Using high-energy proton fluence to improve risk prediction for consequences of solar particle events

The potential for exposure to large solar particle events (SPEs) with high energy levels is a major concern during interplanetary transfer and extra-vehicular activities (EVAs) on the lunar and Mars surface. Previously, we have used data from the last 5 solar cycles to estimate percentiles of dose to a typical blood-forming organ (BFO) for a hypothetical astronaut in a nominally shielded spacecraft during a 120-d lunar mission. As part of this process, we made use of complete energy spectra for 34 large historical SPEs to calculate what the BFO mGy-Eq dose would have been in the above lunar scenario for each SPE. From these calculated doses, we then developed a prediction model for BFO dose based solely on an assumed value of integrated fluence above 30 MeV (Φ₃₀) for an otherwise unspecified future SPE. In this study, we reasoned that since BFO dose is determined more by protons with higher energies than by those with lower energies, more accurate BFO dose prediction models could be developed using integrated fluence above 60 (Φ₆₀) and above 100 MeV (Φ₁₀₀) as predictors instead of Φ₃₀. However to calculate the unconditional probability of a BFO dose exceeding a pre-specified limit (“BFO dose risk”), one must also take into account the distribution of the predictor (Φ_30,Φ₆₀, or Φ₁₀₀), as estimated from historical SPEs. But Φ₆₀ and Φ₁₀₀ have more variability, and less available historical information on which to estimate their distributions over many SPE occurrences, than does Φ₃₀. Therefore, when estimating BFO dose risk there is a tradeoff between increased BFO dose prediction at a given energy threshold and decreased accuracy of models for describing the distribution of that threshold over future SPEs as the threshold increases. Even when taking the second of these two factors into account, we still arrived at the conclusion that overall prediction improves as the energy level threshold increases from 30 to 60 to 100 MeV. These results can be applied to the development of approaches to improve radiation protection of astronauts and the optimization of mission planning for future space missions.     

基于TARAM的民用飞机结构类事件的持续运营安全评估

在民用飞机持续适航阶段,需要开展风险评估工作,以保证运营安全水平能够维持在可接受的范围之内。基于运输类飞机风险评估方法（TARAM）及风险准则,考虑不同的结构裂纹尺寸,给出基于机队故障数、临界裂纹、特征寿命的机队风险值计算方法;以机身增压边界结构受到循环增压载荷的疲劳裂纹为例,进行持续安全风险评估,计算该事件的风险水平,以及纠正措施实施时限;并通过使用纠正措施实施时限内个人风险进行验证。结果表明：个人风险低于风险阈值,本文制定的纠正措施及实施时限满足机队持续安全要求,可保证该机队的运行安全。     

我国网络银行风险及其管理措施

网络银行具有超越时空、创新发展快、运作工具有别于传统银行等特点。网络银行能否顺畅发展,一个关键问题是如何防范和控制风险。网络银行的风险主要包括金融风险和业务风险等方面。金融风险所包含的信用风险是网络银行最大的风险,而市场风险对网络银行的冲击也越来越显著。加强我国网络银行的风险管理,主要通过以下措施来实现：（1）强化网络银行的信誉管理,完善社会信用体系;（2）营造良好的市场发展环境,控制市场交易风险;（3）加强银行业务监管,减少银行操作风险。     

Human response to high-background radiation environments on Earth and in space

The main long-term objective of the space exploration program is the colonization of the planets of the Solar System. The high cosmic radiation equivalent dose rate represents an inescapable problem for the safe establishment of permanent human settlements on these planets. The unshielded equivalent dose rate on Mars ranges between 100 and 200 mSv/year, depending on the Solar cycle and altitude, and can reach values as high as 360 mSv/year on the Moon. The average annual effective dose on Earth is about 3 mSv, nearly 85% of which comes from natural background radiation, reduced to less than 1 mSv if man-made sources and the internal exposure to Rn daughters are excluded. However, some areas on Earth display anomalously high levels of background radiation, as is the case with thorium-rich monazite bearing sand deposits where values 200–400 times higher than the world average can be found. About 2% of the world’s population live above 3 km and receive a disproportionate 10% of the annual effective collective dose due to cosmic radiation, with a net contribution to effective dose by the neutron component which is 3–4 fold that at sea level. Thus far, epidemiological studies have failed to show any adverse health effects in the populations living in these terrestrial high-background radiation areas (HBRA), which provide an unique opportunity to study the health implications of an environment that, as closely as possibly achievable on Earth, resembles the chronic exposure of future space colonists to higher-than-normal levels of ionizing radiation. Chromosomal aberrations in the peripheral blood lymphocytes from the HBRA residents have been measured in several studies because chromosomal damage represents an early biomarker of cancer risk. Similar cytogenetic studies have been recently performed in a cohort of astronauts involved in single or repeated space flights over many years. The cytogenetic findings in populations exposed to high dose-rate background radiation on Earth or in space will be discussed.     

一种复杂系统风险概率评估方法

对有限样本条件下的复杂系统风险发生概率评估问题,提出了小样本评估小概率事件的建模方法,通过非线性函数逼近累积概率与临界参数极值之间的映射关系.建立了风险概率评估数学模型,通过非线性回归方法得到了风险概率评估基本模型.对原始数据在评估模型中产生的误差作为目标函数,建立概率评估优化模型.并采用改进遗传算法对分布参数进行优化计算.以飞行安全为例,实现了有限样本情况下的飞行风险概率的计算,并通过最优逼近函数提高了计算精度.      

未来太空气象预报系统一瞥

文章从几个方面对太空气象预报系统进行了简单的介绍,包括:当前太空气象预报系统的水平;模板预报方案实施细则;实施模板方案的难度与可行性。作者关心我国对太空气象预报系统的研究,为进一步降低航天器发射风险、提高航天器运行可靠性而献计献策。     

航天器的风险管理及其在环境试验中的应用

风险管理是航天计划/项目管理中的重要组成部分,并已在国外的航天型号研制中受到重视.文章介绍了国外在航天项目中对风险管理的要求和风险管理过程,同时着重介绍了风险管理在环境试验工作中的应用实例.     

低空风切变危险尺度研究

飞机在低空风切变中飞行的危险性评估尺度是机载低空风切变探测、告警、回避系统设计中的关键之一。本文从飞行动力学的基本方程组出发,根据能量高度的概念,从理论上导出了低空风切变对飞行安全的危险尺度,经研究,风切变的危险主要表现在水平风的加速度U_wg和垂直风速度W_wg上。文中研究了U_wg和w_wg对危险尺度的定性、定量关系,提出了用水平风加速度这个目前机载设备能探测的参数来评估风切变的危险程度,为前视式机载低空风变探测传感器的设计提供了基础。     

飞行系统中人的可靠性评估

人的可靠性是个非常活跃的研究领域。本文从航空事件的历史数据出发,论证了飞行系统中人员失误率评估的重要性和迫切性。综述了近年来国内外人的可靠性分析的方法和模型,它们是HCR,CSE,NRC,TESEO,SLIM和灰色模型;评述了各种模型的适用条件及优劣,特别是文中提出的灰色模型将是人员失误率评估中最为有效的方法。同时也为飞行系统的系统配置、座舱资源管理等提出了新的设计考虑因素。     

空间碎片失效概率分析软件标准的校验

空间碎片失效概率分析软件是“空间碎片防护设计软件包”的重要组成部分。文章简单介绍了失效概率分析软件的组成结构,并根据国际标准对失效概率分析软件进行详细校验。