Simulation of Ambiguity Effects in Doppler Tracking of Pioneer Probes

Various models have been proposed to interpret the anomalous Pioneer Doppler data. We present in this paper a simulation tool aiming at determining signatures that could be searched in the data reduction process in order to discriminate between these different explanations. We discuss preliminary results on the seasonally modulated anomalies and compare two interpretations corresponding to a constant anomalous acceleration on one hand, to an anomalous curvature in the second sector of the gravity law on the other hand. Though the second sector interpretation could naturally induce large modulated anomalies, the adjustment of the initial conditions partly compensate these modulations and thus produces a signature resembling that of a constant acceleration. The difference between the predictions of the two interpretations is in fact close to the rms level of the residuals after the data analysis.     

Determination of the Equivalence Principle Violation Signal for the MICROSCOPE Space Mission: Optimization of the Signal Processing

The MICROSCOPE space mission aims at testing the Equivalence Principle (EP) with an accuracy of 10^?15. The test is based on the precise measurement delivered by a differential electrostatic accelerometer on-board a drag-free microsatellite which includes two cylindrical test masses submitted to the same gravitational field and made of different materials. The experiment consists in testing the equality of the electrostatic acceleration applied to the masses to maintain them relatively motionless at a well-known frequency. This high precision experiment is compatible with only very little perturbations. However, aliasing arises from the finite time span of the measurement, and is amplified by measurement losses. These effects perturb the measurement analysis. Numerical simulations have been run to estimate the contribution of a perturbation at any frequency on the EP violation frequency and to test its compatibility with the mission specifications. Moreover, different data analysis procedures have been considered to select the one minimizing these effects taking into account the uncertainty about the frequencies of the implicated signals.     

MEP (Mars Environment Package): toward a package for studying environmental conditions at the surface of Mars from future lander/rover missions.

In view to prepare Mars human exploration, it is necessary to promote and lead, at the international level, a highly interdisciplinary program, involving specialists of geochemistry, geophysics, atmospheric science, space weather, and biology. The goal of this program will be to elaborate concepts of individual instruments, then of integrated instrumental packages, able to collect exhaustive data sets of environmental parameters from future landers and rovers of Mars, and to favour the conditions of their implementation. Such a program is one of the most urgent need for preparing human exploration, in order to develop mitigation strategies aimed at ensuring the safety of human explorers, and minimizing risk for surface operations. A few main areas of investigation may be listed: particle and radiation environment, chemical composition of atmosphere, meteorology, chemical composition of dust, surface and subsurface material, water in the subsurface, physical properties of the soil, search for an hypothesized microbial activity, characterization of radio-electric properties of the Martian ionosphere. Scientists at the origin of the present paper, already involved at a high degree of responsibility in several Mars missions, and actively preparing in situ instrumentation for future landed platforms (Netlander--now cancelled, MSL-09), express their readiness to participate in both ESA/AURORA and NASA programs of Mars human exploration. They think that the formation of a Mars Environment working group at ESA, in the course of the AURORA definition phase, could act positively in favour of the program, by increasing its scientific cross-section and making it still more focused on human exploration.     

Cosmic ray detection on the Foton-M2 satellite by a track etch detector stack

In the frame of the European Space Agency (ESA) project called “Biology and Physics in Space”, the returning satellite, Foton-M2, carried an open-to-space exposure platform outside of the satellite body, called as BIOPAN-5, loaded with exo-biological experiments and facilities for radiation dosimetry (RADO). One of the RADO experiments was dedicated to the detection of the primary galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and secondary neutrons by a track etch detector stack. The daily absorbed dose (D) and dose equivalent (H) were calculated from the experimental LET spectra (LET > 10 keV/μm). Under a shielding of ∼2.8 g/cm² the averaged H was found to be 658 ± 8 μSv/d, with a quality factor (Q) of 6.2 ± 1.2. The LET spectra showed a local peak at ∼105 keV/μm suggesting that the majority of tracks were created by trapped protons as it has been predicted by calculations. The low LET dose of the cosmic radiation was determined by 4 TLD stacks, and the total dose was found to be 795 ± 14 μSv/d.     

An application of the weighted horizontal magnetic gradient to solar compact and eruptive events

We propose to apply the weighted horizontal magnetic gradient (${\mathit{WG}}_M$), introduced in Korsós et al., 2015, for analysing the pre-flare and pre-CME behaviour and evolution of Active Regions (ARs) using the SDO/HMI-Debrecen Data catalogue. To demonstrate the power of investigative capabilities of the ${\mathit{WG}}_M$ method, in terms of flare and CME eruptions, we studied two typical ARs, namely, AR 12158 and AR 12192. The choice of ARs represent canonical cases. AR 12158 produced an X1.6 flare with fast “halo” CME ($v_{\mathit{linear}}$ = 1267 $\text{km}{\text{s}}^{-1}$) while in AR 12192 there occurred a range of powerful X-class eruptions, i.e. X1.1, X1.6, X3.1, X1.0, X2.0 and X2.0-class energetic flares, interestingly, none with an accompanying CME. The value itself and temporal variation of ${\mathit{WG}}_M$ is found to possess potentially important diagnostic information about the intensity of the expected flare class. Furthermore, we have also estimated the flare onset time from the relationship of duration of converging and diverging motions of the area-weighted barycenters of two subgroups of opposite magnetic polarities. This test turns out not only to provide information about the intensity of the expected flare-class and the flare onset time but may also indicate whether a flare will occur with/without fast CME. We have also found that, in the case when the negative polarity barycenter has moved around and the positive one “remained” at the same coordinates preceding eruption, the flare occurred with fast “halo” CME. Otherwise, when both the negative and the positive polarity barycenters have moved around, the AR produced flares without CME. If these properties found for the movement of the barycenters are generic pre-cursors of CME eruption (or lack of it), identifying them may serve as an excellent pre-condition for refining the forecast of the lift-off of CMEs.     

Detailed analysis of dynamic evolution of three Active Regions at the photospheric level before flare and CME occurrence

We present a combined analysis of the applications of the weighted horizontal magnetic gradient (denoted as ${\mathit{WG}}_M$ in Korsós et al. (2015)) method and the magnetic helicity tool (Berger and Field, 1984) employed for three active regions (ARs), namely NOAA AR 11261, AR 11283 and AR 11429. We analysed the time series of photospheric data from the Solar Dynamics Observatory taken between August 2011 and March 2012. During this period the three ARs produced a series of flares (eight M- and six X-class) and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). AR 11261 had four M-class flares and one of them was accompanied by a fast CME. AR 11283 had similar activities with two M- and two X-class flares, but only with a slow CME. Finally, AR 11429 was the most powerful of the three ARs as it hosted five compact and large solar flare and CME eruptions. For applying the ${\mathit{WG}}_M$ method we employed the Debrecen sunspot data catalogue, and, for estimating the magnetic helicity at photospheric level we used the Space-weather HMI Active Region Patches (SHARP’s) vector magnetograms from SDO/HMI (Solar Dynamics Observatory/Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager). We followed the evolution of the components of the ${\mathit{WG}}_M$ and the magnetic helicity before the flare and CME occurrences. We found a unique and mutually shared behaviour, called the U-shaped pattern, of the weighted distance component of ${\mathit{WG}}_M$ and of the shearing component of the helicity flux before the flare and CME eruptions. This common pattern is associated with the decreasing-receding phases yet reported only known to be a necessary feature prior to solar flare eruption(s) but found now at the same time in the evolution of the shearing helicity flux. This result leads to the conclusions that (i) the shearing motion of photospheric magnetic field may be a key driver for solar eruption in addition to the flux emerging process, and that (ii) the found decreasing-approaching pattern in the evolution of shearing helicity flux may be another precursor indicator for improving the forecasting of solar eruptions.     

Cloud cover analysis using spectral and spatial characteristics of meteosat images

New developments of a cloud classification scheme based on histogram clustering by a statistical method are studied. Use of time series of satellite pictures and of spatial variances is introduced and discussed.