Solar and interplanetary precursors of geomagnetic storms in solar cycle 23

Estimating the magnetic storm effectiveness of solar and associated interplanetary phenomena is of practical importance for space weather modelling and prediction. This article presents results of a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the probable causes of geomagnetic storms during the 11-year period of solar cycle 23: 1996–2006. Potential solar causes of 229 magnetic storms (Dst ? −50 nT) were investigated with a particular focus on halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs). A 5-day time window prior to the storm onset was considered to track backward the Sun’s eruptions of halo CMEs using the SOHO/LASCO CMEs catalogue list. Solar and interplanetary (IP) properties associated with halo CMEs were investigated and correlated to the resulting geomagnetic storms (GMS). In addition, a comparative analysis between full and partial halo CME-driven storms is established. The results obtained show that about 83% of intense storms (Dst ? −100 nT) were associated with halo CMEs. For moderate storms (−100 nT < Dst ? −50 nT), only 54% had halo CME background, while the remaining 46% were assumed to be associated with corotating interaction regions (CIRs) or undetected frontside CMEs. It was observed in this study that intense storms were mostly associated with full halo CMEs, while partial halo CMEs were generally followed by moderate storms. This analysis indicates that up to 86% of intense storms were associated with interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) at 1 AU, as compared to moderate storms with only 44% of ICME association. Many other quantitative results are presented in this paper, providing an estimate of solar and IP precursor properties of GMS within an average 11-year solar activity cycle. The results of this study constitute a key step towards improving space weather modelling and prediction.     

Helio-geomagnetic influence in cardiological cases

The effects of the energetic phenomena of the Sun, flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) on the Earth’s ionosphere–magnetosphere, through the solar wind, are the sources of the geomagnetic disturbances and storms collectively known as Space Weather. The research on the influence of Space Weather on biological and physiological systems is open. In this work we study the Space Weather   impact on Acute Coronary Syndromes (ACS) distinguishing between ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes (STE–ACS) and non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes (NSTE–ACS) cases. We compare detailed patient records from the 2nd Cardiologic Department of the General Hospital of Nicaea (Piraeus, Greece) with characteristics of geomagnetic storms (_DST${\mathrm{D}}_{\mathit{ST}}$), solar wind speed and statistics of flares and CMEs which cover the entire solar cycle 23 (1997–2007). Our results indicate a relationship of ACS to helio-geomagnetic activity as the maximum of the ACS cases follows closely the maximum of the solar cycle. Furthermore, within very active periods, the ratio NSTE–ACS to STE–ACS, which is almost constant during periods of low to medium activity, changes favouring the NSTE–ACS. Most of the ACS cases exhibit a high degree of association with the recovery phase of the geomagnetic storms; a smaller, yet significant, part was found associated with periods of fast solar wind without a storm.     

Propagation of normal and faster CMEs in the interplanetary medium

We have analyzed 101 Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) events and their associated interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs) and interplanetary (IP) shocks observed during the period 1997–2005 from the list given by Mujiber Rahman et al. (2012). The aim of the present work is to correlate the interplanetary parameters such as, the speeds of IP shocks and ICMEs, CME transit time and their relation with CME parameters near the Sun. Mainly, a group of 10 faster CME events (V_INT > 2200 km/s) are compared with a list of 91 normal events of Manoharan et al. (2004). From the distribution diagrams of CME, ICME and IP shock speeds, we note that a large number of events tends to narrow towards the ambient (i.e., background) solar wind speed (∼500 km/s) in agreement with the literature. Also, we found that the IP shock speed and the average ICME speed measured at 1 AU are well correlated. In addition, the IP shock speed is found to be slightly higher than the ICME speed. While the normal events show CME travel time in the range of ∼40–80 h with a mean value of 65 h, the faster events have lower transit time with a mean value of 40 h. The effect of solar wind drag is studied using the correlation of CME acceleration with interplanetary (IP) acceleration and with other parameters of ICMEs. While the mean acceleration values of normal and faster CMEs in the LASCO FOV are 1 m/s², 18 m/s², they are −1.5 m/s² and −14 m/s² in the interplanetary medium, respectively. The relation between CME speed and IP acceleration for normal and faster events are found to agree with that of  and  except slight deviations for the faster events. It is also seen that the faster events with less travel time face higher negative acceleration (>−10 m/s²) in the interplanetary medium up to 1 AU.     

Moderate geomagnetic storms of January 22–25, 2012 and their influences on the wave components in ionosphere and upper stratosphere-mesosphere regions

Moderate geomagnetic storms occurred during January 22–25, 2012 period. The geomagnetic storms are characterized by different indices and parameters. The SYM-H value on January 22 increased abruptly to 67 nT at sudden storm commencement (SSC), followed by a sharp decrease to −87 nT. A second SSC on January 24 followed by a shock on January 25 was also observed. These SSCs before the main storms and the short recovery periods imply the geomagnetic storms are CME  -driven. The sudden jump of solar wind dynamic pressure and IMF _Bz$B_z$ are also consistent with occurrence of CMEs. This is also reflected in the change in total electron content (TEC) during the storm relative to quiet days globally. The response of the ionospheric to geomagnetic storms can also be detected from wave components that account for the majority of TEC variance during the period. The dominant coherent modes of TEC variability are diurnal and semidiurnal signals which account upto 83% and 30% of the total TEC variance over fairly exclusive ionospheric regions respectively. Comparison of TEC anomalies attributed to diurnal (DW1) and semidiurnal (SW2) tides, as well as stationary planetary waves (SPW1) at 12 UTC shows enhancement in the positive anomalies following the storm. Moreover, the impact of the geomagnetic storms are distinctly marked in the daily time series of amplitudes of DW1, SW2 and SPW1. The abrupt changes in amplitudes of DW1 (5 TECU) and SW2 (2 TECU) are observed within 20°S–20°N latitude band and along 20°N respectively while that of SPW1 is about 3 TECU. Coherent oscillation with a period of 2.4 days between interplanetary magnetic field and TEC was detected during the storm. This oscillation is also detected in the amplitudes of DW1 over EIA regions in both hemispheres. Eventhough upward coupling of quasi two day wave (QTDWs) of the same periodicity, known to have caused such oscillation, are detected in both ionosphere and upper stratosphere, this one can likely be attributed to the geomagnetic storm as it happens after the storm commencement. Moreover, further analysis has indicated that QTDWs in the ionosphere are strengthened as a result of coherent oscillation of interplanetary magnetic field with the same frequency as QTDWs. On the otherhand, occurrences of minor SSW and geomagnetic storms in quick succession complicated clear demarcation of attribution of the respective events to variability of QTDWs amplitudes over upper stratosphere.     

Solar energetic particle events during the rise phases of solar cycles 23 and 24

We present a comparative study of the properties of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and flares associated with the solar energetic particle (SEP) events in the rising phases of solar cycles (SC) 23 (1996–1998) (22 events) and 24 (2009–2011) (20 events), which are associated with type II radio bursts. Based on the SEP intensity, we divided the events into three categories, i.e. weak (intensity < 1 pfu), minor (1 pfu < intensity < 10 pfu) and major (intensity ? 10 pfu) events. We used the GOES data for the minor and major SEP events and SOHO/ERNE data for the weak SEP event. We examine the correlation of SEP intensity with flare size and CME properties. We find that most of the major SEP events are associated with halo or partial halo CMEs originating close to the sun center and western-hemisphere. The fraction of halo CMEs in SC 24 is larger than the SC 23. For the minor SEP events one event in SC23 and one event in SC24 have widths < 120° and all other events are associated with halo or partial halo CMEs as in the case of major SEP events. In case of weak SEP events, majority (more than 60%) of events are associated with CME width < 120°. For both the SC the average CMEs speeds are similar. For major SEP events, average CME speeds are higher in comparison to minor and weak events. The SEP event intensity and GOES X-ray flare size are poorly correlated. During the rise phase of solar cycle 23 and 24, we find north–south asymmetry in the SEP event source locations: in cycle 23 most sources are located in the south, whereas during cycle 24 most sources are located in the north. This result is consistent with the asymmetry found with sunspot area and intense flares.     

Relationship between substorm activity and the interplanetary medium parameters during the main phase of strong magnetic storms

In the present paper dependences of substorm activity on the solar wind velocity and southward component (Bz) of interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) during the main phase of magnetic storms, induced by the CIR and ICME events, is studied. Strong magnetic storms with close values of Dst_min?≈??100?±?10?nT are considered. For the period of 1979–2017 there are selected 26 magnetic storms induced by the CIR and ICME (MC?+?Ejecta) events. It is shown that for the CIR and ICME events the average value of the AE index (AE_aver) at the main phase of magnetic storm correlates with the solar wind electric field. The highest correlation coefficient (r?=?0.73) is observed for the magnetic storms induced by the CIR events. It is found that the AE_aver for magnetic storms induced by ICME events, unlike CIR events, increases with the growth of average value of the southward IMF Bz module. The analysis of dependence between the AE_aver and average value of the solar wind velocity (Vsw_aver) during the main phase of magnetic storm shows that in the CIR events, unlike ICME, the AE_aver correlates on the Vsw_aver.     

太阳风速度及日球电流片对CME渡越时间的影响

基于1996-2005年88个引起重大地磁暴的CME(日冕物质抛射)事件、1996-2000年的47个CME事件以及1997-2002年的29个全晕状CME事件,结合ACE卫星在1AU处的太阳风和行星际磁场观测资料以及Wilcox Solar Observatory(WSO)天文台的太阳光球层磁图,分析了背景太阳风速度和日球电流片对CME到达1AU处渡越时间预报误差的影响.结果表明,背景太阳风速度与CME渡越时间误差并没有明显的相关性,在考虑了磁云通量管轴相对黄道面夹角的影响后相关性依然不明显.然而日球电流片对CME渡越时间却有明显的影响,对于初速度较小的异侧CME事件,其渡越时间大于同侧事件;而对于具有较大初速度的CME事件,异侧事件的渡越时间明显小于同侧事件.研究结果表明,CME与太阳风以及日球电流片的相互作用并不是简单的对流相互作用,造成高速CME异侧事件快于同侧事件到达地球的因素非常复杂,有待深入研究.      

用银河宇宙线判定几个引起特大磁暴CME的运动方向

利用位于南北极尖区位置的McMurdo和Thule台站的宇宙线强度的观测数据，分析了几个引起特大磁暴CME的来向．分析结果表明，所选的与4个特大磁暴相关的CME基本是朝正对磁层顶的方向运动并与磁层作用的．通过对引起第23周两个特大磁暴的CME特征分析对照，发现CME的来向是影响磁暴强弱的一个因素．同样条件下，运动方向偏向地球一侧的CME引起的磁暴比正对地球的CME引起的磁暴要弱。     

Solar and interplanetary origins of the November 2004 superstorms

During the first half of November 2004, many solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were associated with solar active region (AR) 10696. This paper attempts to identify the solar and interplanetary origins of two superstorms which occurred on 8 and 10 November with peak intensities of Dst = −373 nT and −289 nT, respectively. Southward interplanetary magnetic fields within a magnetic cloud (MC), and a sheath + MC were the causes of these two superstorms, respectively. Two different CME propagation models [Gopalswamy, N., Yashiro, S., Kaiser, M.L. et al. Predicting the 1-AU arrival times of coronal mass ejections. J. Geophys. Res. 106, 29207–29219, 2001; Gopalswamy, N.S., Lara, A., Manoharan, P.K. et al. An empirical model to predict the 1-AU arrival of interplanetary shocks. Adv. Space Res. 36, 2289–2294, 2005] were employed to attempt to identify the solar sources. It is found that the models identify several potential CMEs as possible sources for each of the superstorms. The two Gopalswamy et al. models give the possible sources for the first superstorm as CMEs on 2330 UT 4 November 2004 or on 1454 UT 5 November 2004. For the second superstorm, the possible solar source was a CME that on 0754 UT 5 November 2004 or one that occurred on 1206 UT 5 November 2004. We note that other propagation models sometimes agree and other times disagree with the above results. It is concluded that during high solar/interplanetary activity intervals such as this one, the exact solar source is difficult to identify. More refined propagation models are needed.     

第23太阳活动周中等地磁暴行星际源的统计分析

统计了第23太阳活动周(1996--2006年)发生的183次中等强度地磁暴(-100 nT < Dst ≤ -50 nT)的行星际源,分析了中等磁暴的年分布状况以及引起中等磁暴的不同行星际结构在太阳活动周中的分布特征,同时,与强磁暴行星际源的分布状况做了对比分析,主要的统计分析结果如下. (1)共转相互作用区CIR与行星际日冕物质抛射ICME在中等磁暴中具有同等重要的作用,且在ICME中,具有磁云结构和非磁云结构的ICME在引起中等磁暴的能力方面也基本相同,但带有鞘层结构的ICME在引起中等磁暴中具有更重要的作用. (2)中等磁暴在极大年(2001年)和下降年(2003年)发生次数最多,与地磁活动的双峰年对应,在极小年(1996和2006年)发生次数最少,与地磁活动低年对应,在其他年份分布较平均. (3)中等磁暴在太阳活动极大年主要由ICME引起,在上升年和下降年CIR在其中起主要作用,且下降年基本是上升年的两倍,而对于强磁暴而言,ICME始终是最重要的行星际源.      

Coronal mass ejections acceleration problem

A statistical study of acceleration and its error of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed by the Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO) is performed. A total of 5594 CMEs events have been analyzed by using a least-square method and using the error in the height measures. We verify that slower CMEs (velocities in the interval from 200 to 500 km s⁻¹) tend to have a positive acceleration (about 1 m s⁻²) at heights above 5 solar radii, while less than 10% CMEs show an average negative acceleration (about −2.2 m s⁻²) as they propagate from 5 to 30 solar radii. For most individual CMEs one can not say if they are accelerated or decelerated, only for 8% of all observed CMEs events one can extract the sign of the acceleration in the 5–30 solar radii.     

The optical emission lines of type 1 X-ray bright Active Galactic Nuclei

A strong X-ray emission is one of the defining signatures of nuclear activity in galaxies. According to the Unified Model for Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN), both the X-ray radiation and the prominent broad emission lines, characterizing the optical and UV spectra of Type 1 AGNs, are originated in the innermost regions of the sources, close to the Super Massive Black Holes (SMBH), which power the central engine. Since the emission is concentrated in a very compact region (with typical size r?0.1$r?0.1$ pc) and it is not possible to obtain resolved images of the source, spectroscopic studies of this radiation represent the only valuable key to constrain the physical properties of matter and its structure in the center of active galaxies. Based on previous studies on the physics of the Broad Line Region (BLR) and on the X-ray spectra of broad (FWHM_Hβ ? 2000 km s⁻¹) and narrow line (1000 km s⁻¹ ?FWHM_Hβ ? 2000 km s⁻¹) emitting objects, it has been observed that the kinematic and ionization properties of matter close to the SMBHs are related together, and, in particular, that ionization is higher in narrow line sources. Here we report on the study of the optical and X-ray spectra of a sample of Type 1 AGNs, selected from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) database, within an upper redshift limit of z=0.35$z=0.35$, and detected at X-ray energies. We present analysis of the broad emission line fluxes and profiles, as well as the properties of the X-ray continuum and Fe Kα emission and we use these parameters to assess the consistency of our current AGN understanding.     

Strong geomagnetic activity forecast by neural networks under dominant southern orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field

The paper deals with the relation of the southern orientation of the north–south component _Bz$B_z$ of the interplanetary magnetic field to geomagnetic activity (GA) and subsequently a method is suggested of using the found facts to forecast potentially dangerous high GA. We have found that on a day with very high GA hourly averages of _Bz$B_z$ with a negative sign occur at least 16 times in typical cases. Since it is very difficult to estimate the orientation of _Bz$B_z$ in the immediate vicinity of the Earth one day or even a few days in advance, we have suggested using a neural-network model, which assumes the worse of the possibilities to forecast the danger of high GA – the dominant southern orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field. The input quantities of the proposed model were information about X-ray flares, type II and IV radio bursts as well as information about coronal mass ejections (CME). In comparing the GA forecasts with observations, we obtain values of the Hanssen–Kuiper skill score ranging from 0.463 to 0.727, which are usual values for similar forecasts of space weather. The proposed model provides forecasts of potentially dangerous high geomagnetic activity should the interplanetary CME (ICME), the originator of geomagnetic storms, hit the Earth under the most unfavorable configuration of cosmic magnetic fields. We cannot know in advance whether the unfavorable configuration is going to occur or not; we just know that it will occur with the probability of 31%.