五边平行进近冲突风险定量分析模型

针对飞机五边平行进近时飞行冲突,提出了一种五边平行进近飞行冲突定量分析模型。模型通过飞机在任意时刻的标称位置坐标与因不确定性因素导致的航迹偏移量之和,形成飞机任意时刻真实位置坐标,基于此推导出飞机在五边平行进近时冲突风险计算公式。在分析不确定性因素导致航迹偏离时,提出了一种基于布朗运动的随机过程来描述因干扰因素导致飞机随机运动的方法。在建立模型后,使用蒙特卡罗仿真方法计算了飞行冲突概率,结果理想。     

再论和谐社会的构建——基于功能冲突论视阈

作为对二战后美国社会矛盾激化、社会动荡的回应,在对社会学家关于社会冲突的种种观点反思与发展的基础上,科塞建立了功能冲突论。科塞的功能冲突论由冲突正功能的发挥条件、冲突正功能的具体内容、社会安全阀制度等内容组成。功能冲突论启示我们,在我国构建和谐社会的过程中,要正视、分析社会矛盾、社会冲突,构建社会安全阀制度,消除社会冲突产生的社会土壤。     

Flight safety measurements of UAVs in congested airspace

Describing spatial safety status is crucial for high-density air traffic involving multiple unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in a complex environment. A probabilistic approach is proposed to measure safety situation in congested airspace. The occupancy distribution of the airspace is represented with conflict probability between spatial positions and UAV. The concept of a safety envelope related to flight performance and response time is presented first instead of the conventional fixed-size protected zones around aircraft. Consequently, the conflict probability is performance-dependent, and effects of various UAVs on safety can be distinguished. The uncer-tainty of a UAV future position is explicitly accounted for as Brownian motion. An analytic approximate algorithm for the conflict probability is developed to decrease the computational consumption. The relationship between safety and flight performance are discussed for different response times and prediction intervals. To illustrate the applications of the approach, an experi-ment of three UAVs in formation flight is performed. In addition, an example of trajectory planning is simulated for one UAV flying over airspace where five UAVs exist. The validation of the approach shows its potential in guaranteeing flight safety in highly dynamic environment.     

Analysis on Potential Conflict Frequency of Intersected Air Routes in Terminal Airspace Design

In order to obtain accurate conflict risks in terminal airspace design, the concept and calculation model of potential conflict frequency for intersected routes are proposed. Conflict frequency is represented by the product of horizontal conflict frequency and vertical conflict probability. The horizontal conflict frequency is derived from the probability density distribution of conflicts in a period of time. Based on the recorded radar trajectory data, the concept and model of ROUTE distance are proposed, and the probability density function of aircraft height at a specified ROUTE distance is deduced by kernel density estimation. Furthermore, vertical conflict probability and its horizontal distribution are achieved. Examples of three intersected arrival and departure route design schemes are studied. Compared with scheme 1, the conflict frequency values of the other two improved schemes decrease to 53 % and 24%, respectively. The results show that the model can quantify potential conflict frequency of intersec ted routes.     

雷达监视下程序管制短期冲突告警算法研究

本文研究了一种基于航空器飞行轨迹线性外推冲突预测的短期冲突告警（STCA）算法,并给出算法的具体实现方案。仿真实验结果证明了算法的有效性,适用于雷达监视下的程序管制间隔标准和管制体制。     

传感器故障下的航天器状态监测与故障识别

针对航天器上传感器故障可能导致状态估计错误的问题,提出了一种基于证据理论的多传感器融合与故障识别方法。该方法采用证据距离与冲突质量的乘积来度量证据间的冲突大小。在证据的融合中先根据冲突大小计算每个证据的可信度,并根据可信度大小修正证据,再用D\|S规则进行融合。该冲突度量方法综合了证据间目标一致性与整体差异性的影响,在具有较强的不确定性和不可靠性的情况下,比仅采用证据距离或冲突质量来度量证据间冲突的大小更加准确。将其应用于微小卫星电源系统的状态监测,实验结果表明该方法可以有效地监测系统状态并正确地识别故障传感器,准确度优于其它方法。     

航空制造多项目优先级模糊综合评价方法

针对企业多项目并行执行时可能出现冲突,提出多项目冲突优先的模糊综合评价方法,通过建立优先级评定矩阵、分类分解评判因素的层次结构、建立评价集、确定因素权重,最后建立多项目优先级模糊综合评价矩阵,从而确定项目的优先级关系,实现项目冲突消解。并以某型飞机机翼和机身制造项目为例验证了方法的可行性和正确性。     

空域网格化方法及其在空管中的应用研究

传统的空域理论方法面临交通密度快速增长、空域管制对象复杂多类异构等一系列问题,研究空域数字化建模,发展出新的空中交通四维时空框架,在此基础上开展全新的空域与空中交通流量协同管理是当前的迫切需要。本文聚焦包括平面格网模型以及空域空间格网模型的空域网格化方法的总结,并对空域网格化方法的空管应用研究进行综述,在此基础上,对空域网格化及数字化研究重点及发展趋势进行综合分析。本文研究能够为空域网格化及数字化理论与应用的可持续发展提供科学指引。     

基于多信号流图与分支定界算法的故障诊断

针对实时在线故障诊断问题,提出了一种基于多信号流图和分支定界算法的故障诊断方法。通过建立多信号流图模型生成相关矩阵作为诊断知识,进而由相关矩阵以及观测向量产生冲突集,使最小诊断集的求解过程映射为整数规划问题;采用分支定界算法,通过对冲突集的分支、定界以及剪支得到故障诊断的最优解,从而避免了穷举问题造成的搜索"爆炸"。以某型机载燃油系统为对象对本文提出的算法进行了验证。结果表明:本文算法与常用的多信号流图诊断推理算法TEAMS-RT相比,算法速度相当,故障定位精度更高,很好地涵盖单故障以及多故障组合,可以胜任大规模复杂系统的故障诊断。