Large geomagnetic storms of extreme solar event periods in solar cycle 23

During extreme solar events such as big flares or/and energetic coronal mass ejections (CMEs) high energy particles are accelerated by the shocks formed in front of fast interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). The ICMEs (and their sheaths) also give rise to large geomagnetic storms which have significant effects on the Earth’s environment and human life. Around 14 solar cosmic ray ground level enhancement (GLE) events in solar cycle 23 we examined the cosmic ray variation, solar wind speed, ions density, interplanetary magnetic field, and geomagnetic disturbance storm time index (D_st). We found that all but one of GLEs are always followed by a geomagnetic storm with D_st  −50 nT within 1–5 days later. Most(10/14) geomagnetic storms have D_st index  −100  nT therefore generally belong to strong geomagnetic storms. This suggests that GLE event prediction of geomagnetic storms is 93% for moderate storms and 71% for large storms when geomagnetic storms preceded by GLEs. All D_st depressions are associated with cosmic ray decreases which occur nearly simultaneously with geomagnetic storms. We also investigated the interplanetary plasma features. Most geomagnetic storm correspond significant periods of southward B_z and in close to 80% of the cases that the B_z was first northward then turning southward after storm sudden commencement (SSC). Plasma flow speed, ion number density and interplanetary plasma temperature near 1 AU also have a peak at interplanetary shock arrival. Solar cause and energetic particle signatures of large geomagnetic storms and a possible prediction scheme are discussed.     

Gnevyshev gap, Forbush decreases, ICMEs and solar wind electric field: relationships

We have studied annual frequency distribution of the Forbush decreases for three solar cycles (20, 21, 22); most are associated with the fast ICMEs and SSCs. The frequency varies in step with the solar cycle but the distribution has a notable gap embedded in it, near the maximum of the cycle leading to two peaks in Forbush decreases per cycle. We show that the gap coincides with the epoch of solar polar field reversal. There is an indication of an odd/even cycle effect in the frequency distribution of Forbush decreases and the associated SSCs. We find that two peaks in Forbush decrease and SSC distributions are separated by the Gnevyshev gap; second peaks occur well before the onset of the high-speed streams in the descending phase of a cycle which do not cause Forbush decreases but do contribute to a peak in the geomagnetic activity index Ap. We compare Forbush decrease and SSC distributions with the corresponding distribution of the solar wind electric field and find that a large amplitude of the electric field of itself does not cause a Forbush decrease to occur unless it is also associated with a fast ICME/SSC.     

The regional peculiarities of the total ozone content variations caused by solar/geomagnetic phenomena

The ozone variations possibly caused by solar electromagnetic radiation, geomagnetic storms and solar particle events depend on the latitude and longitude. The results of the statistical analysis on the base of TOMS total ozone content (TOC) measurements are compared for the regions with the same geographical or geomagnetic latitude but with different stratospheric and/or tropospheric dynamics. The atmospheric circulation could be the intermediate link of a chain of solar/geomagnetic influence on the TOC.     

Cosmic ray variations of solar origin in relation to human physiological state during the December 2006 solar extreme events

There is an increasing amount of evidence linking biological effects to solar and geomagnetic disturbances. A series of studies is published referring to the changes in human physiological responses at different levels of geomagnetic activity. In this study, the possible relation between the daily variations of cosmic ray intensity, measured by the Neutron Monitor at the Cosmic Ray Station of the University of Athens (http://cosray.phys.uoa.gr) and the average daily and hourly heart rate variations of persons, with no symptoms or hospital admission, monitored by Holter electrocardiogram, is considered. This work refers to a group of persons admitted to the cardiological clinic of the KAT Hospital in Athens during the time period from 4th to 24th December 2006 that is characterized by extreme solar and geomagnetic activity. A series of Forbush decreases started on 6th December and lasted until the end of the month and a great solar proton event causing a Ground Level Enhancement (GLE) of the cosmic ray intensity on 13th December occurred. A sudden decrease of the cosmic ray intensity on 15th December, when a geomagnetic storm was registered, was also recorded in Athens Neutron Monitor station (cut-off rigidity 8.53 GV) with amplitude of 4%. It is noticed that during geomagnetically quiet days the heart rate and the cosmic ray intensity variations are positively correlated. When intense cosmic ray variations, like Forbush decreases and relativistic proton events produced by strong solar phenomena occur, cosmic ray intensity and heart rate get minimum values and their variations, also, coincide. During these events the correlation coefficient of these two parameters changes and follows the behavior of the cosmic ray intensity variations. This is only a small part of an extended investigation, which has begun using data from the year 2002 and is still in progress.     

Statistical analysis of the occurrence rate of geomagnetic storms during solar cycles 20–24

This study examines the occurrences rate of geomagnetic storms during the solar cycles (SCs) 20–24. It also investigates the solar sources at SCs 23 and 24. The Disturbed storm time (Dst) and Sunspot Number (SSN) data were used in the study. The study establishes that the magnitude of the rate of occurrences of geomagnetic storms is higher (lower) at the descending phases (minimum phases) of solar cycle. It as well reveals that severe and extreme geomagnetic storms (Dst < -250 nT) seldom occur at low solar activity but at very high solar activity and are mostly associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs) when occurred. Storms caused by CME + CH-HSSW are more prominent during the descending phase than any other phase of the solar cycle. Solar minimum features more CH-HSSW- associated storms than any other phase. It was also revealed that all high intensity geomagnetic storms (strong, severe and extreme) are mostly associated with CMEs. However, CH-HSSW can occasionally generate strong storms during solar minimum. The results have proven that CMEs are the leading cause of geomagnetic storms at the ascending, maximum and the descending phases of the cycles 23 and 24 followed by CME + CH-HSSW. The results from this study indicate that the rate of occurrence of geomagnetic storms could be predicted in SC phases.     

Morphology of the G condition occurrence over Irkutsk

Using Irkutsk digisonde data obtained in 2003–2011, a morphological analysis of the G condition occurrence has been made. The G condition was found to occur during daylight hours in summer; in winter, it is extremely rare, and its appearance is associated with intense magnetic storms. In the years of moderate solar activity, the G condition is most frequently registered at Kp ? 4, in the forenoon. During low solar activity, it can be observed under quiet geomagnetic conditions; in most cases, local time of its appearance shifts to afternoon hours. The highest percentage of the G condition occurrence (7.7–6.4%) was recorded in June and July 2008 when the levels of solar and geomagnetic activity were abnormally low.     

Study of TEC changes during geomagnetic storms occurred near the crest of the equatorial ionospheric ionization anomaly in the Indian sector

GPS satellites data obtained at Bhopal (23.16° N, 77.36° E, geomagnetic latitude 14.23° N) India were analyzed to study the TEC changes during several geomagnetic storms (−300 nT < Dst < −50 nT) occurred in 2005–2007. We had segregated the storms according to the Dst value, i.e. moderate storms (−100 nT < Dst ? −50 nT), strong storms (−150 nT < Dst < −100 nT), and severe storms (Dst less than −150 nT). Total of 21 geomagnetic storms (10 moderate, 9 strong, 2 severe) are considered for the present study. Deviation in vertical total electron content (VTEC) during the main phase of the storm was found to be associated with the prompt penetration of electric field originated due to the under-shielding and over-shielding conditions for almost all geomagnetic storms discussed in this paper. For most of the storms VTEC shows the positive percentage deviation during the main phase while it shows positive as well as the negative deviation during the recovery phase of the storms. The −80% deviation in VTEC was found for geomagnetic storm occurred on July 17, 2005 and the negative trend continued for recovery phase of the storm. This was mainly due to the thermospheric composition changes by Joule heating effect at auroral latitudes that generate electric field disturbance at low latitudes. Traveling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs) were responsible for the formation of wave like nature in VTEC for the storms occurred on May 15, 2005, whereas it was not observed for storm occurred on August 24, 2005.     

Geomagnetic storm effects on the earth''s ozone layer

The study of the response of the terrestrial environment to the different forms of solar activity is a relevant task. Geomagnetic perturbations arise from the solar wind/magnetospheric coupling and major magnetic storms are caused by intense, long duration Southward interplanetary magnetic fields. This paper addresses reader's attention on possible effects induced by geomagnetic storms on the Earth's ozone layer by reporting a series of experimental results related to the topic. Difficulties connected with a right assessment of such kind of effects are described.     

Contribution of solar UV radiation to the observed ozone variations during the 21st and 22nd solar cycles

A two-dimensional dynamical radiative-photochemical model of the ozonosphere including aerosol physics is used to examine the changes of the Earth's ozone layer occurred during the 21st and 22nd solar cycles. The calculated global total ozone changes in the latitude range 60°S—60°N caused by 11-year variation of solar UV radiation, volcanic eruptions, and anthropogenic atmospheric pollution containing CO₂, CH₄, N₂O and chlorine and bromine species are in a rather good agreement with the observed global ozone trend. The calculations show that the anthropogenic pollution of the atmosphere is a main reason of the ozone depletion observed during the last two solar cycles. However, the 11-year solar UV variation as well as volcanic eruptions of El Chichon and Mt. Pinatubo also gave a significant contribution to the observed global ozone changes.     

Peculiarities of the nighttime winter foF2 increase over Irkutsk

An analysis of properties and peculiarities of the nighttime winter foF2 increases (NWI) in the East Siberia is made on data of ionospheric station Irkutsk in the periods 1958–1992 and 2002–2009 and the empirical model of the F2 layer critical frequency under the geomagnetic quiet conditions deduced from these data (model Q-F2). It is revealed, that the NWI is the stable regularity of the quiet ionosphere over Irkutsk. The amplitude of the NWI (the difference between maximum and minimum foF2 values at night hours) is the greatest in December–January and nearly the same at low and middle solar activity. It is a peculiarity of the quiet ionosphere in the East Siberia. Maximum in night foF2 under quiet geomagnetic conditions is observed mainly after midnight (02-04 LT) and is shifted to predawn hours as solar activity increases. At low solar activity the quiet ionosphere at ∼02–04 LT shows the following properties: (a) the fluctuations of foF2 and hmF2 are in the reverse correlation but this dependence is weak; (b) very strong fluctuations of foF2 (|δfoF2| > 30%) occur seldom (∼4% of events) and almost all of them are positive; an example of very strong fluctuations of foF2 up to 60% can be an extreme increase in the foF2 on 19.12.2008; (c) the very strong enhancements of foF2 in the NWI maximum can be observed at the low geomagnetic activity, they occur more often during substorms but very seldom during geomagnetic storms. Possible reasons of these properties of NWI are discussed.     

Geomagnetic activity and solar cycles

Multiple linear regression method is used to estimate the total number of geomagnetic storms per solar cycle and to predict cycle 23’s maximum amplitude. A recurrence trend of 7 and 12 cycles are used as lagged values to estimate the amplitude of the current cycle, which resulted to be equal to 137 (±65) smoothed monthly mean sunspots.     

磁暴数统计特性研究

Dst是一个表征磁暴强度的空间天气指数. 通过统计1957-2008年 发生的中等磁暴(-100<Dst≤ -50nT)和强磁暴(Dst ≤ -100nT)在太阳活动周上升年、极大年、下降年和极小年的时间分布情 况, 分析其随季节变化的统计特性, 进而讨论了引起磁暴的原因. 结果表明, 对于同一太阳活动周, 极大年地磁暴发生次数远大于极小年地磁暴的发生次数, 这与太阳黑子数的变化趋势是一致的; 通常太阳活动周强磁暴出现双峰结构, 而第23周中等磁暴出现双峰结构, 强磁暴则出现三峰结构, 这可能与1999 年强 磁暴发生次数异常少, 使1998年凸显出来的现象有关; 磁暴主要发生在分季, 随着Dst指数的增加, 磁暴发生次数明显增加.      

宇宙线强度变化与磁扰K类型

本文把1966—1983年期间发生的679个地磁暴进行了分类,利用统计方法分析了各类磁暴发生前后宇宙线强度的变化特征.突发急始脉冲发生后,宇宙线强度没有出现显著的变化;缓始型暴发生后,宇宙线强度出现Forbush下降,但下降幅度很小;急始型暴发生后,宇宙线强度出现十分明显的Forbush下降.当把急始型暴按K指数大小和持续时间分为5种类型,发现它们伴随的宇宙线Forbush下降是不一样的,其下降幅度随磁暴的增强而加大,下降的速率随磁暴的增强而加快,扰动的持续时间随磁暴的减弱而增加.      

Time delay of ionospheric TEC storms to geomagnetic storms and pre-storm disturbance events in East Asia

Using the TEC data at Beijing (39.61°N, 115.89°E)/Yakutsk (62.03°N, 129.68°E) stations of East Asia regions and relevant geomagnetic data from 2010 to 2017, we have studied the time delay of ionospheric storms to geomagnetic storms and compare it with our previous results of Taoyuan (25.02°N, 121.21°E) station (Zhang et al., 2020). The data shows a well-known local time dependence of the time delay, and seasonal dependences are different at these stations. In addition, there is no correlation between the time delay and the magnetic storm intensity /solar activity, except the time delay of negative storms has weakly negative dependence on the solar activity. Comparing with the results of Taoyuan station which is located at EIA region in East Asia, we find that the time delay increases nonlinearly as the latitude decreases due to different ionospheric backgrounds at these places. Moreover, the pre-storm disturbance events are found to have similar statistical characteristics as the pre-storm enhancement in Europe middle latitudes (Bure?ová and La?tovi?ka, 2007). By subtracting the common features of the pre-storm disturbance events, we preliminarily infer that auroral activity might be main driver of the pre-storm disturbance events.     

Solar and interplanetary precursors of geomagnetic storms in solar cycle 23

Estimating the magnetic storm effectiveness of solar and associated interplanetary phenomena is of practical importance for space weather modelling and prediction. This article presents results of a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the probable causes of geomagnetic storms during the 11-year period of solar cycle 23: 1996–2006. Potential solar causes of 229 magnetic storms (Dst ? −50 nT) were investigated with a particular focus on halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs). A 5-day time window prior to the storm onset was considered to track backward the Sun’s eruptions of halo CMEs using the SOHO/LASCO CMEs catalogue list. Solar and interplanetary (IP) properties associated with halo CMEs were investigated and correlated to the resulting geomagnetic storms (GMS). In addition, a comparative analysis between full and partial halo CME-driven storms is established. The results obtained show that about 83% of intense storms (Dst ? −100 nT) were associated with halo CMEs. For moderate storms (−100 nT < Dst ? −50 nT), only 54% had halo CME background, while the remaining 46% were assumed to be associated with corotating interaction regions (CIRs) or undetected frontside CMEs. It was observed in this study that intense storms were mostly associated with full halo CMEs, while partial halo CMEs were generally followed by moderate storms. This analysis indicates that up to 86% of intense storms were associated with interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) at 1 AU, as compared to moderate storms with only 44% of ICME association. Many other quantitative results are presented in this paper, providing an estimate of solar and IP precursor properties of GMS within an average 11-year solar activity cycle. The results of this study constitute a key step towards improving space weather modelling and prediction.     

Effect of severe geomagnetic storm conditions on atomic oxygen greenline dayglow emission in mesosphere

Severe geomagnetic storms and their effects on the 557.7 nm dayglow emission are studied in mesosphere. This study is primarily based on photochemical model with the necessary input obtained from a combination of experimental observations and empirical models. The model results are presented for a low latitude station Tirunelveli (8.7°N, 77.8°E). The volume emission rates are calculated using MSISE-90 and NRLMSISE-00 neutral atmospheric models. A comparison is made between the results obtained from these two models. A positive correlation amongst volume emission rate (VER), O, O₂ number densities and Dst index has been found. The present results indicate that the variation in emission rate is more for MSISE-90 than in NRLMSISE-00 model. The maximum depletion in the VER of greenline dayglow emission is found to be about 30% at 96 km during the main phase of the one of the geomagnetic storms investigated in the case of MSISE-90 (which is strongest with Dst index −216 nT). The O₂ density decreases about 22% at 96 km during the main phase of the same geomagnetic storm.The NRLSMSISE-00 model does not show any appreciable change in the number density of O during any of the two events. The present study also shows that the altitude of peak emission rate is unaffected by the geomagnetic storms. The effect of geomagnetic storm on the greenline nightglow emission has also been studied. It is found that almost no correlation can be established between the Dst index and variations in the volume emission rates using the NRLMSISE-00 neutral model atmosphere. However, a positive correlation is found in the case of MSISE-90 and the maximum depletion in the case of nightglow is about 40% for one of the storms. The present study shows that there are significant differences between the results obtained using MSISE-90 and NRLMSISE-00.     

冕洞特征参数与地磁暴强度及发生时间统计

地磁暴是空间天气预报的重要对象.在太阳活动周下降年和低年，冕洞发出的高速流经过三天左右行星际传输到达地球并引发的地磁暴占主导地位.目前地磁暴的预报通常依赖于1AU处卫星就位监测的太阳风参数，预报提前量只有1h左右.为了增加地磁暴预报提前量，需要从高速流和地磁暴的源头即太阳出发，建立冕洞特征参数与地磁暴的定量关系.分析了2010年5月到2016年12月的152个冕洞-地磁暴事件，利用SDO/AIA太阳极紫外图像提取了两类冕洞特征参数，分析了其与地磁暴期间ap，Dst和AE三种地磁指数的统计关系，给出冕洞特征参数与地磁暴强度以及发生时间的统计特征，为基于冕洞成像观测提前1～3天预报地磁暴提供了依据.      

Statistical analyses of influence of solar and geomagnetic activities on car accident events.

Statistical analyses of the influence of Solar and geomagnetic activity, sector structure of the interplanetary magnetic field and galactic cosmic ray Forbush effects on car accident events in Poland for the period of 1990-1999 have been carried out. Using auto-correlation, cross-correlation, spectral analyses and superposition epochs methods it has been shown that there are separate periods when car accident events have direct correlation with Ap index of the geomagnetic activity, sector structure of the interplanetary magnetic field and Forbush decreases of galactic cosmic rays. Nevertheless, the single-valued direct correlation is not possible to reveal for the whole period of 1990-1999. Periodicity of 7 days and its second harmonic (3.5 days) has been reliably revealed in the car accident events data in Poland for the each year of the period 1990-1999. It is shown that the maximum car accident events take place in Poland on Friday and practically does not depend on the level of solar and geomagnetic activities.     

Research by the Tasmanian cosmic ray group during the International Geophysical Year

Systematic recording of the cosmic radiation commenced in Hobart in 1946 and at Mawson in Antarctica in 1955, making these two of the longest running cosmic ray observatories in the world. For the IGY, observations were also made at a sub-Antarctic island and near the equator, and an airborne survey of the nucleonic component was made from Geomagnetic Latitude −60°, south of Australia, to Japan and back. At Hobart there were neutron monitors, vertical and inclined muon telescopes, an ionization chamber, and two muon telescopes at ∼40 m of water equivalent underground. The research based on these and other observations determined the energy dependence of the Forbush and 11-year variations and concentrated, in particular, on understanding the anisotropic nature of galactic cosmic rays up to 150 GeV; the anisotropies in the onset phase of Forbush decreases; and the anisotropies in solar cosmic ray events. An investigation was initiated to calculate the trajectories and cutoff rigidities of cosmic rays in a high order simulation of the geomagnetic field. This was completed in 1959–60.     

电离层暴时经验模型STORM在中国区域的适应性研究

利用中国区域内9个垂测站1976---1987年一个太阳活动周期的电离层暴时f0F2数据, 统计分析了电离层暴事件的等级, 以及不同等级的电离层暴随季节和地磁纬度的分布特征. 研究发现, 中小型电离层暴在春秋季发生的概率较大, 不同季节的发生次数与地磁纬度具有明显的关系. 利用STORM模型对电离层暴时f0F2和大型及特大型电离层暴时f0F2的预测值与月中值进行了比较. 结果表明, 除了冬季误差增大外, 发生电离层暴时STORM模型能够有效地改善月中值模型. 增加中国的暴时数据, 并提高对冬季的暴时参数f0F2的预测是改善STORM模型的重要因素. 建立合适的暴时指数来预测f0F2是未来研究的重点.