Progress in space weather predictions and applications

The methods of today’s predictions of space weather and effects are so much more advanced and yesterday’s statistical methods are now replaced by integrated knowledge-based neuro-computing models and MHD methods. Within the ESA Space Weather Programme Study a real-time forecast service has been developed for space weather and effects. This prototype is now being implemented for specific users. Today’s applications are not only so many more but also so much more advanced and user-oriented. A scientist needs real-time predictions of a global index as input for an MHD model calculating the radiation dose for EVAs. A power company system operator needs a prediction of the local value of a geomagnetically induced current. A science tourist needs to know whether or not aurora will occur. Soon we might even be able to predict the tropospheric climate changes and weather caused by the space weather.     

Cosmic Rays and Earth's Climate

During the last solar cycle the Earth's cloud cover underwent a modulation in phase with the cosmic ray flux. Assuming that there is a causal relationship between the two, it is expected and found that the Earth's temperature follows more closely decade variations in cosmic ray flux than other solar activity parameters. If the relationship is real the state of the Heliosphere affects the Earth's climate. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Statistical study of twist values of transequatorial loops and the relationship with flares

In this paper, the twist values of ‘S’-shape transequatorial loops (TLs) from 1991 to 2001 are calculated, GOES soft X-ray flares dataset of the active regions connected by these TLs are investigated. The result shows the twist value of the TLs has a weak relation with the flare flux. There is no clear correlation between the twist value and the distance between the footpoint of TLs and location of flare in the corresponding active regions.     

Solar Weather Event Modelling and Prediction

Key drivers of solar weather and mid-term solar weather are reviewed by considering a selection of relevant physics- and statistics-based scientific models as well as a selection of related prediction models, in order to provide an updated operational scenario for space weather applications. The characteristics and outcomes of the considered scientific and prediction models indicate that they only partially cope with the complex nature of solar activity for the lack of a detailed knowledge of the underlying physics. This is indicated by the fact that, on one hand, scientific models based on chaos theory and non-linear dynamics reproduce better the observed features, and, on the other hand, that prediction models based on statistics and artificial neural networks perform better. To date, the solar weather prediction success at most time and spatial scales is far from being satisfactory, but the forthcoming ground- and space-based high-resolution observations can add fundamental tiles to the modelling and predicting frameworks as well as the application of advanced mathematical approaches in the analysis of diachronic solar observations, that are a must to provide comprehensive and homogeneous data sets.     

上海,这座旖旎的城市

当我还是小男孩时,我的叔叔经常从远处来看我。我记得他在左臂上刺有一个锚。他过去是丹麦商船的海员,经常给我讲他曾经去过的那些神秘而陌生的地方。在30年代,乔根叔叔经常航行于哥本哈根到上海的商船航线,他经常说起这座令人讶异的城市——上海。在我家中的任何人,包括我的乔根叔叔,都无法想像有朝一日我会住在上海,并把上海当作我的第二故乡。     

Cosmic Rays,Clouds, and Climate

A correlation between a global average of low cloud cover and the flux of cosmic rays incident in the atmosphere has been observed during the last solar cycle. The ionising potential of Earth bound cosmic rays are modulated by the state of the heliosphere, while clouds play an important role in the Earth's radiation budget through trapping outgoing radiation and reflecting incoming radiation. If a physical link between these two features can be established, it would provide a mechanism linking solar activity and Earth's climate. Recent satellite observations have further revealed a correlation between cosmic ray flux and low cloud top temperature. The temperature of a cloud depends on the radiation properties determined by its droplet distribution. Low clouds are warm (>273K) and therefore consist of liquid water droplets. At typical atmospheric supersaturations (1%) a liquid cloud drop will only form in the presence of an aerosol, which acts as a condensation site. The droplet distribution of a cloud will then depend on the number of aerosols activated as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and the level of super saturation. Based on observational evidence it is argued that a mechanism to explain the cosmic ray-cloud link might be found through the role of atmospheric ionisation in aerosol production and/or growth. Observations of local aerosol increases in low cloud due to ship exhaust indicate that a small perturbation in atmospheric aerosol can have a major impact on low cloud radiative properties. Thus, a moderate influence on atmospheric aerosol distributions from cosmic ray ionisation would have a strong influence on the Earth's radiation budget. Historical evidence over the past 1000 years indicates that changes in climate have occurred in accord with variability in cosmic ray intensities. Such changes are in agreement with the sign of cloud radiative forcing associated with cosmic ray variability as estimated from satellite observations.     

On near wall measurements of wall bounded flows—The necessity of an accurate determination of the wall position

The present review paper is an account on the experimental determination of the wall position relative to the probe in wall-bounded turbulent flow studies. A thorough review on common measurement techniques as well as correction methods reveals, that there are a number of pitfalls, that—when not accounted for—can lead to wrong conclusions about the wall position and thereby also on the near-wall behaviour of mean and turbulence quantities. Employing the state-of-the-art databases from direct numerical simulations of wall-bounded turbulent flows various indirect methods have been tested and assessed in terms of their robustness and accuracy. It is also demonstrated that accurate measurements reaching the viscous sublayer are necessary in order to ensure a correctly deduced wall position, and dependent quantities as for instance the near-wall scaling of mean (e.g. Reynolds number dependence of the buffer region or the log law constants) and turbulence (e.g. the near-wall peak location of Reynolds stresses) quantities.In experiments using hot-wires near the wall it is well known that heat conduction between the hot-wire and the wall gives errors and mean velocity data from the viscous sublayer can usually not be used to determine the wall position. In this paper we introduce a new method which takes advantage of the similarity of the probability density distributions (pdf) in the near wall region. By using the high velocity data of the pdf, which is shown not to be affected by heat conduction, the heat conduction problem can be circumvented.Extensive appendices are included, describing the history and present knowledge about the scaling of the mean velocity in the near wall and overlap regions in wall bounded turbulent flows.     

Solar Influence on Earth's Climate

An increasing number of studies indicate that variations in solar activity have had a significant influence on Earth's climate. However, the mechanisms responsible for a solar influence are still not known. One possibility is that atmospheric transparency is influenced by changing cloud properties via cosmic ray ionisation (the latter being modulated by solar activity). Support for this idea is found from satellite observations of cloud cover. Such data have revealed a striking correlation between the intensity of galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and low liquid clouds (<3.2 km). GCR are responsible for nearly all ionisation in the atmosphere below 35 km. One mechanism could involve ion-induced formation of aerosol particles (diameter range, 0.001–1.0 μm) that can act as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). A systematic variation in the properties of CCN will affect the cloud droplet distribution and thereby influence the radiative properties of clouds. If the GCR-Cloud link is confirmed variations in galactic cosmic ray flux, caused by changes in solar activity and the space environment, could influence Earth's radiation budget. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.