Development of a regional rain retrieval algorithm for exclusive mesoscale convective systems over peninsular India

The present study emphasize the development of a region specific rain retrieval algorithm by taking into accounts the cloud features. Brightness temperatures (T_bs) from various TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) channels are calibrated with near surface rain intensity as observed from the TRMM – Precipitation Radar. It shows that T_b–R relations during exclusive-Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) events have greater dynamical range compared to combined events of non-MCS and MCS. Increased dynamical range of T_b–R relations for exclusive-MCS events have led to the development of an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based regional algorithm for rain intensity estimation. By using the exclusive MCSs algorithm, reasonably good improvement in the accuracy of rain intensity estimation is observed. A case study of a comparison of rain intensity estimation by the exclusive-MCS regional algorithm and the global TRMM 2A12 rain product with a Doppler Weather Radar shows significant improvement in rain intensity estimation by the developed regional algorithm.     

Investigation of vertical profile of rain microstructure at Ahmedabad in Indian tropical region

The microstructure of rain has been studied with observations using a vertical looking Micro Rain Radar (MRR) at Ahmedabad (23.06°N, 72.62°E), a tropical location in the Indian region. The rain height, derived from the bright band signature of melting layer of radar reflectivity profile, is found to be variable between the heights 4600 m and 5200 m. The change in the nature of rain, classified on the basis of radar reflectivity, is also observed through the MRR. It has been found that there are three types of rain, namely, convective, mixed and stratiform rain, prevailing with different vertical rain microstructures, such as, Drop Size Distribution (DSD), mean drop size, rain rate, liquid water content and average fall speed of the drops at different heights. It is observed that the vertical DSD profile is more inhomogeneous for mixed and stratiform type rain than for convective type rain. It is also found that the large number of drops of size <0.5 mm is present in convective rain whereas in stratiform rain, drops concentration is appreciable up to 1 mm. A comparison of measurements taken by ground based Disdrometer and that from the 200 m level obtained from MRR shows good agreement for rain rate and DSD at smaller rain rate values. The results may be useful for understanding rain structures over this region.     

Improved rainfall estimation over the Indian region using satellite infrared technique

The GOES Precipitation Index (GPI) technique (Arkin, 1979) for rainfall estimation has been in operation for the last three decades. However, its applications are limited to the larger temporal and spatial scales. The present study focuses on the augmentation on GPI technique by incorporating a moisture factor for the environmental correction developed by Vicente et al. (1998). It consists of two steps; in the first step the GPI technique is applied to the Kalpana-IR data for rainfall estimation over the Indian land and oceanic region and in the second step an environmental moisture correction factor is applied to the GPI-based rainfall to estimate the final rainfall. Detailed validation with rain gauges and comparison with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) merged data product (3B42) are performed and it is found that the present technique is able to estimate the rainfall with better accuracy than the GPI technique over higher temporal and spatial domains for many operational applications in and around the Indian regions using Indian geostationary satellite data. Further comparison with the Doppler Weather Radar shows that the present technique is able to retrieve the rainfall with reasonably good accuracy.     

0 °C isotherm height for satellite communication in Malaysia

The 0 °C isotherm height is an important parameter for prediction of rain attenuation of microwave and millimeter wave for Earth-space communication. The variations of 0 °C isotherm heights for two monsoon seasons have been studied based on an analysis of radiosonde over three stations. The exceedence probability statistics of rain height are compared between the two seasons. The results on the 0 °C isotherm height can be utilized for the estimation of attenuation of microwave and millimeter wave due to rain over Earth-space paths. Attenuations of radio wave due to rain at frequencies above 10 GHz and above have also been estimated using the 0 °C isotherm height so derived.     

A multilayer perceptron and multiclass support vector machine based high accuracy technique for daily rainfall estimation from MSG SEVIRI data

The current paper introduces a new multilayer perceptron (MLP) and support vector machine (SVM) based approach to improve daily rainfall estimation from the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) data. In this study, the precipitation is first detected and classified into convective and stratiform rain by two MLP models, and then four multi-class SVM algorithms were used for daily rainfall estimation. Relevant spectral and textural input features of the developed algorithms were derived from the spectral MSG SEVIRI radiometer channels. The models were trained using radar rainfall data set colected over north Algeria. Validation of the proposed daily rainfall estimation technique was performed by rain gauge network data set recorded over north Algeria. Thus, several statistical scores were calculated, such as correlation coefficient (r), root mean square error (RMSE), mean error (Bias), and mean absolute error (MAE). The findings given by: (r = 0.97, bias = 0.31 mm, RMSE = 2.20 mm and MAE = 1.07 mm), showed a quite satisfactory relationship between the estimation and the respective observed daily precipitation. Moreover, the comparison of the results with those of two advanced techniques based on random forests (RF) and weighted ‘k’ nearest neighbor (WkNN) showed higher accuracy obtained by the proposed model.     

Analysis of rain attenuation prediction models at Ku-band in Thailand

The performance of the existing rain attenuation models in tropical zones is still a debated issue due to the lack of measurements reported from these areas of the world to develop and validate prediction models. A three-year (2003–2005) campaign of rainfall rate and rain attenuation measurements was conducted on a satellite beacon link located in a tropical region of Thailand. The cumulative distributions of rain attenuation derived from the measured data are presented and compared with those obtained with existing prediction models.     

Variation of rain drop size distribution with rain rate at a few coastal and high altitude stations in southern peninsular India

Rain drop size distribution (DSD) was measured at four places in Southern India {Thiruvananthapuram, Kochi, Munnar and Sriharikota (SHAR)} using a Joss–Waldvogel (JW) impact type disdrometer. The data for each minute were corrected for dead time errors and rain rate was computed from the corrected data. The data for a whole month were then sorted according to rain rate (R) into several classes ranging from 0.1 to >100 mm/h. The average DSD in each class was computed, and the lognormal distribution function was fitted to the average. In all the cases, the function fitted the data very well. The fit parameters were found to have dependence on rain rate. The total number of drops (N_T), the geometric mean diameter (D_g) and the standard geometric deviation (σ) were also computed from the fit parameters. The standard geometric deviation (σ) was found to be more or less constant with rain rate at all the sites and in all months. The other two parameters (N_T and D_g) were found to vary exponentially with rain rate except in Munnar, a high altitude station. At Thiruvananthapuram, in most of the months, N_T increased exponentially with rain rate up to some value of R, which was different in different months, and then remained more or less constant or decrease slightly. In all cases, the variation of N_T and D_g was such that N_TD_g³ increased linearly with rain rate.     

Relative amplitude of the total electron content variations depending on geomagnetic activity

We developed a method of estimation of a relative amplitude dI/I of the total electron content (TEC) variations in the ionosphere as deduced from the data of the global GPS receivers network. To obtain statistically significant results we picked out three latitudinal belts provided in the Internet by the maximum number of GPS sites. They are high-latitudinal belt (50–80°N, 200–300°E; 59 sites), mid latitude belt (20–50°N, 200–300°E; 817 sites), and equatorial belt (±20°N, 0–360°E; 76 sites). The results of the analysis of the diurnal and latitudinal dependencies of dI/I and dI/I distribution probability for 52 days with different levels of geomagnetic activity are presented. It was found that on average the relative amplitude of the TEC variations varies within the range 0–10% proportionally to the value of the K_p geomagnetic index. In quiet conditions the relative amplitude dI/I of the TEC variations at night significantly exceeds the daytime relative amplitude. At high levels of magnetic field disturbances, the geomagnetic control of the amplitude of TEC variations at high and middle latitudes is much more significant than the regular diurnal variations. At the equatorial belt, on average, the amplitude of TEC variations in quiet and disturbed periods almost does not differ. The obtained results may be useful for development of the theory of ionospheric irregularities.     

Rainfall estimation over a Mediterranean region using a method based on various spectral parameters of SEVIRI-MSG

The ultimate objective of this paper is the estimation of rainfall over an area in Algeria using data from the SEVIRI radiometer (Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager). To achieve this aim, we use a new Convective/Stratiform Rain Area Delineation Technique (CS-RADT). The satellite rainfall retrieval technique is based on various spectral parameters of SEVIRI that express microphysical and optical cloud properties. It uses a multispectral thresholding technique to distinguish between stratiform and convective clouds. This technique (CS-RADT) is applied to the complex situation of the Mediterranean climate of this region. The tests have been conducted during the rainy seasons of 2006/2007 and 2010/2011 where stratiform and convective precipitation is recorded. The developed scheme (CS-RADT) is calibrated by instantaneous meteorological radar data to determine thresholds, and then rain rates are assigned to each cloud type by using radar and rain gauge data. These calibration data are collocated with SEVIRI data in time and space.     

Probing the method of correcting Faraday rotation in vector magnetograms

By analyzing the vector magnetograms of Huairou Solar Observing Station (HSOS) taken at the line center (0.0 Å) and the line wing (−0.12 Å) of FeI λ5324.19 Å, we make an estimate of the measured errors in transversal azimuths (δ?) caused by Faraday rotation. Since many factors, such as the magnetic saturation and scattered light, can affect the measurement accuracy of the longitudinal magnetic field in the umbrae of sunspots, we limit our study in the region ∣B_z∣ < 800 G. The main mean azimuth rotations are about 4°, 6°, 7° and 9°, while ∣B_z∣ are in the ranges of 400–500 G, 500–600 G, 600–700 G and 700–800 G, respectively. Moreover, we find there is also an azimuth rotation of about 8° at the wavelength offset −0.12 Å of the line compared against a previous numerical simulation.     

An empirical model for the variation of rain drop size distribution with rain rate at a few locations in southern India

A Joss–Waldvogel impact type disdrometer was installed at four different locations in the Indian peninsula during various periods from 2001 till date. The data are analysed to study the nature of rain drop size distribution (DSD) in this region. Out of the three well known distributions that describe DSD, namely, the Marshall–Palmer, Gamma and Lognormal, it has been found that Lognormal distribution fits the DSD in this region better than the other ones. Lognormal distributions for different rain rates were then derived by fitting the lognormal function to the data using a curve fitting software. Then the variation of fit parameters with rain rate was evaluated. Incorporating these variations, into the Lognormal distribution, an empirical equation that describes the DSD in this region for different rain rates was derived. Then this equation was tested with sample data from each of these stations. The data used for validation were not used for fitting lognormal equation to derive the fit parameters. The correlation between the DSD measured and derived using the empirical model was found to be quite good (0.9) except in some cases where the coefficient dropped to 0.75. The empirical model can be updated when more data are available.     

Thermal and TEC anomalies detection using an intelligent hybrid system around the time of the Saravan,Iran, (Mw = 7.7) earthquake of 16 April 2013

A powerful earthquake of M_w = 7.7 struck the Saravan region (28.107° N, 62.053° E) in Iran on 16 April 2013. Up to now nomination of an automated anomaly detection method in a non linear time series of earthquake precursor has been an attractive and challenging task. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) have revealed strong potentials in accurate time series prediction. This paper presents the first study of an integration of ANN and PSO method in the research of earthquake precursors to detect the unusual variations of the thermal and total electron content (TEC) seismo-ionospheric anomalies induced by the strong earthquake of Saravan. In this study, to overcome the stagnation in local minimum during the ANN training, PSO as an optimization method is used instead of traditional algorithms for training the ANN method. The proposed hybrid method detected a considerable number of anomalies 4 and 8 days preceding the earthquake. Since, in this case study, ionospheric TEC anomalies induced by seismic activity is confused with background fluctuations due to solar activity, a multi-resolution time series processing technique based on wavelet transform has been applied on TEC signal variations. In view of the fact that the accordance in the final results deduced from some robust methods is a convincing indication for the efficiency of the method, therefore the detected thermal and TEC anomalies using the ANN + PSO method were compared to the results with regard to the observed anomalies by implementing the mean, median, Wavelet, Kalman filter, Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Genetic Algorithm (GA) methods. The results indicate that the ANN + PSO method is quite promising and deserves serious attention as a new tool for thermal and TEC seismo anomalies detection.     

Empirical model of the TEC response to the geomagnetic activity over the North American region

The paper presents an empirical model of the total electron content (TEC) response to the geomagnetic activity described by the K_p-index. The model is built on the basis of TEC measurements covering the region of North America (50°W–150°W, 10°N–60°N) for the period of time between October 2004 and December 2009. By using a 2D (latitude-time) cross-correlation analysis it is found that the ionospheric response to the geomagnetic activity over the considered geographic region and at low solar activity revealed both positive and negative phases of response. The both phases of the ionospheric response have different duration and time delay with respect to the geomagnetic storm. It was found that these two parameters of the ionospheric response depend on the season and geographical latitude. The presence of two phases, positive and negative, of the ionospheric response imposed the implementation of two different time delay constants in order to properly describe the two different delayed reactions. The seasonal dependence of the TEC response to geomagnetic storms is characterized by predominantly positive response in winter with a short (usually ∼5–6 h) time delay as well as mainly negative response in summer with a long (larger than 15 h) time delay. While the TEC response in March and October is more close to the winter one the response in April and September is similar to the summer one.     

Tilts and polarity separation in the sunspot groups and active regions at the ascending and descending phases of the cycle 23

The Solar Feature Catalogues for sunspots and active regions measured with SOHO/MDI instrument and Ca II K3 spectroheliograph of the Paris-Meudon Observatory are analyzed with the automated classification technique for sunspot groups and active region polarities. We report the first classification results for daily variations of tilt angles (normal and trigonometric ones) in sunspot groups (SG) and active (AR) regions in the cycle 23. The average normal tilts are presented for every year at the ascending and descending phases of the cycle 23 which are similar to those deduced by other authors for the cycles 19–22. The normal tilts of both the sunspot groups and active regions are shown to increase in the ascending phase and a decrease in the descending phase. Similar to SG and AR areas, the trigonometric tilts are shown to have the noticeable North–South asymmetry with the Southern hemisphere dominant in the selected ascending and descending periods. The normal tilt variations with latitude follow Joy’s law revealing a periodicity along the meridian of about 10° and reaching the maximum of 14° at the latitude of about 32° corresponding to the top of the ‘royal zone’ where the sunspots appear. The variations of polarity separation with a latitude are in an anti-phase with those of the tilts reaching a maximum at the latitude of 35° and showing a small positive separation for the groups/active regions in a vicinity of the average tilts ±40°. The ratio R of the polarity separation to the trigonometric tilt fits the linear function of a latitude φ as R = −0.0213φ − 0.1245 confirming positive separation for the polarities of active regions with the average tilts, or the dominance of activity in the Southern hemisphere activity, for the selected period of observations.     

Performance evaluation of some rain rate conversion models for microwave propagation studies

An important characteristic of rainfall levels at a particular place is the statistical distribution of rainfall rate. In this paper, 5-min integration time rainfall data for the Northcentral region of Nigeria was obtained from the Tropospheric Data Acquisition Network (TRODAN), Anyigba, Nigeria. Also, 1-min integration time rainfall was measured at Minna, Nigeria. In order to obtain the optimal rain rate model suitable for this region, two globally recognised rain rate models were critically evaluated and compared with the 1-min measurements. These are the ITU-R P.837-7 and Lavergnat-Gole (L-G) models. The results obtained showed that the ITU-R P.837-7 and L-G models respectively underestimated the measured rain rate by 7.3 mm/h and 9 mm/h at time percentage exceedance of 0.1%, while they underestimated the measured rain rate by 23.4 mm/h and 13 mm/h respectively at 0.01%. At 0.001%, the measured rain rate was overestimated by the ITU-R P.837-7 and L-G models by 27.4 mm/h and 3 mm/h respectively. Further performance evaluation of the predefined models was carried out using different error metrics such as sum of absolute error (SAE), mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), standard deviation (STDEV) and Spearman’s rank correlation. The results obtained adjudged the Lavergnat-Gole model as the best rain rate prediction model for this region.     

Doppler observations of infrasonic waves of meteorological origin at ionospheric heights

Ionospheric effects of meteorological origin observed by the continuous HF Doppler sounder over the Czech Republic are reported in this paper. We focused on detection of waves of periods 1–10 min. We discuss the influence of dynamics and intensity of active weather systems on the occurrence of short period waves and dependence of the observed ionospheric effects on the height of reflection of the sounding radio wave. We observed 3–5 min waves during a severe weather event in summer and 2.5–4 min waves during a severe weather event in winter. We excluded possible geomagnetic origin of these oscillations by the analysis of fluctuations of the local geomagnetic field. In eight cases of 10, wave activity in the analysed period range was not significantly increased comparing to quiet days. The intensity of weather systems as well as the location of potential sources of waves towards the points of HF Doppler shift observation influence significantly the occurrence of infrasonic waves in the ionosphere. The results in Central Europe differ considerably from those previously obtained in North America. As a possible reason, we discuss different intensity and dynamics of weather systems in both regions.     

3D Imaging of the OH mesospheric emissive layer

A new and original stereo imaging method is introduced to measure the altitude of the OH nightglow layer and provide a 3D perspective map of the altitude of the layer centroid. Near-IR photographs of the OH layer are taken at two sites separated by a 645 km distance. Each photograph is processed in order to provide a satellite view of the layer. When superposed, the two views present a common diamond-shaped area. Pairs of matched points that correspond to a physical emissive point in the common area are identified in calculating a normalized cross-correlation coefficient (NCC). This method is suitable for obtaining 3D representations in the case of low-contrast objects. An observational campaign was conducted in July 2006 in Peru. The images were taken simultaneously at Cerro Cosmos (12°09′08.2″ S, 75°33′49.3″ W, altitude 4630 m) close to Huancayo and Cerro Verde Tellolo (16°33′17.6″ S, 71°39′59.4″ W, altitude 2272 m) close to Arequipa. 3D maps of the layer surface were retrieved and compared with pseudo-relief intensity maps of the same region. The mean altitude of the emission barycenter is located at 86.3 km on July 26. Comparable relief wavy features appear in the 3D and intensity maps. It is shown that the vertical amplitude of the wave system varies as exp (Δz/2H) within the altitude range Δz = 83.5–88.0 km, H being the scale height. The oscillatory kinetic energy at the altitude of the OH layer is comprised between 3 × 10⁻⁴ and 5.4 × 10⁻⁴ J/m³, which is 2–3 times smaller than the values derived from partial radio wave at 52°N latitude.     

Using S-band dual polarized radar for convective/stratiform rain indexing and the correspondence with AMSR-E GSFC profiling algorithm

The separation of rain types in convective and stratiform regimes has long been a goal in microwave remote sensing of precipitation research. In this essence, a dual polarized radar based indexing scheme that provides information on convective and stratiform (C/S) rain regimes has been presented in correspondence with advanced microwave scanning radiometer – earth observing system (AMSR-E) GSFC profiling algorithm estimate of convective rain percentage. The dual polarized radar based C/S indexing scheme first retrieves the normalized gamma drop size distribution parameters, median volume drop diameter (D₀) and concentration parameter (N_w), from dual polarized radar measurements Z_H and Z_DR, representing reflectivity and differential reflectivity respectively, by means of the genetic programming approach. Next, the C/S rain index is calculated based on the formulation of an empirical relation in N_w–D₀ domain. The scheme has been inspected and applied on measurements from the S-band Chilbolton dual polarized radar. A considerable number of “coincident” cases from the radar and the AMSR-E observations are investigated. It has been revealed that the dual polarized radar based C/S rain indexing is in a similar pattern with the AMSR-E GSFC profiling algorithm estimate of convective rain percentage. Generally, as C/S rain index value increases, which signifies a stratiform to convective trend, the AMSR-E convective rain percentage also increases.     

Investigation of GPS-TEC measurements using ANN method indicating seismo-ionospheric anomalies around the time of the Chile (Mw = 8.2) earthquake of 01 April 2014

In 94 km NW of Iquique in Chile (19.610°S, 70.776°W) a powerful earthquake of M_w = 8.2 took place at 23:46:47 UTC (20:46:47 LT) on April 01, 2014. Using GPS-TEC (Total Electron Content) measurements, potential unusual variations around the time and location of the Chile earthquake have been detected based on the median and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) methods. The indices D_st, K_p, A_p and F10.7 were used to distinguish pre-earthquake anomalies from the other anomalies related to the solar-geomagnetic activities. Using the median method, striking anomalies in time series of TEC data are observed 4 days before the earthquake at 14:00 and 16:00 UTC. The ANN method detected a number of anomalies, 4 (02:00 and 16:00 UTC) and 13 (24:00 UTC) days preceding the earthquake. The results indicate that the ANN method due to its capability of non linear learning is quite promising and deserves serious attention as a robust predictor tool for seismo-ionospheric anomalies detection.     

Time of flight measurements over a radio link from Uppsala to Bruntingthorpe and their application to testing predictions methods that approximate the ray tracing technique

Time of flight measurements (TOF) over the radio link between Uppsala (Tx: 59.9°N, 17.6°E) and Bruntingthorpe (Rx: 52.5°N, 1.1°W) have been performed every 2 min at six frequencies (4.637, 6.954, 8.008, 10.391, 11.118, and 14.364 MHz) during the period November 2006–January 2008. Such measurements have been compared with the TOF provided by three prediction methods that approximate the ray tracing technique: IRI-95, SIRM&BR_D, and ICEPAC. The root mean square deviation (rms) between TOF monthly median measurements and TOF monthly median predictions and the differences (DP) between the length of the median and predicted ray path have been calculated. The results, which are presented in terms of rms and DP for different seasons and different time periods, have indicated that the approximate methods are inadequate and that for more accurate predictions ray tracing techniques should be applied.