An Overview of Ionosphere—Thermosphere Models Available for Space Weather Purposes

Our objective is to review recent advances in ionospheric and thermospheric modeling that aim at supporting space weather services. The emphasis is placed on achievements of European research groups involved in the COST Action 724. Ionospheric and thermospheric modeling on time scales ranging from a few minutes to several days is fundamental for predicting space weather effects on the Earth’s ionosphere and thermosphere. Space weather affects telecommunications, navigation and positioning systems, radars, and technology in space. We start with an overview of the physical effects of space weather on the upper atmosphere and on systems operating at this regime. Recent research on drivers and development of proxies applied to support space weather modeling efforts are presented, with emphasis on solar radiation indices, solar wind drivers and ionospheric indices. The models are discussed in groups corresponding to the physical effects they are dealing with, i.e. bottomside ionospheric effects, trans-ionospheric effects, neutral density and scale height variations, and spectacular space weather effects such as auroral emissions. Another group of models dealing with global circulation are presented here to demonstrate 3D modeling of the space environment. Where possible we present results concerning comparison of the models’ performance belonging to the same group. Finally we give an overview of European systems providing products for the specification and forecasting of space weather effects on the upper atmosphere, which have implemented operational versions of several ionospheric and thermospheric models.     

End-to-End Modeling of the Solar Terrestrial System

Traditionally modeling for space science has concentrated on developing simulations for individual components of the solar terrestrial system. In reality these regions are coupled together. This coupling can be as simple as the driving of the magnetosphere – ionosphere – thermosphere system by the solar wind or as a complicated as the feedback of the ionospheric conductivity and currents on the magnetosphere. As part of the CISM project we are beginning a concentrated effort to compressively model the entire system. This approach includes chains of models. In the first chain physics based numerical models are utilized while in the second chain empirical models are coupled together. The first half of this paper discusses the numerical modeling approach by highlighting the coupling of pairs of regions within the system. In the second section we present results from empirical models which are combined to make long term forecasts of conditions in the geospace environment. It is expected that a validated and reliable forecast model for space weather can be obtained by combining the strongest elements of each chain.     

Interplanetary studies: Propagation of disturbances between the Sun and the magnetosphere

This review is concerned with the interplanetary ‘transmission line’ between the Sun and the Earth's magnetosphere. It starts with comments about coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that are associated with various forms of solar activities. It then continues with some of the current views about their continuation through the heliosphere to Earth and elsewhere. The evolution of energy, mass, and momentum transfer is of prime interest since the temporal/spatial/magnitude behavior of the interplanetary electric field and transient solar wind dynamic pressure is relevant to the magnetospheric response (the presence or absence of geomagnetic storms and substorms) at Earth. Energetec particle flux predictions are discussed in the context of solar activity (flares, prominence eruptions) at various positions on the solar disk relative to Earth's central meridian. A number of multi-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models, applied to the solar, near-Sun, and interplanetary portions of the ‘transmission line’, are discussed. These model simulations, necessary to advancing our understanding beyond the phenomenological or morphological stages, are directed to deceptively simple questions such as the following: can one-to-one associations be made between specific forms of solar activity and magnetosphere response?     

Space Weather and the Ground-Level Solar Proton Events of the 23rd Solar Cycle

Solar proton events can adversely affect space and ground-based systems. Ground-level events are a subset of solar proton events that have a harder spectrum than average solar proton events and are detectable on Earth’s surface by cosmic radiation ionization chambers, muon detectors, and neutron monitors. This paper summarizes the space weather effects associated with ground-level solar proton events during the 23rd solar cycle. These effects include communication and navigation systems, spacecraft electronics and operations, space power systems, manned space missions, and commercial aircraft operations. The major effect of ground-level events that affect manned spacecraft operations is increased radiation exposure. The primary effect on commercial aircraft operations is the loss of high frequency communication and, at extreme polar latitudes, an increase in the radiation exposure above that experienced from the background galactic cosmic radiation. Calculations of the maximum potential aircraft polar route exposure for each ground-level event of the 23rd solar cycle are presented. The space weather effects in October and November 2003 are highlighted together with on-going efforts to utilize cosmic ray neutron monitors to predict high energy solar proton events, thus providing an alert so that system operators can possibly make adjustments to vulnerable spacecraft operations and polar aircraft routes.     

Polar auroras

Conclusion We have reviewed the somewhat conflicting data which have accumulated on such a vast scale in recent years. It is now becoming clearer which studies are likely to produce significant results, and this in itself may be a very important consequence of the assimilation of accumulated data. We must however ask in conclusion: does the outer radiation belt exist during the polar aurora? If the interplanetary media or the solar wind, carry magnetic fields, then these fields can be of two kinds. Firstly, they may be magnetic lines of force dragged by the plasma from the Sun. Secondly, the interplanetary medium or the solar wind are capable of carrying closed magnetic lines of force which are not related to the Sun. When such fields approach the Earth, the high-latitude geomagnetic lines of force which previously passed through the equatorial plane on the boundary of the magnetosphere, may deform in such a way as to pass out of one geomagnetic poles, miss the equatorial plane, enter the interplanetary plasma, and after passing through a very considerable volume of this plasma reach the other geomagnetic pole. This will in effect amount to an attachment through the medium of magnetic lines of force of enormous regions of ionised interplanetary matter or of solar wind to the Earth's magnetosphere. As these extraneous magnetic fields depart from the Earth's neighbourhood, the original dipole field will be reestablished. Rapid variations in the configuration of the geomagnetic field will occur during the interaction. It is possible that energetic particles appear with a very high degree of probability on the boundary of the geomagnetic field during such deformations. If this is so, then the outer radiation belt is merely a temporary formation appearing during the quiet intervals between geomagnetic disturbances, and containing a small residue of energetic charged particles, which exist during the polar auroras but do not succeed in entering the lower atmosphere during this time. In this process the particles giving rise to the polar auroras originate in the plasma of the solar corpuscular streams flowing past the Earth.Under the action of a solar wind the geomagnetic field is compressed at the front and elongated at the rear. This resembles the original Chapman theory of geomagnetic storms more closely than any other theory. Since the elongated geomagnetic field on the night side of the Earth is of a lower intensity, it may be associated with the magnetic fields brought in by the incident medium right down to very great depths. This may be responsible for the observed displacement at the zone of the polar auroras towards lower geomagnetic latitudes at night.Translated by the Express Translation Servies, Wimbledon, London.     

Interaction of the moon with the earth's magnetosphere

The general characteristics and dimensions of the earth's magnetosphere, turbulent transition region, and shock wave are reviewed and examined with regard to their possible active or passive interaction with the moon. The moon may, in turn, have a wake either detectable by space experiments outside the terrestrial shock wave or capable of interacting with the earth's shock wave, wake, or magnetospheric tail. The length and detectability of such a lunar wake depend, among other factors, on the selenomagnetic field and flow characteristics of the solar wind. Direct experimental information on a lunar wake is scanty, being, in fact, limited to one supposed case recorded by the IMP-1 satellite. Some evidence has been claimed, on the other hand, for statistical relationships between geomagnetic disturbance observed at the surface and the age of the moon. These results, however, are partly conflicting with each other as regards the phase of the supposed monthly variations, and partly are lacking statistical significance or merely grazing the significance level. The proximity of the lunar period with the length of the solar rotation, as well as a yearly and half-yearly modulation of the quasi-persistent 27-day fluctuations of geomagnetic disturbance contribute to encumber the question, rendering it very difficult, with the records presently available, to free the supposed lunar effects from solar interference. It seems, therefore, recommendable to postpone a judgement on the reality of such effects.Contribución del Instituto Antártico Argentino No. 109.     

Large-scale electric field in the magnetosphere

A review is given on the distribution and origin of the large-scale electric field in the magnetosphere and its influence on the dynamical behavior of the magnetospheric plasma. Following a general discussion on the gross structure of the magnetosphere and its tail, two principal electric field systems are deduced from ground-based geomagnetic variations. One is responsible for the polar substorm, the DP 1 field, which is closely associated with the activation of the auroral electrojet. The other is responsible for the twin current vortices, the DP 2 field, and this represents the general convective system set up in the magnetospheric plasma.The origin of these magnetospheric electric fields is possibly resided in the domain of the solar wind interacting with the outer geomagnetic field. However, the mechanism, in which the energy is transferred, is still quite controversial. Several theories so far proposed are re-examined, and some modification of them are suggested to have a consistent understanding of these two types of electric fields. The effects of electric fields on magnetospheric plasma dynamics are described, such as the formation of the plasmapause, the acceleration and diffusion of energetic particles in the radiation belt.     

Nonlinear problems of physics of the geomagnetic pulsations

The current state of research involving manifestations of nonlinearity in geomagnetic pulsations is reviewed. Traditionally, the attention of researchers was focused on the effects of resonant interaction of geomagnetic pulsations with small groups of energetic particles, which actually means the study of the quasi-linear relaxation of radiation belt ions, the modulation of auroral electron fluxes, etc. The present review concentrates on the problem of the nonlinear effect influence of pulsations on the backgroud (cold) plasma and on the geomagnetic field. This kind of interaction results in a significant modification of the plasma distribution in the magnetosphere. Self-consistent wave structures—solitons and vortices may occur as well. Such nonlinear effects contribute to physics of geomagnetic pulsations and are also of fundamental importance for general physics. Another set of more narrow problems considered in the review, is related to phenomenological modeling of fluctuational and critical phenomena in the magnetosphere. The essence of our approach is to present the magnetosphere as a black box, whose properties should be determined by the statistical characteristics of its output signals. This approach to phenomenology can be a useful supplement to the methods of microscopic modeling aimed at detecting nonlinear manifestations of geomagnetic pulsations.     

The interplanetary medium and its interaction with the Earth's magnetosphere

This paper reviews the principal results of direct measurements of the plasma and magnetic field by spacecraft close to the Earth (within the heliocentric distance range 0.7–1.5 AU). The paper gives an interpretation of the results for periods of decrease, minimum and increase of the solar activity. The following problems are discussed: the interplanetary plasma (chemical composition, density, solar wind flow speed, temperature, temporal and spatial variation of these parameters), the interplanetary magnetic field (intensity, direction, fluctuations and its origin), some derived parameters characterizing the physical condition of the interplanetary medium; the quasi-stationary sector structure and its connection with solar and terrestrial phenomena; the magnetohydrodynamic discontinuities in the interplanetary medium (tangential discontinuities and collisionless shock waves); the solar magnetoplasma interaction with the geomagnetic field (the collisionless bow shock wave, the magnetosheath, the magnetopause, the Earth's magnetic tail, the internal magnetosphere characteristics), the connection between the geomagnetic activity and the interplanetary medium and magnetosphere parameters; peculiarities in behaviour of the interplanetary medium and magnetosphere during geomagnetic storms; energetic aspects of the geomagnetic storms.     

Considerations of Source,Transport, Acceleration/Heating and Loss Processes Responsible for Geomagnetic Tail Particle Populations

The relative importance of the two known substantive sources of magnetospheric particles, the solar wind and the ionosphere, remains largely undetermined throughout much of the magnetosphere. For the specific case of the geomagnetic tail however, the development of a remarkable family of models incorporating the kinetics of charged particle motion, has opened the possibility of determining relative strengths and geometries of the solar wind and ionospheric sources that are responsible for observed tail particle populations. Once source strengths and geometries are determined, transport paths and mechanisms can be identified, in turn leading to a determination of acceleration/heating mechanisms and locations. Loss processes then determine the quasi-equilibrium particle distributions in the tail. A quantitative understanding of the tail and its dynamics requires extensive, detailed comparisons of data and model results. Data obtained over the past two decades have led to the result that for energies at least above ~ 1 eV, both sources are well mixed throughout the tail and that the solar wind is the dominant source. New, unique data sets have provided the initial data comparisons with the models and show great promise in deconvolving source strengths and geometries and ultimately understanding the formation and behavior of the tail.     

Plasmasphere Response: Tutorial and Review of Recent Imaging Results

The plasmasphere is the cold, dense innermost region of the magnetosphere that is populated by upflow of ionospheric plasma along geomagnetic field lines. Driven directly by dayside magnetopause reconnection, enhanced sunward convection erodes the outer layers of the plasmasphere. Erosion causes the plasmasphere outer boundary, the plasmapause, to move inward on the nightside and outward on the dayside to form plumes of dense plasma extending sunward into the outer magnetosphere. Coupling between the inner magnetosphere and ionosphere can significantly modify the convection field, either enhancing sunward flows near dusk or shielding them on the night side. The plasmaspheric configuration plays a crucial role in the inner magnetosphere; wave-particle interactions inside the plasmasphere can cause scattering and loss of warmer space plasmas such as the ring current and radiation belts.     

Coupling between the outer magnetosphere and the high-latitude ionosphere

The coupling between the ionosphere and the outer magnetosphere depends on the topology of the geomagnetic field. Some aspects of the closed and open magnetospheric models are briefly discussed.The assumption that the geomagnetic field lines are equipotentials is critisized both on observational and on theoretical grounds. Measurements of H Doppler profiles, of precipitating particles above the ionosphere, and of charged particle densities in the magnetosphere indicate the existence of electric fields, E_\\, parallel with the magnetic field.Two different models of E_\\ are considered. Both models violate the condition of frozen-in magnetic fields. In one of them there are occasional transient electric field impulses along the field lines which cause precipitation splashes. The other model invokes electrostatic fields which vanish occasionally due to instabilities. This gives rise to precipitation splashes of about equal numbers of ions and electrons.The latter model seems to be favoured by known satellite data concerning the pitch angle distributions of electrons above the ionosphere.It is suggested that electric fields in space should be measured by satellites and rockets. Expected values of the fields in different regions of space are given.     

Transport of energetic solar particles on closed magnetospheric field lines

Whereas the entry mechanism of energetic solar particles into the open field line region of the magnetosphere is now a rather well understood process, transport processes of solar particles in the closed field line region are still unclear and under dispute. The main difficulty lies not only in the fact that different field models predict different behavior of the particles in the quasi-trapping region (e.g. cut-off latitude), but that dynamic changes of the magnetosphere as geomagnetic storms and substorms greatly influence the particle distribution. The present review tries to summarize the status of knowledge regarding solar proton behavior on closed magnetospheric field lines. Together with a presentation of recent measurements in the closed field line region relevant theoretical problems are discussed. They fall either under the study of single particle motion in different static magnetospheric configurations (due to different field models or due to real, e.g. ring current induced changes), or under the study of resonant interaction processes as pitch angle scattering and radial diffusion.Invited Lecture, Second Meeting of the European Geophysical Society, September 1974, Trieste, Italy.     

Auroral flares and solar flares

The morphology of development of auroral flares (magnetospheric substorms) for both electron and proton auroras is summarized, based on ground-based as well as rocket-borne and satellite-borne data with specific reference to the morphology of solar flares.The growth phase of an auroral flare is produced by the inflow of the solar wind energy into the magnetosphere by the reconnection mechanism between the solar wind field and the geomagnetic field, thus the neutral and plasma sheets in the magnetotail attaining their minimum thickness with a great stretch of the geomagnetic fluxes into the tail.The onset of the expansion phase of an auroral flare is represented by the break-up of electron and proton auroras, which is associated with strong auroral electrojets, a sudden increase in CNA, VLF hiss emissions and characteristic ULF emissions. The auroral break-up is triggered by the relaxation of stretched magnetic fluxes caused by cutting off of the tail fluxes at successively formed X-type neutral lines in the magnetotail.The resultant field-aligned currents flowing between the tailward magnetosphere and the polar ionosphere produce the field-aligned anomalous resistivity owing to the electrostatic ion-cyclotron waves; the electrical potential drop thus increased further accelerates precipitating charged particles with a result of the intensification of both the field-aligned currents and the auroral electrojet. It seems that the rapid building-up of this positive feedback system for precipitating charged particles is responsible for the break-up of an auroral flare.     

The Radiation Belt Storm Probes (RBSP) and Space Weather

Following the launch and commissioning of NASA’s Radiation Belt Storm Probes (RBSP) in 2012, space weather data will be generated and broadcast from the spacecraft in near real-time. The RBSP mission targets one part of the space weather chain: the very high energy electrons and ions magnetically trapped within Earth’s radiation belts. The understanding gained by RBSP will enable us to better predict the response of the radiation belts to solar storms in the future, and thereby protect space assets in the near-Earth environment. This chapter details the presently planned RBSP capabilities for generating and broadcasting near real-time space weather data, discusses the data products, the ground stations collecting the data, and the users/models that will incorporate the data into test-beds for radiation belt nowcasting and forecasting.     

Solar Weather Event Modelling and Prediction

Key drivers of solar weather and mid-term solar weather are reviewed by considering a selection of relevant physics- and statistics-based scientific models as well as a selection of related prediction models, in order to provide an updated operational scenario for space weather applications. The characteristics and outcomes of the considered scientific and prediction models indicate that they only partially cope with the complex nature of solar activity for the lack of a detailed knowledge of the underlying physics. This is indicated by the fact that, on one hand, scientific models based on chaos theory and non-linear dynamics reproduce better the observed features, and, on the other hand, that prediction models based on statistics and artificial neural networks perform better. To date, the solar weather prediction success at most time and spatial scales is far from being satisfactory, but the forthcoming ground- and space-based high-resolution observations can add fundamental tiles to the modelling and predicting frameworks as well as the application of advanced mathematical approaches in the analysis of diachronic solar observations, that are a must to provide comprehensive and homogeneous data sets.