Modeling the effects of green alternative on heat island mitigation of a meso level town,West Bengal,India

Urban heat island (UHI) is emerged as a ubiquitous phenomenon that affects the outdoor thermal comfort. Hence urban microclimatic studies using numeric simulation software to find out adaption strategies are attracting the great attention of researchers and policymaker. Number of scientists carried out their research on this topic using different tools and technique whereas ENVI-met model is the most widely used simulation tools. The present study intended to examine the implication of green infrastructure of the town on enhanced microclimatic condition and to evaluate the best suitable mitigation strategy modelling cool city with ENVI-met software (V4). Five greening condition such as existing UHI condition (C1), 100% greening of roof (C2), 100% greening of roof and walls (C3), 50% greening of roof and walls (C4) and: Plantation at suitable area with 50% greening of roof and walls (C5) have been taken into consideration for the microclimate simulation for all three selected sites. Among these five conditions, C3 for the open mid-rise and compact low-rise, C5 for the open low-rise are identified as one of the most suitable strategies which can reduce the air temperature of peak hours by 2.6 °C, 1.33 °C and 1.87 °C respectively. These models are validated by simple linear regression between simulated and existing air temperature in case of existing UHI condition (C1) and in all the cases coefficient of determination value is high such as for open mid-rise, compact low-rise and open low-rise, it is 0.92, 0.92 and 0.75 respectively. Therefore it can be concluded that the application of those strategies can improve the urban thermal environment as well as the outdoor thermal comfort of English bazaar Town and its surroundings.     

金融工程对我国国有银行信用风险管理的启示

多年来信用风险都是各国银行所面临的主要风险,由于历史的原因我国国有银行的信用风险管理问题显得更为突出.针对国有银行信用风险管理现状,引入最新的金融工程的方法和理念,从技术创新和制度创新的角度对国有银行的信用风险管理提出建议.     

高拱坝失效模式与失效概率

为克服高拱坝确定性安全评价中不考虑随机性、不进行风险分析的弊端,提出研究超静定结构高拱坝的失效模式、利用失效概率与失效风险值对高拱坝进行风险评价。在分析洪水、地震和材料老化等造成高拱坝失效原因的基础上,利用故障树分析法探索出高拱坝具有失稳溃坝、剪滑垮坝、超量开裂以及人为毁坝等4种主要失效模式;从产生载荷参数随机数、获取随机变量的分布规律和建立失效模式的状态函数等方面研究了高拱坝单个失效模式与系统失效概率的计算方法。计算了某高拱坝剪滑失效模式的失效概率。     

Collision Risk Mitigation in Geostationary Orbit

The short- and long-term effects of spacecraft explosions, as a function of the end-of-life re-orbit altitude above the geostationary orbit (GEO), were analyzed in terms of their additional contribution to the debris flux in the GEO ring. The simulated debris clouds were propagated for 72yrs, taking into account all the relevant orbital perturbations.The results obtained show that 6–7 additional explosions in GEO would be sufficient, in the long term, to double the current collision risk with sizable objects in GEO. Unfortunately, even if spacecraft were to re-orbit between 300 and 500km above GEO, this would not significantly improve the situation. In fact, an altitude increase of at least 2000km would have to be adopted to reduce by one order of magnitude the long-term risk of collision among geostationary satellites and explosion fragments. The optimal debris mitigation strategy should be a compromise between the reliability and effectiveness of spacecraft end-of-life passivation, the re-orbit altitude and the acceptable debris background in the GEO ring. However, for as long as the re-orbit altitudes currently used are less than 500km above GEO, new spacecraft explosions must be avoided in order to preserve the geostationary environment over the long term.     

航天器舷窗玻璃超高速撞击损伤与M/OD撞击风险评估

用北京卫星环境工程研究所的18mm口径二级轻气炮(TLGG)和20 J激光驱动微小飞片装置(LDFF-20)对用作航天器舷窗玻璃的熔融石英玻璃的超高速撞击损伤特性进行了实验研究和分析.其中,TLGG发射的球形铝弹丸直径分别为1 mm和3 mm,速度2～6.5 km/s;LDFF-20发射的圆柱形飞片厚度7 μm,直径1 mm,速度1～8.3 km/s.撞击结果为:对12 mm厚的熔融石英玻璃,直径为3mm的弹丸甚至在2.8 km/s的低速下就将其穿透,而直径为1 mm的弹丸在6.5km/s的高速下没有穿透,这说明弹丸直径对撞击损伤特性有很强的影响;LDFF-20发射的微小飞片的撞击仅在玻璃表面产生很浅的凹坑,没有裂纹产生,但微小飞片的累积撞击损伤明显地降低了玻璃的透光性.实验初步获得了侵彻深度PC、侵彻直径D1与弹丸撞击速度Vp、弹丸质量Mp之间的经验关系.依据实验结果和目前的微流星体/空间碎片(M/OD)环境工程模型,建议对于高度为400 km、轨道倾角42°、寿命为3年的典型航天器,其舷窗玻璃的临界安全(非穿透)厚度至少为12mm.     

基于Convexity模型的航空公司利率风险管理

国际性特征日趋明显的中国航空公司正面临着金融市场上的诸多不确定性,其中利率风险日益凸显.将Convexity模型这一在西方发达国家较为成熟的风险管理工具引入中国,并将其应用到中国航空公司的风险管理实践,对利率风险进行了极为精确的量化评估,最后给出了相应的规避方法.     

基于支持向量机回归的电力负荷预测研究

不同于传统的基于经验风险最小化的回归方法,支持向量机回归方法基于结构风险最小化准则.与神经网络相比,该方法在解决学习精度和推广性之间的矛盾方面有明显的优势.本文以城市电力负荷预测为应用背景,对比研究了基于统计学习理论的支持向量机回归方法和神经网络方法.预测结果显示支持向量机可能是一种非常有前景的预测工具,其预测精度明显好于神经网络.     

大型复杂仿真系统模型验证的有效途径

根据大型复杂仿真系统的特点,提出了利用贝叶斯(Bayes)理论对大型复杂仿真系统模型进行验证的方法,建立了检验建模与仿真(M＆S)中的复杂假设的规则及实现算法,经过部分实例证明此方法是一种准确、通用和有效的方法。     

一种多目标随机决策方法及其应用

本文通过引进决策方案的可行度和决策者参考目标水平的满足度等概念,提出了一种不确定条件下的多目标随机决策方法——交互式参考目标满足度与可行度决策分析中,取得了较好的效果。     

论BOT项目中的风险分担及风险管理

文章从项目公司的角度出发,将BOT项目中的风险根据项目参与方担负风险的大小划分为三类,并讨论了权益投资者的风险分担问题,认为风险分担和风险管理是项目成功的关键,之后在BOT项目的四个阶段中,就项目的风险管理进行了分析和探讨.