Short-term forecasting regional model to predict M(3000)F2 over the European sector: Comparisons with the IRI model during moderate,disturbed, and very disturbed geomagnetic conditions

The hourly measurements of M(3000)F2 (M(3000)F2_meas) and the hourly quiet-time values of M(3000)F2 (M(3000)F2_QT) relative to the ionospheric observatories of Poitiers, Lannion, Dourbes, Slough, Rome, Juliusruh, Kaliningrad, Uppsala, Lyckesele, Sodankyla, and Kiruna as well as the hourly time-weighted accumulation series derived from the geomagnetic planetary index ap (ap(τ)), were considered during the period January 1957–December 2003 and used for the development of 11 short-term forecasting local models (STFLM) of M(3000)F2.     

Trends in foF2 and the 24th solar activity cycle

The trends in foF2 are analyzed based on the data of Juliusruh and Boulder ionospheric stations. It is shown that using the traditional solar activity index F10.7 leads to an impossible trend in foF2 when the data for the 24th solar activity cycle are included into the analysis. It is assumed that the F10.7 index does not describe correctly the solar ultraviolet radiation variations in that cycle. A correction of this index using the Rz (sunspot number) and Ly (intensity of the Lyman-α line in the solar spectrum) is performed, and it is shown that in that case reasonable values of the foF2 trends are obtained.     

Statistical ionospheric E layer properties measured with the Cyprus Digisonde and comparisons with IRI predictions

This paper reports the diurnal, seasonal, and long term variability of the E layer critical frequency (foE) and peak height (hmE) derived from Digisonde measurements from 2009 to 2016 at the low-middle latitude European station of Nicosia, Cyprus (geographical coordinates: 35°N, 33°E, geomagnetic lat. 29.38°N, I = 51.7°). Manually scaled monthly median values of foE and hmE are compared with IRI-2012 predictions with a view to assess the predictability of IRI. Results show that in general, IRI slightly overestimates foE values both at low and high solar activity. At low solar activity, overestimations are mostly limited to 0.25?MHz (equivalent electron density, 0.775?×?10³?el/m^?3) but can go as high as 0.5?MHz (equivalent electron density, 3.1?×?10³?el/m^?3, during noon) around equinox. In some months, underestimations, though sporadic in nature, up to 0.25?MHz are noted (mostly during sunrise and sunset). At high solar activity, a similar pattern of over-/underestimation is evident. During the entire period of study, over-/under estimations are mostly limited to 0.25?MHz. In very few cases, these exceed 0.25?MHz but are limited to 0.5?MHz. Analysis of hmE reveals that: (1) hmE remains almost constant during ±2 to ±4?h around local noon, (2) hmE values are higher in winter than in spring, summer and autumn, (3) there are two maxima near sunrise and sunset with a noontime minimum in between. During the entire period of study, significant differences between observed hmE and the IRI predictions have been noted. IRI fails to predict hmE and outputs a constant value of 110?km, which is higher than most of the observed values. Over- and under estimations range from 3 to 13?km and from 0 to 3?km respectively.     

Behavior of foF2 prior to geomagnetic storms according to Slough and Juliusruh data

The foF2 deviations from quiet conditions during three days preceding a magnetic storm are considered. The data of the Juliusruh station for the period of 1976–2010 are analyzed, and the results are compared to the similar analysis of the Slough data published earlier. A seasonal dependence of the deviations (events) is found: the probability of the events occurrence is higher in winter than in summer. This probability also depends on solar activity (it decreases with an increase in the F10.7 index) and the magnetic storm intensity (it decreases with an increase in the magnitude of the negative Dst index). The dependence of the events number on the local time of the storm onset (SO) and the time of the event prior to the SO moment is also analyzed. The results for both stations are in a good agreement and confirm the initial concept that the aforementioned events could be considered as precursors of the coming magnetic storm.     

What is the optimum solar proxy for long-term ionospheric investigations?

The problem of optimum solar proxy is important for long-term and/or climatological studies of ionospheric parameters. Here we focus on possibly different optimum solar proxies for different ionospheric parameters, as they are affected by partly different spectral ranges of solar ionizing radiation. We use yearly average values of foF2 and foE of four European stations with long (1976–2014) and high-quality data (Juliusruh, Pruhonice, Rome, Slough/Chilton), and the global total electron content (G-TEC). Four solar proxies are used: F10.7, Mg II, solar Lymna-alpha flux Fα and sunspot numbers. The most important finding is that the optimum solar proxies are different for different ionospheric parameters. The most suitable solar proxy for foF2 is found to be Mg II, whereas for foE F10.7 evidently outperforms Mg II. Fα and sunspot numbers perform slightly worse but none of four solar proxies performs poorly. F10.7 is favored for G-TEC, to some extent surprisingly, as previous results favored rather Mg II.     

Towards a new reference model of hmF2 for IRI

A numerical model of the peak height of the F2 layer, hmF2_top, is derived from the topside sounding database of 90,000 electron density profiles for a representative set of conditions provided by ISIS1, ISIS2, IK19 and Cosmos-1809 satellites for the period of 1969–1987. The model of regular hmF2 variations is produced in terms of local time, season, geomagnetic latitude, geodetic longitude and solar radio flux. No geomagnetic activity trends were discernible in the topside sounding data. The nighttime peak of hmF2_top evident for mid-latitudes disappears near the geomagnetic equator where a maximum of hmF2_top occurs at sunset hours when it can exceed 500 km at solar maximum. The hmF2 given by the IRI exceeds hmF2_top at the low solar activities. The hmF2_top, obtained by extrapolation of the first derivative of the topside profile to zero shows saturation similar to foF2 the greater the solar activity. The proposed model differs from hmF2 given by IRI based on M(3000)F2 to hmF2 conversion by empirical relationships in terms of foF2, foE and R12 with these quantities mapped globally by the ITU-R (former CCIR) from ground-based ionosonde data. The differences can be attributed to the different techniques of the peak height derivation, different epochs and different global distribution of the source data as well as the different mathematical functions involved in the maps and the model presentation.     

Reconstruction of topside density profile by using the topside sounder model profiler and digisonde data

To improve the accuracy of the real time topside electron density profiles given by the Digisonde software a new model-assisted technique is used. This technique uses the Topside Sounder Model (TSM), which provides the plasma scale height (H_s), O⁺–H⁺ transition height (H_T), and their ratio Rt = H_s/H_T, derived from topside sounder data of Alouette and ISIS satellites. The Topside Sounder Model Profiler (TSMP) incorporates TSM and uses the model quantities as anchor points in construction of topside density (Ne) profiles. For any particular location, TSMP calculates topside Ne profiles by specifying the values of foF2 and hmF2. In the present version, TSMP takes the F2 peak characteristics – foF2, hmF2, and the scale height at hmF2 – from the Digisonde measurements. The paper shows results for the Digisonde stations Athens and Juliusruh. It is found that the topside scale height used in Digisonde reconstruction is less than that extracted from topside sounder profiles. Rough comparison of their bulk distributions showed that they differ by an average factor of 1.25 for locations of Athens and Juliusruh. When the Digisonde scale heights are adjusted by this factor, the reconstructed topside profiles are close to those provided by TSM. Compared with CHAMP reconstruction profiles in two cases, TSMP/Digisonde profiles show lower density between 400 and 2000 km.     

Comparing ionospheric models with mid-latitude ionosonde observations

The purpose of this research work is to validate the ionospheric models (IRI and CHIU) to assess its suitability and usefulness as an operational tool. The ionospheric model is a computer model designed to predict the state of the global ionosphere for 24 h. The scope was limited to conduct comparisons between the predicted F₂ layer critical frequencies (f₀F₂) against observed ionosonde data. The ionospheric prediction model (IPM) was designed to predict by using monthly median sunspot number, while the observation data are taken from two digital ionospheric sounding stations (Okinawa, 26.28N, 127.8E and Wakkanai, 45.38N, 141.66E) which lies within the mid-latitude region of the globe. Analysis of the f₀F₂ data from stations for year (2001) with high solar activity and year (2004) with low solar activity, four months (March, June, September and December) chosen based primarily on data availability. From results it seen that the ratio between monthly median predicted and observed f₀F₂ values for each model used in this research work and for the chosen months was nonlinear with local time, so the empirical formula for applying correction factors were determined, these formula can be used to correct the error occurred in predicted f₀F₂ value.     

Improvements in bottomside electron density definition in the Autoscala program

Some improvements introduced in the Autoscala program are presented. They include improvements in E valley modeling of the electron density profile N_e(h), and in the link between the E valley and bottom-side F regions. An abrupt variation in N_e(h) generated by the previous version of Autoscala under night conditions has been eliminated.A series of ionograms recorded by the Millstone Hill digisonde (42.6°, 288.5°) were automatically interpreted by the previous version of Autoscala and by the new one. Data from Incoherent Scatter Radar (ISR) were used to comparatively assess the performance of the two versions. For this purpose, the root mean square errors (RMSEs) of the N_e(h) provided by Autoscala were calculated relative to the corresponding values provided by ISR.A more accurate overall modeling of N_e(h) was achieved by the new Autoscala version (RMSE = 0.51 MHz for the new version against RMSE = 0.67 MHz for the previous one).     

Testing the three-dimensional IRI-SIRMUP-P mapping of the ionosphere for disturbed periods

This paper describes the three-dimensional (3-D) electron density mapping of the ionosphere given as output by the assimilative IRI-SIRMUP-P (ISP) model for three different geomagnetic storms. Results of the 3-D model are shown by comparing the electron density profiles given by the model with the ones measured at two testing ionospheric stations: Roquetes (40.8°N, 0.5°E), Spain, and San Vito (40.6°N, 17.8°E), Italy. The reference ionospheric stations from which the autoscaled foF2 and M(3000)F2 data as well as the real-time vertical electron density profiles are assimilated by the ISP model are those of El Arenosillo (37.1°N, 353.3°E), Spain, Rome (41.8°N, 12.5°E), and Gibilmanna (37.9°N, 14.0°E), Italy. Overall, the representation of the ionosphere made by the ISP model is better than the climatological representation made by only the IRI-URSI and the IRI-CCIR models. However, there are few cases for which the assimilation of the autoscaled data from the reference stations causes either a strong underestimation or a strong overestimation of the real conditions of the ionosphere, which is in these cases better represented by only the IRI-URSI model. This ISP misrepresentation is mainly due to the fact that the reference ionospheric stations covering the region mapped by the model turn out to be few, especially for disturbed periods when the ionosphere is very variable both in time and in space and hence a larger number of stations would be required. The inclusion of new additional reference ionospheric stations could surely smooth out this concern.     

A comparative sporadic-E layer study between two mid-latitude ionospheric stations

Hourly systematic measurements of the highest frequency reflected by the sporadic-E layer (foEs) recorded from January 1976 to June 2009 at the ionospheric stations of Rome (Italy, 41.8°N, 12.5°E) and Gibilmanna (Italy, 37.9°N, 14.0°E) were considered to carry out a comparative study between the sporadic E layer (Es) over Rome and Gibilmanna. Different statistical analysis were performed taking into account foEs observations near the periods of minimum and maximum solar activity. The results reveal that: (1) independently from the solar activity, Es develops concurrently over extended regions in space, instead of being a spatially limited layer which is transported horizontally by neutral winds over a larger area; especially during summer months, when an Es layer is present at Rome, there is a high probability that an Es layer is also present over Gibilmanna, and vice versa; (2) Es layer lifetimes of 1–5 h were found; in particular, Es layers with lifetimes of 5 h both over Gibilmanna and Rome are observed with highest percentages of occurrence in summer ranging between 80% and 90%, independently from the solar activity; (3) latitudinal effects on Es layer occurrence emerge mostly for low solar activity during winter, equinoctial, and summer months, when Es layers are detected more frequently over Gibilmanna rather than Rome; (4) when the presence of an Es layer over Rome and Gibilmanna is not simultaneous, Es layer appearance both over Rome and Gibilmanna confirms to be a locally confined event, because drifting phenomena from Rome to Gibilmanna or vice versa have not been emphasized.     

Variability of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere observed with GPS radio occultation bending angles and temperatures

Recently, Lewis (2009) introduced a new method for the identification of tropopause heights (TPHs) from GPS radio occultation (RO) bending angles (α)$(\alpha )$. The method uses a covariance transform to identify transitions in a ln(α)$\mathit{ln}(\alpha )$ profile. Lewis validates the results with lapse rate tropopause (LRT) heights from one year of FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC data and radiosondes. In this study we apply the new method to the RO data sets from CHAMP/GRACE (2001–2009) and FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC (2006–2009). These results are the basis for TPH trend estimations for the time period between May 2001 and August 2009 (100 months) based on zonal monthly mean GPS RO data from CHAMP (2001–2008), GRACE (since 2006) and FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC (since 2006). Further, we compare the α$\alpha$ based TPH trends with LRT height trends and discuss the differences, which are largest in the subtropical regions (20°–40°) on both the northern and southern hemisphere. A global increase of the TPH between 5 and 9 m/yr is found for both methods and different data sets (CHAMP/GRACE alone and CHAMP/GRACE plus FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC). The results for the TPH trends are linked with bending angle and temperature trends in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere region. Generally, an upper tropospheric warming (bending angle decrease) and a lower stratospheric cooling (bending angle increase) is noted.     

Occurrence of sporadic-E layer over the ionospheric station of Rome: Analysis of data for thirty-two years

Hourly systematic measurements of the highest frequency reflected by the sporadic-E layer (foEs) recorded at the Rome ionospheric observatory (Italy, 41.8° N, 12.5° E), were considered during the period January 1976–December 2007, to calculate the percentage of occurrence of sporadic-E layer with frequencies foEs greater than a given threshold value f_T, P(foEs > f_T).     

Use of TEC global maps and the IRI model to study ionospheric response to geomagnetic disturbances

Period of October–November 2003 provides a wide range of geomagnetic conditions. This paper looks at three intervals: a moderate magnetic disturbance (13–16.10.2003) and two intense magnetic storms (29–31.10 and 20–21.11). One purpose of this paper is to define the behavior of the two parameters of the ionosphere, foF2 (or NmF2) and TEC, in this period. Data of foF2 of European ionosondes and TEC values of global maps for the corresponding coordinates are used. The emphasis is on the study of the synchrony of these parameters, which determine the behavior of the proportionality factor τ(obs) between the TEC and NmF2. The second objective is to compare two methods of determining foF2 during the disturbances, using: (i) the STORM-factor of the IRI model, (ii) the median equivalent slab thickness τ(med), together with the global TEC maps. It is shown that synchrony of variations of TEC and NmF2 does not always exist, which leads to unpredictable behavior of τ(obs). Acceptable option of the calculation of foF2 from TEC is to use τ(med), ensuring compliance with the experimental data better than 0.5 MHz in the case of synchrony, and 1.5 MHz when it does not exist. The relationship between τ(obs) and the plasmaspheric part of the TEC of the IRI-Plas model is considered. A comprehensive investigation of this relationship in cases where no synchrony may contribute to the development of model of τ(obs) during the disturbances.     

Cross-hemisphere comparison of mid-latitude ionospheric variability during 1996–2009: Juliusruh vs. Hobart

Analysis of a long-time series of hourly median characteristics of the ionospheric plasma at two mid-latitude locations in the Northern and Southern hemisphere, Juliusruh (54.6N; 13.4E) and Hobart (42.9S; 147.3E), reveals patterns of their synchronous and independent variability. We studied timelines of GPS vTEC, ionogram-derived F2-layer peak electron density NmF2, ionospheric equivalent slab thickness τ, and their ratios at two locations during the complete 23rd solar cycle and its following period of the extremely low solar activity in 2008–2009. This study has also involved the comparative analysis of the observed data versus the model predictions by IRI-2012. During the high solar activity in 2000–2002, seasonal variations show a complicated cross-hemisphere behavior influenced by the winter and semi-annual anomalies, with the largest noon-time values of TEC and NmF2 observed around equinoxes. Strength of the winter anomaly in NmF2 was significantly greater at Juliusruh in comparison with Hobart. The winter anomaly in GPS vTEC values was much weaker than in NmF2 for the Northern hemisphere mid-latitudes and was entirely absent at the Southern hemisphere. Cross-hemisphere analysis of the equivalent slab thickness shows its clear seasonal dependence for all levels of solar activity: the day-time maximum τ_max is observed during local summer, whereas the day-time minimum τ_min is observed during local winter. The night-time values of τ were higher compared to the day-time values during the winter and equinox seasons. Comparative model-data study shows rather good IRI performance of the day-time NmF2 for mid-latitudes of both hemispheres and rather noticeable overestimations for the mid-night NmF2 values during high solar activity. Analysis of IRI vTEC demonstrates the model limitations, related with the absence of the plasmaspheric part, and actual demand in a reliable and standard ionosphere–plasmasphere model for analysis of GPS vTEC.     

Solar activity variations of ionosonde measurements and modeling results

The time series of hourly electron density profiles N(h) obtained at several mid-latitude stations in Europe have been used to obtain N(h) profiles on a monthly basis and to extract both the expected bottomside parameters and a proxy of the ionospheric variability as functions of time and height. With these data we present advances on a “Local Model” technique for the parameters B0 and B1, its applicability to other ionospheric stations, to other bottomside ionospheric parameters, and to modeling the time/height variability of the profile. The Local Model (LM) is an empirical model based on the experimental results of the solar activity dependence of the daily and seasonal behavior of the above parameters. The LM improves the IRI-2001 prediction of the B0 and B1 by factor of two at mid-latitudes. Moreover, the LM can be used to simulate other ionospheric parameters and to build mean N(h) profiles and the deviations from them. The modeling of both the average N(h) profiles and their deviations is an useful tool for ionospheric model users who want to know both the expected patterns and their deviations.     

Behavior of F2-layer parameters and solar activity indices in the 24th cycle

The analysis of the behavior of the critical frequency foF2 during the 24th solar activity cycle (Danilov and Konstantinova, 2020a, c) is prolonged for two more months and the nighttime hours. In addition to the Rz and Ly-α indices used in the aforementioned papers for correction of the F10.7 index during the 24th cycle, the commonly used Mg II index is added. The results confirm the previous conclusions on the existence of the “vague” period with chaotic behavior of foF2 and the recovery of the negative trend in foF2 after 2008–2010. A comparison of the F10.7 index with three other SA indices (Ly-α, Rz, and Mg II) for the 22nd, 23rd, and 24th SA cycles is performed. It is shown that the relationship between F10.7 and other indices is close in the 22nd and 23rd cycles but differs from that in the 24th cycle. The corrected values of F10.7 in the 24th cycle are proposed for analysis of ionospheric trends during that cycle.     

Studies of the geocenter motion using 16-years DORIS data

An accuracy of geocenter motion estimation is strongly dependent on the geodetic network size and stations distribution over the Earth’s surface. From this point of view DORIS system has an advantage, as its ground network of beacons consists of more than 50 sites, equally distributed over the Earth’s surface. Aiming to study variations of the geocenter movements, the results of DORIS data analysis for the time span 1993.0–2009.0 (inawd06.snx series), performed at the Analysis Centre of the Institute of astronomy of the Russian Academy of Sciences, have been used. DORIS data processing was made with GIPSY/OASIS II software, developed by Jet Propulsion Laboratory and modified for DORIS data processing by Institute Géographique National. Standard deviations of stations coordinates are estimated at the level 0.5–4.0 cm (internal consistency), depending on the number of satellites used in the solution. RMS of estimated components of the DORIS satellites orbits, compared with the solutions of other IDS analysis centres, do not exceed 1–2 cm. Weekly solutions for coordinates have been transformed from free network solutions (inawd06.snx series) to a well defined terrestrial reference frame ITRF2005 with the use of seven parameters of Helmert transformation, which were examined with a view to study variations of the geocenter movements (ina05wd01.geoc time series). In order to estimate linear trend, amplitudes, periods and phases of geocenter variation a method of linear regression was applied. The evaluated amplitudes of annual variations are of the order of 5–7 mm for X and Y components and 27–29 mm for Z component. Semi-annual amplitudes are also noticeable in all components (1–34 mm for X, Y and Z components). Secular trends in the DORIS geocenter coordinates are: −1.2, −0.1 and −0.3 mm/year for X, Y and Z directions respectively.     

Influence of dark matter on light propagation in solar system

We investigated the influence of dark matter on light propagation in the solar system. We assumed the spherical symmetry of spacetime and derived the approximate solution of the Einstein equation, which consists of the gravitational attractions caused by the central celestial body, i.e. the Sun, and the dark matter surrounding it. We expressed the dark matter density in the solar system in the following simple power-law form, ?(t,r)=ρ(t)(?/r)^k$?(t\text{,}r)=\rho (t)(?/r{)}^k$, where t is the coordinate time; r, the radius from the central body; ?, the normalizing factor; k, the exponent characterizing r  -dependence of dark matter density; and ρ(t)$\rho (t)$, the arbitrary function of time t. On the basis of the derived approximate solution, we focused on light propagation and obtained the additional corrections of the gravitational time delay and the relative frequency shift caused by the dark matter. As an application of our results, we considered the secular increase in the astronomical unit reported by Krasinsky and Brumberg (2004) and found that it was difficult to provide an explanation for the observed dAU/dt = 15 ± 4 m/century.