Space weather: its effects and predictability

Terrestrial technology is now, and increasingly, sensitive to space weather. Most space weather is caused by solar storms and the resulting changes to the Earth's radiation environment and the magnetosphere. The Sun as the driver of space weather is under intense observation but remains to be adequately modelled. Recent spacecraft measurements are greatly improving models of solar activity, the interaction of the solar wind with the magnetosphere, and models of the radiation belts. In-situ data updates the basic magnetospheric model to provide specific details of high-energy electron flux at satellite orbits. Shock wave effects at the magnetopause can also be coarsely predicted. However, the specific geomagnetic effects at ground level depend on the calculation of magnetic and electric fields and further improvements are needed. New work on physical models is showing promise of raising geomagnetic and ionospheric predictability above the synoptic climatological level. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

高精度GPS定位的精密电离层模型

在长距离GPS实时动态定位(RTK)过程中,电离层延迟误差是影响定位精度的主要误差源.目前,由于采用全空间电离层模型精度不够,对长距离RTK定位主要采用双差电离层残差内插方式.本文提出一种新的电离层模型.该模型仅对每个卫星轨迹通过的电离层部分进行建模,可适用于高精度GPS定位.采用香港数据,结果表明,该模型可较好地模拟低纬度电离层变化,并可支持GPS厘米级定位精度.     

Study of GNSS-measured ionospheric total electron content variations generated by powerful HF-heating

The purpose of this work is to report the experimental evidences for the influence of perturbations in the electron density in the dayside mid-latitude ionosphere, that are caused by high-frequency heating of the F2 layer, on the GNSS signals. The experiments were carried out at the Sura heater (Radio Physical Research Institute, N. Novgorod). During the sessions of ionospheric heating with different time modulations of the radiated power the rays linking the navigational satellites with the ground receiver intersected the heated region. Variations in the total electron content (TEC) were studied; these variations are proportional to the reduced phases of navigational signals. It is shown that with the square-wave modulation of the radiated power (with periods of 1, 6, 10 and 15 min), perturbations with periods of the main modulation of heating and its harmonics appear in the spectrum of TEC variations. Examples are presented of identification of the heating-induced variations in TEC, including determination of the amplitudes and time characteristics of these variations.     

A comprehensive study of the 2016 Mw 6.0 Italy earthquake based on high-rate (10 Hz) GPS data

The 2016 M_w 6.0 Italy earthquake is successfully recorded by the near-field 10?Hz GPS and 200?Hz Strong Motion (SM) stations, providing valuable data for this study. A comprehensive study of this earthquake is carried out based on GPS data, which contains coseismic deformations analysis, noise analysis, seismic wave picking, and magnitude determination. The noise of most GPS-derived displacement waveforms can be described as a combination of white noise, flicker noise, and random walk noise after the earthquake occurrence, and the spectral indices vary significantly for most stations, implying that the seismic signals have affected the noise characteristic of GPS-derived displacement waveforms. S-transform is employed to assess the GPS capability to detect the seismic arrival time. The SM station AMT and the GPS station AMAT are in good agreement in seismic wave picking, and the difference is only 1.2?s in the north component, suggesting that the outcome of seismic wave picking using GPS data is reliable. Then, a classic empirical formula is employed to determine the moment magnitude. A robust moment magnitude (Mw 5.90) can be estimated by the nine GPS stations with about 23.9?s. If four GPS stations near the epicenter is chosen to determine the magnitude, it only take 13.0?s to retrieve a reliable preliminary (Mw 5.82) magnitude, which is 5.4?s ahead of nine stations. In addition, Cross Wavelet Transform (XWT) is adopted to measuring the correlation and phase relationship between GPS and SM records. The result of XWT analysis indicates 10?Hz GPS is capable of capturing reliable and accurate coseismic dynamic deformations, as evidenced by the XWT-based semblance being close to 1 between GPS and SM records. The above results confirm the capability of 10?Hz GPS to capture coseismic dynamic deformations, detect seismic arrival time, and determine earthquake magnitude. Moreover, rapid magnitude determination based on 10?Hz GPS data can be regarded as an important supplement to Earthquake Early Warning (EEW).     

Initial nighttime ionospheric observations with advanced ionospheric probe onboard FORMOSAT-5

FORMOSAT-5 satellite was launched into a sun-synchronous orbit at 720 km altitude with 98.28° inclination on 25 August 2017. The onboard scientific payload, Advanced Ionospheric Probe (AIP) is capable of measuring topside ionospheric ion density, cross-track flow velocities, ion composition and temperature, and electron temperature. Initial observations of nighttime midlatitude ionospheric density and vertical flow velocity variations at 2230 LT sector during a few quiet magnetic days in December 2017 are studied here. Longitudinal density variations in the equatorward edge of midlatitude ionospheric trough (MIT) region are noticed. Accompanied with this density variation, the vertical flow velocities also behave differently. Although the density difference has been stated due to zonal wind effect related to the declination of the geomagnetic field lines, the vertical flow velocity variation seems to play the opposite role. All these density and vertical flow observations in the northern winter hemisphere can only be explained by the longitudinal differences in the diffusion velocity coming down from the protonsphere (plasmasphere). In addition, the hemispheric asymmetry in the vertical flow velocity can also be explained by the interaction between the topside ionosphere and the protonsphere. The observed vertical flow variations near MIT at different longitudes should present a new potential tool for the study of MIT formation.     

A time-frequency analysis of the thermal radiation background anomalies caused by large earthquakes: A case study of the Wenchuan 8.0 earthquake

Strong earthquakes have an impact on the regional thermal radiation background, which has been both observed and confirmed. This effect produces anomalies in the thermal radiation background (TRBA) and increases the difficulty of extracting a thermal radiation anomaly (TRA) that is associated with an earthquake occurring during the same time period. The extraction and identification of such anomalies has been ignored by previous studies. In this study, we investigate the time-frequency analysis (TFA) method, together with the wavelet filtering of the Daubechies method and the relative power spectrum analysis of the Fourier Welch method to extract and analyse the TRBA caused by the 2008 Wenchuan Ms 8.0 earthquake and the TRA of the 2013 Minxian-Zhangxian Ms 6.6 earthquake using data concerning the brightness temperature of a black body (TBB) from the Fengyun-2 series of geostationary meteorological satellites developed by China. The result showed that this method can effectively extract and analyse the TRBA caused by the Wenchuan earthquake and the TRA of the Minxian-Zhangxian earthquake form a complex background environment. Furthermore, we discussed the impact of the earthquake on the TRBA and segmented the process. The impact is mainly reflected by three aspects; the characteristic period of the TRBA changes, the TRBA occurs at the same time every year, which is identical to the time at which the earthquake anomaly occurred, and the impact process is in stages. We also summarized the correlation between the characteristic parameters of a TRA and the regional thermal radiation background, geography, and climatic factors.     

电离层色散对DS/FH-BPSK信号解调性能影响

相位连续的DS/FH(Direct Sequence/Frequency Hopping,直接序列/跳频)扩频信号的扩频带宽比直扩信号更宽,在电离层的非线性相位以及跳频频点变化这两者的共同作用下,该信号的BPSK(Binary Phase Shift Keying,二相相移键控)解调性能明显恶化。依据随机变量概率分布的数学规律,推导得到了在背景电离层色散条件和跳频频点均匀分布前提下,某种DS/FH卫星测控信号的引导信号和长周期信号BPSK误码率的变化规律,并在特定信号参数条件下进行了误码率仿真。     

End-to-End Modeling of the Solar Terrestrial System

Traditionally modeling for space science has concentrated on developing simulations for individual components of the solar terrestrial system. In reality these regions are coupled together. This coupling can be as simple as the driving of the magnetosphere – ionosphere – thermosphere system by the solar wind or as a complicated as the feedback of the ionospheric conductivity and currents on the magnetosphere. As part of the CISM project we are beginning a concentrated effort to compressively model the entire system. This approach includes chains of models. In the first chain physics based numerical models are utilized while in the second chain empirical models are coupled together. The first half of this paper discusses the numerical modeling approach by highlighting the coupling of pairs of regions within the system. In the second section we present results from empirical models which are combined to make long term forecasts of conditions in the geospace environment. It is expected that a validated and reliable forecast model for space weather can be obtained by combining the strongest elements of each chain.     

45°(N)纬度带的Klobuchar like电离层延迟季节修正模型与评估

电离层延迟是全球卫星导航系统（GNSS）的主要误差源之一。对于装配GNSS单频接收机的航空器,选择简单有效的Klobuchar广播电离层模型来改正电离层延迟误差,其修正率为50%～60%。针对45°（N）纬度带,提出了更高电离层修正需求。考虑到季节因素对中高纬度地区电离层的显著影响,利用GIMs（Global Ionospheric Maps）分析了昼夜中TEC（Total Electron Content）的峰值和谷值随季节（年积日）的变化,建立了一种适用于45°（N）纬度带的Klobuchar like电离层模型。该模型不增加广播模型系数,新模型的夜间和VTEC高峰时电离层修正率分别达到了82%和80%,表明在穿刺点集中的45°(N)纬度地区使用该模型可以更精确地描述该地区的电离层,帮助航空器实现更高精度的定位。