Storm-time atmospheric density modeling using neural networks and its application in orbit propagation

Upper atmospheric densities during geomagnetic storms are usually poorly estimated due to a lack of clear understanding of coupling mechanisms between the thermosphere and magnetosphere. Consequently, the orbit determination and propagation for low-Earth-orbit objects during geomagnetic storms have large uncertainties. Artificial neural networks are often used to identify nonlinear systems in the absence of rigorous theory. In the present study, an attempt has been made to model the storm-time atmospheric density using neural networks. Considering the debate over the representative of geomagnetic storm effect, i.e. the geomagnetic indices ap and Dst, three neural network models (NNM) are developed with ap, Dst and a combination of ap and Dst respectively. The density data used for training the NNMs are derived from the measurements of the satellites CHAMP and GRACE. The NNMs are evaluated by looking at: (a) the mean residuals and the standard deviations with respect to the density data that are not used in training process, and (b) the accuracy of reconstructing the orbits of selected objects during storms employing each model. This empirical modeling technique and the comparisons with the models NRLMSIS-00 and Jacchia-Bowman 2008 reveal (1) the capability of neural networks to model the relationship between solar and geomagnetic activities, and density variations; and (2) the merits and demerits of ap and Dst when it comes to characterizing density variations during storms.     

In situ Lunar Orientation Measurement (ILOM): Simulation of observation

The measurement of the rotation of the Moon is one of the key techniques to get the information of the internal structure. For this purpose, we proposed a small telescope experiment on the surface of the Moon in which motion of stars are utilized for the estimation of the rotation parameter. This paper describes results of simulation of observation, in which star trajectories observed are decomposed to librations, polar motion, and the precession and the amplitude and phase of each component are estimated. The standard deviation of the parameter estimation becomes nearly 1 ms of arc, which will be better than the Lunar Laser Ranging observation. From the viewpoints of accuracy of observation, thermal condition, and electric power generation, the instrument should be placed where the much sunshine is achieved on the lunar polar region.     

Practical guidelines for electro-dynamic tethers to survive from orbital debris impacts

Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) has proposed an active debris removal using electro-dynamic tether to reduce large space debris in the low-Earth orbit. However, a tether strand is thin but long enough to have a large area so that it is vulnerable to small particles. This vulnerability might be the weakest point of a tether system against orbital debris. In order to overcome this weakest point, a double tether system, in which two tether strands are tied together at even intervals to form equally spaced loops, has been suggested as one of the promising candidates. This paper provides a mathematical approach to estimate the survival probability of a double tether system and then apply the approach to evaluate the mission success rate of the active debris removal using electro-dynamic tether that JAXA has proposed. It can be concluded the countermeasure to get enough success rate can be obtained. The result is simulated for Advanced Earth Observing Satellite II (ADEOS-II) re-entry from 800 km sun synchronized orbit to atmosphere. The simulation shows that mission success rate over 90% can be obtained with number of loops over 1000 and 10 mm clearance between two strands.     

Lunar Magnetic Field Observation and Initial Global Mapping of Lunar Magnetic Anomalies by MAP-LMAG Onboard SELENE (Kaguya)

The magnetic field around the Moon has been successfully observed at a nominal altitude of ～100 km by the lunar magnetometer (LMAG) on the SELENE (Kaguya) spacecraft in a polar orbit since October 29, 2007. The LMAG mission has three main objectives: (1) mapping the magnetic anomaly of the Moon, (2) measuring the electromagnetic and plasma environment around the Moon and (3) estimating the electrical conductivity structure of the Moon. Here we review the instrumentation and calibration of LMAG and report the initial global mapping of the lunar magnetic anomaly at the nominal altitude. We have applied a new de-trending technique of the Bayesian procedure to multiple-orbit datasets observed in the tail lobe and in the lunar wake. Based on the nominal observation of 14 months, global maps of lunar magnetic anomalies are obtained with 95% coverage of the lunar surface. After altitude normalization and interpolation of the magnetic anomaly field by an inverse boundary value problem, we obtained full-coverage maps of the vector magnetic field at 100 km altitude and the radial component distribution on the surface. Relatively strong anomalies are identified in several basin-antipode regions and several near-basin and near-crater regions, while the youngest basin on the Moon, the Orientale basin, has no magnetic anomaly. These features well agree with characteristics of previous maps based on the Lunar Prospector observation. Relatively weak anomalies are distributed over most of the lunar surface. The surface radial-component distribution estimated from the inverse boundary value problem in the present study shows a good correlation with the radial component distribution at 30 km altitude by Lunar Prospector. Thus these weak anomalies over the lunar surface are not artifacts but likely to be originated from the lunar crustal magnetism, suggesting possible existence of an ancient global magnetic field such as a dynamo field of the early Moon. The possibility of the early lunar dynamo and the mechanism of magnetization acquisition will be investigated by a further study using the low-altitude data of the magnetic field by Kaguya.     

用于未来月球探测的ILOM 技术现状

使用面包板模型和仿真方法,在实验室内研究月球指向就位测量望远镜(ILOM)的基本特征,如望远镜星像中心点位置精度、温度效应、倾斜以及地面震动的影响。使用这个技术预期在月球表面观测月球自转时可以达到1ms的精度。将在地面上开展测试验证观测以全面评价达到优于0.1″观测精度目标所需条件和特征。     

Orbit determination by genetic algorithm and application to GEO observation

This paper demonstrates an initial orbit determination method that solves the problem by a genetic algorithm using two well-known solutions for the Lambert’s problem: universal variable method and Battin method. This paper also suggests an intuitive error evaluation method in terms of rotational angle and orbit shape by separating orbit elements into two groups. As reference orbit, mean orbit elements (original two-lines elements) and osculating orbit elements considering the J2 effect are adopted and compared. Our proposed orbit determination method has been tested with actual optical observations of a geosynchronous spacecraft. It should be noted that this demonstration of the orbit determination is limited to one test case. This observation was conducted during approximately 70 min on 2013/05/15 UT. Our method was compared with the orbit elements propagated by SGP4 using the TLE of the spacecraft. The result indicates that our proposed method had a slightly better performance on estimating orbit shape than Gauss’s methods and Escobal’s method by 120 km. In addition, the result of the rotational angle is closer to the osculating orbit elements than the mean orbit elements by 0.02°, which supports that the estimated orbit is valid.     

Searching for lost fragments in GEO

This paper attempts to search the lost fragments from the near-synchronous US TitanIIIC transtage explosion of February 21, 1992, known as the second major fragmentation of a TitanIIIC transtage. This breakup was accidentally observed by the Maui GEODSS sensor, and then a total of 23 objects were reported from the breakup, no orbital data on any fragments has been generated by the SSN. In order to evaluate the debris cloud orbital evolution, we demonstrate the actual US TitanIIIC transtage explosion by using breakup model and orbit propagator. The perturbing accelerations, considered in this analysis are the non-spherical part of the Earth's gravitational attraction, the gravitational attraction due to the Sun and Moon, and the solar radiation pressure effects. Finally, we will present a search strategy based on distribution of the right ascension of the ascending node about the catalogued objects and the debris particles from the US TitanIIIC transtage explosion.     

A simulation study for anticipated accuracy of lunar gravity field model by SELENE tracking data

Results of numerical simulations are presented to examine the global gravity field recovery capability of the Japanese lunar exploration project SELENE (SELenological and ENgineering Explorer) which will be launched in 2007. New characteristics of the SELENE lunar gravimetry include 4-way satellite-to-satellite Doppler tracking of main orbiter and differential VLBI tracking of two small free-flier satellites. It is shown that the proposed satellite constellation will provide the first truly global satellite tracking data coverage. The expected results from these data are; (1) drastic reduction in far-side gravity error, (2) estimation of many gravity coefficients by the observation, not by a priori information, and (3) one order of magnitude improvement over existing gravity models for low-degree field.     

Observation campaign dedicated to 1968-081E fragments identification

This paper proposes a comprehensive approach to associate origins of space objects newly discovered during optical surveys in the geostationary region with spacecraft breakup events. A recent study has shown that twelve breakup events would be occurred in the geostationary region. The proposed approach utilizes orbital debris modeling techniques to effectively conduct prediction, detection, and classification of breakup fragments. Two techniques are applied to get probable results for origin identifications. First, we select an observation point where a high detection rate for one breakup event among others can be expected. Second, we associate detected tracklets, which denotes the signals associated with a physical object, with the prediction results according to their angular velocities. The second technique investigates which breakup event a tracklet would belong to, and its probability by using the k-nearest neighbor (k-NN) algorithm.     

Practical method to identify orbital anomaly as spacecraft breakup in the geostationary region

Identifying spacecraft breakup events is an essential issue for better understanding of the current orbital debris environment. This paper proposes an observation planning approach to identify an orbital anomaly, which appears as a significant discontinuity in archived orbital history, as a spacecraft breakup. The proposed approach is applicable to orbital anomalies in the geostationary region. The proposed approach selects a spacecraft that experienced an orbital anomaly, and then predicts trajectories of possible fragments of the spacecraft at an observation epoch. This paper theoretically demonstrates that observation planning for the possible fragments can be conducted. To do this, long-term behaviors of the possible fragments are evaluated. It is concluded that intersections of their trajectories will converge into several corresponding regions in the celestial sphere even if the breakup epoch is not specified and it has uncertainty of the order of several weeks.