Discriminating satellite IR anomalies associated with the MS 7.1 Yushu earthquake in China

In the process of exploring pre-earthquake thermal anomalies using satellite infrared data, Blackett et al. (2011) found that the previously reported anomalies before the 2001 Mw 7.7 Gujarat earthquake, in India, were related to positive biases caused by data gaps due to cloud cover and mosaicing of neighboring orbits of MODIS satellite data. They supposed that such effects could also be responsible for other cases. We noted a strip-shaped TIR anomaly on March 17th, 2010, 28?days before the Ms. 7.1 Yushu earthquake (Qin et al., 2011). Here we again investigate multi-year infrared satellite data in different bands to discriminate whether the anomaly is associated with the earthquake, or is only bias caused by the data gaps. From the water vapor images, we find lots of clouds that have TIR anomalies. However, on the cloudiness background, there is an obvious strip-shaped gap matching the tectonic faults almost perfectly. In particular, the animation loops of hourly water vapor images show that the cloud kept moving from west to east, while they never covered the strip-shaped gap. We consider that the cloud with this special spatial pattern should have implied the abnormal signals associated with the seismogenic process. Based on current physical models, the satellite IR anomalies both on TIR and water vapor bands can qualitatively be explained using synthetic mechanisms.     

Thermal and TEC anomalies detection using an intelligent hybrid system around the time of the Saravan,Iran, (Mw = 7.7) earthquake of 16 April 2013

A powerful earthquake of M_w = 7.7 struck the Saravan region (28.107° N, 62.053° E) in Iran on 16 April 2013. Up to now nomination of an automated anomaly detection method in a non linear time series of earthquake precursor has been an attractive and challenging task. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) have revealed strong potentials in accurate time series prediction. This paper presents the first study of an integration of ANN and PSO method in the research of earthquake precursors to detect the unusual variations of the thermal and total electron content (TEC) seismo-ionospheric anomalies induced by the strong earthquake of Saravan. In this study, to overcome the stagnation in local minimum during the ANN training, PSO as an optimization method is used instead of traditional algorithms for training the ANN method. The proposed hybrid method detected a considerable number of anomalies 4 and 8 days preceding the earthquake. Since, in this case study, ionospheric TEC anomalies induced by seismic activity is confused with background fluctuations due to solar activity, a multi-resolution time series processing technique based on wavelet transform has been applied on TEC signal variations. In view of the fact that the accordance in the final results deduced from some robust methods is a convincing indication for the efficiency of the method, therefore the detected thermal and TEC anomalies using the ANN + PSO method were compared to the results with regard to the observed anomalies by implementing the mean, median, Wavelet, Kalman filter, Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Genetic Algorithm (GA) methods. The results indicate that the ANN + PSO method is quite promising and deserves serious attention as a new tool for thermal and TEC seismo anomalies detection.     

Ground-based and satellite DC-ULF electric field anomalies around Wenchuan M8.0 earthquake

The ground-based and satellite DC-ULF electric field data were analyzed around Wenchuan M8.0 earthquake on May 12, 2008 in China. The results show that ground electric field anomalies occurred at 3 stations located to the north and south of the epicenter with the amplitude of 3–100 mV/km. The change shapes and their amplitude of ground electric field anomalies are different largely due to their individual underground layer conductivity, water level and so on. The analysis of long time series illustrates that the abnormal geoelectric field started since March 2008. Onboard the DEMETER satellite, the ULF waveforms of electric field were collected and processed by wavelet transform method. The disturbances in the ionosphere were about 3–5 mV/m at a frequency band lower than 0.5 Hz. When the ground and space electric field anomalies were compared, their occurrence time and spatial distribution points are consistent with each other, including the long time anomalies from March 2008 and the short term ones 1–2 days before the Wenchuan earthquake. Finally, the coupling mechanism was discussed.     

Is there an abnormal enhancement of atmospheric aerosol before the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake?

There are extensive reports of ionospheric disturbances before the great 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, which are possibly explained by seismogenic electric field hypotheses linked with the aerosols injected in atmosphere. This paper attempts to investigate the possible change of atmospheric aerosol optical depth (AOD) associated with this earthquake by using MODIS data from both Terra and Aqua satellites. The result shows a clear enhancement of AOD along the Longmenshan faults 7 days before the quake, which is 1 day and 4 days earlier than the reported negative and positive ionospheric disturbances, respectively, and is 1 day earlier than or quasi-synchronism with other reported atmospheric anomalies including air temperature, outgoing longwave radiation and relative humidity. Particularly, the spatial distribution of AOD enhancement is very local and it is correlated well with the active faults and surface ruptures. We suggest that this unique enhancement could be associated with the Lithosphere–Atmosphere–Ionosphere coupling process during the preparation of the Wenchuan earthquake.     

Removing Solar Radiation Based on the Empirical Mode Decomposition Method for Seismo-Ionospheric Anomaly Before the M9.0 Tohoku Earthquake

The ionospheric effect from solar activity can be seen as the background in the process of detecting the ionospheric precursor prior to strong earthquakes. The ionospheric variation induced by the forthcoming earthquake can be covered by the strong solar background during the period of high solar activity. The issue of how to remove the ionospheric effect from solar radiation is of outstanding significance. In this paper, a method of Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) is used to eliminate the solar background. As a case study, the global ionospheric map TEC before the M9.0 Tohoku earthquake on 11 March 2011 is analyzed. After the effect of solar radiation is removed using the EMD method, the precursor of the imminent earthquake is more obvious. The ionospheric anomaly had a local character and only appeared close to the earthquake epicenter while the useful signals were covered by the solar radiation background with traditional method, which implies that the EMD method is effective in eliminating solar radiation background.      

An Adaptive Network-based Fuzzy Inference System for the detection of thermal and TEC anomalies around the time of the Varzeghan,Iran, (Mw = 6.4) earthquake of 11 August 2012

Anomaly detection is extremely important for forecasting the date, location and magnitude of an impending earthquake. In this paper, an Adaptive Network-based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) has been proposed to detect the thermal and Total Electron Content (TEC) anomalies around the time of the Varzeghan, Iran, (M_w = 6.4) earthquake jolted in 11 August 2012 NW Iran. ANFIS is the famous hybrid neuro-fuzzy network for modeling the non-linear complex systems. In this study, also the detected thermal and TEC anomalies using the proposed method are compared to the results dealing with the observed anomalies by applying the classical and intelligent methods including Interquartile, Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) methods. The duration of the dataset which is comprised from Aqua-MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) night-time snapshot images and also Global Ionospheric Maps (GIM), is 62 days. It can be shown that, if the difference between the predicted value using the ANFIS method and the observed value, exceeds the pre-defined threshold value, then the observed precursor value in the absence of non seismic effective parameters could be regarded as precursory anomaly. For two precursors of LST and TEC, the ANFIS method shows very good agreement with the other implemented classical and intelligent methods and this indicates that ANFIS is capable of detecting earthquake anomalies. The applied methods detected anomalous occurrences 1 and 2 days before the earthquake. This paper indicates that the detection of the thermal and TEC anomalies derive their credibility from the overall efficiencies and potentialities of the five integrated methods.     

Crustal deformation characteristics of Sichuan-Yunnan region in China on the constraint of multi-periods of GPS velocity fields

In order to obtain deformation parameters in each block of Sichuan-Yunnan Region (SYG) in China by stages and establish a dynamic model about the variation of the strain rate fields and the surface expansion in this area, we taken the Global Positioning System (GPS) sites velocity in the region as constrained condition and taken advantage of the block strain calculation model based on spherical surface. We also analyzed the deformation of the active blocks in the whole SYG before and after the Wenchuan earthquake, and analyzed the deformation of active blocks near the epicenter of the Wenchuan earthquake in detail. The results show that, (1) Under the effects of the carving from India plate and the crimping from the potential energy of Tibetan Plateau for a long time, there is a certain periodicity in crustal deformation in SYG. And the period change and the earthquake occurrence have a good agreement. (2) The differences in GPS velocity fields relative Eurasian reference frame shows that the Wenchuan earthquake and the Ya'an earthquake mainly affect the crustal movement in the central and southern part of SYG, and the average velocity difference is about 4–8?mm/a for the Wenchuan earthquake and 2–4?mm/a for the Ya'an earthquake. (3) For the Wenchuan earthquake, the average strain changed from 10 to 20 nanostrian/a before earthquake to 40–50 nanostrian/a after the earthquake, but before and after the Ya’an earthquake, the strain value increased from about 15 nanostrian/a to about 30 nanostrian/a. (4) The Wenchuan earthquake has changed the strain parameter of each active block more or less. Especially, the Longmen block and Chengdu block near the epicenter. The research provides fundamental material for the study of the dynamic mechanism of the push extrusion from the north-east of the India plate and the crimp from Qinghai Tibet Plateau, and it also provides support for the study of crustal stress variation and earthquake prediction in Sichuan Yunnan region.     

A nonlinear background removal method for seismo-ionospheric anomaly analysis under a complex solar activity scenario: A case study of the M9.0 Tohoku earthquake

A precise determination of ionospheric total electron content (TEC) anomaly variations that are likely associated with large earthquakes as observed by global positioning system (GPS) requires the elimination of the ionospheric effect from irregular solar electromagnetic radiation. In particular, revealing the seismo-ionospheric anomalies when earthquakes occurred during periods of high solar activity is of utmost importance. To overcome this constraint, a multiresolution time series processing technique based on wavelet transform applicable to global ionosphere map (GIM) TEC data was used to remove the nonlinear effect from solar radiation for the earthquake that struck Tohoku, Japan, on 11 March, 2011. As a result, it was found that the extracted TEC have a good correlation with the measured solar extreme ultraviolet flux in 26–34 nm (EUV_26–34) and the 10.7 cm solar radio flux (F_10.7). After removing the influence of solar radiation origin in GIM TEC, the analysis results show that the TEC around the forthcoming epicenter and its conjugate were significantly enhanced in the afternoon period of 8 March 2011, 3 days before the earthquake. The spatial distributions of the TEC anomalous and extreme enhancements indicate that the earthquake preparation process had brought with a TEC anomaly area of size approximately 1650 and 5700 km in the latitudinal and longitudinal directions, respectively.     

Genetic algorithm for TEC seismo-ionospheric anomalies detection around the time of the Solomon (Mw = 8.0) earthquake of 06 February 2013

On 6 February 2013, at 12:12:27 local time (01:12:27 UTC) a seismic event registering M_w 8.0 struck the Solomon Islands, located at the boundaries of the Australian and Pacific tectonic plates. Time series prediction is an important and widely interesting topic in the research of earthquake precursors. This paper describes a new computational intelligence approach to detect the unusual variations of the total electron content (TEC) seismo-ionospheric anomalies induced by the powerful Solomon earthquake using genetic algorithm (GA). The GA detected a considerable number of anomalous occurrences on earthquake day and also 7 and 8 days prior to the earthquake in a period of high geomagnetic activities. In this study, also the detected TEC anomalies using the proposed method are compared to the results dealing with the observed TEC anomalies by applying the mean, median, wavelet, Kalman filter, ARIMA, neural network and support vector machine methods. The accordance in the final results of all eight methods is a convincing indication for the efficiency of the GA method. It indicates that GA can be an appropriate non-parametric tool for anomaly detection in a non linear time series showing the seismo-ionospheric precursors variations.     

Multi precursors analysis associated with the powerful Ecuador (MW = 7.8) earthquake of 16 April 2016 using Swarm satellites data in conjunction with other multi-platform satellite and ground data

After DEMETER satellite mission (2004–2010), the launch of the Swarm satellites (Alpha (A), Bravo (B) and Charlie (C)) has created a new opportunity in the study of earthquake ionospheric precursors. Nowadays, there is no doubt that multi precursors analysis is a necessary phase to better understand the LAIC (Lithosphere Atmosphere Ionosphere Coupling) mechanism before large earthquakes. In this study, using absolute scalar magnetometer, vector field magnetometer and electric field instrument on board Swarm satellites, GPS (Global Positioning System) measurements, MODIS-Aqua satellite and ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) data, the variations of the electron density and temperature, magnetic field, TEC (Total Electron Content), LST (Land Surface Temperature), AOD (Aerosol Optical Depth) and SKT (SKin Temperature) have been surveyed to find the potential seismic anomalies around the strong Ecuador (M_w = 7.8) earthquake of 16 April 2016. The four solar and geomagnetic indices: F10.7, D_st, K_p and a_p were investigated to distinguish whether the preliminary detected anomalies might be associated with the solar-geomagnetic activities instead of the seismo-ionospheric anomalies. The Swarm satellites (A, B and C) data analysis indicate the anomalies in time series of electron density variations on 7, 11 and 12 days before the event; the unusual variations in time series of electron temperature on 8 days preceding the earthquake; the analysis of the magnetic field scalar and vectors data show the considerable anomalies 52, 48, 23, 16, 11, 9 and 7 days before the main shock. A striking anomaly is detected in TEC variations on 1 day before earthquake at 9:00 UTC. The analysis of MODIS-Aqua night-time images shows that LST increase unusually on 11 days prior to main shock. In addition, the AOD variations obtained from MODIS measurements reach the maximum value on 10 days before the earthquake. The SKT around epicentral region presents anomalous higher value about 40 days before the earthquake. It should be noted that the different lead times of the observed anomalies could be acknowledged based on a reasonable LAIC earthquake mechanism. Our results emphasize that the Swarm satellites measurements play an undeniable role in progress the studies of the ionospheric precursors.     

Surface latent heat flux anomalies quasi-synchronous with ionospheric disturbances before the 2007 Pu’er earthquake in China

One of various mechanisms of pre-earthquake lithosphere–atmosphere–ionosphere coupling as possible explanation of the seismo-ionospheric effects is connected with the release of latent heat. Abnormal variations of ionospheric electromagnetic parameters possibly related to the 2007 Ms 6.4 Pu’er earthquake in China were reported. This paper attempts to examine whether there were abnormal changes of surface latent heat flux (SLHF) linked with this pre-earthquake ionospheric disturbances. The spatio-temporal statistical analyzes of multi-years SLHF data from USA NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Project reveal that local SLHF enhancements appeared 11, 10 and 7 days before the Pu’er earthquake, respectively. As contrasted to the formerly reported local ionospheric Ne enhancement 9 days before the shock observed by DEMETER satellite, it is discovered that the SLHF and Ne anomalies are quasi-synchronous and have good spatial correspondence with the epicentre and the local active faults. This is valuable for understanding the seismogenic coupling processes and for recognizing earthquake anomaly with multiple parameters from integrated Earth observation system.     

Study of the 2013 Lushan M7.0 earthquake coseismic ionospheric disturbances

On April 20, 2013, an earthquake of M7.0 occurred in Lushan, Sichuan province, China. This paper investigates the coseismic ionospheric anomalies using GPS (Global Positioning System) data from 23 reference stations in Sichuan province that are a part of the Crustal Movement Observation Network of China (CMONOC). The recorded results show that a clear ionospheric anomaly occurred within 15 min after the earthquake near the epicenter, and the occurrence time of the anomalies recorded by various stations is related to the distance from the epicenter. The maximum anomaly is 0.25 TECu, with a 2 min duration and the distance of the recording station to the epicenter is 83 km. Acoustic waves generated by the crustal vertical movement during the earthquake propagate up to the height of the ionosphere lead to the ionospheric anomaly, and the propagation speed of the acoustic wave is calculated as 0.72 ± 0.04 km/s based on the propagation time and propagation distance, consistent with the average speed of sound waves within a 0–450 km atmospheric height.     

DEMETER卫星探测到的强震前O^＋浓度变化

利用DEMETER卫星观测数据,采用level-2图像目视解译的方法和重访轨道对比方法,对2006年5月3日发生在汤加群岛的7．9级地震进行分析．从震前6天、震前2天、震前1天和震后2天的level-2图像可看到,电场和等离子体参量在震中上空偏北的位置出现扰动信号,震前的扰动信号幅度随地震时间临近有所增强,扰动持续时间也相应增加;震后2天扰动信号依然存在,其幅度并未减弱．通过对比震前1天的轨道在2006年至2008年内的重访轨道,发现O^＋浓度存在三类较规律的变化特征,即在夏季时,北半球的值高于南半球;冬季时则相反;二分季节时,南北半球含量相当．本文给出了地震和磁暴对O^＋浓度的不同影响,地震影响最靠近震中位置轨道上的O^＋浓度,而磁暴影响全球轨道上O^＋浓度分布．同时获取了DEMETER卫星上朗缪尔探针在上述重访轨道同步探测的电子浓度数据,发现电子浓度与O^＋浓度存在同步增加．等离子体浓度增加的现象可能与地震产生异常电场进而影响电离层结构有关．     

强地震活动事件期间热层大气密度异常变化的探测结果

地震活动一直是人类非常关注的自然灾害事件, 其对热层大气密度的影响还不是非常清楚. 2008年5月12日中国四川汶川发生震级8.0级强震事件, 随后, 在6月14日日本本州东部, 7月5日鄂霍次克海和7月19日日本本州东海岸发生震级7.0~7.6级强震事件, 利用期间中国星载大气密度探测器在630 km高度上就位探测的热层大气密度对探测结果进行综合分析, 结果表明, 强地震震源中心区域上空附近热层大气密度出现异常降变. 在时间上, 强地震发生前1~3天内就已开始出现大气密度降变, 强地震发生日附近降变达到谷值, 降变比达0.40~0.65. 这种降变的纬度区域范围震前位于强震中心所处纬度的±3o~±9o, 强震发生当日扩大到±8o~±20o.      

A simple and valid analysis method for orbit anomaly detection

A simple analysis method for orbit anomaly detection, called semi-major axis change method (SACM) was presented by using a relationship between the change of orbit parameters and velocity increments. In this method, the mean value and standard deviation of the semi-major axis change in different time intervals were first calculated according to historical data. Then, these two parameters, the mean value and standard deviation of the semi-major axis change, are chosen as basis variables and combined as an anomalous criterion. For orbit objects with different characteristic, anomalous thresholds were given in different time intervals for identifying the anomalies of the orbital objects. Finally, this method is used for low earth orbit (LEO) satellites and American–Russian breakup debris. By adopting this method, the characteristics of the orbit change were given. The accuracy rate of anomaly analysis for LEO satellites and American–Russian breakup debris can reach to 100%, which demonstrates that the method was rapid and valid.     

On the detection of anomalous seismo-ionospheric behavior in the presence of space weather stimuli for large earthquakes

Anomalous behavior of ionospheric total electron content (TEC) prior to earthquake has been observed in many studies. Evidence of such seismo-ionospheric coupling effects suggests that it is plausible to rely on TEC signatures for early earthquake warning. However, the detection of pre-earthquake TEC anomalies (PETA) has not been adopted in practice due to two pertinent issues. Firstly, the effects of space weather activity can affect TEC levels and cause anomalous behavior in the TEC. Usually arbitrary thresholds are set for space weather indices to eliminate TEC anomaly due to space weather effects. Secondly, the choice regarding moving time-window length used to characterise background variation of TEC within the statistical envelope approach has an effect on detection of PETA. While the rule-of-thumb in selecting the moving window length is to have a time window capable of capturing background variability and short-term fluctuations, the length of the time window used in the literature varies with little justification. In this study, a critical examination is conducted on the statistical envelope approach and in particular, to eliminate the effect of space weather activity without the use of arbitrary space indices to detect PETA. A two-part PETA identification procedure is proposed, consisting of wavelet analyses isolating non-earthquake TEC contributions, followed by the statistical envelope method using a moving window length standardized based on observed periodicities and statistical implications is suggested. The approach is tested on a database of 30 large earthquakes (M?≥?7.0). The proposed procedure shows that PETA can be detected prior to earthquakes at higher confidence levels without the need to separately check for space weather activity. More importantly, the procedure was able to detect PETA for studies where it was previously reported that PETA could not be detected or detected convincingly.     

Use of principal component analysis in the identification of the spatial pattern of an ionospheric total electron content anomalies after China’s May 12, 2008, M = 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake

This paper uses principal component analysis (PCA) to determine the spatial pattern of total electron content (TEC) anomalies in the ionosphere post the China’s Wenchuan Earthquake of 12 May, 2008 (UTC) (M_w = 7.9). PCA and image processing are applied to the global ionospheric map (GIM) with transforms conducted for the time period 08:00–10:00 UT on 12 May 2008. Results show that at a height of approximately 200 km the anomaly is widespread and less intense; however, it becomes more localized with height reaching maximum intensity and localization at an altitude of 300 km. The spatial distribution is remarkably similar to that reported for a TEC anomaly previously identified as a precursor anomaly on May 9, 2008 for the same time period. Potential causes of the results are discussed with emphasis given to vertical acoustic gravity waves based on the spatial pattern identified.     

Formation mechanism of great positive TEC disturbances prior to Wenchuan earthquake on May 12, 2008

The problems of physical explanation and possible mechanisms of the seismo-ionospheric effects formation are under discussion now. There are proposed different mechanisms of such effects, for example, large- and small-scale internal gravity waves (IGWs), atmospheric electric field, electromagnetic fields and emissions. However, the appearance of local large-scale seismo-ionospheric anomalies in Total Electron Content (TEC) is possible to explain only by two mechanisms: an atmospheric electric field and/or small-scale IGWs. In this paper, the simulation results for reproduction of the observed seismo-ionospheric great positive effects in TEC prior to strong Wenchuan earthquake are presented. The obtained results confirm the proposed mechanism of seismo-ionospheric effects formation by the penetration of the seismogenic electric field from the atmosphere into the ionosphere. It is suggested that so great TEC enhancement observed 3 days prior to Wenchuan earthquake could be explained by combined action of seismogenic vertical electric field and IGWs generated by the solar terminator.     

The propagation features of LF radio waves at topside ionosphere and their variations possibly related to Wenchuan earthquake in 2008

The artificial low frequency (LF) signals recorded at topside ionosphere from DEMETER satellite were analyzed in this paper, and the typical diurnal and seasonal variations were illustrated around 162?kHz in electric field spectra. The larger power spectrum density (PSD) values in electric field at local nighttime and in winter season all demonstrate the correlation feature of lower plasma content to higher penetration of LF waves into ionosphere. Around Wenchuan earthquake, the comparison of signal-noise-ratio (SNR) values in electric field with each half month during January to May in 2008 and the same half month in May from 2005 to 2007 revealed their lowest values and small covering area around the preparation region of Wenchuan earthquake in 2008. Combined with other researches in VLF radio waves and geochemical observations from satellite, the interaction of ion accumulation and upward movement from gas-water release at surface might be a key factor to disturb the ionospheric plasma density, and then possibly leading to the decrease of low energy penetration of LF radio waves from the artificial transmitted source at ground.     

Contribution of ionospheric TEC anomalies to detecting the seismic precursors related to the 2008 Oran-Algeria event

The ionospheric anomalies observed before any notable earthquake have become the subject of predictive research in the field of seismo-ionospheric coupling and/or Solid Earth-Atmosphere. In this paper, the concept of ionospheric modeling has been applied using total electronic content (TEC); derived from dual-frequency GPS recordings from about sixty permanent geodetic stations. The study and the analysis of the anomalous TEC variations, quantifiable on a regional scale, allowed us to detect the principal precursors of the M_w 5.5 earthquake that hit Oran on June 06th, 2008. The envisaged analytical approach is based principally on the time delays estimation relating to the seismic responses from the triggering (lithospheric seismic source) until their recording in data Rinex (GPS_IGS stations) through the reflection system of the electromagnetic waves on the ionospheric level (F2-layer).Indeed, in term of location, the longitude-latitude coordinates of the Oran event epicenter (0.658°W, 35.883°N) affecting the coastal margin of Western Algeria without too much material damage. Although the magnitude of this earthquake is qualified moderate (M_w 5.5, seismic intensity scale V-VI), one can observe apparent disturbances in the terrestrial electromagnetic spectrum associated with ionospheric TEC variations. In the domain of geodetic data analysis, we have noted a significant increase in the ionospheric TEC, which announces the arrival of a seismic precursor several days before the main studied event. Against this background, we emphasize that any seismic event, of significant magnitude, often carries information associated with other variants involved in the package of earthquake studied. Among these variants we evoke the effect of the magnetic field and the effect of the surrounding environment, etc. As for the specific behavior of the GPS_TEC signal, obtained from the Rinex data, and its interaction with the associated seismic activity, we highlight the existence of a spectral conformity between the geomagnetic field and that of the TEC content (spontaneous polarization of the TEC).Finally, we have just confirmed the effectiveness of this forecasting approach which relates the seismo-ionospheric precursors that are embedded in the physical trace of the electromagnetic signal relative to significant and/or moderate earthquakes (M ≥ 5); such as the envisaged case of the 2008 Oran event.