太阳活动、黑潮海温年季变化与长江中游旱涝灾害

本文采用太阳１０．７ｃｍ辐射流量（Ｆ１０．７）作为太阳活动指标，根据最近３０多年的太阳活动、西太平洋黑潮区海温和长江中游干支流地区雨量观测数据，分析了三者之间的关系，研究发现长江中游地区旱涝明显地受太阳活动和黑潮海温年季变化的共同控制．可根据某些特征，利用两年之前的太阳１０．７ｃｍ辐射流量和当年春季之前黑潮海温的观测数据，分析判断长江中游当年夏季是否发生旱涝灾害的趋势．     

太阳活动,黑潮海温年季变化与长江中游旱涝灾害

本文采用太阳１０．７ｃｍ辐射流量（Ｆ１０．７）作为太阳活动指标，根据最近３０多年的太阳活动、西太平洋黑潮区海温和长江中游干支流地区雨量观测数据，分析了三者之间的关系。研究发现长江中游地区旱涝明显地受太阳活动和黑潮海温年季变化的共同控制，可根据某些特征，利用两年之前的太阳１０．７ｃｍ辐射流量和当年春季之前黑潮海温的观测数据，分析判断长江中游当年夏季是否发生旱涝灾害的趋势。     

大气阻力摄动计算方法及误差分析

探索了大气阻力摄动精密计算方法，以提高卫星空间位置的预报精度。根据大气阻力摄动的基本原理，给出两种摄动计算方法，即半分析半数值方法和数值积分方法。选用三种高层大气模型：ＣＩＲＡ－１９８６、ＣＩＲＡ－１９７２和ＤＴＭ模型，分批 太阳活动中高年水平（Ｆ１０．７取为１５０，２００，２５０）和１０％－２０％的模型误差引起卫星空间位置的误差δＰ。结果显示：（１）太阳活动Ｆ１０．７的大小对δＰ的影响明显，在同     

材料红外辐射特性的评价方法

介绍了一种利用光谱发射率的测量结果来评价新型材料和涂料的红外辐射特性的方法。光谱范围为（０．６７￣１００）μｍ，温度变化为从室温到１０００℃，光谱发射率为０．０５０￣０．９９５，测量不确定度为２％。该方法成功地解决了科研生产中的实际问题。     

空间碎片的缓减

１空间碎片的现状□□目前，地面观测到并已登记在册的、在轨道上运行的人造物体共有８６００多个，其中只有大约６％，即５００个左右的物体是正在工作的航天器，其余８０００多个都是尺寸在１ｃｍ以上的空间碎片。至于地面观测不到的空间碎片其数量估计在数十万至数百万...     

W33A的羟基分子脉泽辐射

本文给出了Ｗ３３Ａ在两个跃迁频率上的左右图偏振ＯＨ脉泽辐射谱线，采用细管和球模型，获得脉泽活动区的氢分子数密度近似１０７ｃｍ３．为了获得１０４６ｓ１量级脉泽光子发射率，两种模型一致要求抽运率为１（ＯＨ）ｃｍ３ｓ１，但球型脉泽活动区要求较高的抽运效率．     

国外空间碎片清除计划

当前,近地球轨道上分布的空间碎片达到了前所未有的数量,且呈现加速增长的趋势,若不实施主动清除,碎片的数量将在未来200年内快速增长,给空间系统安全带来巨大的威胁。对空间碎片实施主动清除已成为主要航天国家的共识。1概述据美国空间监视网(SSN)观测(截至2012年7月4日),近地轨道中直径大于10cm的物体共有16399个,其中现役航天器不足1000个,而90%以上为失效或失控的空间碎片,其中质量大于     

第23太阳活动周热层大气密度对太阳辐射指数F10.7响应的模拟研究

利用NCAR-TIEGCM计算了第23太阳活动周期间（1996—2008年）400km高度上的大气密度,并统计分析大气密度对太阳辐射指数FF_10.7的响应.结果表明,在第23太阳活动周内,大气密度的变化趋势与太阳辐射指数FF_10.7的变化趋势基本一致,但是大气密度在不同年份、不同月份对太阳辐射指数FF_10.7的响应存在差异.第23太阳活动周内太阳辐射极大值和极小值之比大于4,而大气密度的极大值与极小值之比则大于10.太阳辐射低年的年内大气密度变化不到2倍,而太阳辐射高年的年内大气密度变化可达2倍甚至3倍.大气密度与FF_10.7指数在北半球高纬的相关系数比南半球高纬的相关系数大.在低纬地区,太阳辐射高年大气密度与FF_10.7指数的相关系数比低年的大.不同纬度上,大气密度与太阳辐射指数FF_10.7的27天变化值之间的相关系数都大于其与81天变化值之间的相关系数.      

21 世纪的宇宙“神探”

→美国“空间干涉望远镜”（ＳＩＭ）拟在２００５年升空。它由分别装在９１５ｍ长的长杠上的７个直径０３０５ｍ的镜面组成，空间分辨率是“哈勃”的１０００倍。其将使天文学家分辨遥远恒星的能力迈上新的台阶。←美国定于２００７年发射“新一代空间望远镜”（ＮＧ...     

针对空间碎片捕获的绕飞轨道设计

地球轨道上日益增长的碎片云已引起各个航天国家的担忧,地球轨道上可编目的空间物体数量30多年内增长了2倍多,若不实施主动清除,碎片的数量将在未来200年内快速增长,给空间系统的安全带来极大的威胁。自然椭圆绕飞轨道可在目标附近长时间绕飞,可保证碎片捕获系统具有长时间的观测、捕获时间。文章提出通过设计绕飞轨道来实现捕获碎片的方案,介绍并分别推导了基于C-W方程和轨道根数两种方式绕飞轨道设计的方法。针对假想的捕获目标,基于轨道根数方法设计了5种脉冲变轨的轨道方案,并进行了相应的轨道算例仿真。仿真结果表明:该方案可适用于任意的初始相位差,具备一定的工程实现意义。     

Space debris mitigation strategies and practices in geosynchronous transfer orbits

Missions to geosynchronous orbits remain one of the most important elements of space launch traffic, accounting for 40% of all missions to Earth orbit and beyond during the four-year period 2000–2003. The vast majority of these missions leave one or more objects in geosynchronous transfer orbits (GTOs), contributing on a short-term or long-term basis to the space debris population. National and international space debris mitigation guidelines seek to curtail the accumulation of debris in orbits which penetrate the regions of low Earth orbit and of geosynchronous orbit. The orbital lifetime of objects in GTO can be greatly influenced by the initial values of perigee, inclination, and right ascension of the orbital plane, leading to orbital lifetimes of from less than one month to more than 100 years. An examination of the characteristic GTOs employed by launch vehicles from around the world has been conducted. The consequences of using perigees above 300 km and super-synchronous apogees, typically above 40,000 km, have been identified. In addition, the differences in orbital behavior of launch vehicle stages and mission-related debris in GTOs have been investigated. Greater coordination and cooperation between space launch service providers and spacecraft designers and owners could significantly improve overall compliance with guidelines to mitigate the accumulation of debris in Earth orbit.     

Instability of the present LEO satellite populations

Several studies conducted during 1991–2001 demonstrated, with some assumed launch rates, the future unintended growth potential of the Earth satellite population, resulting from random, accidental collisions among resident space objects. In some low Earth orbit (LEO) altitude regimes where the number density of satellites is above a critical spatial density, the production rate of new breakup debris due to collisions would exceed the loss of objects due to orbital decay.     

Physical properties and long-term evolution of the debris clouds produced by two catastrophic collisions in Earth orbit

The population of cataloged orbital debris increased by approximately 40% in just a couple of years, from January 2007 to February 2009. This was due to two collisions in space, which involved the catastrophic destruction of three intact satellites (Fengyun 1C, Cosmos 2251 and Iridium 33) in high inclination orbits. Both events occurred in the altitude range already most affected by previous launch activity and breakup events, thus boosting the cataloged population in low Earth orbit by more than 60%.     

Perspective on space radiation for space flights in 2020–2040

The Sun undergoes several well known periodicities in activity, such as the Schwabe 11 year cycle, the Gleissberg 80–90 year cycle, the Suess 200–210 year cycle and the Halstatt 2200–2300 year cycle. In addition, there is evidence that the 20th century levels of solar activity are unusually high. The years 2020–2040 are expected to coincide with increased activity in human space flight beyond low Earth orbit. The solar cycles and the present level of solar activity are reviewed and their activities during the years 2020–2040 are discussed with a perspective on space radiation and the future program of space flight. It is prudent to prepare for continuing levels of high solar activity as well as for the low levels of the current deep minimum, which has corresponded to high galactic cosmic ray flux.     

空间站轨道高度选择

有许多因素影响空间站轨道高度的选择,包括:任务要求,辐射环境,微流星和空间垃圾,空间站构型,运载器能力,发射窗口以及空间站的补给要求等。从补给运输系统性能考虑,要求空间站的轨道高度低一些,但是从轨道维持出发,希望空间站轨道高度高一些。该文讨论了补给、轨道维持和太阳活动对轨道高度的影响,给出了空间站的最佳运行高度。文中还以载人飞船和航天飞机为运输系统进行了数值计算,得到的主要结论是空间站的最佳运行高度不是常数,而是随着太阳活动情况和补给频繁次数变化。在太阳活动高年期间,空间站轨道高度应提高。当空间站的补给次数增加时,空间站的最佳运行高度应该下降。     

Debris flux comparisons from the Goldstone Radar,Haystack Radar,and Hax Radar prior,during, and after the last solar maximum

The continual monitoring of the low Earth orbit (LEO) debris environment using highly sensitive radars is essential for an accurate characterization of these dynamic populations. Debris populations are continually evolving since there are new debris sources, previously unrecognized debris sources, and debris loss mechanisms that are dependent on the dynamic space environment. Such radar data are used to supplement, update, and validate existing orbital debris models. NASA has been utilizing radar observations of the debris environment for over a decade from three complementary radars: the NASA JPL Goldstone radar, the MIT Lincoln Laboratory (MIT/LL) Long Range Imaging Radar (known as the Haystack radar), and the MIT/LL Haystack Auxiliary radar (HAX). All of these systems are highly sensitive radars that operate in a fixed staring mode to statistically sample orbital debris in the LEO environment. Each of these radars is ideally suited to measure debris within a specific size region. The Goldstone radar generally observes objects with sizes from 2 mm to 1 cm. The Haystack radar generally measures from 5 mm to several meters. The HAX radar generally measures from 2 cm to several meters. These overlapping size regions allow a continuous measurement of cumulative debris flux versus diameter from 2 mm to several meters for a given altitude window. This is demonstrated for all three radars by comparing the debris flux versus diameter over 200 km altitude windows for 3 nonconsecutive years from 1998 to 2003. These years correspond to periods before, during, and after the peak of the last solar cycle. Comparing the year to year flux from Haystack for each of these altitude regions indicate statistically significant changes in subsets of the debris populations. Potential causes of these changes are discussed. These analysis results include error bars that represent statistical sampling errors.     

利用质子强度变化对太阳质子事件进行短期预报方法初步研究

采用GOSE-10卫星4～9 MeV(P2),9～15 MeV(P3),15～40 MeV(P4),40～80 MeV(P5)能段上的质子通量数据,结合质子能谱,对太阳质子事件发生前各能谱参数的变化特征进行分析,详细介绍利用能谱参数的变化特征及能量E>10 MeV的质子通量数据对太阳质子事件进行预报的新方法,并运用这种方法对2002-2006年期间太阳质子事件进行了预报.预报结果显示,预报提前量最多达到100 h以上,对质子事件的报准率达97.5%,预报方法具备一定的有效性和实用性.      

Hypervelocity impacts on HST solar arrays and the debris and meteoroids population

Accurate debris and meteoroid flux models are crucial for the design of manned and unmanned space missions. For the most abundant particle sizes smaller than a few millimetres, knowledge of the populations can only be gained from in situ detectors or the analysis of retrieved space hardware. The measurement of impact flux from exposed surfaces improves with increased surface area and exposure time.A post-flight impact investigation was initiated by the European Space Agency to record and analyse the impact fluxes and any potential resulting damage on the two flexible solar arrays of the Hubble Space Telescope. The arrays were deployed during the first Hubble Space Telescope servicing mission in December 1993 and retrieved in March 2002. They have a total exposed surface area of roughly 120 m², including 42 m² covered with solar cells. This new Hubble post-flight impact study follows a similar activity undertaken after the retrieval of one of the first solar arrays, in 1993. The earlier study provided the first opportunity for a numerical survey of damage to exposed surfaces from more than 600 km altitude, and of impacts from particles larger than 1 mm. The results have proven very valuable in validation of important flux model regimes. The second set of Hubble solar arrays has again provided an unrivalled opportunity to measure the meteoroid and debris environment, now sampled during a long interval in low Earth orbit, and to identify changes in the space debris environment since the previous survey. The retrieved solar array wings exhibit thousands of craters, many of which are visible to the naked eye. A few hundred impacts have completely penetrated the 0.7 mm thick array. The largest impact features are about 7–8 mm in diameter. The cover glass of the solar cells is particularly well suited to the recognition of small impact features by optical and electron microscopy. In this paper, we present the first results of the impact survey. Data upon the abundance of craters of specific measured size ranges are plotted as cumulative flux curves, and compared to the results of model predictions. The most significant change to the particle flux since 1993 is a decrease in the small debris population.     

Galactic cosmic ray flux simulation and prediction.

A dynamic galactic cosmic ray model is proposed to quantitatively describe the z=1-28 ions and electrons of E=10-10(5) MeV/nucleon and their particle flux variations around the Earth's orbit and beyond the Earth's magnetosphere due to diverse large-scale variations of solar activity factors. The variations of large-scale heliospheric magnetic fields and the galactic cosmic ray flux variation time delays relative to solar activity variations are simulated. The lag characteristics and sunspot number predictions having been determined in detail, the model can be used to predict galactic cosmic ray flux levels.     

Removing orbital debris with lasers

Orbital debris in low Earth orbit (LEO) are now sufficiently dense that the use of LEO space is threatened by runaway collision cascading. A problem predicted more than thirty years ago, the threat from debris larger than about 1 cm demands serious attention. A promising proposed solution uses a high power pulsed laser system on the Earth to make plasma jets on the objects, slowing them slightly, and causing them to re-enter and burn up in the atmosphere. In this paper, we reassess this approach in light of recent advances in low-cost, light-weight modular design for large mirrors, calculations of laser-induced orbit changes and in design of repetitive, multi-kilojoules lasers, that build on inertial fusion research. These advances now suggest that laser orbital debris removal (LODR) is the most cost-effective way to mitigate the debris problem. No other solutions have been proposed that address the whole problem of large and small debris. A LODR system will have multiple uses beyond debris removal. International cooperation will be essential for building and operating such a system.