagnetic storm correspond significant periods of southward B_z and in close to 80% of the cases that the B_z was first northward then turning southward after storm sudden commencement (SSC). Plasma flow speed, ion number density and interplanetary plasma temperature near 1 AU also have a peak at interplanetary shock arrival. Solar cause and energetic particle signatures of large geomagnetic storms and a possible prediction scheme are discussed.     

Energetic particle signatures of geoeffective coronal mass ejections

We have studied statistically associations of moderate and intense geomagnetic storms with coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and energetic particle events. The goal was to identify specific energetic particle signatures, which could be used to improve the predictions of the geoeffectiveness of full and partial halo CMEs. Protons in the range 1–110 MeV from the ERNE experiment onboard SOHO are used in the analysis. The study covers the time period from August 1996 to July 2000. We demonstrate the feasibility of energetic particle observations as an additional source of information in evaluating the geoeffectiveness of full and partial halo CMEs. Based on the observed onset times of solar energetic particle (SEP) events and energetic storm particle (ESP) events, we derive a proxy for the transit times of shocks driven by the interplanetary counterparts of coronal mass ejections from the Sun to the Earth. For a limited number of geomagnetic storms which can be associated to both SEP and ESP signatures, we found that this transit time correlates with the strength of geomagnetic storms.     

Dayside ionospheric uplift during strong geomagnetic storms as detected by the CHAMP,SAC-C,TOPEX and Jason-1 satellites

Ionosphere response to severe geomagnetic storms that occurred in 2001–2003 was analyzed using data of global ionosphere maps (GIM), altimeter data from the Jason-1 and TOPEX satellites, and data of GPS receivers on-board CHAMP and SAC-C satellites. This allowed us to study in detail ionosphere redistribution due to geomagnetic storms, dayside ionospheric uplift and overall dayside TEC increase. It is shown that after the interplanetary magnetic field turns southward and intensifies, the crests of the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) travel poleward and the TEC value within the EIA area increases significantly (up to ∼50%). GPS data from the SAC-C satellite show that during the main phase of geomagnetic storms TEC values above the altitude of 715 km are 2–3 times higher than during undisturbed conditions. These effects of dayside ionospheric uplift occur owing to the “super-fountain effect” and last few hours while the enhanced interplanetary electric field impinged on the magnetopause.     

Nightside 135.6 nm emission enhancements of mid/low latitudes during geomagnetic storms as observed by the ionosphere PhotoMeter (IPM) on the Chinese meteorological satellite FY-3D

IPM has detected nightside 135.6 nm emission enhancements over a wide latitude range, from the sub-auroral latitudes to the equatorial regions during geomagnetic storms. Our work, presented in this paper, uses the data of IPM to understand these 135.6 nm emission enhancements during of geomagnetic storms and studies the variations of total electron content (TEC) and the F₂ layer peak electron density (NmF2) in the region of enhanced emissions. Middle and low latitude emission enhancements are presented during several medium storms in 2018. The variations of both the integrated electron content (IEC) derived from the nighttime OI 135.6 nm emission by IPM and TEC from the International GNSS Service (IGS) relative to the daily mean of magnetically quiet days of per each latitude bin (30°≦geographic latitude < 40°, 15°≦geographic latitude < 30°, 0°≦geographic latitude < 15°, ?15°≦geographic latitude < 0°, ?30°≦geographic latitude < -15°, ?40°≦geographic latitude < -30°) are investigated and show that on magnetically storm day, IEC by IPM always increases, while TEC from IGC may increase or decrease. Even if both increase, the increase of IEC is greater than that of TEC. From the comparison of IEC and TEC during magnetic storms, it can be seen that the enhancement of the nighttime 135.6 nm emissions is not entirely due to the ionospheric change. The time of IEC enhancements at each latitude bin is in good agreement, which mainly corresponds to the main phase time of the geomagnetic storm event and lasts until the recovery phase. The available ground-based ionosonde stations provide the values of NmF2 which match the 135.6 nm emissions measured by IPM in space and time. The variations of NmF2 squared can characterize the variations of the OI 135.6 nm emissions caused by O⁺ ions and electrons radiative recombination. The study results show that the OI 135.6 nm emission enhancements caused by O⁺ ions and electrons radiative recombination (where NmF2 squared increases) are obviously a contribution to the measured 135.6 nm emission enhancements by IPM. The contribution accounts for at least one of all contributions to the measured 135.6 nm emission enhancements by IPM. However, where the NmF2 squared provided by ionosonde decrease or change little (where the OI 135.6 nm emissions cause by O⁺ ions and electrons radiative recombination also decrease or change little), the emission enhancements measured by IPM at storm-time appear to come from the contributions of other mechanisms, such as energetic neutral atoms precipitation, or the mutual neutralization emission (O+ + O-→2O + h? (135.6 nm)) which also occupies a certain proportion in 135.6 nm airglow emission at night.     

Geomagnetic effects on mid-latitude railways: A statistical study of anomalies in the operation of signaling and train control equipment on the East-Siberian Railway

Intense geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) can hamper rail traffic by disturbing signaling and train control systems. GIC threats have been a concern for technological systems at high-latitude locations due to geomagnetic disturbances driven by substorm expansion electrojet or convection electrojet intensifications. However, other geomagnetic storm processes such as storm sudden commencement (SSC) and geomagnetic pulsations can also cause GIC concerns for technological systems. We present in this paper the first evidence based on statistical data for links between geomagnetic disturbances and faulty operations (anomalies) in the functioning of railway automatics and telemetry. We analyze anomalies of automatic signaling and train control equipment which occurred in 2004 on the East-Siberian Railway (corrected geomagnetic latitude _m = 46–51°N and longitude λ_m = 168–187°E). Our results reveal a seasonal effect in the number of anomalies per train similar to the one observed in geomagnetic activity (Kp, Ap, Dst indices). We also found an increase by a factor of 3 in the total duration of daily anomalies during intense geomagnetic storms (local geomagnetic index specific to Siberian Observatory A_max > 30), with a significant correlation between the daily sum of durations of anomalies with geomagnetic activity. Special attention was paid to failures not related to recognized technical malfunctions. We found that the probability of these failures occurring in geomagnetically disturbed periods was 5–7 times higher than the average anomaly occurrence.     

Synoptic observations of coronal transients and their interplanetary consequences

A small coronagraph has been placed in orbit to monitor the sun's outer corona from 2.5 to 10.0 solar radii, and five years of nearly continuous synoptic observations have now been completed. Rapid and sensitive image processing techniques have been developed to screen the data for transient phenomena, particularly coronal mass ejections (CMEs). About 50,000 coronal images have been examined, out of a five-year total of 68,000, and a standardized listing of more than 1,200 coronal transients for the period 1979–1982 has been prepared. These data have been analysed in the light of other available information, particularly on conditions in the interplanetary plasma. The dynamical characteristics of the active corona, as they are beginning to emerge from the data, are presented. We find that coronal mass ejections exercise significant influence on the interplanetary solar wind. They are the source of disturbances that are frequent and energetic, that tend to be somewhat focussed, that often reach shock intensity, and that propagate to large heliocentric distances, sometimes causing major geomagnetic storms.     

Comparing proton fluxes of central meridian SEP events with those predicted by SOLPENCO

We have developed an operational code, SOLPENCO, that can be used for space weather prediction schemes of solar energetic particle (SEP) events. SOLPENCO provides proton differential flux and cumulated fluence profiles from the onset of the event up to the arrival of the associated traveling interplanetary shock at the observer’s position (either 1.0 or 0.4 AU). SOLPENCO considers a variety of interplanetary scenarios where the SEP events develop. These scenarios include solar longitudes of the parent solar event ranging from E75 to W90, transit speeds of the associated shock ranging from 400 to 1700 km s⁻¹, proton energies ranging from 0.125 to 64 MeV, and interplanetary conditions for the energetic particle transport characterized by specific mean free paths. We compare the results of SOLPENCO with flux measurements of a set of SEP events observed at 1 AU that fulfill the following four conditions: (1) the association between the interplanetary shock observed at 1 AU and the parent solar event is well established; (2) the heliolongitude of the active region site is within 30° of the Sun–Earth line; (3) the event shows a significant proton flux increase at energies below 96 MeV; (4) the pre-event intensity background is low. The results are discussed in terms of the transit velocity of the shock and the proton energy. We draw conclusions about both the use of SOLPENCO as a prediction tool and the required improvements to make it useful for space weather purposes.     

The solar wind control of the equatorial ionosphere dynamics during geomagnetic storms

The interplanetary magnetic field, geomagnetic variations, virtual ionosphere height h′F, and the critical frequency foF2 data during the geomagnetic storms are studied to demonstrate relationships between these phenomena. We study 5-min ionospheric variations using the first Western Pacific Ionosphere Campaign (1998–1999) observations, 5-min interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and 5-min auroral electrojets data during a moderate geomagnetic storm. These data allowed us to demonstrate that the auroral and the equatorial ionospheric phenomena are developed practically simultaneously. Hourly average of the ionospheric foF2 and h′F variations at near equatorial stations during a similar storm show the same behavior. We suppose this is due to interaction between electric fields of the auroral and the equatorial ionosphere during geomagnetic storms. It is shown that the low-latitude ionosphere dynamics during these moderate storms was defined by the southward direction of the B_z-component of the interplanetary magnetic field. A southward IMF produces the Region I and Region II field-aligned currents (FAC) and polar electrojet current systems. We assume that the short-term ionospheric variations during geomagnetic storms can be explained mainly by the electric field of the FAC. The electric fields of the field-aligned currents can penetrate throughout the mid-latitude ionosphere to the equator and may serve as a coupling agent between the auroral and the equatorial ionosphere.     

Moderate geomagnetic storms of January 22–25, 2012 and their influences on the wave components in ionosphere and upper stratosphere-mesosphere regions

Moderate geomagnetic storms occurred during January 22–25, 2012 period. The geomagnetic storms are characterized by different indices and parameters. The SYM-H value on January 22 increased abruptly to 67 nT at sudden storm commencement (SSC), followed by a sharp decrease to −87 nT. A second SSC on January 24 followed by a shock on January 25 was also observed. These SSCs before the main storms and the short recovery periods imply the geomagnetic storms are CME  -driven. The sudden jump of solar wind dynamic pressure and IMF _Bz$B_z$ are also consistent with occurrence of CMEs. This is also reflected in the change in total electron content (TEC) during the storm relative to quiet days globally. The response of the ionospheric to geomagnetic storms can also be detected from wave components that account for the majority of TEC variance during the period. The dominant coherent modes of TEC variability are diurnal and semidiurnal signals which account upto 83% and 30% of the total TEC variance over fairly exclusive ionospheric regions respectively. Comparison of TEC anomalies attributed to diurnal (DW1) and semidiurnal (SW2) tides, as well as stationary planetary waves (SPW1) at 12 UTC shows enhancement in the positive anomalies following the storm. Moreover, the impact of the geomagnetic storms are distinctly marked in the daily time series of amplitudes of DW1, SW2 and SPW1. The abrupt changes in amplitudes of DW1 (5 TECU) and SW2 (2 TECU) are observed within 20°S–20°N latitude band and along 20°N respectively while that of SPW1 is about 3 TECU. Coherent oscillation with a period of 2.4 days between interplanetary magnetic field and TEC was detected during the storm. This oscillation is also detected in the amplitudes of DW1 over EIA regions in both hemispheres. Eventhough upward coupling of quasi two day wave (QTDWs) of the same periodicity, known to have caused such oscillation, are detected in both ionosphere and upper stratosphere, this one can likely be attributed to the geomagnetic storm as it happens after the storm commencement. Moreover, further analysis has indicated that QTDWs in the ionosphere are strengthened as a result of coherent oscillation of interplanetary magnetic field with the same frequency as QTDWs. On the otherhand, occurrences of minor SSW and geomagnetic storms in quick succession complicated clear demarcation of attribution of the respective events to variability of QTDWs amplitudes over upper stratosphere.     

Enhancement of solar wind low-energy energetic particles as precursor of geomagnetic disturbance in operational geomagnetic forecast

A study of the relationship between solar wind low-energy energetic particles using data from the Electron, Proton, and Alpha Monitor (EPAM) onboard the Advanced Compositional Explorer spacecraft (ACE) and geomagnetic activity using data from Canadian magnetic observatories in Canada’s polar cap, auroral zone, and subauroral zone was carried out for a period spanning 1997–2005. Full halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were used to gauge the initial particle enhancements and the subsequent geomagnetic activity. It was found that maximum geomagnetic activity is related to maximum particle enhancements in a non-linear fashion. Quadratic fit of the data results in expressions that can be easily used in an operational space weather setting to forecast geomagnetic disturbance quantitatively. A superposed epoch analysis shows increase in particle flux level starts hours before geomagnetic activity attains its peak, affirming the precursory nature of EPAM particles for the impending geomagnetic impact of CME. This can supplement the decision process in formulating geomagnetic warning after the launch of CME from the Sun but before the arrival of shock at Earth. The empirical relationships between solar wind low-energy energetic particles and geomagnetic activity revealed in this statistical study can be easily codified, and thus utilized in operational space weather forecast to appraise the geoeffectiveness of the CME and to provide a quantitative forecast for maximum geomagnetic activity in Canada’s polar cap, auroral zone, and subauroral zone after the occurrence of a CME.     

Effect of Forbush decreases of cosmic ray flux on ozone at higher middle latitudes

The Forbush decreases of cosmic ray flux occur prevailingly together with geomagnetic storms, because these phenomena have a similar origin in solar/interplanetary processes. To study the effects of large Forbush decreases on total ozone at middle latitudes, we use the TOMS total ozone data along latitudinal circles 40°N and 50°N. The effects of Forbush decreases are found to occur or to be non-measurable under the same conditions as those of geomagnetic storms: certain effect occurs only at 50°N (not 40°N), in winter, under conditions of high solar activity and the east phase of the QBO. However, the effects of the analyzed Forbush decreases are weaker than the effects of strong geomagnetic storms.     

Forecasting space weather: Predicting interplanetary shocks using neural networks

We are developing a system to predict the arrival of interplanetary (IP) shocks at the Earth. These events are routinely detected by the Electron, Proton, and Alpha Monitor (EPAM) instrument aboard NASA’s ACE spacecraft, which is positioned at Lagrange Point 1 (L1). In this work, we use historical EPAM data to train an IP shock forecasting algorithm. Our approach centers on the observation that these shocks are often preceded by identifiable signatures in the energetic particle intensity data. Using EPAM data, we trained an artificial neural network to predict the time remaining until the shock arrival. After training this algorithm on 37 events, it was able to forecast the arrival time for 19 previously unseen events. The average uncertainty in the prediction 24 h in advance was 8.9 h, while the uncertainty improved to 4.6 h when the event was 12 h away. This system is accessible online, where it provides predictions of shock arrival times using real-time EPAM data.     

The Earth’s magnetosphere response to interplanetary medium conditions on January 21–22, 2005 and on December 14–15, 2006

The Earth’s magnetosphere response to interplanetary medium conditions on January 21–22, 2005 and on December 14–15, 2006 has been studied. The analysis of solar wind parameters measured by ACE spacecraft, of geomagnetic indices variations, of geomagnetic field measured by GOES 11, 12 satellites, and of energetic particle fluxes measured by POES 15, 16, 17 satellites was performed together with magnetospheric modeling based in terms of A2000 paraboloid model. We found the similar dynamics of three particle populations (trapped, quasi-trapped, and precipitating) during storms of different intensities developed under different external conditions: the maximal values of particle fluxes and the latitudinal positions of the isotropic boundaries were approximately the same. The main sources caused RC build-up have been determined for both magnetic storms. Global magnetospheric convection controlled by IMF and substorm activity driven magnetic storm on December 14–15, 2006. Extreme solar wind pressure pulse was mainly responsible for RC particle injection and unusual January 21, 2005 magnetic storm development under northward IMF during the main phase.     

Statistical analysis of the occurrence rate of geomagnetic storms during solar cycles 20–24

This study examines the occurrences rate of geomagnetic storms during the solar cycles (SCs) 20–24. It also investigates the solar sources at SCs 23 and 24. The Disturbed storm time (Dst) and Sunspot Number (SSN) data were used in the study. The study establishes that the magnitude of the rate of occurrences of geomagnetic storms is higher (lower) at the descending phases (minimum phases) of solar cycle. It as well reveals that severe and extreme geomagnetic storms (Dst < -250 nT) seldom occur at low solar activity but at very high solar activity and are mostly associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs) when occurred. Storms caused by CME + CH-HSSW are more prominent during the descending phase than any other phase of the solar cycle. Solar minimum features more CH-HSSW- associated storms than any other phase. It was also revealed that all high intensity geomagnetic storms (strong, severe and extreme) are mostly associated with CMEs. However, CH-HSSW can occasionally generate strong storms during solar minimum. The results have proven that CMEs are the leading cause of geomagnetic storms at the ascending, maximum and the descending phases of the cycles 23 and 24 followed by CME + CH-HSSW. The results from this study indicate that the rate of occurrence of geomagnetic storms could be predicted in SC phases.     

地球同步轨道高能电子增强事件预报方法

分析了地球同步轨道高能电子通量增强事件的发生规律及其与太阳风和行星际磁场参数的关系，并在此基础上建立了基于人工神经网络的高能电子增强事件模式，经实测数据检验，预报模式可以对未来1天的高能电子通量进行预报，误差为8．2％，达到了较高水平．     

第23太阳活动周中等地磁暴行星际源的统计分析

统计了第23太阳活动周(1996--2006年)发生的183次中等强度地磁暴(-100 nT < Dst ≤ -50 nT)的行星际源,分析了中等磁暴的年分布状况以及引起中等磁暴的不同行星际结构在太阳活动周中的分布特征,同时,与强磁暴行星际源的分布状况做了对比分析,主要的统计分析结果如下. (1)共转相互作用区CIR与行星际日冕物质抛射ICME在中等磁暴中具有同等重要的作用,且在ICME中,具有磁云结构和非磁云结构的ICME在引起中等磁暴的能力方面也基本相同,但带有鞘层结构的ICME在引起中等磁暴中具有更重要的作用. (2)中等磁暴在极大年(2001年)和下降年(2003年)发生次数最多,与地磁活动的双峰年对应,在极小年(1996和2006年)发生次数最少,与地磁活动低年对应,在其他年份分布较平均. (3)中等磁暴在太阳活动极大年主要由ICME引起,在上升年和下降年CIR在其中起主要作用,且下降年基本是上升年的两倍,而对于强磁暴而言,ICME始终是最重要的行星际源.      

Solar and interplanetary precursors of geomagnetic storms in solar cycle 23

Estimating the magnetic storm effectiveness of solar and associated interplanetary phenomena is of practical importance for space weather modelling and prediction. This article presents results of a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the probable causes of geomagnetic storms during the 11-year period of solar cycle 23: 1996–2006. Potential solar causes of 229 magnetic storms (Dst ? −50 nT) were investigated with a particular focus on halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs). A 5-day time window prior to the storm onset was considered to track backward the Sun’s eruptions of halo CMEs using the SOHO/LASCO CMEs catalogue list. Solar and interplanetary (IP) properties associated with halo CMEs were investigated and correlated to the resulting geomagnetic storms (GMS). In addition, a comparative analysis between full and partial halo CME-driven storms is established. The results obtained show that about 83% of intense storms (Dst ? −100 nT) were associated with halo CMEs. For moderate storms (−100 nT < Dst ? −50 nT), only 54% had halo CME background, while the remaining 46% were assumed to be associated with corotating interaction regions (CIRs) or undetected frontside CMEs. It was observed in this study that intense storms were mostly associated with full halo CMEs, while partial halo CMEs were generally followed by moderate storms. This analysis indicates that up to 86% of intense storms were associated with interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) at 1 AU, as compared to moderate storms with only 44% of ICME association. Many other quantitative results are presented in this paper, providing an estimate of solar and IP precursor properties of GMS within an average 11-year solar activity cycle. The results of this study constitute a key step towards improving space weather modelling and prediction.     

Microwave specular scattering response of soil texture at X-band

Soil texture is an important soil parameter that is useful for meteorology, climatology, hydrology, ecology, etc. Therefore, it is important to classify soil based on soil texture (i.e., sand, silt and clay). A lot of studies with radar remote sensing have been carried out to estimate soil moisture and surface roughness, but less attention has been given to study the effect of individual soil texture on radar scattering, especially in specular direction. The main aim of this paper is to check the behavior of specular scattering with change in soil texture. This effect has also been analyzed in presence of soil moisture and surface roughness. Scattering coefficient has been retrieved for various soil texture fields with indigenously designed X-band bistatic scatterometer for a range of incidence angles (from 30° to 70° in steps of 10°) in both like polarizations, i.e., HH-polarization and VV-polarization. Observations were made at 10 GHz frequency. Four different fields were considered on the basis of soil texture variations; especially changes in sand percentage were made. Roughness (smooth soil to 1.4 cm rms surface height) and moisture (dry soil to 0.21 cm³ cm⁻³ volumetric soil moisture) conditions of these fields were varied for observations. Strong change in specular scattering coefficient is observed by changing the sand percentage in soil for HH-polarization, while in case of VV-polarization a lesser change is observed. Also a high change in specular scattering coefficient is noticed once moisture is added to the soil. It is difficult to observe the change in specular scattering coefficient with change in soil texture when surface is considered as rough. Therefore, it is important to minimize the roughness effect while observing the texture with specular scattering. For this purpose, polarization study was carried out to see how polarization can be helpful to minimize the roughness effect. The effect of soil texture on copolarization ratio is critically analyzed, and it is observed that for higher incidence angle (50°), the distinction in soil texture fields are clearly observable on the basis of copolarization ratio. This type of study will be helpful in near future to design the bistatic radar system for soil parameter monitoring, especially for cartwheel satellite system.     

冕洞特征参数与地磁暴强度及发生时间统计

地磁暴是空间天气预报的重要对象.在太阳活动周下降年和低年，冕洞发出的高速流经过三天左右行星际传输到达地球并引发的地磁暴占主导地位.目前地磁暴的预报通常依赖于1AU处卫星就位监测的太阳风参数，预报提前量只有1h左右.为了增加地磁暴预报提前量，需要从高速流和地磁暴的源头即太阳出发，建立冕洞特征参数与地磁暴的定量关系.分析了2010年5月到2016年12月的152个冕洞-地磁暴事件，利用SDO/AIA太阳极紫外图像提取了两类冕洞特征参数，分析了其与地磁暴期间ap，Dst和AE三种地磁指数的统计关系，给出冕洞特征参数与地磁暴强度以及发生时间的统计特征，为基于冕洞成像观测提前1～3天预报地磁暴提供了依据.