Modulation of Cosmic Rays in the Heliosphere From Solar Minimum to Maximum: a Theoretical Perspective

The modulation of galactic cosmic rays in the heliosphere seems to be dominated by four major mechanisms: convection, diffusion, drifts (gradient, curvature and current sheet), and adiabatic energy losses. In this regard the global structure of the solar wind, the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF), the current sheet (HCS), and that of the heliosphere itself play major roles. Individually, the four mechanisms are well understood, but in combination, the complexity increases significantly especially their evolvement with time - as a function of solar activity. The Ulysses observations contributed significantly during the past solar minimum modulation period to establish the relative importance of these major mechanisms, leading to renewed interest in developing more sophisticated numerical models, and in the underlying physics, e.g., what determines the diffusion tensor. With increased solar activity, the relative contributions of the mentioned mechanisms change, but how they change and what causes these changes over an 11-year solar cycle is not well understood. It can therefore be expected that present and forthcoming observations during solar maximum activity will again produce very important insights into the causes of long-term modulation. In this paper the basic theory of solar modulation is reviewed for galactic cosmic rays. The influence of the Ulysses observations on the development of the basic theory and numerical models are discussed, especially those that have challenged the theory and models. Model-based predictions are shown for what might be encountered during the next solar minimum. Lastly, modulation theory and modelling are discussed for periods of maximum solar activity when a global reorganization of the HMF, and the HCS, occurs. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Modelling and observing Jovian electron propagation times in the inner heliosphere

The propagation of Jovian electrons in interplanetary space was modelled by solving the relevant transport equation numerically through the use of stochastic differential equations. This approach allows us to calculate, for the first time, the propagation time of Jovian electrons from the Jovian magnetosphere to Earth. Using observed quiet-time increases of electron intensities at Earth, we also derive values for this quantity. Comparing the modelled and observed propagation times we can gauge the magnitude of the transport parameters sufficiently to place a limit on the 6 MeV Jovian electron flux reaching Earth. We also investigate how the modelled propagation time, and corresponding Jovian electron flux, varies with the well-known ∼13 month periodicity in the magnetic connectivity of Earth and Jupiter. The results show that the Jovian electron intensity varies by a factor of ∼10 during this cycle of magnetic connectivity.     

Cosmic ray flux at the Earth in a variable heliosphere

In recent years the variability of the cosmic ray flux has become one of the main issues not only for the interpretation of the abundances of cosmogenic isotopes in cosmochronic archives like, e.g., ice cores, but also for its potential impact on the terrestrial climate. It has been re-emphasized that the cosmic ray flux is not only varying due to the solar activity-induced changes of the solar wind but also in response to the changing state of the interstellar medium surrounding the heliosphere. We demonstrate the significance of these external boundary condition changes along the galactic orbit of the Sun for the flux as well as spectra of cosmic rays. Such interstellar–terrestrial relations are a major topic of the International Heliophysical Year 2007.     

Nighttime ionosphere–thermosphere coupling observed during an intense geomagnetic storm

The electrodynamics of the ionosphere in the tropical region presents various scientific aspects, which remain subject of intensive investigations and debates by the scientific community. During the year 2002, in a joint project between the Universidade do Vale do Paraíba (UNIVAP) and Universidade Luterana do Brasil (ULBRA), a chain of three Canadian Advanced Digital Ionosondes (CADIs) was established nearly along the geomagnetic meridian direction, for tropical ionospheric studies, such as, changes and response due to geomagnetic disturbances and thermosphere–ionosphere coupling and the generation and dynamics of ionospheric irregularities, in the Brazilian sector. The locations of the three ionosondes stations are São José dos Campos (23.2°S, 45.9°W, dip latitude 17.6°S – under the southern crest of equatorial ionospheric anomaly), Palmas (10.2°S, 48.2°W, dip latitude 5.5°S – near the magnetic equator) and Manaus (2.9°S, 60.0°W, dip latitude 6.4°N – between the geographic and geomagnetic dip equators). It should be pointed out that Palmas and Manaus are located on the opposite sides of the magnetic equator but both are south of the geographic equator. The three CADIs work in time-synchronized mode and obtain ionograms every 5 min. This configuration of the ionospheric sounding stations allowed us to study the F-region dynamics during geomagnetically disturbed period in the meridional direction. Just after the installation and testing of the three CADIs, on September 05, 2002 a coronal mass ejection (CME) left the Sun and about 2 days after the CME left the Sun, it reached the Earth’s magnetosphere and complex and multi step events took place during the period September 07–09. In the study we note that the equatorial stations located north (Manaus, dip latitude 6.4°N) and south (Palmas, dip latitude 5.5°S) of the dip equator presented significant F-layer height asymmetries during the storm main phase. In addition, the low-latitude station SJC (dip latitude 17.6°S) presented decrease in the F-layer densities (negative phase), whereas Palmas presented increase in the F-layer densities (positive phase) during the main phase. This was followed by positive phase at both the stations. During the first night of the recovery phase a strong formation and evolution of large-scale ionospheric irregularities (equatorial spread-F (ESF)) was observed, but on the second night of the recovery phase, there was strong and almost simultaneous sporadic E (Es) formation at all three stations. During the presence of Es, spread-F formation is not observed, indicating the suppression of spread-F, possibly by sporadic E.     

Time-Dependent 2d Model Compared with Observations During the 1974 Mini Cycle

The 1974 mini-cycle is a medium term cosmic ray modulation event with about one year duration. It occurred in an A>0 epoch of solar magnetic polarity during conditions of low activity, but with an increase in the latitudinal extent of the heliospheric current sheet (tilt angle α) and the magnitude B of the heliospheric magnetic field. This cosmic ray decrease can be used to test the hypothesis that such large scale decreases (mini cycles) may be caused primarily by a combination of changes in α and B. For this purpose a fully time-dependent 2D model of solar modulation is used, which includes the effects of global and current sheet drifts, and anisotropic perpendicular diffusion. Such models have been used successfully to describe the proton energy spectrum as well as the radial and latitudinal gradients near 1 AU. Comparison of the model solutions with the observed decrease for 1.8 GV protons allows us to study the combined influence of variable drift and diffusion effects throughout the event. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Dream project: Applications of earth observations to disaster risk management

The field of disaster risk management is relatively new and takes a structured approach to managing uncertainty related to the threat of natural and man-made disasters. Disaster risk management consists primarily of risk assessment and the development of strategies to mitigate disaster risk. This paper will discuss how increasing both Earth observation data and information technology capabilities can contribute to disaster risk management, particularly in Belize. The paper presents the results and recommendations of a project conducted by an international and interdisciplinary team of experts at the 2009 session of the International Space University in NASA Ames Research Center (California, USA). The aim is to explore the combination of current, planned and potential space-aided, airborne, and ground-based Earth observation tools, the emergence of powerful new web-based and mobile data management tools, and how this combination can support and improve the emerging field of disaster risk management. The starting point of the project was the World Bank’s Comprehensive Approach to Probabilistic Risk Assessment (CAPRA) program, focused in Central America. This program was used as a test bed to analyze current space technologies used in risk management and develop new strategies and tools to be applied in other regions around the world.     

Consequences of the application of the streamer fluid model to the study of the sprite inception mechanism

We present the results of a streamer-fluid model used to investigate the electrodynamical coupling between the troposphere and upper atmosphere due to the penetration of lightning electric fields into the mesosphere and the lower ionosphere, generating sprites. The model solves the continuity equation for electrons and ions coupled to Poisson equation. The dominant physical response of the atmosphere is the formation of a screening-ionization wave. The wave shields the atmosphere above it from the action of the lightning field and, together with the conductivity reduction below it due to attachment, the wave amplifies the total field below it, allowing for the penetration of intense electric fields in the mesosphere as it propagates downwards into regions of higher density that compress the wave. This is the key physical mechanism for sprite inception. We evaluated the effects of the thundercloud charge geometry, lightning current waveshape, atmospheric conductivity, via different electron density profiles, and the effect of ionization, attachment and electron mobility coefficients in the electrical breakdown process, related to halo production, and sprite streamer initiation. The results showed that electrons with higher mobility are more efficient in shielding the lightning electric field before breakdown, causing delay, and they contribute to the formation of the streamer seed after breakdown, anticipating the sprite streamer inception. Similarly, a higher effective ionization rate, produced by modifications in the attachment and ionization coefficients, anticipates sprite inception. The simulations with 6 different electron density profiles, and therefore conductivities, spanning 4 orders of magnitude, showed that the altitude of breakdown and sprite initiation, as well as their time delays from the lightning discharge are directly related to atmospheric conductivity: higher conductivities produce halo and sprite inception at lower altitudes with longer delays and may hinder sprite formation. We document that variations of 30 times in the lightning current leads to sprite initiation altitudes in the range 66.0–73.5 km, with delays between 1.550 and 34.500 ms, while variations of 4 orders of magnitude in the conductivity profile lead to initiation altitudes 61.0–70.6 km, with delays in the range 3.825–9.825 ms. Consequently, we suggest that lightning characteristics dominate over atmospheric parameters in determining sprites’ initiation altitude and delay. The simulation of a −CG, with a constant current of 30 kA, did not produce a sprite seed, confirming an asymmetry in the response of the atmosphere to positive and negative lightning. This is due to the free electron drift direction that is away from the screening ionization wave, preventing the formation of the streamer seed for the great majority of −CGs. The same does not apply to halos, which depend on the occurrence of breakdown and can be produced by discharges of both polarities.     

Latitudinal features of Total Electron Content over the African and European longitude sector following the St. Patrick’s day storm of 2015

GNSS TEC values have been obtained from 18 stations distributed from the magnetic equator to nearly 80°N magnetic dip in the African and west-European longitude sector corresponding to the March 17–18, 2015 geomagnetic storm. Significantly depleted ionosphere have been observed at stations north of 50°N geographic on March 18, 2015 following the above storm over a longitude swath 11.9°–21°E covering the Eastern Africa and Western European longitude sector. High ROTI values were noted on March 17^th at locations around 80°N magnetic dip. Two prominent peaks in PCN were noted around 09:00 UT and 14:00 UT on March 17, 2015 and around 15:00 UT on March 18, 2015. Daytime thermospheric (O/N₂) ratio was markedly less on March 18th at latitudes above 60°N geographic which is suggested to be the major driver behind depleted high latitude ionosphere during the recovery phase of the storm on March 18, 2015.     

Development of a long cycle life sealed nickel-zinc battery forhigh energy-density applications

Nickel-zinc battery technology is being developed for commercial applications requiring high energy density and high power capability. Development cells have demonstrated the ability to deliver over 60 Watt-hours per kilogram at the one hour rate. Cycle life has been improved to more than 600 cycles at 80% depth of discharge by using a patented, reduced solubility zinc electrode and an improved sealed cell design. More than 8000 charge/discharge cycles at 10% depth-of-discharge have been completed. Large quantities of sealed prismatic cells have been manufactured, including a 140 cell, 220 V battery for a hybrid electric vehicle (HEV)