空间碎片环境与碰撞预警仿真系统设计

在轨编目航天器数目已超过了9000,为了保证航天任务的顺利完成,必须对可能威胁到任务轨道的空间目标进行分析,文章首先对两行轨道根数和SGP4／SDP4轨道预报模型进行了分析,在此基础上建立了空间目标数据库及空间碎片环境与碰撞预警仿真和数据可视化系统。     

利用卫星两行轨道根数反演热层密度

两行轨道根数（TLEs）是基于一般摄动理论产生的用于预报地球轨道飞行器位置和速度的一组轨道参数,通过求解大气阻力微分方程,可反演出热层大气密度. 本文选取近圆轨道CHAMP卫星和椭圆轨道Explorer8卫星,以两行轨道根数数据为基础,计算反弹道系数,并根据不同轨道特征采用两种不同反演方法对热层大气密度进行研究. 结果表明,这两种方法反演得到的大气密度与实测值均符合较好,其中CHAMP卫星的反演结果和经验模式值相对于实测值的误差分别为7.94%和13.94%,Explorer8卫星的误差分别为9.04%和14.32%. 相比模式值,利用两行轨道根数数据反演的热层大气密度更接近于实测值,说明该方法可以作为获取大量可靠大气密度数据的一种有效途径.      

Improved orbit predictions using two-line elements

The density of orbital space debris constitutes an increasing environmental challenge. There are two ways to alleviate the problem: debris mitigation and debris removal. This paper addresses collision avoidance, a key aspect of debris mitigation. We describe a method that contributes to achieving a requisite increase in orbit prediction accuracy for objects in the publicly available two-line element (TLE) catalog. Batch least-squares differential correction is applied to the TLEs. Using a high-precision numerical propagator, we fit an orbit to state vectors derived from successive TLEs. We then propagate the fitted orbit further forward in time. These predictions are validated against precision ephemeris data derived from the international laser ranging service (ILRS) for several satellites, including objects in the congested sun-synchronous orbital region. The method leads to a predicted range error that increases at a typical rate of 100 m per day, approximately a 10-fold improvement over individual TLE’s propagated with their associated analytic propagator (SGP4). Corresponding improvements for debris trajectories could potentially provide conjunction analysis sufficiently accurate for an operationally viable collision avoidance system based on TLEs only.     

基于单纯形法的TLE轨道确定

TLE数据库是目前公开获得轨道信息的唯一来源，其包含的空间目标将持续增加.利用TLE数据库获得精确的定轨结果已成为研究重点.由于TLE数据本身精度未知且存在波动，需要利用历史TLE数据对参考时刻的TLE状态进行轨道确定.常用方法为最小二乘法，但是该方法具有局限性，需要较为精确的初始值，且误差评估不可靠，解易产生发散.为克服现有方法的局限性，本文提出了一种局部搜索算法——单纯形调优法来实现TLE轨道确定.为避免构建的初始单纯形搜索得到的最优解属于局部最优，引入蒙特卡罗方法对初始单纯形进行采样，获得一系列解的统计分布，通过求该分布的期望和方差获得最终结果.研究结果表明，将单纯形调优法获得的结果用于传播预报可显著降低位置和速度误差.      

Track-to-object association algorithm based on TLE filtering

This paper focuses on the track-to-object association problem based on the two-line elements (TLE) set. The TLE’s short-term propagation error characteristics are analyzed to capture its uncertainty. Further, a four-step track-to-object association algorithm is designed for the optical observation data. First, for too-short arc tracklets, a circular orbit determination algorithm is proposed to calculate the inclination and the right ascension of the ascending node. Second, the TLEs are filtered based on these results. Nearly 96% of the TLEs can be filtered, which significantly improves the association efficiency. The last two steps consist of two association processes. A first-order association process is implemented first to get candidate objects, with the angles root mean square error as the metric. Then a precise association process checks the candidate objects and gives the final association result. The proposed approach is tested with simulated and observed data, respectively. With simulated data, the true positive rate is 98.7%. With the observed data, the association results were validated using the precise orbit ephemerides.     

On prediction of re-entry time of an upper stage from GTO

The evolution of objects in geostationary transfer orbit (GTO) is determined by a complex interplay of atmospheric drag and luni-solar gravity. These orbits are highly eccentric (eccentricity >0.7) and have large variations in velocity and perturbations during a revolution. The periodic changes in the perigee altitudes of these orbits are mainly due to the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and the Moon. The re-entry time of the objects in such orbits is sensitive to the initial conditions. The aim of this paper is to study the re-entry time of the cryogenic stage of the Indian geo-synchronous launch vehicle, GSLV-F04/CS, which has been decaying since 2 September 2007 from initial orbit with eccentricity equal to 0.706. Two parameters, initial eccentricity and ballistic coefficient, are chosen for optimal estimation. It is known that the errors are more in eccentricity for the observations based on two line elements (TLEs). These two parameters are computed with response surface method using a genetic algorithm for the selected eight different zones, based on rough linear variation of the mean apogee altitude during 200 days orbit evolution. The study shows that the GSLV-F04/CS will re-enter between 5 December 2010 and 7 January 2011. The methodology is also applied to study the re-entry of six decayed objects (cryogenic stages of GSLV and Molniya satellites). Good agreement is noticed between the actual and the predicted re-entry times. The absolute percentage error in re-entry prediction time for all the six objects is found to be less than 7%. The present methodology is being adopted at Vikram Sarabhai Space Centre (VSSC) to predict the re-entry time of GSLV-F04/CS.     

连续波雷达多站跟踪数据的时间对齐与轨道解算

连续波雷达是目前外火箭轨道测量的主要高精度设备。由于各种原因,各测站的时间不能完全一致,导致轨道解算的误差。文章对测量机理和时间不对齐量进行分析,利用轨道参数可以用多项式表述的特点,建立了一个估计时间不对齐量和轨道多项式系数的非线性回归模型,给出了参数估计方法和估计的误差。理论分析和模拟计算表明,用该方法可以给出轨道参数和各站时间不对齐量较高精度的估计。     

Orbital error propagation considering atmospheric density uncertainty

Due to the influence of various errors, the orbital uncertainty propagation of artificial celestial objects while orbit prediction is required, especially in some applications such as conjunction analysis. In the orbital error propagation of artificial celestial objects in low Earth orbits (LEOs), atmospheric density uncertainty is one of the important factors that require special attention. In this paper, on the basis of considering the uncertainties of position and velocity, the atmospheric density uncertainty is also taken into account to further investigate the orbital error propagation of artificial celestial objects in LEOs. Artificial intelligence algorithms are introduced, the MC Dropout neural network and the heteroscedastic loss function are used to realize the correction of the empirical atmospheric density model, as well as to provide the quantification of model uncertainty and input uncertainty for the corrected atmospheric densities. It is shown that the neural network we built achieves good results in atmospheric density correction, and the uncertainty quantization obtained from the neural network is also reasonable. Moreover, using the Gaussian mixture model - unscented transform (GMM-UT) method, the atmospheric density uncertainty is taken into account in the orbital uncertainty propagation, by adding a sampled random term to the corrected atmospheric density when calculating atmospheric density. The feasibility of the GMM-UT method considering atmospheric density uncertainty is proved by the further comparison of abundant sampling points and GMM-UT results (with and without considering atmospheric density uncertainty).     

SPOT-2 and TOPEX/Poseidon precise orbit determination from DORIS doppler tracking

The French earth observation satellite SPOT-2 has served as a testbed for precise orbit determination from DORIS doppler tracking in anticipation of the TOPEX/Poseidon mission. Using the most up-to-data gravity field model, JGM-2, a radial orbit accuracy of about 2–9 cm was achieved, with an rms of fit of the tracking data of about 0.64 mm/s. Furthermore, it was found that the coordinates of the ground stations can be determined with an accuracy of the order of 2–5 cm after removal of common rotations, and translations.

Using a slightly different model for atmospheric drag, but the same gravity model, precise orbits of TOPEX/Poseidon from DORIS tracking data were determined with a radial orbit accuracy of the order of 4–5 cm, which is far within the 13 cm mission requirement. This conclusion is based on the analysis of 1-day overlap of successive 11-day orbits, and the comparisons with orbits computed from satellite laser tracking (SLR) and from the combination of SLR and DORIS tracking. Results indicate a consistency between the different orbits of 1–4 cm, 4–20 cm, and 6–13 cm in the radial, cross-track, and along-track directions, respectively. The residual rms is about 4–5 cm for SLR data and 0.56 mm/s for DORIS tracking. These numbers are roughly twice as large as the system noise levels, reflecting the fact that there are still some modeling errors left.     

Achievable debris orbit prediction accuracy using laser ranging data from a single station

Earlier studies have shown that an orbit prediction accuracy of 20 arc sec ground station pointing error for 1–2 day predictions was achievable for low Earth orbit (LEO) debris using two passes of debris laser ranging (DLR) data from a single station, separated by about 24 h. The accuracy was determined by comparing the predicted orbits with subsequent tracking data from the same station. This accuracy statement might be over-optimistic for other parts of orbit far away from the station. This paper presents the achievable orbit prediction accuracy using satellite laser ranging (SLR) data of Starlette and Larets under a similar data scenario as that of DLR. The SLR data is corrupted with random errors of 1 m standard deviation so that its accuracy is similar to that of DLR data. The accurate ILRS Consolidated Prediction Format orbits are used as reference to compute the orbit prediction errors. The study demonstrates that accuracy of 20 arc sec for 1–2 day predictions is achievable.     

Optimising filtering of two-line element sets to increase re-entry prediction accuracy for GTO objects

Predicting re-entry epoch of space objects enables managing the risk to ground population. Predictions are particularly difficult for objects in highly-elliptical orbits, and important for objects with components that can survive re-entry, e.g. rocket bodies (R/Bs). This paper presents a methodology to filter two-line element sets (TLEs) to facilitate accurate re-entry prediction of such objects. Difficulties in using TLEs for precise analyses are highlighted and a set of filters that identifies erroneous element sets is developed. The filter settings are optimised using an artificially generated TLE time series. Optimisation results are verified on real TLEs by analysing the automatically found outliers for exemplar R/Bs. Based on a study of 96 historical re-entries, it is shown that TLE filtering is necessary on all orbital elements that are being used in a given analysis in order to avoid considerably inaccurate results.     

Characteristics of GOCE orbits based on Satellite Laser Ranging

The Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer (GOCE) was the first European Space Agency’s (ESA) Earth Explorer core mission. Through its extremely low, about 260?km above the Earth, circular, sun-synchronous orbit, the satellite gained high spatial resolution and accuracy gravity gradient, and ocean circulation data. Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers, mounted on the spacecraft, allowed the determination of reduced-dynamic and kinematic GOCE orbits, whereas Laser Retroreflector Array (LRA) dedicated to Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) allowed an independent validation of GPS-derived orbits. In this paper, residuals between different GPS-based orbit types and SLR observations are used to investigate the sensitivity and the influence of solar, geomagnetic, and ionospheric activities on the quality of kinematic and reduced-dynamic GOCE orbits. We also analyze the quality of data provided by individual SLR sites, by detecting time biases using ascending and descending sun-synchronous GOCE orbit passes, and the residual analysis of the measurement characteristics, i.e., the dependency of SLR residuals as a function of nadir and horizontal angles. Results show a substantial vulnerability of kinematic orbit solutions to the solar F10.7 index and the ionospheric activity measured by the variations of the Total Electron Content (TEC) values. The sensitivity of kinematic orbits to the three-hour-range KP index is rather minor. The reduced-dynamic orbits are almost insensitive to indices describing ionospheric, solar, and geomagnetic activities. The investigation of individual SLR sites shows that some of them are affected by time bias errors, whereas other demonstrate systematics, such as a dependency between observation residuals and the satellite nadir angle or the horizontal azimuth angle from the SLR station to the direction of the satellite.     

Orbit insertion error analysis for a space-based gravitational wave observatory

Constellation is required to be highly stable over several years for a space-based gravitational wave observatory. However, the stability of the constellation can be affected by orbit insertion errors. The effects of orbit insertion errors on the constellation are mainly studied in this paper. Firstly, Monte-Carlo, Unscented Transformation Covariance Analysis Method (UTCAM) and Spherical Simplex Unscented Transformation Covariance Analysis Method (SSUTCAM) are used for simulation. The results indicate that UTCAM and SSUTCAM are highly efficient in calculating, with a relative error of less than 6%. Therefore, it is concluded that because of their accuracy and high efficiency, UTCAM and SSUTCAM can be adequately used in orbit insertion error analysis for a space-based gravitational wave observatory. Secondly, SSUTCAM is used to study the effects of position and velocity errors on the constellation. For the case in this paper, when the position error does not exceed 300 km, and the velocity error does not exceed 4 cm/s, the constellation remains stable.     

Modeling of LEO orbital debris populations for ORDEM2008

The NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model, ORDEM2000, is in the process of being updated to a new version: ORDEM2008. The data-driven ORDEM covers a spectrum of object size from 10 μm to greater than 1 m, and ranging from LEO (low Earth orbit) to GEO (geosynchronous orbit) altitude regimes. ORDEM2008 centimeter-sized populations are statistically derived from Haystack and HAX (the Haystack Auxiliary) radar data, while micron-sized populations are estimated from shuttle impact records. Each of the model populations consists of a large number of orbits with specified orbital elements, the number of objects on each orbit (with corresponding uncertainty), and the size, type, and material assignment for each object. This paper describes the general methodology and procedure commonly used in the statistical inference of the ORDEM2008 LEO debris populations. Major steps in the population derivations include data analysis, reference-population construction, definition of model parameters in terms of reference populations, linking model parameters with data, seeking best estimates for the model parameters, uncertainty analysis, and assessment of the outcomes. To demonstrate the population-derivation process and to validate the Bayesian statistical model applied in the population derivations throughout, this paper uses illustrative examples for the special cases of large-size (>1 m, >32 cm, and >10 cm) populations that are tracked by SSN (the Space Surveillance Network) and also monitored by Haystack and HAX radars operating in a staring mode.     

Families of halo orbits in the elliptic restricted three-body problem for a solar sail with reflectivity control devices

Solar sail halo orbits designed in the Sun-Earth circular restricted three-body problem (CR3BP) provide inefficient reference orbits for station-keeping since the disturbance due to the eccentricity of the Earth’s orbit has to be compensated for. This paper presents a strategy to compute families of halo orbits around the collinear artificial equilibrium points in the Sun-Earth elliptic restricted three-body problem (ER3BP) for a solar sail with reflectivity control devices (RCDs). In this non-autonomous model, periodic halo orbits only exist when their periods are equal to integer multiples of one year. Here multi-revolution halo orbits with periods equal to integer multiples of one year are constructed in the CR3BP and then used as seeds to numerically continue the halo orbits in the ER3BP. The linear stability of the orbits is analyzed which shows that the in-plane motion is unstable while the out-of-plane motion is neutrally stable and a bifurcation is identified. Finally, station-keeping is performed which shows that a reference orbit designed in the ER3BP is significantly more efficient than that designed in the CR3BP, while the addition of RCDs improve station-keeping performance and robustness to uncertainty in the sail lightness number.     

Impact of ITRS 2014 realizations on altimeter satellite precise orbit determination

This paper evaluates orbit accuracy and systematic error for altimeter satellite precise orbit determination on TOPEX, Jason-1, Jason-2 and Jason-3 by comparing the use of four SLR/DORIS station complements from the International Terrestrial Reference System (ITRS) 2014 realizations with those based on ITRF2008. The new Terrestrial Reference Frame 2014 (TRF2014) station complements include ITRS realizations from the Institut National de l’Information Géographique et Forestière (IGN) ITRF2014, the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) JTRF2014, the Deutsche Geodätisches Forschungsinstitut (DGFI) DTRF2014, and the DORIS extension to ITRF2014 for Precise Orbit Determination, DPOD2014. The largest source of error stems from ITRF2008 station position extrapolation past the 2009 solution end time. The TRF2014 SLR/DORIS complement impact on the ITRF2008 orbit is only 1–2 mm RMS radial difference between 1992–2009, and increases after 2009, up to 5 mm RMS radial difference in 2016. Residual analysis shows that station position extrapolation error past the solution span becomes evident even after two years, and will contribute to about 3–4 mm radial orbit error after seven years. Crossover data show the DTRF2014 orbits are the most accurate for the TOPEX and Jason-2 test periods, and the JTRF2014 orbits for the Jason-1 period. However for the 2016 Jason-3 test period only the DPOD2014-based orbits show a strong and statistically significant margin of improvement. The positive results with DTRF2014 suggest the new approach to correct station positions or normal equations for non-tidal loading before combination is beneficial. We did not find any compelling POD advantage in using non-linear over linear station velocity models in our SLR & DORIS orbit tests on the Jason satellites. The JTRF2014 proof-of-concept ITRS realization demonstrates the need for improved SLR+DORIS orbit centering when compared to the Ries (2013) CM annual model. Orbit centering error is seen as an annual radial signal of 0.4 mm amplitude with the CM model. The unmodeled CM signals show roughly a 1.8 mm peak-to-peak annual variation in the orbit radial component. We find the TRF network stability pertinent to POD can be defined only by examination of the orbit-specific tracking network time series. Drift stability between the ITRF2008 and the other TRF2014-based orbits is very high, the relative mean radial drift error over water is no larger than 0.04 mm/year over 1993–2015. Analyses also show TRF induced orbit error meets current altimeter rate accuracy goals for global and regional sea level estimation.     

ESA’s process for the identification and assessment of high-risk conjunction events

ESA’s Space Debris Office provides an operational service for the assessment of collision risks of ESA satellites. Currently, the ENVISAT and ERS-2 missions in low Earth orbits are covered by this service. If an upcoming high-risk conjunction event is predicted based on analysis of Two-Line Element (TLE) data from the US Space Surveillance Network, then independent tracking data of the potential high-risk conjunction object are acquired to improve the knowledge of its orbit. This improved knowledge and the associated small error covariances derived from the orbit determination process scale down the position error ellipsoid at the conjunction epoch. Hence, for the same miss-distance, in most cases an avoidance manoeuvre can be suppressed with an acceptable residual risk.     

基于驻留时间比的近地空间碎片环境建模

为分析近地空间碎片的分布规律,提出了一种以碎片在空间网格内驻留时间为基础的碎片环境统计建模方法.该方法利用多项式拟合和求根方法统计碎片在空间网格内的停留时间,获取模型基础数据,并据此采用多项式预测、插值和时间序列分析等技术,综合分析空间碎片的分布与演化规律.给出了一个基于双行根数(TLE,Two Line Elements)数据的建模实例,该实例通过了ORDEM2000模型的对比验证,并获得了一些更精细的近地空间碎片环境特征.所得建模方法和分析结论可为长期运行的近地航天器轨道设计、碰撞风险评估及防护等提供技术支撑.     

Assessing attitude error of FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC satellites and its impact on orbit determination

An attitude determination and control system (ADCS) is critical to satellite attitude maneuvers and to the coordinate transformation from the inertial frame to the spacecraft frame. This paper shows specific sensors in the ADCS of the satellite mission FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC (F3/C) and the impact of the ADCS quality on orbit accuracy. The selection of main POD antenna depends on the beta angles of the different F3/C satellites (for FM2 and FM4) during the inflight phase. In particular, under the eclipse, alternative attitude sensors are activated to replace the Sun sensors, and such a sensor change leads to anomalous GPS phase residuals and a degraded orbit accuracy. Since the nominal attitude serves as a reference for ADCS, the 3-dimensional attitude-induced errors in reduced dynamic orbits over selected days in 2010 show 9.35, 10.78, 4.97, 5.48, 7.18, and 6.89 cm for FM1–FM6. Besides, the 3-dimensional velocity errors induced by the attitude effect are 0.10, 0.10, 0.07, 0.08, 0.09, and 0.10 for FM1–FM6. We analyze the quality of the observed attitude transformation matrix of F3/C and its impact on kinematic orbit determination. With 249 days of GPS in 2008, the analysis leads to the following averaged 3-dimensional attitude-induced orbit errors: 2.72, 2.62, 2.37, 1.90, 1.70, and 1.99 cm for satellites FM1–FM6. Critical suggestions of geodetic payloads for the follow-on mission of F3/C are presented based on the current result.