Solar Weather Event Modelling and Prediction

Key drivers of solar weather and mid-term solar weather are reviewed by considering a selection of relevant physics- and statistics-based scientific models as well as a selection of related prediction models, in order to provide an updated operational scenario for space weather applications. The characteristics and outcomes of the considered scientific and prediction models indicate that they only partially cope with the complex nature of solar activity for the lack of a detailed knowledge of the underlying physics. This is indicated by the fact that, on one hand, scientific models based on chaos theory and non-linear dynamics reproduce better the observed features, and, on the other hand, that prediction models based on statistics and artificial neural networks perform better. To date, the solar weather prediction success at most time and spatial scales is far from being satisfactory, but the forthcoming ground- and space-based high-resolution observations can add fundamental tiles to the modelling and predicting frameworks as well as the application of advanced mathematical approaches in the analysis of diachronic solar observations, that are a must to provide comprehensive and homogeneous data sets.     

Advanced technologies available for future solid propellant grains

Significant advances have been made during the last decade in several fields of solid propulsion: the advances have enabled new savings in the motor development phase and recurring costs, because they help limit the number of prototypes and tests.The purpose of the paper is to describe the improvements achieved by SNPE in solid grain technologies, making these technologies available for new developments in more efficient and reliable future SRMs: new energetic molecules, new solid propellants, new processes for grain manufacturing, quick response grain design tools associated with advanced models for grain performance predictions.Using its expertise in chemical synthesis, SNPE develops new molecules to fit new energetic material requirements.Tests based on new propellant formulations have produced good results in the propellant performance/safety behavior ratio. New processes have been developed simultaneously to reduce the manufacturing costs of the new propellants.In addition, the grain design has been optimized by using the latest generation of predictive theoretical tools supported by a large data bank of experimental parameters resulting from over 30 years' experience in solid propulsion:

• Computer-aided method for the preliminary grain design

• Advanced models for SRM operating and performance predictions

Rainfall estimation over a Mediterranean region using a method based on various spectral parameters of SEVIRI-MSG

The ultimate objective of this paper is the estimation of rainfall over an area in Algeria using data from the SEVIRI radiometer (Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager). To achieve this aim, we use a new Convective/Stratiform Rain Area Delineation Technique (CS-RADT). The satellite rainfall retrieval technique is based on various spectral parameters of SEVIRI that express microphysical and optical cloud properties. It uses a multispectral thresholding technique to distinguish between stratiform and convective clouds. This technique (CS-RADT) is applied to the complex situation of the Mediterranean climate of this region. The tests have been conducted during the rainy seasons of 2006/2007 and 2010/2011 where stratiform and convective precipitation is recorded. The developed scheme (CS-RADT) is calibrated by instantaneous meteorological radar data to determine thresholds, and then rain rates are assigned to each cloud type by using radar and rain gauge data. These calibration data are collocated with SEVIRI data in time and space.     

A low cost multimission bus for small satellites applications

This article presents the AEROSPATIALE ESPACE & DEFENSE industrial approach for the CNES PROTEUS platform. Three major targets were assigned to the PROTEUS platform. A very wide field of missions (orbits, attitude, instruments and launch vehicle compatibility) will be implemented on PROTEUS platform at a very attractive cost and within a 24 months delivery time. A cost driven system methodology has been established to produce a recurring platform at a very attractive cost. Cost reductions choices were analysed and selected on organisation, engineering, procurement, quality and industrialisation.     

Balloon materials and designs

Improvements of materials can extend the performance of scientific balloon flights in altitude, suspended load and duration. The impact of new materials is considered in the design of superpressure balloons for long duration improvement, ultra light weight for sounding balloons, and a launch technique for minimizing relative wind problems.     

Book reviews

Space Science Reviews -     

RADAR “SAIL” satellite concept

The Radar SAIL concept is based on the use of a rectangular antenna lying in the dawn-dusk orbital plane with the length (along speed vector) smaller than the height. Such geometry makes it possible to place the solar cells on the back of the antenna, to use gravity gradient stabilisation, and to implement multipath-free GPS interferometric measurement of the antenna deformation thus allowing structural relaxation. Less obviously, the geometry favours the RADAR design too, by allowing grating lobes and therefore a lower density of built-in electronic in the active antenna. The antenna can be thin and packed for launch inside a cylinder-shaped bus having pyrotechnic doors for the antenna deployement and bearing the rest of the payload and the service equipment. With respect to a standard design of performant missions, cost savings come from the bus, whose functions (AOCS, power supply) are simplified, from the launch since the mass budget and the stowing configuration become compatible with medium size rockets (LLV2/3, DELTA-LITE, LM-4.), and from the active antenna built-in electronics.

The RADAR SAIL concept is all the more cost effective when the mission requires a large, high and short antenna, i.e. high resolution (<5m), low frequency band (L or S or even P), high revisiting, multiple frequencies. Mission implementation and funding can be favored by the new capability to share the satellite between autonomous regional operators. Combined with ground DBF (digital beam forming) technique, the concept allows extremely simple and low cost missions providing a fixed wide swath (10 to 15 m resolution within 500km to 1000 km swath) for systematic surveillance or monitoring.     

Basic belief assignment approximations using degree of non-redundancy for focal element

Dempster-Shafer evidence theory, also called the theory of belief function, is widely used for uncertainty modeling and reasoning. However, when the size and number of focal elements are large, the evidence combination will bring a high computational complexity. To address this issue, various methods have been proposed including the implementation of more efficient combination rules and the simplifications or approximations of Basic Belief Assignments (BBAs). In this paper, a novel principle for approximating a BBA into a simpler one is proposed, which is based on the degree of non-redundancy for focal elements. More non-redundant focal elements are kept in the approximation while more redundant focal elements in the original BBA are removed first. Three types of degree of non-redundancy are defined based on three different definitions of focal element distance, respectively. Two different implementations of this principle for BBA approximations are proposed including a batch and an iterative type. Examples, experiments, comparisons and related analyses are provided to validate proposed approximation approaches.     

A statistical study of solar radio Type III bursts and space weather implication

Solar radio bursts (SRBs) are the signatures of various phenomenon that happen in the solar corona and interplanetary medium (IPM). In this article, we have studied occurrence of Type III bursts and their association with the Sunspot number. This study confirms that occurrence of Type III bursts correlate well with Sunspot number. Further, using the data obtained using e-CALLISTO network, we have investigated drift rates of isolated Type III bursts and duration of the group of Type III bursts. Since Type II, Type III and Type IV bursts are signatures of solar flares and/or CMEs, we can use the radio observations to predict space weather hazards. In this article, we have discussed two events that have caused near Earth radio blackouts. Since e-CALLISTO comprises more than 152 stations at different longitudes, we can use it to monitor the radio emissions from the solar corona 24 h a day. Such observations play a crucial role in monitoring and predicting space weather hazards within few minutes to hours of time.     

Searching for life in extreme environments relevant to Jovian’s Europa: Lessons from subglacial ice studies at Lake Vostok (East Antarctica)

The objective was to estimate the genuine microbial content of ice samples from refrozen water (accretion ice) from the subglacial Lake Vostok (Antarctica) buried beneath the 4-km thick East Antarctic ice sheet. The samples were extracted by heavy deep ice drilling from 3659 m below the surface. High pressure, a low carbon and chemical content, isolation, complete darkness and the probable excess of oxygen in water for millions of years characterize this extreme environment. A decontamination protocol was first applied to samples selected for the absence of cracks to remove the outer part contaminated by handling and drilling fluid. Preliminary indications showed the accretion ice samples to be almost gas free with a low impurity content. Flow cytometry showed the very low unevenly distributed biomass while repeated microscopic observations were unsuccessful.