Availability modeling for periodically inspection system with different lifetime and repair-time distribution

Availability is a main feature of design and operation of all engineering system. Recently,availability evaluation of periodical inspection systems with different structures is at the center of attention due to the wide application in engineering. In this paper, an analytical and probabilistic availability model for periodical inspection system is proposed by a new recursively algorithm,which can achieve limiting average availability and instantaneous availability of periodical inspection system under arbitrary lifetime and repair-time distributions. Then three application examples are presented, the systems lifetime and repair-time are respectively fellow exponential/exponential,Weibull/normal and Weibull/lognormal distribution. Finally, a Weibull/lognormal system is studied to analyze the dynamic relationship between inspection period and availability. The results indicate that the proposed approach can provide the technology support for improving system availability and determining reasonable inspection period.     

导航卫星中断频次的分析方法

面向导航卫星中断频次的定量分析需求,该文分析导航卫星中断产生的主要原因,给出中断频次分析的流程,并针对分析过程中的三个关键问题,研究提出具体实施方法,包括通过相关性分析快速定位底层中断事件,通过中断树建立指标分析模型,并融合在轨数据、地面试验数据快速预估得到底层功能异常率等。最后通过示例进一步说明中断频次分析过程。该文方法已应用于北斗导航卫星工程。     

基于不确定性的飞行器分离可靠性建模与分析方法

为实现飞行器分离任务可靠性的定量分析和高效精确评估，研究了高超声速飞行器分离任务过程中各种不确定性因素对分离可靠性的影响，提出一种基于不确定性的飞行器分离可靠性建模与分析方法。面向高超声速飞行器分离任务需求，建立分离动力学仿真模型，综合考虑分离过程不确定性因素的影响，利用灵敏度分析方法识别主要不确定性因素，构建分离可靠性模型。针对此模型，提出一种改进主动学习Kriging(IAK)的分离可靠性分析方法，通过新的采样策略选取失效概率更大的采样点作为新增训练点，进行高效可靠性分析。实例结果表明，该方法能够准确描述不确定性因素对分离过程的影响，提升分离可靠性定量分析的精度和效率，为飞行器分离方案的精细化设计提供支撑。     

Percolation transition in temporal airport network

The air transportation system has a critical impact on the global economy. While the system reliability is essential for the operational management of air traffic, it remains challenging to understand the network reliability of the air transportation system. This paper focuses on how the global air traffic is integrated from local scale along with operational time. The integration process of air traffic into a temporally connected network is viewed as percolation process by increasing the integration time constantly. The critical integration time T_P which is found during the integration process can measure the global reliability of air traffic. The critical links at T_P are also identified, the delay of which will influence the global integration of the airport network. These findings may provide insights on the reliability management for the temporal airport network.     

A new structural reliability index based on uncertainty theory

The classical probabilistic reliability theory and fuzzy reliability theory cannot directly measure the uncertainty of structural reliability with uncertain variables,i.e.,subjective random and fuzzy variables.In order to simultaneously satisfy the duality of randomness and subadditivity of fuzziness in the reliability problem,a new quantification method for the reliability of structures is presented based on uncertainty theory,and an uncertainty-theory-based perspective of classical Cornell reliability index is explored.In this paper,by introducing the uncertainty theory,we adopt the uncertain measure to quantify the reliability of structures for the subjective probability or fuzzy variables,instead of probabilistic and possibilistic measures.We utilize uncertain variables to uniformly represent the subjective random and fuzzy parameters,based on which we derive solutions to analyze the uncertainty reliability of structures with uncertainty distributions.Moreover,we propose the Cornell uncertainty reliability index based on the uncertain expected value and variance.Experimental results on three numerical applications demonstrate the validity of the proposed method.     

考虑应力松弛的涡扇发动机高压涡轮持久寿命可靠性

建立了考虑应力松弛的持久寿命可靠性分析方法及公式。采用3维接触有限元模型,获得涡轮盘叶弹塑性应力应变场,筛选了某高压涡轮的危险部位。对涡轮危险部位进行了考虑应力松弛影响的持久寿命可靠性分析。分析结果表明所建立的分析方法及公式具有足够高的精度。在涡轮部件持久寿命可靠性分析时采用考虑蠕变松弛的概率寿命分析方法是非常重要的。     

基于单循环方法的涡轮叶片可靠性及多学科设计优化

为了得到适用于涡轮叶片复杂结构并同时考虑可靠性的多学科设计优化方法,将基于单循环方法的可靠性分析（SLBRA）与并行子空间设计优化方法 （CSSO）相结合,提出了一种基于可靠性的多学科设计优化（RBMDO）方法。在优化过程中使用Kriging近似模型并不断提高模型精度。该方法在计算最可能失效点（MPP）的过程中避免了优化迭代,提高了计算效率。以涡轮叶片的设计优化为例,对该方法进行了验证并与传统双循环方法进行了对比。结果表明,优化结果满足可靠性的要求,与双循环方法相比优化效率明显提高,证明了该方法在工程应用中的可行性和有效性。     

专升本大学英语试卷分析

简要分析了集美大学09级专升本学生第一学期大学英语期末考试试卷的信度、效度、难度和区分度等各项指标,并提出了一些修改的建议,从而对今后设计更为科学合理的试卷,提高英语测试的水平提供一定的参考。     

飞船降落伞系统的可靠性建模

飞船降落伞系统中设计有主伞包开关判别和速度判别两个主伞系状态监测装置,这使得飞船降落伞系统具有其自身特点.主伞包开关判别和速度判别装置各自具有两类任务可靠性,且它们各自的监测范围不同.采用冷贮备模型描述飞船降落伞系统可靠性时,需基于一定的假设,不能准确地描述飞船降落伞系统的可靠性.为此,在分析飞船降落伞系统自身特点和冷贮备模型局限性的基础上,采用事件树方法,建立了飞船降落伞系统的可靠性事件树和更为准确的可靠性数学模型.该模型更具一般性,能更准确地反映飞船降落伞系统的可靠性.     

感应电动机寿命预测的加速退化试验方法研究

感应电动机正常使用时一般具有长寿命高可靠性,为在较短时间内预测感应电动机的寿命,提出了一种简单易行的感应电动机加速退化试验方法:在电动机转轴上偏心安装圆孔叶片模拟电动机负载工作时承受的不平衡载荷,并且通过改变叶片偏心安装孔的位置模拟增大不平衡载荷。进行了3种应力形式的试验研究,以试验中测得的电动机轴心轨迹面积值表征电动机的性能退化指标,建立了轴心轨迹面积相对变化的漂移Brown运动和幂律加速退化模型,利用无偏估计法和最小二乘法得到模型参数的估计,外推获得叶片无偏心安装状态下的不平衡重力矩,以该值作为电动机正常工作时承受的不平衡载荷,预测和分析了电动机正常工作寿命和可靠性,验证了加速退化试验方法的可行性和高效性。