USA-193 decay predictions using public domain trajectory data and assessment of the post-intercept orbital debris cloud

In early 2008, the need arose to predict the orbital decay of the American spacecraft USA-193, whose characteristics, function and orbit were classified information. With no orbit data and independent Italian tracking capability available, we turned our attention on the orbits determined by a worldwide network of about 20 visual satellite observers. The orbits of USA-193 obtained from their visual observations were therefore used as the sole source of orbit information. Contrary to our expectations, this exercise was extremely successful and we learned a lot in the process. The orbits provided by the visual observers were very accurate for such a low satellite (although the minimum and very stable level of solar activity helped considerably); however, data gaps of a few days were sometimes possible, due to unfavorable pass geometry or weather and light conditions. In any case, the orbital period and the semimajor axis were so accurate that it was possible for us to obtain very good decay fits using special perturbation software, including various atmospheric density models together with all the other relevant perturbing accelerations. We were therefore able to estimate accurate values of the ballistic parameter and the resulting decay and reentry predictions were extremely stable. Amateur optical observations and images of USA-193 had also led to a rough estimation of the shape and sizes of the satellite, revealing that the solar arrays had never been deployed. With this information, and taking into account our estimates of the ballistic parameter, we obtained reasonable and consistent values of the spacecraft mass. Based on previous reentry fragmentation analyses, we were then able to guess the expected USA-193 casualty area, casualty expectancy, debris ground footprint and probability of impact in Italy. Lastly, after the decision by the US Government to destroy the satellite, we independently predicted the interception time windows and the post-event ground tracks. Following the successful spacecraft breakup, we analyzed the evolution of the resulting debris cloud and assessed its (very limited) adverse impact on the circumterrestrial environment.     

Physical properties and long-term evolution of the debris clouds produced by two catastrophic collisions in Earth orbit

The population of cataloged orbital debris increased by approximately 40% in just a couple of years, from January 2007 to February 2009. This was due to two collisions in space, which involved the catastrophic destruction of three intact satellites (Fengyun 1C, Cosmos 2251 and Iridium 33) in high inclination orbits. Both events occurred in the altitude range already most affected by previous launch activity and breakup events, thus boosting the cataloged population in low Earth orbit by more than 60%.     

Assessment of the consequences of the Fengyun-1C breakup in low Earth orbit

On 11 January 2007, the People’s Republic of China conducted a successful anti-satellite test against one of their defunct polar-orbiting weather satellites. The target satellite, called Fengyun-1C, had a mass of 880 kg and was orbiting at an altitude of about 863 km when the collision occurred. Struck by a direct-ascent interceptor at a speed of 9.36 km/s, the satellite disintegrated, spreading the cataloged fragments between 200 and 4000 km, with the highest concentration near the breakup height. By the end of April 2008, 2377 pieces of debris, including the original payload remnant, had officially been cataloged by the US Space Surveillance Network. Of these, nearly 1% had reentered the Earth’s atmosphere. This deliberate act is the largest debris-generating event on record, and its consequences will adversely affect circumterrestrial space for many years.     

Impact risk analysis for a spacecraft in Cosmo-Skymed orbit

This paper presents a case study of Micrometeoroids and Orbital Debris risk assessment for a spacecraft flying in an orbit close to that of the Italian Cosmo-Skymed constellation. The aim of the analysis was to calculate the failure flux impinging on the satellite external shell, taking into account both geometry and materials of satellite surfaces. Furthermore the analysis included the evaluation of the contribution to debris population at the selected orbit of the fragments produced by a Chinese Anti-SATellite experiment, which caused the catastrophic break-up of the satellite Fengyun 1C in January 2007.     

The effectiveness of end-of-life re-orbiting for debris mitigation in geostationary orbit

The effect of satellite breakups over 72 years, as a function of the end-of-life re-orbiting altitude (0–2000km), was analyzed in terms of fragment contribution to the object density in the geostationary orbit (GEO) ring, both in the short- and long-term. In the short-term, the explosions in GEO are the most detrimental for the GEO ring environment, though the average fragment density in the ring is never higher than 1/5 of the background, decreasing to less than 1/100 of the existing environment after 4 years (apart from a density rebound 5 decades later, due to luni-solar perturbations). Spacecraft end-of-life re-orbiting is a possible mitigation solution. But the re-orbiting altitude is critical if explosions continue to occur. In order to reduce the post-event average density by 1 order of magnitude with respect to an explosion occurring in GEO, more than 500km of re-orbiting is needed. Concerning the long-term environmental impact, the re-orbiting strategy supported by Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC) seems adequate to guarantee, after 2–3 years, a long-term average density of fragments in the GEO ring of at least 2 orders of magnitude below the existing background. But at least 1000km of re-orbiting are needed to stay below that threshold in the short-term too. In conclusion, the re-orbiting strategy recommended by IADC is totally adequate in the long-term, but only if satellite passivation is extensively carried out.     

Space debris mitigation in geosynchronous orbit

In order to preserve the geosynchronous region, the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC) proposed and endorsed a re-orbiting strategy for spacecraft at the end-of-life: they should be disposed above the synchronous altitude and passivated, to reduce the risk of inadvertent explosions. The recommended perigee altitude of the disposal orbit took into account all relevant perturbations and was a function of the expected perturbing acceleration induced by solar radiation pressure. It was intended to prevent any further interference with a properly defined geostationary protected region.     

Assessing the Impact Risk of Orbital Debris on Space Tethers

Tethers are being proposed for a growing number of space applications. However, they may be particularly vulnerable to orbital debris and meteoroid impacts. In order to provide useful reference data for tether systems design, detailed analytical and numerical computations were carried out to assess the average impact rate of artificial debris and meteoroids. The specific geometric properties of tethers as debris targets, when compared to typical satellites, are discussed, and the results obtained are presented in tabular form, as a function of debris size and tether diameter.The computations were carried out for six circular orbits, spanning three altitudes (600, 800 and 1000km) and two inclinations (30° and 50°). Tether diameters in between 1mm and 2cm and debris larger than 0.1mm were considered in the analysis. The collision risk of tethers with spacecraft and upper stages in orbit was estimated as well.In the debris interval and orbital regimes considered, artificial debris represent the dominant contributor to the impact rate. At 600km and in the 0.1–10mm size range, the meteoroid and orbital debris impact rates are still comparable; however, at higher altitudes and in the 1–10cm size range, meteoroids contribute 20–30 times less to the collision probability.The results obtained confirm that for single-strand tethers in low Earth orbit the probability to be severed by orbital debris and meteoroid impacts is quite significant, making necessary the adoption of innovative designs for long duration missions.