Real-Time Specifications of the Geospace Environment

We report the recent progress in our joint program of real-time mapping of ionospheric electric fields and currents and field-aligned currents through the Geospace Environment Data Analysis System (GEDAS) at the Solar-Terrestrial Environment Laboratory and similar computer systems in the world. Data from individual ground magnetometers as well as from the solar wind are collected by these systems and are used as input for the KRM and AMIE magnetogram-inversion algorithms, which calculate the two-dimensional distribution of the ionospheric parameters. One of the goals of this program is to specify the solar-terrestrial environment in terms of ionospheric processes, providing the scientific community with more than what geomagnetic activity indices and statistical models provide. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

A Comparison of Ground Level Event e/p and Fe/O Ratios with Associated Solar Flare and CME Characteristics

Solar energetic particle (SEP) events reaching rigidities >1 GV are observed at 1?AU as ground-level events (GLEs). They are considered to be extreme cases of gradual SEP events, produced by shocks driven by wide and fast CMEs that are usually associated with long-duration (>1 hour) soft X-ray (SXR) flares. However, some large gradual SEP events, including GLEs, are associated with flares of short-duration (<1 hour) timescales comparable to those of flares seen with impulsive, low-energy SEP events with enhanced charge states, heavy-element abundances, and e/p ratios. The association of some GLEs with short-duration SXR events challenges us to understand the GLE event-to-event variation with SXR durations and whether it truly reflects the nature of the particle acceleration processes or simply the characteristics of the solar regions from which large, fast CMEs arise. We examine statistically the associated flare, active region (AR), and CME characteristics of ～40?GLEs observed since 1976 to determine how the GLE e/p and Fe/O ratios, each measured in two energy ranges, depend on those characteristics. The abundance ratios trend weakly to lower, more coronal, and less scattered values with increasing flare timescales, thermal and nonthermal peak fluxes, and measures of source AR sizes. These results and the wide range of solar longitude connections for GLEs with high abundance ratios argue against a significant role for flare effects in the GLEs. We suggest that GLE SEPs are accelerated predominately in CME-driven shocks and that a coupling of flare size and timescales with CME properties could explain the SEP abundance correlations with flare properties.     

Solar Drivers of 11-yr and Long-Term Cosmic Ray Modulation

In the current paradigm for the modulation of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs), diffusion is taken to be the dominant process during solar maxima while drift dominates at minima. Observations during the recent solar minimum challenge the pre-eminence of drift at such times. In 2009, the ～2 GV GCR intensity measured by the Newark neutron monitor increased by ～5% relative to its maximum value two cycles earlier even though the average tilt angle in 2009 was slightly larger than that in 1986 (～20° vs. ～14°), while solar wind B was significantly lower (～3.9 nT vs. ～5.4 nT). A decomposition of the solar wind into high-speed streams, slow solar wind, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs; including post-shock flows) reveals that the Sun transmits its message of changing magnetic field (diffusion coefficient) to the heliosphere primarily through CMEs at solar maximum and high-speed streams at solar minimum. Long-term reconstructions of solar wind B are in general agreement for the ～1900-present interval and can be used to reliably estimate GCR intensity over this period. For earlier epochs, however, a recent ¹⁰Be-based reconstruction covering the past ～10⁴ years shows nine abrupt and relatively short-lived drops of B to ?0 nT, with the first of these corresponding to the Spörer minimum. Such dips are at variance with the recent suggestion that B has a minimum or floor value of ～2.8 nT. A floor in solar wind B implies a ceiling in the GCR intensity (a permanent modulation of the local interstellar spectrum) at a given energy/rigidity. The 30–40% increase in the intensity of 2.5 GV electrons observed by Ulysses during the recent solar minimum raises an interesting paradox that will need to be resolved.     

Evolution of the Sunspot Number and Solar Wind $$ Time Series

The past two decades have witnessed significant changes in our knowledge of long-term solar and solar wind activity. The sunspot number time series (1700-present) developed by Rudolf Wolf during the second half of the 19th century was revised and extended by the group sunspot number series (1610–1995) of Hoyt and Schatten during the 1990s. The group sunspot number is significantly lower than the Wolf series before ～1885. An effort from 2011–2015 to understand and remove differences between these two series via a series of workshops had the unintended consequence of prompting several alternative constructions of the sunspot number. Thus it has been necessary to expand and extend the sunspot number reconciliation process. On the solar wind side, after a decade of controversy, an ISSI International Team used geomagnetic and sunspot data to obtain a high-confidence time series of the solar wind magnetic field strength (\(B\)) from 1750-present that can be compared with two independent long-term (> ～600 year) series of annual \(B\)-values based on cosmogenic nuclides. In this paper, we trace the twists and turns leading to our current understanding of long-term solar and solar wind activity.