天基雷达观测空间碎片的研究现状及关键技术分析

文章针对空间碎片观测中尚未得到确切观测数据的危险碎片的观测需求,综合分析了国内外的研究水平和现状,对天基雷达观测的需求和关键技术开展研究,提出了天基空间碎片观测有三个关键技术需要解决,即如何确定雷达工作体制和平台轨道以提高观测效率,如何有效探测尺度只有几个毫米-几个厘米的细小目标,如何对观测到的空间碎片进行分类和精确定轨。     

Evaluation of a satellite constellation for active debris removal

This paper analyzes an example of a three-dimensional constellation of debris removal satellites and proposes an effective constellation using a delta-V analysis that discusses the advisability of rendezvousing satellites with space debris. Lambert?s Equation was used to establish a means of analysis to construct a constellation of debris removal satellites, which has a limit of delta-V injection by evaluating the amount of space debris that can be rendezvoused by a certain number of removal satellite. Consequently, we determine a constellation of up to 38 removal satellites for debris removal, where the number of space debris rendezvoused by a single removal satellite is not more than 25, removing up to 584 pieces of debris total. Even if we prepare 38 removal satellites in their respective orbits, it is impossible to remove all of the space debris. Although many removal satellites, over 100 for example, can remove most of the space debris, this method is economically disproportionate. However, we can also see the removal satellites are distributed nearly evenly. Accordingly, we propose a practical two-stage strategy. The first stage is to implement emergent debris removal with the 38 removal satellites. When we find a very high probability of collision between a working satellite and space debris, one of the removal satellites in the constellation previously constructed in orbit initiates a maneuver of emergent debris removal. The second stage is a long-term space debris removal strategy to suppress the increase of space debris derived from collisions among the pieces of space debris. The constellation analyzed in this paper, which consists of the first 38 removal satellites, can remove half of the over 1000 dangerous space debris among others, and then the constellation increases the number of the following removal satellites in steps. At any rate, an adequate orbital configuration and constellation form is very important for both space debris removal and economic efficiency. Though the size of constellation of debris removal satellites would be small originally, such a constellation of satellites should be one of the initial constellations of removal satellites to ensure the safety of the future orbital environment.     

A sensitivity study of the effectiveness of active debris removal in LEO

The near-Earth orbital debris population will continue to increase in the future due to ongoing space activities, on-orbit explosions, and accidental collisions among resident space objects. Commonly adopted mitigation measures, such as limiting postmission orbital lifetimes of satellites to less than 25 years, will slow down the population growth, but will be insufficient to stabilize the environment. To better limit the growth of the future debris population, the remediation option, i.e., removing existing large and massive objects from orbit, needs to be considered. This paper does not intend to address the technical or economical issues for active debris removal. Rather, the objective is to provide a sensitivity study to illustrate and quantify the effectiveness of various remediation options. An effective removal criterion based upon mass and collision probability is developed. This study includes simulations with removal rates ranging from 5 to 20 objects per year, starting in the year 2020. The outcome of each simulation is analyzed and compared with others. The summary of the study serves as a general guideline for future debris removal consideration.     

Investigation of national policy shifts to impact orbital debris environments

Low earth orbit has become increasingly congested as the satellite population has grown over the past few decades, making orbital debris a major concern for the operational stability of space assets. This congestion was highlighted by the collision of the Iridium 33 and Cosmos 2251 satellites in 2009. This paper addresses the current state of orbital debris regulation in the United States and asks what might be done through policy change to mitigate risks in the orbital debris environment. A brief discussion of the nature of orbital debris addresses the major contributing factors including size classes, locations of population concentrations, projected satellite populations, and current challenges presented in using post-mission active debris removal to mitigate orbital debris. An overview of the current orbital debris regulatory structure of the United States reveals the fragmented nature of having six regulating bodies providing varying levels of oversight to their markets. A closer look into the regulatory policy of these agencies shows that, while they all take direction from The U.S. Government Orbital Debris Mitigation Standard Practices, this policy is a guideline with no real penalty for non-compliance. Various policy solutions to the orbital debris problem are presented, ranging from a business as usual approach to a consolidated regulation system which would encourage spacecraft operator compliance. The positive aspects of these options are presented as themes that would comprise an effective policy shift towards successful LEO conservation. Potential economic and physical limitations to this policy approach are also addressed.     

A model for the evolution of the on-orbit man-made debris environment

A model for the evolution of the low Earth orbit man-made debris population is presented and the results of several test cases discussed. Debris sources include normal operations in space, explosions occurring on spacecraft in orbit, and collisions between objects in orbit; the stochastic occurrence of these deposition events is modeled using Monte Carlo techniques. A technique for discriminating between objects populating long-life vs rapid-decay orbits is discussed and applied to the analysis of debris contributions from collisions of comparable sized objects. In varying degrees, each of the cases presented indicate there is cause for concern for spacecraft and space operations from the 1990s onward-man-made debris will play a role which may vary from presenting a considerable hazard to certain operations or certain spacecraft to effectively prohibiting the use of certain spaceccraft or space operations.     

Design and development of correlation techniques to maintain a space surveillance system catalogue

A growing interest exists in a future, autonomous European Space Surveillance System (ESSS). Currently, most of the knowledge about Earth-orbiting space objects is based on information provided by the USASPACECOM. This paper presents the required initial orbit determination (IOD) and correlation techniques to process optical measurements. Former studies were focused on the handling of radar measurements, which are summarised with the aim of describing a global procedure for processing hybrid measurement types (combination of radar and optic data for catalogue maintenance). The introduction of manoeuvres are presented due to their importance in the space object catalogue maintenance.The detection of uncatalogued objects and the successful correlation of already catalogued objects involve two different tasks for telescopes: survey and tasking. Assumptions for both strategies are developed on the basis of the previous work developed at the University of Berne (see [T. Flohrer, T. Schildknecht, R. Musci, E. Stöveken, Performance estimation for GEO space surveillance, Advances in Space Research 35 (2005). [1]; T. Flohrer, T. Schildknecht, R. Musci, Proposed strategies for optical observations in a future European Space Surveillance Network, presented in the 36th COSPAR Scientific Assembly (2006). [2]; R. Musci, T. Schildknecht, M. Ploner, Orbit improvement for GEO objects using follow-up observations, Advances in Space Research 34 (2004). [3]; R. Musci, T. Schildknecht, M. Ploner, G. Beutler, Orbit improvement for GTO objects using follow-up observations, Advances in Space Research 35 (2005). [4]; R. Musci, T. Schildknecht, T. Flohrer, G. Beutler, Concept for a catalogue of space debris in GEO, Proceedings of the Fourth European Conference on Space Debris, (ESA SP-587, 2005). [5]]). When a new object appears in the field of view, initial orbit determination must be performed. When only one telescope per site is available, the initial measurements are separated by only a few seconds. Therefore, the initial orbit determination is quite inaccurate due to bad mathematical conditioning of the problem. In order to improve the accuracy of the initial orbit determination, several follow-up observations of the object are required. This implies that the telescope needs to track the detected objects over a long period, and therefore the time available for surveying is reduced. By processing the additional follow-up measurements, separated now by a few hours, the initial orbit determination gives more accurate results and the object can be recovered after an orbital revolution. When several telescopes per site are available, the optical strategies may be modified. The survey tasks can be distributed between the available telescopes. In this way the number of images corresponding to each object increases and to track the detected object over long periods is not always needed. Numerical results will be shown in order to evaluate the accuracy and features of the different telescope strategies. A key point for performing efficiently the cataloguing process is the calculation of the estimated state vector covariance matrix. The covariance matrix analysis allows an adaptive tasking-survey telescope scheduling. Moreover, the implementation of a proper batch orbit determination process by means of a square root information filter (SRIF) requires a realistic initial covariance matrix.Hybrid measurements are available from objects that can be observed through both radar and optical sensors (e.g. GTO objects). The batch orbit determination and correlation process of hybrid measurements is also based on SRIF using an extended measurement model. Both the initial orbit determination methods using radar and optical measurements have to be sufficiently accurate to initialise SRIF correctly. In order to avoid filter divergence, the estimated covariance must be correctly updated after processing both kinds of measurements. The implemented algorithms are explained and their performance is shown through realistic simulations.Techniques to detect and characterise object manoeuvres during the cataloguing process have been developed and implemented. Four main groups of manoeuvre objects have been established by means of their observed permitted orbital ranges (GEO, LEO, MEO–GPS, Molniya). The study is based on the historical TLEs files. When an object with an uncatalogued orbit appears, a comparison between the new orbit and the orbits contained in the permitted ranges of one of the manoeuvre groups is performed. If the required Δa and/or Δi to convert the lost orbit into the detected orbit seems to be feasible, a manoeuvre will be identified and the orbit will be updated in the catalogue. Otherwise, it will be decided that a new object was found. For this purpose, a procedure to estimate the manoeuvres and reset orbits have been developed.     

Biobjective planning of an active debris removal mission

The growth of the orbital debris population has been a concern to the international space community for several years. Recent studies have shown that the debris environment in Low Earth Orbit (LEO, defined as the region up to 2000 km altitude) has reached a point where the debris population will continue to increase even if all future launches are suspended. As the orbits of these objects often overlap the trajectories of satellites, debris create a potential collision risk. However, several studies show that about 5 objects per year should be removed in order to keep the future LEO environment stable. In this article, we propose a biobjective time dependent traveling salesman problem (BiTDTSP) model for the problem of optimally removing debris and use a branch and bound approach to deal with it.     

天基照相跟踪空间碎片批处理轨道确定研究

随着国内外天基观测空间碎片研究的展开,文章提出了利用跟踪卫星的CCD(Charge
Coupled Device)相机对空间碎片进行轨道探测的方法,首先建立了CCD照相观测模型和基于 照相观测 的空间碎片批处理轨道确定模型。通过对CCD相机底片归算方法的分析可知,利用
CCD相机所获得的观测数据与跟踪卫星的姿态无关,且其精度只与测量和坐标转换计算的精 度有关,在测量和计算中可获得较高的精度。分别对分布密度较高的低轨道和地球同步 轨道区域的空间碎片进行了定轨分析。仿真结果表明,定轨时采用两个跟踪弧段的照相数据 定轨精度大大高于一个弧段照相数据的定轨精度;跟踪卫星距离空间碎片越近,定轨精度越 高;低轨道空间碎片的定轨精度高于地球同步轨道上的空间碎片定轨精度。
     

实施卫星激光定轨的建议

随着卫星对地观测分辨率的不断提高 ,对卫星在轨位置精度的要求也越来越高。采用星载激光后向反射镜阵列与卫星激光测距定轨方法 ,可以获得厘米级的定轨精度。文中针对我国国情 ,建议我国的导航卫星和对地观测卫星采用激光定轨技术 ,并提出了创立卫星激光定轨条件的实施建议。     

Conceptualizing an economically,legally, and politically viable active debris removal option

It has become increasingly clear in recent years that the issue of space debris, particularly in low-Earth orbit, can no longer be ignored or simply mitigated. Orbital debris currently threatens safe space flight for both satellites and humans aboard the International Space Station. Additionally, orbital debris might impact Earth upon re-entry, endangering human lives and damaging the environment with toxic materials. In summary, orbital debris seriously jeopardizes the future not only of human presence in space, but also of human safety on Earth. While international efforts to mitigate the current situation and limit the creation of new debris are useful, recent studies predicting debris evolution have indicated that these will not be enough to ensure humanity?s access to and use of the near-Earth environment in the long-term. Rather, active debris removal (ADR) must be pursued if we are to continue benefiting from and conducting space activities. While the concept of ADR is not new, it has not yet been implemented. This is not just because of the technical feasibility of such a scheme, but also because of the host of economic, legal/regulatory, and political issues associated with debris remediation. The costs of ADR are not insignificant and, in today?s restrictive fiscal climate, are unlikely/to be covered by any single actor. Similarly, ADR concepts bring up many unresolved questions about liability, the protection of proprietary information, safety, and standards. In addition, because of the dual use nature of ADR technologies, any venture will necessarily require political considerations. Despite the many unanswered questions surrounding ADR, it is an endeavor worth pursuing if we are to continue relying on space activities for a variety of critical daily needs and services. Moreover, we cannot ignore the environmental implications that an unsustainable use of space will imply for life on Earth in the long run. This paper aims to explore some of these challenges and propose an economically, politically, and legally viable ADR option. Much like waste management on Earth, cleaning up space junk will likely lie somewhere between a public good and a private sector service. An international, cooperative, public-private partnership concept can address many of these issues and be economically sustainable, while also driving the creation of a proper set of regulations, standards and best practices.     

Active debris removal: Recent progress and current trends

According to all available findings at international level, the Kessler syndrome, increase of the number of space debris in Low Earth Orbits due to mutual collisions, appears now to be a fact, triggered mainly by several major break-ups in orbit which occurred since 2007. The time may have come to study how to clean this fundamentally useful orbital region in an active way.CNES has studied potential solutions for more than 12 years! The paper aims at reviewing the current status of these activities.The high level requirements are fundamental, and have to be properly justified. The working basis, as confirmed through IADC studies consists in the removal of 5–10 integer objects from the overcrowded orbits, spent upper stages or old satellites, as identified by NASA.The logic of CNES activities consider a stepped approach aiming at progressively gaining the required Technological Readiness Level on the features required for Active Debris Removal which have not yet been demonstrated in orbit. The rendezvous with a non-cooperative, un-prepared, tumbling debris is essential. Following maturation gained with Research and Technology programs, a set of small orbital demonstrators could enable a confidence high enough to perform a full end to end demonstration performing the de-orbiting of a large debris and paving the way for the development of a first generation operational de-orbiter.The internal CNES studies, led together by the Toulouse Space Centre and the Paris Launcher Directorate, have started in 2008 and led to a detailed System Requirements Document used for the Industrial studies.Three industrial teams did work under CNES contract during 2011, led by Thales Alenia Space, Bertin Technologies and Astrium Space Transportation, with numerous sub-contractors. Their approaches were very rich, complementary, and innovative. The second phase of studies began mid-2012. Some key questions nevertheless have to be resolved, and correspond generally to current IADC actions:The casualty risk associated to a “passive” de-orbitation is of paramount importance, major driver between passive and active re-entry,The residual movement of debris is crucial for the interfacing phase, whichever the solution is,The debris physical state in orbit is a major question,Some solutions increase the collision risk, but for a limited time period; we may not have yet the appropriate tools.The paper gives a status of where we stand, of the cooperation with the international partners, and raises the questions which remain open and have to be dealt with in the coming months.     

Collision Risk Mitigation in Geostationary Orbit

The short- and long-term effects of spacecraft explosions, as a function of the end-of-life re-orbit altitude above the geostationary orbit (GEO), were analyzed in terms of their additional contribution to the debris flux in the GEO ring. The simulated debris clouds were propagated for 72yrs, taking into account all the relevant orbital perturbations.The results obtained show that 6–7 additional explosions in GEO would be sufficient, in the long term, to double the current collision risk with sizable objects in GEO. Unfortunately, even if spacecraft were to re-orbit between 300 and 500km above GEO, this would not significantly improve the situation. In fact, an altitude increase of at least 2000km would have to be adopted to reduce by one order of magnitude the long-term risk of collision among geostationary satellites and explosion fragments. The optimal debris mitigation strategy should be a compromise between the reliability and effectiveness of spacecraft end-of-life passivation, the re-orbit altitude and the acceptable debris background in the GEO ring. However, for as long as the re-orbit altitudes currently used are less than 500km above GEO, new spacecraft explosions must be avoided in order to preserve the geostationary environment over the long term.     

Assessing the Risk of Orbital Debris Impact

A Space Debris Impact Risk Analysis Tool (SDIRAT) was developed and implemented to assess the orbital debris impact risk on a specified target in Earth orbit, in terms of flux, relative velocity, impact velocity, direction of the incoming particles, debris mass and diameter. Based on a deterministic approach, SDIRAT uses a realistic orbital debris population where each representative particle is identified by its rectangular coordinates (position and velocity) at a reference epoch. Using this information, some geometrical algorithms were developed and implemented to evaluate the contribution of each particle to the incoming flux. The position of the particle with respect to a specified target drives the selection criteria to reject, or select, it as a possible projectile. On the other hand, the relative velocity vector can be used to estimate the impact direction of the incoming flux. SDIRAT was conceived as a general tool for a variety of scenarios, such as low circular and elliptical orbits, up to the geosynchronous ring. This paper presents some examples of possible applications, including the computation of the incoming debris flux on SAX (low Earth orbit), SIRIO (geosynchronous orbit) and the IRIS upper stage (elliptical orbit). Other applications assess the impact risk for the Soviet Radar Ocean Reconnaissance Satellites Cosmos 1900 and Cosmos 1932.     

Ground assisted rendezvous with geosynchronous satellites for the disposal of space debris by means of Earth-oriented tethers

Previous studies have shown that extended length Earth-oriented tethers in the geosynchronous (GEO) region can be used to re-orbit satellites to disposal orbits. One such approach involves the extension of a GEO based tether, collection of a debris object, and retraction of the tether, which transfers the retracted configuration to a higher energy orbit for debris disposal. The re-extension of the tether after debris disposal returns the configuration to the near-GEO altitude. The practical feasibility of such a system depends on the ability to collect GEO debris objects, attach them to a deployed tether system, and retract the tethers for transfer to the disposal orbits.This study addresses the collection and delivery of debris objects to the deployed tether system in GEO. The investigation considers the number, type and the characteristics of the debris objects as well as the collection tug that can be ground controlled to detect, rendezvous and dock with the debris objects for their delivery to the tethers system.A total of more than 400 objects are in drift orbits crossing all longitudes either below or above the geostationary radius. More than 130 objects are also known to librate around the stable points in GEO with periods of libration up to five or more years. A characterization of the position and velocity of the debris objects relative to the collection tug is investigated. Typical rendezvous performance requirements for uncooperative GEO satellites are examined, and the similarities with other approaches such as the ESA's CX-OLEV commercial mission proposal to extend the life of geostationary telecommunication satellites are noted.     

美国DMSP-F13卫星解体事件对空间碎片环境影响分析

2015 年2 月3 日,美国DMSP-F13 卫星发生爆炸解体,产生了百余块编目空间碎片。该卫星解体碎片主要分布在轨道高度600～1200 km 范围内,其中近50%的编目碎片在轨寿命将超过20 年,会对未来空间碎片环境构成长期影响。结合我国空间碎片环境工程模型SDEEM 对DMSP-F13 解体事件的分析结果显示,此次解体事件造成邻近轨道区域内空间碎片空间密度增加,对该区域航天器安全运行产生影响。     

Additional historical solid rocket motor burns

The use of orbital solid rocket motors (SRM) is responsible for the release of a high number of slag and Al₂O₃ dust particles which contribute to the space debris environment. This contribution has been modeled for the ESA space debris model MASTER (Meteoroid and Space Debris Terrestrial Environment Reference). The current model version, MASTER-2005, is based on the simulation of 1076 orbital SRM firings which mainly contributed to the long-term debris environment. SRM firings on very low earth orbits which produce only short living particles are not considered. A comparison of the modeled flux with impact data from returned surfaces shows that the shape and quantity of the modeled SRM dust distribution matches that of recent Hubble Space Telescope (HST) solar array measurements very well. However, the absolute flux level for dust is under-predicted for some of the analyzed Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) surfaces. This indicates that some past SRM firings are not included in the current event database. Thus it is necessary to investigate, if additional historical SRM burns, like the retro-burn of low orbiting re-entry capsules, may be responsible for these dust impacts. The most suitable candidates for these firings are the large number of SRM retro-burns of return capsules. This paper focuses on the SRM retro-burns of Russian photoreconnaissance satellites, which were used in high numbers during the time of the LDEF mission. It is discussed which types of satellites and motors may have been responsible for this historical contribution. Altogether, 870 additional SRM retro-burns have been identified. An important task is the identification of such missions to complete the current event data base. Different types of motors have been used to de-orbit both large satellites and small film return capsules. The results of simulation runs are presented.     

基于计算机的低地球轨道航天器设计与观测的轨道碎片环境模型

文章介绍了一个半经验的基于计算机的轨道碎片模型。该模型将轨道环境简化为6个不同的倾角带,每个倾角带都有各自的半长轴和近地点分布及根据不同的碎片来源有其各自的尺寸分布。用碰撞概率方程将轨道碎片分布与航天器上的碎片通量或通过地面探测器视角的通量联系起来。经比较,碎片的半长轴、近地点和倾角分布与美国空间司令部大于10cm的碎片目录是一致的。对于较小的碎片,这些分布与地面望远镜、“干草堆”雷达的测量结果一致,同时也与LDEF卫星和航天飞机的测量结果一致。     

激光驱动接力移除空间碎片的小卫星星座及可行性研究

在众多空间碎片移除技术中，天基激光烧蚀驱动是一种高效的、有广阔应用前景的移除技术，特别是针对移除海量的、尺寸在1~10 cm的危险碎片而言，更是具有独特优势。然而，这一技术对高能激光器单脉冲能量、光束质量、发射镜口径等要求很高，目前的硬件水平还达不到实用指标要求，制约了其天基应用。为了克服这些硬件技术障碍，本文另辟蹊径，利用小卫星概念，提出了由不同轨道高度小卫星平台组成小卫星星座，通过在每个小卫星平台上的激光驱动接力来逐步降低碎片轨道高度，最终达到移除空间碎片的小卫星接力移除星座的构想。基于现有的激光器性能参数，根据激光烧蚀驱动碎片动力学模型计算了单个卫星平台的移除能力，结果显示，10 J单脉冲能量激光器和0.5 m直径发射镜，能够对20 km范围内、尺寸小于10 cm碎片进行有效驱动。进而，针对空间碎片密集度高而应用最广的800 km轨道高度区域，设计了由分布在不同轨道高度的30颗小卫星组成接力驱动移除星座系统方案，通过仿真模拟计算验证了星座系统的移除碎片的可行性。该研究利用目前热门的小卫星星座，降低了天基激光移除空间碎片技术对硬件的性能要求，为该技术的应用提供了新的思路和途径，所提出的小卫星接力驱动星座系统方案也有工程参考价值。     

Study on electrodynamic tether system for space debris removal

As a countermeasure for suppressing space debris growth (P. Eighler, A. Bade, Chain Reaction of Debris Generation by Collisions in Space—A Final Threat to Spaceflight? in: 40th Congress of the International Astronautical Federation, IAA-89-628, October 1989), the National Aerospace Laboratory of Japan is investigating a satellite capture, repair and removal system for non-cooperative satellites, part of which involves assessing the viability of electrodynamic tether (EDT) technology as an orbital transfer system. In this paper, some results concerning the time required to remove existing satellites, the behavior of flexible tethers during the debris separation phase, and orbital transfer strategies of EDT systems during space debris removal operations are described. From numerical simulations, it is found that EDT systems can transfer satellites from LEO to orbits with a short lifetime within a realistic timeframe. It is also found that the stability of EDT systems is compromised when debris separation occurs both while a tether current is running and when the ratio of the end mass to that of the service satellite is high. To ensure stability, the end mass should be selected from the target debris group with due regard for the maximum possible mass that can be maneuvered safely. Moreover, it is also found that orbital elements (a, e, i) can be changed independently with an adequate current control strategy.     

对欧空局轨道碎片模型的评价

文章评价了颗粒大于1cm的碎片模型,它包含大于10cm的一组粒子和介于1～10cm之间的粒子,它们是由空间暴露模拟得到的。接着讨论了尺寸范围介于0.1～10mm之间的小粒子束流。假定这些粒子主要是由小粒子与卫星碰撞产生的。这种碰撞主要发生在450～500kin的高度范围内(空间站高度),碰撞与否还取决于轨道高度和离心率。