基于单纯形法的TLE轨道确定

TLE数据库是目前公开获得轨道信息的唯一来源，其包含的空间目标将持续增加.利用TLE数据库获得精确的定轨结果已成为研究重点.由于TLE数据本身精度未知且存在波动，需要利用历史TLE数据对参考时刻的TLE状态进行轨道确定.常用方法为最小二乘法，但是该方法具有局限性，需要较为精确的初始值，且误差评估不可靠，解易产生发散.为克服现有方法的局限性，本文提出了一种局部搜索算法——单纯形调优法来实现TLE轨道确定.为避免构建的初始单纯形搜索得到的最优解属于局部最优，引入蒙特卡罗方法对初始单纯形进行采样，获得一系列解的统计分布，通过求该分布的期望和方差获得最终结果.研究结果表明，将单纯形调优法获得的结果用于传播预报可显著降低位置和速度误差.      

Improved orbit predictions using two-line elements

The density of orbital space debris constitutes an increasing environmental challenge. There are two ways to alleviate the problem: debris mitigation and debris removal. This paper addresses collision avoidance, a key aspect of debris mitigation. We describe a method that contributes to achieving a requisite increase in orbit prediction accuracy for objects in the publicly available two-line element (TLE) catalog. Batch least-squares differential correction is applied to the TLEs. Using a high-precision numerical propagator, we fit an orbit to state vectors derived from successive TLEs. We then propagate the fitted orbit further forward in time. These predictions are validated against precision ephemeris data derived from the international laser ranging service (ILRS) for several satellites, including objects in the congested sun-synchronous orbital region. The method leads to a predicted range error that increases at a typical rate of 100 m per day, approximately a 10-fold improvement over individual TLE’s propagated with their associated analytic propagator (SGP4). Corresponding improvements for debris trajectories could potentially provide conjunction analysis sufficiently accurate for an operationally viable collision avoidance system based on TLEs only.     

Use of two-line element data for thermosphere neutral density model calibration

Traditional empirical thermospheric density models are widely used in orbit determination and prediction of low-Earth satellites. Unfortunately, these models often exhibit large density errors of up to around 30% RMS. Density errors translate into orbit errors, adversely affecting applications such as re-entry operations, manoeuvre planning, collision avoidance and precise orbit determination for geodetic missions. The extensive database of two-line element (TLE) orbit data contains a wealth of information on satellite drag, at a sufficiently high spatial and temporal resolution to allow a calibration of existing neutral density models with a latency of one to two days. In our calibration software, new TLE data for selected objects is converted to satellite drag data on a daily basis. The resulting drag data is then used in a daily adjustment of density model calibration parameters, which modify the output of an existing empirical density model with the aim of increasing its accuracy. Two different calibration schemes have been tested using TLE data for about 50 objects during the year 2000. The schemes involve either height-dependent scale factors to the density or corrections to CIRA-72 model temperatures, which affect the density output based on a physical model. Both schemes have been applied with different spherical harmonic expansions of the parameters in latitude and local solar time. Five TLE objects, varying in perigee altitude between 280 and 530 km, were deliberately not used during calibration, in order to provide independent validation. Even with a single daily parameter, the RMS density model error along their tracks can already be reduced from the 30% to the 15% level. Adding additional parameters results in RMS errors lower than 12%.     

Optimising filtering of two-line element sets to increase re-entry prediction accuracy for GTO objects

Predicting re-entry epoch of space objects enables managing the risk to ground population. Predictions are particularly difficult for objects in highly-elliptical orbits, and important for objects with components that can survive re-entry, e.g. rocket bodies (R/Bs). This paper presents a methodology to filter two-line element sets (TLEs) to facilitate accurate re-entry prediction of such objects. Difficulties in using TLEs for precise analyses are highlighted and a set of filters that identifies erroneous element sets is developed. The filter settings are optimised using an artificially generated TLE time series. Optimisation results are verified on real TLEs by analysing the automatically found outliers for exemplar R/Bs. Based on a study of 96 historical re-entries, it is shown that TLE filtering is necessary on all orbital elements that are being used in a given analysis in order to avoid considerably inaccurate results.     

基于TLE的弹道系数计算方法及应用分析

针对仅使用两行要素（Two Line Element，TLE）作为数据源的应用需求，研究了基于TLE轨道衰减的弹道系数计算方法。介绍了一种常用的基于两组TLE的直接计算法，分析TLE选取间隔对结果精度的影响；提出了一种基于多组TLE的迭代计算方法，以降低异常TLE对计算结果的影响；从弹道系数计算效果、在再入预报中的应用等方面对这两种方法进行比较分析。结果表明，两种方法各有优劣，基于多组TLE的迭代计算法稳定性更高、受TLE精度的影响更小；由于数据区间更短，基于两组TLE的计算结果对短期轨道衰减特性反应得更准确，用于临近再入时的预报效果更好。     

基于期望最大算法的空间事件及异常值探测

美国ELSET数据库提供的TLE数据是目前使用最广泛的数据,在热层大气密度反演、弹道系数估计、碰撞预警等领域具有重要作用。受空间环境扰动、空间事件以及TLE产生过程等共同影响,ELSET数据库包含大量亟待清理的异常值和识别的空间事件,例如发布错误的TLE、轨道根数异常和Bstar异常。现有方法在清理异常轨道根数时缺乏统一性,需要使用不同的技术,清理流程较为繁杂,并且仅适用于特定轨道区域的少数目标。为克服现有方法的弊端,提出了一种基于期望最大算法的滑动窗口–多项式拟合预报方法,对含有轨道机动的碎片以及受空间环境影响的碎片进行异常值与空间事件探测。研究表明,该方法能够灵活处理不同空间环境下的异常值与空间事件探测,具有普适性,适用于所有轨道碎片。      

Estimation of ballistic coefficients of low altitude debris objects from historical two line elements

This paper presents a new method for estimating ballistic coefficients (BCs) of low perigee debris objects from their historical two line elements (TLEs). The method uses the drag perturbation equation of the semi-major axis of the orbit. For an object with perigee altitude below 700 km, the variation in the mean semi-major axis derived from the TLE is mainly caused by the atmospheric drag effect, and therefore is used as the source in the estimation of the ballistic coefficient. The method is tested using the GRACE satellites, and a number of debris objects with external ballistic coefficient values, and agreements of about 10% are achieved.     

TLE预报精度改进及碰撞预警中的应用

双行根数（Two Line Elements,TLE）是目前唯一公开发布且编目最完备的地球轨道空间目标编目数据,由于其根数的特殊性,必须配合SGP4/SDP4 使用导致其预报精度有限. 通过对TLE+SGP4/SDP4预报误差源的分析,利用历史TLE数据生成准观测数据重新进行轨道拟合,针对不同轨道高度和面积质量比情况,确定相应拟合周期,得出了基于弹道系数先验信息有效确定面积质量比的经验方法,对多个独立时段拟合后轨道根数结合数值方法的预报误差进行统计,结果表明,拟合后的TLE根数预报精度与稳定性有很大程度提升. 利用实例对拟合TLE在碰撞预警中的应用进行分析,认为该方法对航天工程中碰撞预警置信度的提高具有重要意义.      

利用卫星两行轨道根数反演热层密度

两行轨道根数（TLEs）是基于一般摄动理论产生的用于预报地球轨道飞行器位置和速度的一组轨道参数,通过求解大气阻力微分方程,可反演出热层大气密度. 本文选取近圆轨道CHAMP卫星和椭圆轨道Explorer8卫星,以两行轨道根数数据为基础,计算反弹道系数,并根据不同轨道特征采用两种不同反演方法对热层大气密度进行研究. 结果表明,这两种方法反演得到的大气密度与实测值均符合较好,其中CHAMP卫星的反演结果和经验模式值相对于实测值的误差分别为7.94%和13.94%,Explorer8卫星的误差分别为9.04%和14.32%. 相比模式值,利用两行轨道根数数据反演的热层大气密度更接近于实测值,说明该方法可以作为获取大量可靠大气密度数据的一种有效途径.      

空间碎片环境与碰撞预警仿真系统设计

在轨编目航天器数目已超过了9000,为了保证航天任务的顺利完成,必须对可能威胁到任务轨道的空间目标进行分析,文章首先对两行轨道根数和SGP4／SDP4轨道预报模型进行了分析,在此基础上建立了空间目标数据库及空间碎片环境与碰撞预警仿真和数据可视化系统。     

On prediction of re-entry time of an upper stage from GTO

The evolution of objects in geostationary transfer orbit (GTO) is determined by a complex interplay of atmospheric drag and luni-solar gravity. These orbits are highly eccentric (eccentricity >0.7) and have large variations in velocity and perturbations during a revolution. The periodic changes in the perigee altitudes of these orbits are mainly due to the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and the Moon. The re-entry time of the objects in such orbits is sensitive to the initial conditions. The aim of this paper is to study the re-entry time of the cryogenic stage of the Indian geo-synchronous launch vehicle, GSLV-F04/CS, which has been decaying since 2 September 2007 from initial orbit with eccentricity equal to 0.706. Two parameters, initial eccentricity and ballistic coefficient, are chosen for optimal estimation. It is known that the errors are more in eccentricity for the observations based on two line elements (TLEs). These two parameters are computed with response surface method using a genetic algorithm for the selected eight different zones, based on rough linear variation of the mean apogee altitude during 200 days orbit evolution. The study shows that the GSLV-F04/CS will re-enter between 5 December 2010 and 7 January 2011. The methodology is also applied to study the re-entry of six decayed objects (cryogenic stages of GSLV and Molniya satellites). Good agreement is noticed between the actual and the predicted re-entry times. The absolute percentage error in re-entry prediction time for all the six objects is found to be less than 7%. The present methodology is being adopted at Vikram Sarabhai Space Centre (VSSC) to predict the re-entry time of GSLV-F04/CS.     

基于GPS的地球资源卫星精密星历外推新方法

随着技术的发展,通过星载GPS接收机直接确定卫星星历成为卫星定位的一个重要手段.GPS接收机获取的卫星星历数据是某一时刻的瞬时状态,要获取连续的卫星星历数据还需要进一步处理.常用的处理方法有几何法与动力学法.在GPS接收机给定瞬时星历频率较低的情况下,几何法的计算误差比较大,特别是只有一组瞬时星历时,无法用几何法进行轨道的外推.在分析地球资源卫星轨道特点的基础上,提出一种新的轨道缩减动力模型,该模型将卫星运动在直角坐标系中分解为简谐运动,利用模型实现了轨道外推的算法.通过试验验证,该算法可以达到较高的精度.      

大气阻力参数修正对低轨空间目标轨道预报精度的改进

对于低轨空间目标, 大气阻力是影响轨道预报精度的主要摄动力. 本文提出了一种 基于空间环境数据和神经网络模型的空间目标大气阻力参数修正方法, 基于目 标的历史两行元根数, 通过模拟得到外推一天轨道预报中预报结果与观测数据 符合最好的阻力调制系数, 分析表明其与太阳F_10.7指数和地磁Ap指数具有很好的相关性. 根据已有数据, 构建神经网络模型, 实现对阻力调制系数 的补偿计算, 从而改进低轨目标外推一天的轨道预报. 结果表明, 神经网络模 型相比两行元根数能够更及时地对空间环境变化进行响应. 将该方案应用于天 宫一号和国际空间站的外推一天轨道预报, 验证了方案的正确性和普适性, 对 地磁扰动引起的较大预报误差改进效果更好, 误差能够降低50%~60%; 平均而言, 预报精度可以提高约30%, 改进成功率达到80%左右.      

Propagation errors analysis of TLE data

Orbit position uncertainty is an important factor for collision avoidance issues. For a single object with high frequency historical data, we can attain its position uncertainty easily. But sometimes data is not enough for errors analysis, orbits need to be classified. In this paper error analysis is made from two-line element sets data (TLEs). The Simplified General Perturbations-4 (SGP4) propagator was used. Statistical errors of debris and R/B are given for lower-altitude orbits which are classified by perigee altitude and eccentricity. The errors results and analysis for SSO (the Sun synchronous orbit) typical orbits are obtained. At last atmospheric drag as a main cause of downrange errors in lower-altitude orbit is analyzed. BSTAR in TLEs is modified to improve prediction precision.     

LEO空间碎片甚短弧角度数据初轨确定方法对比

光学观测是空间目标观测中最常见的一种观测方式。采用扫描模式工作时光学观测得到的观测弧段弧长通常很短,有时甚至不到被观测空间目标运行周期的1%,这样的角度数据被称为甚短弧角度数据。基于近圆LEO空间碎片地基实测场景,研究比较仅利用角度数据进行初始轨道确定常用方法的性能差异,分析观测弧长对不同初轨确定算法的定轨成功率和误差的影响,为初轨确定工作提供参考。对比分析了常用的几种方法,包括Laplace方法、Gauss方法、Gooding方法和近几年提出的距离搜索算法等。大规模实测数据处理结果显示,距离搜索算法的成功率高于90%,初轨半长轴统计误差仅为25 km。初轨结果表明,距离搜索算法定轨成功率高于其他算法。研究成果可为解决空间碎片初轨确定问题提供参考。      

空间非合作目标双行轨道根数快速生成算法

针对空间目标TLE拟合过程中可能出现的奇点问题,提出了基于无奇异变换的空间目标双行轨道根数（TLE）生成算法. 为提高观测平台对空间目标状态估计效率,提出带有自适应遗忘因子的非线性最小二乘递推算法,利用最速下降法在线修正遗忘因子,使得估计值有较快的跟踪速度和较小的稳态误差. 仿真结果表明,该TLE生成算法的数据处理速度和轨道预报误差满足要求,可用于低轨目标的天基监视.      

Orbit determination by genetic algorithm and application to GEO observation

This paper demonstrates an initial orbit determination method that solves the problem by a genetic algorithm using two well-known solutions for the Lambert’s problem: universal variable method and Battin method. This paper also suggests an intuitive error evaluation method in terms of rotational angle and orbit shape by separating orbit elements into two groups. As reference orbit, mean orbit elements (original two-lines elements) and osculating orbit elements considering the J2 effect are adopted and compared. Our proposed orbit determination method has been tested with actual optical observations of a geosynchronous spacecraft. It should be noted that this demonstration of the orbit determination is limited to one test case. This observation was conducted during approximately 70 min on 2013/05/15 UT. Our method was compared with the orbit elements propagated by SGP4 using the TLE of the spacecraft. The result indicates that our proposed method had a slightly better performance on estimating orbit shape than Gauss’s methods and Escobal’s method by 120 km. In addition, the result of the rotational angle is closer to the osculating orbit elements than the mean orbit elements by 0.02°, which supports that the estimated orbit is valid.     

ESA’s process for the identification and assessment of high-risk conjunction events

ESA’s Space Debris Office provides an operational service for the assessment of collision risks of ESA satellites. Currently, the ENVISAT and ERS-2 missions in low Earth orbits are covered by this service. If an upcoming high-risk conjunction event is predicted based on analysis of Two-Line Element (TLE) data from the US Space Surveillance Network, then independent tracking data of the potential high-risk conjunction object are acquired to improve the knowledge of its orbit. This improved knowledge and the associated small error covariances derived from the orbit determination process scale down the position error ellipsoid at the conjunction epoch. Hence, for the same miss-distance, in most cases an avoidance manoeuvre can be suppressed with an acceptable residual risk.     

卫星初始轨道确定方法研究

卫星精密轨道确定过程实际上是通过求解轨道动力学微分方程组而对初始轨道不断改进的过程,因此,轨道确定的精度与速度不但依赖于求解微分方程组的具体算法,同样依赖于初始轨道的精度与准确性。针对多站测距/距离和数据,建立了一种轨道初值计算的几何方法,该方法集折射误差修正方法于一体,在进行观测数据折射误差修正的基础上,可以得到卫星在任意时刻的轨道初值。