太阳活动、黑潮海温年季变化与长江中游旱涝灾害

本文采用太阳１０．７ｃｍ辐射流量（Ｆ１０．７）作为太阳活动指标，根据最近３０多年的太阳活动、西太平洋黑潮区海温和长江中游干支流地区雨量观测数据，分析了三者之间的关系，研究发现长江中游地区旱涝明显地受太阳活动和黑潮海温年季变化的共同控制．可根据某些特征，利用两年之前的太阳１０．７ｃｍ辐射流量和当年春季之前黑潮海温的观测数据，分析判断长江中游当年夏季是否发生旱涝灾害的趋势．

SOLAR ACTIVITY,SEA TEMPERATURE IN THE KUROSHIO REGION AND THE FLOOD AND DROUGHT IN THE MIDDLE REACH OF THE YANGTZE RIVER

The relationship among solar activity,the sea temperature in the Kuroshio region and the flood and drought in the Middle Reach of the Yangtze River (MRYR)is investigated by using 30 years'data of solar activity,the sea temperature in the Kuroshio region and the rainfall in the MRYR. Results show that the rainfall in the MRYR is obviously controlled by the interannual and seasonal variations of solar activity and the sea temperature in the Kuroshio region.The solar 10.7cm radiation flux is taken as the index of solar activity and the interannual fluctuation curve of the difference of F10.7 between winter and summer oscillates with a period of about 11 years.The flood years(or drought years)frequently occurred when the positive part (or negative part and odd point) of the curve appeared 3 years ago and the last year lay in the peak (or valley,or near zero point)of the seasonal variation curve of the sea temperature in the Kuroshio region.According to these features, the solar activity data in the previous two years and the sea temperature data in the Kuroshio region before this spring can be used to analyze the trend of flood or drought in the MRYR in the coming summer.