Improved orbit predictions using two-line elements

The density of orbital space debris constitutes an increasing environmental challenge. There are two ways to alleviate the problem: debris mitigation and debris removal. This paper addresses collision avoidance, a key aspect of debris mitigation. We describe a method that contributes to achieving a requisite increase in orbit prediction accuracy for objects in the publicly available two-line element (TLE) catalog. Batch least-squares differential correction is applied to the TLEs. Using a high-precision numerical propagator, we fit an orbit to state vectors derived from successive TLEs. We then propagate the fitted orbit further forward in time. These predictions are validated against precision ephemeris data derived from the international laser ranging service (ILRS) for several satellites, including objects in the congested sun-synchronous orbital region. The method leads to a predicted range error that increases at a typical rate of 100 m per day, approximately a 10-fold improvement over individual TLE’s propagated with their associated analytic propagator (SGP4). Corresponding improvements for debris trajectories could potentially provide conjunction analysis sufficiently accurate for an operationally viable collision avoidance system based on TLEs only.     

Modeling satellite drag coefficients with response surfaces

Satellite drag coefficients are a major source of uncertainty in predicting the drag force on satellites in low Earth orbit. Among other things, accurately predicting the orbit requires detailed knowledge of the satellite drag coefficient. Computational methods are an important tool in computing the drag coefficient but are too intensive for real-time and predictive applications. Therefore, analytic or empirical models that can accurately predict drag coefficients are desired. This work uses response surfaces to model drag coefficients. The response surface methodology is validated by developing a response surface model for the drag coefficient of a sphere where the closed-form solution is known. The response surface model performs well in predicting the drag coefficient of a sphere with a root mean square percentage error less than 0.3% over the entire parameter space. For more complex geometries, such as the GRACE satellite, the Hubble Space Telescope, and the International Space Station, the model errors are only slightly larger at about 0.9%, 0.6%, and 1.0%, respectively.     

Accurate orbit predictions for debris orbit manoeuvre using ground-based lasers

Orbit manoeuvre of low Earth orbiting (LEO) debris using ground-based lasers has been proposed as a cost-effective means to avoid debris collisions. This requires the orbit of the debris object to be determined and predicted accurately so that the laser beam can be locked on the debris without the loss of valuable laser operation time. This paper presents the method and results of a short-term accurate LEO (<900 km in altitude) debris orbit prediction study using sparse laser ranging data collected by the EOS Space Debris Tracking System (SDTS). A main development is the estimation of the ballistic coefficients of the LEO objects from their archived long-term two line elements (TLE). When an object is laser tracked for two passes over about 24 h, orbit prediction (OP) accuracy of 10–20 arc seconds for the next 24–48 h can be achieved – the accuracy required for laser debris manoeuvre. The improvements in debris OP accuracy are significant in other applications such as debris conjunction analyses and the realisation of daytime debris laser tracking.     

Survey-only optical strategies for cataloguing space debris objects in the future European space surveillance system

In the framework of a potential European Space Situational Awareness System (ESSAS), we propose some optical strategies such that try to minimize the requirement of tracking measurements for the orbit determination computation when the catalogue is under construction. We will analyse them in terms of coverage, timeliness and orbit determination accuracy by means of the AS4 simulator (developed by Deimos Space S.L.U.). Moreover, observation campaigns have been performed from La Sagra Observatory in order to check the applicability of those strategies. These strategies are used for defining different choices for the future European Optical Space Surveillance System in the framework of the ESA contract no. 22738/09/D/HK.     

Feasibility of performing space surveillance tasks with a proposed space-based optical architecture

Under ESA contract an industrial consortium including Aboa Space Research Oy (ASRO), the Astronomical Institute of the University of Bern (AIUB), and the Dutch National Aerospace Laboratory (NLR), proposed the observation concept, developed a suitable sensor architecture, and assessed the performance of a space-based optical (SBO) telescope in 2005. The goal of the SBO study was to analyse how the existing knowledge gap in the space debris population in the millimetre and centimetre regime may be closed by means of a passive optical instrument. The SBO instrument was requested to provide statistical information on the space debris population in terms of number of objects and size distribution. The SBO instrument was considered to be a cost-efficient with 20 cm aperture and 6° field-of-view and having flexible integration requirements. It should be possible to integrate the SBO instrument easily as a secondary payload on satellites launched into low-Earth orbits (LEO), or into geostationary orbit (GEO). Thus the selected mission concept only allowed for fix-mounted telescopes, and the pointing direction could be requested freely. Since 2007 ESA focuses space surveillance and tracking activities in the Space Situational Awareness (SSA) preparatory program. Ground-based radars and optical telescopes are studied for the build-up and maintenance of a catalogue of objects. In this paper we analyse how the proposed SBO architecture could contribute to the space surveillance tasks survey and tracking. We assume that the SBO instrumentation is placed into a circular sun-synchronous orbit at 800 km altitude. We discuss the observation conditions of objects at higher altitude, and select an orbit close to the terminator plane. A pointing of the sensor orthogonal to the orbital plane with optimal elevation slightly in positive direction (0° and +5°) is found optimal for accessing the entire GEO regime within one day, implying a very good coverage of controlled objects in GEO, too. Simulations using ESA’s Program for Radar and Optical Observation Forecasting (PROOF) in the version 2005 and a GEO reference population extracted from DISCOS revealed that the proposed pointing scenario provides low phase angles together with low angular velocities of the objects crossing the field-of-view. Radiometric simulations show that the optimal exposure time is 1–2 s, and that spherical objects in GEO with a diameter of below 1 m can be detected. The GEO population can be covered under proper illumination nearly completely, but seasonal drops of the coverage are possible. Subsequent observations of objects are on average at least every 1.5 days, not exceeding 3 days at maximum. A single observation arc spans 3° to 5° on average. Using a simulation environment that connects PROOF to AIUB’s program system CelMech we verify the consistency of the initial orbit determination for five selected test objects on subsequent days as a function of realistic astrometric noise levels. The initial orbit determination is possible. We define requirements for a correlator process essential for catalogue build-up and maintenance. Each single observation should provide an astrometric accuracy of at least 1”–1.5” so that the initially determined orbits are consistent within a few hundred kilometres for the semi-major axis, 0.01 for the eccentricity, and 0.1° for the inclination.     

The Space Environment Monitors of Shenzhou Manned Spacecrafts

For the purpose of ensuring normal operations of Shenzhou (SZ) series of manned spacecrafts and cosmonauts' safety, Space Environment Monitors (SEM)are mounted on board SZ-2, 3, 4, 5. SEMs aim to detect the high energy particles, the low energy particles, charging potential, atmospheric desity and composition. Detection of SEMs enable us to understand better the space environment in the manned spacecraft's orbit, and to provide a good space environment services for the spacecraft and cosmonauts. In addition, by using the data from SEMs, we have achieved some scientific accomplishments, such as the energy spectra of precipitating electrons, the abnormal variety of atmospheric density and composition during geomagnetic disturbances, the electron angle distribution in the low orbit and so on.     

Development of in-situ Space Debris Detector

Due to high relative velocities, collisions of spacecraft in orbit with Space Debris (SD) or Micrometeoroids (MM) can lead to payload degradation, anomalies as well as failures in spacecraft operation, or even loss of mission. Flux models and impact risk assessment tools, such as MASTER (Meteoroid and Space Debris Terrestrial Environment Reference) or ORDEM (Orbital Debris Engineering Model), and ESABASE2 or BUMPER II are used to analyse mission risk associated with these hazards. Validation of flux models is based on measured data. Currently, as most of the SD and MM objects are too small (millimeter down to micron sized) for ground-based observations (e.g. radar, optical), the only available data for model validation is based upon retrieved hardware investigations e.g. Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF), Hubble Space Telescope (HST), European Retrievable Carrier (EURECA). Since existing data sets are insufficient, further in-situ experimental investigation of the SD and MM populations are required. This paper provides an overview and assessment of existing and planned SD and MM impact detectors. The detection area of the described detectors is too small to adequately provide the missing data sets. Therefore an innovative detection concept is proposed that utilises existing spacecraft components for detection purposes. In general, solar panels of a spacecraft provide a large area that can be utilised for in-situ impact detection. By using this method on several spacecraft in different orbits the detection area can be increased significantly and allow the detection of SD and MM objects with diameters as low as 100 μm. The design of the detector is based on damage equations from HST and EURECA solar panels. An extensive investigation of those panels was performed by ESA and is summarized within this paper. Furthermore, an estimate of the expected sensitivity of the patented detector concept as well as examples for its implementation into large and small spacecraft are presented.     

Space Environment Prediction for SZ-4 and SZ-5

The Space Environment Prediction Center (SEPC) of the Center for Space Science and Applied Research of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CSSAR, CAS)took on the mission of offering the space environment parameters which may be of use to the safety of manned spacecraft. In order to complete the space environment safety guarantee mission for SZ-4 and SZ-5, SEPC improved the space environment monitoring system, database system, prediction result display system, prediction implementation system, etc. For guaranteeing the safety of the airship and cosmonaut in the first manned SZ-5, flying experiment mission,SEPC developed the software for analyzing radiation dose and early-warning software for large debris collision with SZ-5. Three months before the flights of SZ-4 and SZ-5, SEPC began to predict the safe launch period in view of the space environment, and offered timely and valid reference opinions for selecting the safety period. Especially during the mission of SZ-5, SEPC analyzed the space high-energy environment in a pre-arranged orbit and abnormal orbit andevaluated the radiation dose which cosmonauts may encounter in space. The evaluation offered an important reference for cosmonaut safety and decisionmaking in the SZ-5 mission. The calculation of the distribution of large debris and the collision risk assessment at different orbit entry times for SZ-5 provided an important base for the superior department to make flight decisions.     

Disposal orbits for GEO spacecraft: A method for evaluating the orbit height distributions resulting from implementing IADC guidelines

Geostationary orbit (GEO) is the most commercially valuable Earth orbit. The Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC) has produced guidelines to help protect this region from space debris. The guidelines propose moving a satellite at the end of its operational life to a disposal orbit, which is designed so that satellites left there will not infringe the operational GEO region within a period of at least 100 yr.     

World Space Observatory-Ultraviolet: ISSIS,the imaging instrument

The Imaging and Slitless Spectroscopy Instrument (ISSIS) will be flown as part of the science instrumentation in the World Space Observatory-Ultraviolet (WSO-UV). ISSIS will be the first UV imager to operate in a high Earth orbit from a 2 m class space telescope. In this contribution, the science driving the ISSIS design and the main characteristics of this instrument are presented.     

轨/姿控发动机试验数据快速自动处理技术

轨/姿控发动机试验数据需即时提供,大量数据的快速自动处理技术未见报道。在简述了高空模拟试验特点、Pacific6000原理及数据文件结构后,分析了当前计算方法优缺点;在此基础上,将网络脚本语言的设计思想引入试验数据处理过程,提出了实现数据快速处理的数据流式算法,进而形成自动处理技术;基于此算法开发了工程应用软件,在实际试验中应用,取得了良好效果。该技术对类似计算和海量数据的快速处理具重要工程参考意义。     

Space Weather applications with CDPP/AMDA

AMDA (Automated Multi-Dataset Analysis), a new data analysis service, recently opened at the French Plasma Physics Data Center (CDPP). AMDA is developed according to the Virtual Observatory paradigm: it is a web-based facility for on-line analyses of space physics. Data may come from its own local database as well as remote ones. This tool allows the user to perform classical manipulations such as data visualization, parameter computation and data extraction. AMDA also offers innovative functionalities such as event searches on the content of the data in either visual or automated ways, generation, use and management of time tables (event lists). The general functionalities of AMDA are presented in the context of Space Weather with example scientific use cases.     

Propagation errors analysis of TLE data

Orbit position uncertainty is an important factor for collision avoidance issues. For a single object with high frequency historical data, we can attain its position uncertainty easily. But sometimes data is not enough for errors analysis, orbits need to be classified. In this paper error analysis is made from two-line element sets data (TLEs). The Simplified General Perturbations-4 (SGP4) propagator was used. Statistical errors of debris and R/B are given for lower-altitude orbits which are classified by perigee altitude and eccentricity. The errors results and analysis for SSO (the Sun synchronous orbit) typical orbits are obtained. At last atmospheric drag as a main cause of downrange errors in lower-altitude orbit is analyzed. BSTAR in TLEs is modified to improve prediction precision.     

Mathematical description of the NaK model for MASTER-2005

The release of NaK droplets has been modeled for the new version of the European Meteoroid and Space Debris Terrestrial Environment Reference model MASTER-2005. Previously published versions of the model have been revised. The parameters of the model are introduced and discussed. NaK droplets consist of eutectic sodium–potassium alloy and have been released during RORSAT reactor core ejections. They contributed to the space debris environment in the centimeter and millimeter size regime. Sixteen nuclear powered RORSATs launched between 1980 and 1988 activated a reactor core ejection system in Sufficiently High Orbits (SHO), mostly between 900 and 950 km altitude. The core ejection caused an opening of the primary coolant circuit. The liquid coolant has been released into space during these core ejections. The outflow is considered as a discrete event for each of the sixteen core ejections in total. The NaK coolant has been forming droplets up to a diameter of 5.5 cm. NaK releases are restricted to a very narrow region near 65° inclination. This paper gives the parameters of the NaK release model as it is implemented in MASTER-2005. The quantitative values of all model parameters including characteristic diameter and uniformity parameter are presented. The ratio of the characteristic droplet size to the orifice diameter is discussed. It is estimated that altogether 128 kg of NaK-78 (8 kg per RORSAT) was released on orbit. Simulation runs show that there are still 45,000 droplets with a total mass of 97 kg in orbit at the reference epoch 1 May 2005, whereas the smallest droplet has a diameter of 5 mm. Results of orbit propagation simulation runs are presented in terms of spatial density.     

Uncertainty-aware Cube algorithm for medium-term collision risk assessment

The number of Earth orbiting objects is constantly growing, and some orbital regions are becoming risky environments for space assets of interest, which are increasingly threatened by accidental collisions with other objects, especially in Low-Earth Orbit (LEO). Collision risk assessment is performed by various methods, both covariance and non-covariance based. The Cube algorithm is a non-covariance-based method used to estimate the collision rates between space objects, whose concept consists in dividing the space in cubes of fixed dimension and, at each time instant, checking if two or more objects share the same cube. Up to now its application has been limited to the long-term scenarios of orbital debris evolutionary models, where considering the uncertainties is not necessary and impractical. Within operative contexts, instead, medium-term collision risk analysis may be an important task, in which the propagation-related uncertainties play a prominent role, but the timescale poses challenges for the application of standard covariance-based conjunction analysis techniques. In this framework, this paper presents an approach for the evaluation of the medium-term collision frequency for objects in LEO, called Uncertainty-aware Cube method. It is a modified version of the Cube, able to take the possible errors in the space objects’ position into account for the detection of the conjunctions. As an object’s orbit is propagated, the along-track position error grows more and more, and each object could potentially be in a different position with respect to the one determined by numerical propagation and, thus, in a different cube. Considering the uncertainties, at each time instant the algorithm associates more than one cube to each object and checks if they share at least one cube. If so, a conjunction is detected and a degree of confidence is evaluated. The performance of the method is assessed in different LEO scenarios and compared to the original Cube method.     

Highly Elliptical Orbits for Arctic observations: Assessment of ionizing radiation

The ionizing radiation environment was analyzed for a variety of potential Highly Elliptical Orbits (HEOs) with orbital periods ranging from 6 h to 24 h suitable to continuously monitor the Arctic region. Several models available from the ESA Space Environment Information System (SPENVIS) online tool were employed, including the new-generation AE9/AP9 model for trapped radiation. Results showed that the Total Ionizing Dose (TID) has a well-pronounced local minimum for the 14-h orbit, which is nearly identical to the overall minimum observed for the longest orbital period (24 h). The thickness of slab aluminum shielding required to keep the annual TID below 10, 5 and 3.33 krad (i.e. 150, 75 and 50 krad for 15 years of mission duration) for a 14-h orbit is 2.1, 2.7 and 3.1 mm respectively. The 16-h orbit requires an additional 0.5 mm of aluminum to achieve the same results, while the 24-h orbit requires less shielding in the order of 0.2–0.3 mm. Comparison between the AE8/AP8 and AE9/AP9 models was conducted for all selected orbits. Results demonstrated that differences ranged from −70% to +170% depending on orbit geometry.     

ERS-1 and ERS-2 operational and precise orbit determination

This paper presents the European Space Operations Centre's orbit determination and prediction systems for the ERS-1 mission. The routine operational orbit determination and prediction subsystem is discussed briefly, and statistics of the accuracy compared to the requirements are given. The precise orbit determination subsystem is then described, and the accuracy of its results are compared to those of the operational orbit system and to the D-PAF preliminary orbit solutions. Some geophysical results from the altimeter data, processed in these orbit determinations, are also presented. The ESOC/OAD ‘ERS-1 Orbit Report’ is introduced as a document providing this information on a monthly basis. Finally, this paper describes how the experience gained with the precise orbit determination will be exploited to further improve the accuracy of the routine system that will be used for ERS-2, and provides an estimate of this accuracy.     

Study of the radiation fields in LEO with the Space Application of Timepix Radiation Monitor (SATRAM)

We present the analysis of data taken by the Space Application of Timepix Radiation Monitor (SATRAM). It is centred on a Timepix detector (300?$\mathrm{\mu }$m thick silicon sensor, pixel pitch 55?$\mathrm{\mu }$m, 256?×?256 pixels). It was flown on Proba-V, an Earth observing satellite of the European Space Agency (ESA) from an altitude of 820?km on a sun-synchronous orbit, launched on May 7, 2013. A Monte Carlo simulation was conducted to determine the detector response to electrons (0.5–7?MeV) and protons (10–400?MeV) in an omnidirectional field taking into account the shielding of the detector housing and the satellite. With the help of the simulation, a strategy was developed to separate electrons, protons and ions in the data. The measured dose rate and stopping power distribution are presented as well as SATRAM’s capability to measure some of the stronger events in Earth’s magnetosphere. The stopping power, the cluster height and the shape of the particle tracks in the sensor were used to separate electrons, protons and ions. The results are presented as well. Finally, the pitch angles for a short period of time were extracted from the data and corrected with the angular response determined by the simulation.