Strong geomagnetic activity forecast by neural networks under dominant southern orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field

The paper deals with the relation of the southern orientation of the north–south component _Bz$B_z$ of the interplanetary magnetic field to geomagnetic activity (GA) and subsequently a method is suggested of using the found facts to forecast potentially dangerous high GA. We have found that on a day with very high GA hourly averages of _Bz$B_z$ with a negative sign occur at least 16 times in typical cases. Since it is very difficult to estimate the orientation of _Bz$B_z$ in the immediate vicinity of the Earth one day or even a few days in advance, we have suggested using a neural-network model, which assumes the worse of the possibilities to forecast the danger of high GA – the dominant southern orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field. The input quantities of the proposed model were information about X-ray flares, type II and IV radio bursts as well as information about coronal mass ejections (CME). In comparing the GA forecasts with observations, we obtain values of the Hanssen–Kuiper skill score ranging from 0.463 to 0.727, which are usual values for similar forecasts of space weather. The proposed model provides forecasts of potentially dangerous high geomagnetic activity should the interplanetary CME (ICME), the originator of geomagnetic storms, hit the Earth under the most unfavorable configuration of cosmic magnetic fields. We cannot know in advance whether the unfavorable configuration is going to occur or not; we just know that it will occur with the probability of 31%.     

Intra-annual variations of the thermospheric density at 400 km altitude from 1996 to 2006

We investigate the intra-annual variations of globally averaged thermospheric density at 400 km altitude from 1996 to 2006 by using Artificial Neural Network Method (ANNM). The results indicate that thermospheric density is governed by solar activity, and the absolute error of our model is 13.67%, less than NRLMSISE-00 model. Fourier representation can catch the intra-annual variations more accurately than NRLMSISE-00 model and JB2008 model especially during 2002. We find that the Autumn maximum is slightly greater than Spring maximum during solar minimum, while the reverse is correct during solar maximum. There is a strong linear relation between solar activity and the amplitude of annual/semiannual variations, and the correlation coefficients are 0.9534 and 0.9424, respectively. Moreover, the amplitude ratio of the annual to semiannual variation is about 1.3 averaged, and changes in different years, but it has little relation with solar activity. Besides that, the amplitude of annual variation is larger than semiannual variation during 1996 and 2006 except 1998 and 2000. The relative error of NRLMSISE-00 model is 14.95%, decreasing to 12.49% after revising, and the correlation coefficients between this empirical model and its improved results and the observation are 0.8185 and 0.9210, respectively. Finally, we suggest the revised version of MSIS series of model should use the Fourier representation to express the intra-annual variations.     

Rapid design and optimization of low-thrust rendezvous/interception trajectory for asteroid deflection missions

Asteroid deflection techniques are essential in order to protect the Earth from catastrophic impacts by hazardous asteroids. Rapid design and optimization of low-thrust rendezvous/interception trajectories is considered as one of the key technologies to successfully deflect potentially hazardous asteroids. In this paper, we address a general framework for the rapid design and optimization of low-thrust rendezvous/interception trajectories for future asteroid deflection missions. The design and optimization process includes three closely associated steps. Firstly, shape-based approaches and genetic algorithm (GA) are adopted to perform preliminary design, which provides a reasonable initial guess for subsequent accurate optimization. Secondly, Radau pseudospectral method is utilized to transcribe the low-thrust trajectory optimization problem into a discrete nonlinear programming (NLP) problem. Finally, sequential quadratic programming (SQP) is used to efficiently solve the nonlinear programming problem and obtain the optimal low-thrust rendezvous/interception trajectories. The rapid design and optimization algorithms developed in this paper are validated by three simulation cases with different performance indexes and boundary constraints.     

基于库伦摩擦效应的箔片轴承极限承载力理论与试验

基于有限单元法建立了考虑库伦摩擦的波箔型径向气体箔片轴承的箔片结构模型,采用有限差分法和有限单元法耦合求解Reynolds方程和气膜厚度方程,通过求解轴颈达到极限偏心率时的轴承极限承载力,研究了箔片结构库伦摩擦效应对轴承极限承载力的影响规律,并搭建了轴承极限承载力测试试验台,利用温度法测量了两个具有不同轴承壳内表面粗糙度的波箔型径向气体箔片轴承的轴承极限承载力.通过对比分析仿真结果与试验结果表明:轴承壳圆柱孔内表面粗糙度为0.4μm的轴承在10000r/min和20000r/min下,轴承极限承载力分别为15.5N和42.3N;而表面粗糙度为1.6μm的轴承极限承载力为10.9N和29.6N,这是由于波纹箔片和轴承壳体之间的库伦摩擦力增大了波纹箔片的刚度,因此增大箔片结构摩擦因数使得轴承极限承载力降低,并且仿真结果变化趋势和试验结果变化趋势吻合.      

基于LS-DYNA滚动轴承使役可靠度计算方法

利用软件LS-DYNA对滚动轴承使役过程进行了动态有限元计算,基于响应面法（RSM）建立6408滚动轴承输入参数与输出响应的函数关系方程,设定各类随机误差分布,利用矩阵试验法确定抽样点在输入变量抽样空间的位置,进行一系列确定性拟合试验.每次试验借助LS-DYNA进行精确求解,运用求解数据对方程进行最小二乘法回归分析确定方程的组成项及系数.最后利用函数关系方程计算轴承任意时刻的使役可靠度.结果表明:计算得出该轴承在0.020008s时的使役可靠度为97.062%.      

某型航空活塞发动机进排气系统优化分析

针对高空小型飞机的动力要求,对某型航空活塞发动机的进排气系统均匀性进行了分析,建立了某型航空活塞发动机的仿真模型,分析了进排气管路结构参数对发动机性能的影响.以进气质量流量不均匀度和进气压力波动效应为评价指标,对发动机的进排气系统结构参数进行了优化.通过改变进排气歧管和总管的长度,把不均匀度降低到5%以内,最大降幅为38%,并且提高了发动机的扭矩和功率,最大提高幅度为5%.      

基于泰勒展开法的转子系统动力特性区间分析方法

对转子系统动力特性运用一种非概率-区间分析方法进行分析.基于区间数学和1阶泰勒展开理论的区间分析方法将非确定参数支承刚度和连接结构刚度视为区间向量,运用泰勒展开法建立了转子系统固有频率的公式.区间分析方法降低了传统的概率分析方法对不确定参数信息的过分要求,为解决含有非确定参数的转子系统动力特性问题提供了一个途径.应用区间泰勒展开法和概率方法对数值算例进行了分析,并比较了结果.当参数非确定性小于20%时,计算得到的转子系统固有频率区间上下界与真实值区间上下界误差小于2.2%.建立了转子系统动力特性试验装置,试验结果验证了方法的有效性.      

压缩空气中悬浮油检测采样方法研究

设计了一套压缩空气中悬浮油检测的采样方法,并对该方法的采样时间、采样流量、采样吸收效率等进行了定量化试验和论证,确认了该方法的适用性。     

考虑旋翼调制影响的直升机RCS特性分析及评估

考虑旋翼调制的影响,建立了适合于直升机全机雷达散射截面(RCS)特性计算的“面元-边缘法”.兼顾计算效率和精度,在外形变化剧烈地区域,网格进行加密处理,并保证电磁网格密度和尺度满足雷达波波长大小的比例关系.以桨盘倾倒方式计入桨叶的挥舞和变距运动,采用准静态法模拟旋翼对全机RCS特性的影响.分析了某直升机RCS极化、姿态、频率响应特性,并根据直升机RCS和雷达探测距离关系,提出了4级预警机制和角域范围.研究表明:旋翼转动时全机RCS动态响应具有连续性和对称性,振荡区散射水平强,RCS幅值为-5~12dB ·m2;奇数片桨叶比偶数片桨叶的RCS减缩2~5dB ·m2,且有利于控制直升机RCS包络线和散射峰值的时域响应,增强雷达隐身性能.      

高速圆柱滚子轴承保持架动力学特性分析

建立了高速圆柱滚子轴承动力学微分方程,采用精细积分法和预估-校正Adams-Bashforth-Moulton多步法相结合的算法,对高速圆柱滚子轴承动力学微分方程进行求解,并对保持架的动力学特性进行了理论分析.结果表明:过大的保持架间隙比不利于保持架稳定运转;在一个套圈固定、另一个套圈工作状态下,保持架引导方式采用旋转套圈引导时,保持架打滑率较低;保持架采用外引导方式时保持架质心运动较为稳定;在内外圈同向旋转且外圈转速高于内圈转速条件下,保持架采用外引导方式时,保持架打滑率较低;在内外圈反向旋转且外圈转速高于内圈转速条件下,保持架质心轨迹变得不规则;保持架采用外引导方式时,保持架打滑率为负值.