The ESA and US reports on space debris : Platform for future policy initiatives

This article examines the development of policy on space debris in the European Space Agency and the USA, comments on its regulatory effectiveness, and proposes further recommendations for consideration when developing future space debris policy. The author argues that the international community must work towards a policy which incorporates an environmental perspective, and discusses the principles which should inform such a perspective.     

The tortoise and the tortoise : The new race for space

Until now space activity has been driven by international political competition. But recent events in Eastern Europe have undercut the political incentives for expanded space activity, and meanwhile fiscal constraints, arising for different reasons in the USA, Europe and the USSR, are putting unprecedented pressure on space budgets. In the long term, however, it is likely that a new kind of competition fuelled by economic motives will provide the basis for a more determined and perhaps more stable opening of the space frontier. Dropping out of the space race for short-term reasons could be a costly and irrevocable decision.     

A new setting for international space cooperation?

The year 2004 could be seen as the turning point for the realignment of international space cooperation for the 21st century. At the very core of this readjustment, the US space exploration initiative strives to define a new scheme for such a broad array of aspects as international scientific cooperation, the role of the space industry and the organizational framework for international space applications. This paper argues that the success of this new outline of international space cooperation depends on several conditions. First, the US initiative needs to demonstrate its long-term continuity and reliability for international partners, which will depend to no small degree on the future of the ISS and its utilization for international research. Second, international cooperation between industrial partners will continue to need political frameworks and depend on a balanced handling of know-how partnerships. Third, cooperation in space applications will need a truly international structure to further its global acceptance and outreach.     

The USA and international competition in space transportation

This article discusses the crisis facing the USA in the formulation of its space transportation policy, within the context of its overall national space policy. The author examines developments in international space transportation from 1982 to 1992, and the failure of US policies to meet foreign commercial competition in space launches. Two goals have emerged from the US policy debate: to achieve assured access to space, and to reduce the costs of sending payloads to orbit. Both goals need to be faced within the context of a wider commitment by government and private industry to space investment.     

The USSR's prudent space policy

Soviet space policy has long been viewed in the West as militaristic and aimed at achieving superiority, a situation which is abetted by the secrecy in which Soviet space activities are shrouded. This article argues, however, that Soviet space policy is essentially prudent and conservative, and based on exploiting existing technology to the maximum. Whilst it has provided the USSR with an impressive space potential, it does not mean that the USSR is ahead of the USA in space. Nevertheless, in the future the USSR is likely to undertake more international cooperation and offer commercial launch services.     

Developing new launch vehicle technology: The case for multi-national private sector cooperation

Space is now a global business, yet the cost of getting to space is still high. Developing new launch vehicles that are cheaper, safer, and more reliable is the key to both rapid commercial growth and to more and better government uses of space. However, the R&D process leading to new launch vehicles is expensive and technically challenging; the past 50 years have seen many government development programs, but no major technological breakthroughs. Perhaps, it is therefore time to think about other ways of developing new launch vehicles. The best expertise in this field resides primarily with private companies and is spread across many actors and nations. A consortium led by space firms might be a better approach to opening up space in the 21st century. Governments will have to develop new policies treating space as though it were a commercial industry, in particular, relaxing export trade restrictions wherever possible. Issues of dual-use may be outweighed by the rapidly growing widespread availability of launch capabilities. Since new launch vehicles will require large up-front R&D expenditures, government support will continue to be needed to supplement private capital funds. Contributions to this effort should be international. However, difficult it might be in today's security conscious environment to reorient government policy, doing so may offer the most efficient and successful way to break the technological and economic barriers to more reliable access to space.     

A forward looking space policy for the USA

The 1958 Space Act created separate but related military and civilian space exploration and exploitation efforts for the USA. This Viewpoint reexamines the assumptions of the act, and questions how they might be modified to fit with technical and political developments since 1958. Should separate civilian and military programmes continue? How should launch vehicles be developed and operated? What should be the major goals of the space exploration programmes? A well defined and forward looking space policy is proposed, including a lunar base programme, which will take the initiative away from the USSR.     

US export controls and Canadian autonomy to collaborate on international space missions

Canada is a space power with unique technical niches that support opportunities for collaboration on space technologies. When U.S.-origin space technologies are involved Canada's ability to collaborate internationally may be conditional on US law and policy. As a result, US export control law can be directly linked to the success or failure of Canadian collaboration. This article examines the strategic impact of U.S. export controls on Canadian autonomy to collaborate on international missions, including multi-use missions. Canadian space export control policy is also examined more broadly with the goal of providing specific policy recommendations that will enhance Canada's future as an international space actor.     

United States space policy and international partnership

Has the current US space policy improved the USA's overall strategic position? Does it affect favorably international partnerships? These questions are examined in terms of security, political economy, and influence. In today's context, where there are more space players, more options, more potential for unintended consequences, and higher stakes, unilateral action is more limited in its effectiveness than in earlier times. Surveying current US space policy, it is not clear that data-driven, analytically based decisions are being made to affect positively national independence, innovation, market creation, and international perceptions of the USA as a trustworthy partner. More promising are the steps taken to bolster a predictable space operational environment and economic competitiveness. Ultimately, in order to achieve American excellence and leadership, a ‘closed loop’ on the policy system is needed, to gauge regularly and systematically whether the US is achieving the desired national outcomes.     

The next giant leap in space

Over the past year, the United Nations Association of the USA (UNA) has conducted a massive programme aimed at involving US citizens directly in shaping US space policy. From early January to mid-May of 1986, thousands of people joined forces in some 90 cities and towns across the USA to examine the prospects for international cooperation and the impact of existing and potential military space activities on civilian cooperation.     

A new paradigm for international cooperation in space exploration

In announcing a new Vision for the US space program, President George Bush committed the USA to “a long-term human and robotic program to explore the solar system”, via a return to the Moon, leading to exploration of Mars and other destinations. He also stated that other nations would be invited to join the vision. Many other nations have, or are developing, ‘exploration visions’ of their own. The potential for international cooperation therefore exists, both at the vision and program/project levels. This paper, based on Working Group discussions as part of an AIAA space cooperation workshop,¹ presents an approach for maximizing the return on all global investments in space exploration. It proposes an international coordination mechanism through which all these various national activities could be integrated into an inherently global enterprise for space exploration, a ‘virtual program of programs’. Within the context of the coordination, individual activities would utilize the full range of cooperative mechanisms for implementation. A significant benefit of this mode of conducting cooperation is that it would not require the negotiation of complex overarching international agreements as a precondition for initiating international activity.     

The space elevator in the context of current space exploration policy

The space elevator is an advanced space transportation system that someday could replace chemical rockets as humanity's primary means of reaching Earth's orbit. However, before this can occur, a number of enabling technologies will need to be developed, and a variety of economic and policy questions must be addressed. The goal of this paper is to examine the feasibility of the space elevator in the context of current space exploration policy. The paper reviews the space elevator's critical enabling technologies and presents their wide variety of applications. The challenges of funding the space elevator and of building support for the program are discussed. The potential for international cooperation is considered, and the role of the space elevator in the Vision for Space Exploration is examined. The paper argues that each of the space elevator's component technologies ought to be developed independently to meet separate nearer-term objectives. The space elevator should be just one of many applications considered in making decisions to pursue research and development related to each component technology. The enabling technologies, once mature, might eventually be integrated in the construction of a full-scale space elevator from the Earth's surface to geosynchronous orbit and beyond.     

Asia in space: The awakening of China and Japan

The increasingly important role of China and Japan in international space activities can be seen as a threat to the two great space-exporting powers, the USA and Europe. China is already a competitor on the satellite launch market, and will soon be able to market satellites which are simpler and cheaper than those offered by Western industry. Japan is making steady progress towards autonomy in all fields of space technology. This article details the space experience of China and Japan. They are following different paths but both will have a strong presence in the cosmos by the year 2000.     

Overview of the legal and policy challenges of orbital debris removal

Much attention has been paid recently to the issue of removing human-generated space debris from Earth orbit, especially following conclusions reached by both NASA and ESA that mitigating debris is not sufficient, that debris-on-debris and debris-on-active-satellite collisions will continue to generate new debris even without additional launches, and that some sort of active debris removal (ADR) is needed. Several techniques for ADR are technically plausible enough to merit further research and eventually operational testing. However, all ADR technologies present significant legal and policy challenges which will need to be addressed for debris removal to become viable. This paper summarizes the most promising techniques for removing space debris in both LEO and GEO, including electrodynamic tethers and ground- and space-based lasers. It then discusses several of the legal and policy challenges posed, including: lack of separate legal definitions for functional operational spacecraft and non-functional space debris; lack of international consensus on which types of space debris objects should be removed; sovereignty issues related to who is legally authorized to remove pieces of space debris; the need for transparency and confidence-building measures to reduce misperceptions of ADR as anti-satellite weapons; and intellectual property rights and liability with regard to ADR operations. Significant work on these issues must take place in parallel to the technical research and development of ADR techniques, and debris removal needs to be done in an environment of international collaboration and cooperation.     

Dominance in space — a new means of exercising global power?

Sustained criticism of the strategy of nuclear deterrence and technological developments in the military uses of space suggest that nuclear weapons may soon be replaced by control of outer space as the USA and USSR's primary instrument of global power. This article traces the change in perceptions of nuclear weapons policy and assesses the potential of outer space as a means of control, and the plans of the two superpowers for its exploitation, especially in the military sphere. The consequences for Western Europe of a shift from nuclear to space-based weapons as the primary guarantor of national security are also discussed.     

The future of human spaceflight.

After the Apollo Moon program, the international space station represents a further milestone of humankind in space, International follow-on programs like a manned return to the Moon and a first manned Mars Mission can be considered as the next logical step. More and more attention is also paid to the topic of future space tourism in Earth orbit, which is currently under investigation in the USA, Japan and Europe due to its multibillion dollar market potential and high acceptance in society. The wide variety of experience, gained within the space station program, should be used in order to achieve time and cost savings for future manned programs. Different strategies and roadmaps are investigated for space tourism and human missions to the Moon and Mars, based on a comprehensive systems analysis approach. By using DLR's software tool FAST (Fast Assessment of Space Technologies), different scenarios will be defined, optimised and finally evaluated with respect to mission architecture, required technologies, total costs and program duration. This includes trajectory analysis, spacecraft design on subsystem level, operations and life cycle cost analysis. For space tourism, an expected evolutionary roadmap will be described which is initiated by short suborbital tourism and ends with visionary designs like the Space Hotel Berlin and the Space Hotel Europe concept. Furthermore the potential space tourism market, its economic meaning as well as the expected range of the costs of a space ticket (e.g. $50,000 for a suborbital flight) will be analysed and quantified. For human missions to the Moon and Mars, an international 20 year program for the first decades of the next millennium is proposed, which requires about $2.5 Billion per year for a manned return to the Moon program and about $2.6 Billion per year for the first 3 manned Mars missions. This is about the annual budget, which is currently spend by the USA only for the operations of its Space Shuttle fleet which generally proofs the affordability of such ambitious programs after the build-up of the International Space Station, when corresponding budget might become again available.     

Europe needs a space policy

This article argues that growing space activities are essential to maintain European high-technology ambitions. The approval of ESA's future programme at the ministers' meeting in late 1991 is regarded as an absolute minimum and the adoption of a collective European space policy setting European autonomy, international cooperation, competitiveness and equitable market conditions is urgently required. The article further argues that a power structure to define, adopt and update such a policy and monitor its implementation must be established. It should be based on ESA, with other organizations concerned with space playing advisory roles.     

Competing for a future in space: NASA and the Department of Defense

Although the 1958 Space Act stressed the civilian nature of the US space programme, the military space budget has grown to over twice the size of NASA's. Military influence on US space policy has grown accordingly. NASA has failed in articulating a sense of direction and purpose for the civilian space programme justifying sustained and adequate support. What matters most for a reinvigorated NASA is the level of commitment the nation is prepared to make, and in today's political climate greater spending on a civilian space programme would be unpopular. The USA looks likely to continue to fall behind in the international competition for space leadership.     

Europe — towards a new long-term programme

The European response to the US invitation to participate in the space station programme will determine the long-term future of the European space industry. The European Space Agency is charged with replying to the invitation, which will be one of the items on the agenda of the first ministerial meeting of the Council in early 1985. All going well, by the end of 1985 Europe will have developed a new long-term strategy towards space which will include substantial collaboration with the USA.     

The USA and arms control in space: An IR analysis

After years of international stalemate talks on space arms control were finally initiated in Geneva in 2009. The position of the new US administration, however, is still waiting to be defined. This article assesses the advantages and disadvantages of different arms control proposals by looking at them from the perspectives of interdependence theory, neoliberal institutionalism and neo-realism, respectively. They all come to similar conclusions as far as conventional military power and security are concerned: any formal or informal ban on debris-producing activities in space would be highly advantageous to the USA and its allies. When the analysis also takes into account US missile defense policy, however, a neo-realist perspective shows rather mixed results.