Behavior of F2-layer parameters and solar activity indices in the 24th cycle

The analysis of the behavior of the critical frequency foF2 during the 24th solar activity cycle (Danilov and Konstantinova, 2020a, c) is prolonged for two more months and the nighttime hours. In addition to the Rz and Ly-α indices used in the aforementioned papers for correction of the F10.7 index during the 24th cycle, the commonly used Mg II index is added. The results confirm the previous conclusions on the existence of the “vague” period with chaotic behavior of foF2 and the recovery of the negative trend in foF2 after 2008–2010. A comparison of the F10.7 index with three other SA indices (Ly-α, Rz, and Mg II) for the 22nd, 23rd, and 24th SA cycles is performed. It is shown that the relationship between F10.7 and other indices is close in the 22nd and 23rd cycles but differs from that in the 24th cycle. The corrected values of F10.7 in the 24th cycle are proposed for analysis of ionospheric trends during that cycle.     

Variation of monthly mean foF2 and hmF2 over a mid latitude station during the period 1997–2006

Ionosonde data of a mid latitude station Novosibirsk (Geog. Lat. 54.6°N, Geog. Long. 83.2°E) has been analyzed for the years 1997–2006 that covers the major part of solar cycle 23. Our results show the presence of winter anomaly in the daytime F2 layer critical frequency during different phases of solar activity. Results also reveal a semiannual variation of foF₂ with two maxima and a minimum that always appears in summer. While the first maximum is in the spring equinox, the second one is found to shift from autumn to winter with the increase of solar activity. The maximum height of F2 layer during the daytime shows variation with the solar activity. It is higher during the higher activity periods and lower during the periods of low activity. Results of ionosonde observations have been compared with those obtained from IRI-2007 model and it is found that model reproduces gross features of foF₂ variation. However, the modeled hmF₂ variations during equinoxes are significantly different from the ones derived using the ionosonde data. The model also underestimates the hmF₂ values.     

Solar cycle effect on temporal and spatial variation of topside ion density measured by SROSS C2 and ROCSAT 1 over the Indian longitude sector

We investigated the diurnal, seasonal and latitudinal variations of ion density Ni over the Indian low and equatorial topside ionosphere within 17.5°S to 17.5°N magnetic latitudes by combining the data from SROSS C2 and ROCSAT 1 for the 9 year period from 1995 to 2003 during solar cycle 23. The diurnal maximum density is found in the local noon or in the afternoon hours and the minimum occurs in the pre sunrise hours. The density is higher during the equinoxes as compared to that in the June and December solstice. The local time spread of the daytime maximum ion density increases with increase in solar activity. A north south asymmetry with higher ion density over northern hemisphere in the June solstice and over southern hemisphere in December solstice has been observed in moderate and high solar activity years. The crest to crest distance increases with increase in solar flux. Ion density bears a nonlinear relationship with F_10.7 cm solar flux and EUV flux in general. The density increases linearly with solar flux up to ∼150 sfu (1 sfu = 10⁻²²Wm⁻²Hz⁻¹) and EUV flux up to ∼50 units (10⁹ photons cm⁻² s⁻¹). But beyond this the density saturates. Inverse saturation and linear relationship have been observed in some season or latitude also. Inter-comparison of the three solar activity indices F_10.7 cm flux, EUV flux and F_10.7P (= (F_10.7 + F_10.7A)/2, where F_10.7A is the 81 day running average value of F_10.7) shows that the ion density correlates better with F_10.7P and F_10.7 cm fluxes. The annual average daytime total ion density from 1995 to 2003 follows a hysteresis loop as the solar cycle reverses. The ion density at 500 km over the Indian longitude sector as obtained by the international reference ionosphere is in general lower than the measured densities during moderate and high solar activity years. In low solar activity years the model densities are equal or higher than measured densities. The IRI EIA peaks are symmetric (±10°) in equinox while densities are higher at 10°N in June solstice and at 10°S in the December solstice. The model density follows F_10.7 linearly up to about F_10.7 > ∼150 sfu and then saturates.     

Empirical models of the thermosphere and requirements for improvements

The different types of variation in the thermosphere are briefly examined and the solar-activity effect is singled out for special attention. To this day, empirical models have made use of the decimetric solar flux F_10.7 as an index of the variable XUV radiation from the sun. To account for the change in the relative intensity of the different types of emissions in the course of the solar cycle, F_10.7 is made to perform double duty: The daily values are used to represent the day-to-day and “27-day” variations, while its averages over several solar rotations are used to represent the variations with the 11-year cycle. The availability of direct solar XUV data should eventually eliminate the need for such a make-shift procedure. Accuracy and continuity requirements of XUV intensity measurements are discussed and a strategy is outlined for sorting out the relevant features from the observational material and putting them to practical use in thermospheric modeling. It is suggested that future models of the diurnal and the geomagnetic variation use as a guide theoretical models which have achieved considerable success in qualitatively representing the observed phenomena.     

Variation of ionospheric total electron content in Taiwan region of the equatorial anomaly from 1994 to 2003

The ionospheric total electron content (TEC) in the northern hemispheric equatorial ionospheric anomaly (EIA) region is studied by analyzing dual-frequency signals of the Global Position System (GPS) acquired from a chain of nine observational sites clustered around Taiwan (21.9–26.2°N, 118.4–112.6°E). In this study, we present results from a statistical study of seasonal and geomagnetic effects on the EIA during solar cycle 23: 1994–2003. It is found that TEC at equatorial anomaly crests yield their maximum values during the vernal and autumnal months and their minimum values during the summer (except 1998). Using monthly averaged I_c (magnitude of TEC at the northern anomaly crest), semi-annual variations is seen clearly with two maxima occurring in both spring and autumn. In addition, I_c is found to be greater in winter than in summer. Statistically monthly values of I_c were poorly correlated with the monthly Dst index (r = −0.22) but were well correlated with the solar emission F_10.7 index (r = 0.87) for the entire database for the period during 1994–2003. In contrast, monthly values of I_c were correlated better with Dst (r ? 0.72) than with F_10.7 (r ? 0.56) in every year during the low solar activity period (1994–1997). It suggests that the effect of solar activity on I_c is a longer term (years), whereas the effect of geomagnetic activity on I_c is a shorter term (months).     

F3 layer feature under low and medium solar activity observed at a Chinese low latitude station Fuke

Ionogram observations from the ionosonde at Fuke (9.5°N geomagnetic latitude), a Chinese low latitude station, in 2010–2012 are analyzed to present the features of F3 layer under low and moderate solar activity conditions. Structure of the ionogram, displaying the F3 layer, was more distinct and clear during MSA than LSA periods especially during spring to summer. Start time of occurrence of the F3 layer is about at 0830–0900 LT and is approximately the same for LSA and MSA conditions. The average duration time of the F3 layer occurrence was 181 min per day under F_10.7 = 75 condition, 263 min in F_10.7 = 99 and 358 min in F_10.7 = 125, respectively. The differences of h′F2 and h′F3 exhibited obvious semiannual variation observed at Fuke from March 2010 to June 2012 and increased with increasing solar activity. The difference of foF2 and foF3 in the months February, March, September, October and November is less evident in the middle solar activity period 2011–2012 than the low solar activity 2010 and in the other period it shows a slight increase (0.5 MHz) or keeps constant. The results show that the solar activity dependence of the F3 layer occurrence at low latitude away from the magnetic equator is different from that at near the magnetic equator.     

Predicting indices of the ionosphere response to solar activity for the ascending phase of the 25th solar cycle

The international reference ionosphere, IRI, and its extension to plasmasphere, IRI-Plas, models require reliable prediction of solar and ionospheric proxy indices of solar activity for nowcasting and forecasting of the ionosphere parameters. It is shown that IRI prediction errors could increase for the F2 layer critical frequency foF2 and the peak height hmF2 due to erroneous predictions of the ionospheric global IG index and the international sunspot number SSN1 index on which IRI and IRI-Plas models are built. Regression relation is introduced to produce daily SSN1 proxy index from new time series SSN2 index provided from June 2015, after recalibration of sunspots data. To avoid extra errors of the ionosphere model a new solar activity prediction (SAP) model for the ascending part of the solar cycle SC25 is proposed which expresses analytically the SSN1 proxy index and the 10.7-cm radio flux F10.7 index in terms of the phase of the solar cycle, Φ. SAP model is based on monthly indices observed during the descending part of SC24 complemented with forecast of time and amplitude for SC25 peak. The strength of SC25 is predicted to be less than that of SC24 as shown with their amplitudes for eight types of indices driving IRI-Plas model.     

Linkage of the ionospheric peak electron density and height deduced from the topside sounding data

Topside sounding electron density profiles are analyzed to explore interrelations of the F2 layer critical frequency and the peak height for a representative set of conditions provided by ISIS1, ISIS2, IK19 and Cosmos-1809 satellites for the period of 1969–1987. The foF2 and hmF2 are delivered with exponential extrapolation of electron density profile to zero of its 1st derivative. It is shown that the linear regression exists between foF2 and hmF2 under different conditions. The linkage between the two parameters amended to the empirical model of the peak height [Gulyaeva, T.L., Bradley, P.A., Stanislawska, I., Juchnikowski, G. Towards a new reference model of hmF2 for IRI. Adv. Space Res. 42, 666–672, doi:10.1016/j.asr.2008.02.021, 2008] results in an empirical model of the both foF2 and hmF2 expressed by superposition of functions in terms of local-time, season, geodetic longitude, modified dip latitude and solar activity. For the solar activity we use a proxy Fsp index averaged from the mean solar radio flux F10.7s for the past 81 days (3 solar rotations) and F10.7 value for 1 day prior the day of observation. Impact of geomagnetic activity is not discernible with the topside sounding data due to mixed positive and negative storm-time effects. Appreciable differences have been revealed between IRI-CCIR predictions and outcome of the new model which might be attributed to the different techniques of the peak electron density and height derivation, different epochs and different global distribution of the source data as well as the different mathematical functions involved in the maps and the model presentation.     

第23太阳活动周热层大气密度对太阳辐射指数F10.7响应的模拟研究

利用NCAR-TIEGCM计算了第23太阳活动周期间（1996—2008年）400km高度上的大气密度，并统计分析大气密度对太阳辐射指数FF_10.7的响应.结果表明，在第23太阳活动周内，大气密度的变化趋势与太阳辐射指数FF_10.7的变化趋势基本一致，但是大气密度在不同年份、不同月份对太阳辐射指数FF_10.7的响应存在差异.第23太阳活动周内太阳辐射极大值和极小值之比大于4，而大气密度的极大值与极小值之比则大于10.太阳辐射低年的年内大气密度变化不到2倍，而太阳辐射高年的年内大气密度变化可达2倍甚至3倍.大气密度与FF_10.7指数在北半球高纬的相关系数比南半球高纬的相关系数大.在低纬地区，太阳辐射高年大气密度与FF_10.7指数的相关系数比低年的大.不同纬度上，大气密度与太阳辐射指数FF_10.7的27天变化值之间的相关系数都大于其与81天变化值之间的相关系数.      

The thermospheric composition different responses to geomagnetic storm in the winter and summer hemisphere measured by “SZ” Atmospheric Composition Detectors

Three “SZ” Atmospheric Composition Detectors (ACDs) on board spacecraft “SZ-2”, “SZ-3” and “SZ-4” were launched on 10th January 2001, 26th March 2002 and 31st December 2002 separately. A large quantity of thermospheric composition data at the orbital altitude ranging from 330 to 362 km were collected from the in-situ measurement of ACDs. The spacecrafts’ lifetime was just in the second peak period of the 23rd solar cycle which includes two peaks and the solar activity value F_10.7 was from 89 to 228. During this period, several intense geomagnetic disturbances happened.     

Cross testing of ionosphere models IRI-2001 and IRI-2007, data from satellite altimeters (Topex/Poseidon and Jason-1) and global ionosphere maps

In this study, we use a great body of statistical data covering the entire 23rd solar cycle to cross test data of satellite altimeters, Global Ionosphere Maps and the International Reference Ionosphere models, IRI-2001 and IRI-2007. It is revealed that experimental TEC values of the satellite altimeters regularly exceed the model ones by ∼3 TECU (1 TECU = 10¹⁶ m⁻²). The best possible value of difference between TECs obtained from altimeter and GIM-map data significantly differs for different laboratories: the maximum for CODG data falls on 2.5 TECU, ESAG – 3 TECU, JPLG – 0 TECU, UPCG – 2 TECU. The dependence of experimental and model data root-mean-square deviation on the F10.7 index is shown to be nearly linear. IRI-2001 and IRI-2007 relative errors are characterized by considerable 11-year and annual variations. Given the geomagnetic planetary index K_p under 7, IRI-2001 and IRI-2007 reproduce TEC in the ionosphere with an accuracy of ∼30% relative to measurement data from satellite altimeters. The amplitude of absolute error variations resulting from the difference in ionization enhancement between the model and the real ionosphere during the morning solar terminator transit is ∼5 TECU.     

Variations of total electron content over high latitude region during the ascending phase of 24th solar cycle

The solar cycle variation and seasonal changes significantly affects the ionization process of earth’s ionosphere and required to be monitored in real time basis for regional level refinement of existing models. In view of this, the present study has been carried out by using the ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) data observed with the help of Global Ionospheric Scintillation and TEC monitoring (GISTM) system installed at Indian Antarctic Research Station, “Maitri” [70°46′00″S 11°43′56″E] during the ascending phase of 24th solar cycle. The daily values of solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) flux (0.1–50?nm wavelength), 10.7?cm radio flux F_10.7 and Sunspot number (SSN) has been taken as a proxy to represent the solar cycle variation to correlate with TEC. The linear regression results revels better correlation of TEC with EUV flux rather than F_10.7 and SSN. Also, the EUV and TEC show better agreement during summer as compared to winter and equinox period. Correlation between TEC and EUV appears significantly noticeable during ten internationally defined quiet days of each month (stable background geophysical condition) as compared to the overall days (2010–2014). Further, saturation effect has been observed on TEC values during the solar maxima year 2014. The saturation effects are more prominent during the night hours of winter and equinox season due to transportation losses manifested by the equator-ward direction of meridional wind.     

Solar cycle effects upon the relationship of Ne and Te in the F-region

Employing Atmsophere Explorer-C measurements made in 1974, just prior to solar minimum, Brace and Theis /1/ demonstrated that a remarkably consistent inverse relationship existed between the electron density N_e and temperature T_e in the F-region. In this paper we use later data from AE-C, taken when solar activity was rising (1975–1978), and Dynamics Explorer-2 data taken at solar maximum (1981), to examine how the temperature and density relationship changes with solar activity. We find that the solar maximum T_e is a factor of two larger than the solar minimum T_e for the same values of N_e. T_e does not necessarily increase with solar activity, however, because N_e increases enough to approximately cancel the effect of higher solar extreme ultraviolet heating. We find that the effect of solar activity can be accounted for by a simple function of the F_10.7 cm index that multiplies the solar minimum equation of Brace and Theis /1/.     

Solar activity dependence of total electron content derived from GPS observations over Mbarara

Vertical total electron content (VTEC) observed at Mbarara (geographic co-ordinates: 0.60°S, 30.74°E; geomagnetic coordinates: 10.22°S, 102.36°E), Uganda, for the period 2001–2009 have been used to study the diurnal, seasonal and solar activity variations. The daily values of the 10.7 cm radio flux (F_10.7) and sunspot number (R) were used to represent Solar Extreme Ultraviolet Variability (EUV). VTEC is generally higher during high solar activity period for all the seasons and increases from 0600 h LT and reaches its maximum value within 1400 h–1500 h LT. All analysed linear and quadratic fits demonstrate positive VTEC-F_10.7 and positive VTEC-R correlation, with all fits at 0000 h and 1400 h LT being significant with a confidence level of 95% when both linear and quadratic models are used. All the fits at 0600 h LT are insignificant with a confidence level of 95%. Generally, over Mbarara, quadratic fit shows that VTEC saturates during all seasons for F_10.7 more than 200 units and R more than 150 units. The result of this study can be used to improve the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) prediction of TEC around the equatorial region of the African sector.     

Evaluation of the STORM model storm-time corrections for middle latitude

This paper presents results from the Storm-Time Ionospheric Correction Model (STORM) validation for selected Northern and Southern Hemisphere middle latitude locations. The created database incorporated 65 strong-to-severe geomagnetic storms, which occurred within the period 1995–2007. This validation included data from some ionospheric stations (e.g., Pruhonice, El Arenosillo) that were not considered in the development or previous validations of the model. Hourly values of the F2 layer critical frequency, foF2, measured for 5–7 days during the main and recovery phases of each selected storm were compared with the predicted IRI 2007 foF2 with the STORM model option activated. To perform a detailed comparison between observed values, medians and predicted foF2 values the correlation coefficient, the root-mean-square error (RMSE), and the percentage improvement were calculated. Results of the comparative analysis show that the STORM model captures more effectively the negative phases of the summer ionospheric storms, while electron density enhancement during winter storms and the changeover of the different storm phases is reproduced with less accuracy. The STORM model corrections are less efficient for lower-middle latitudes and severe geomagnetic storms.     

Periodic Variations of Drag Coefficient for the ANDE Spherical Satellites During its Lifetime

A drag coefficient (C_D) inversion method is introduced to study the variations of the drag coefficient for orbital satellites with spherical geometry. Drag coefficients of the four micro satellites in the Atmospheric Neutral Density Experiment (ANDE) are compiled out with this new method. The Lomb-Scargle Periodgram (LSP) analysis of the four ANDE satellites' C_D series has shown that there are obvious 5, 7, 9, and 27 days' period in those data. Interesting results are found through comparing the LSP analysis with series of the daily solar radio flux at 10.7 cm (F_10.7 index), the Ap index, and the daily averaged solar wind speed at 1AU. All series in the same time interval have an obvious period of about 27 days, which has already been explained as the association with the 27 days' solar rotation. The oscillating periods less than 27 days are found in series of C_D, Ap and solar wind speed at 1AU, e.g., the 5, 7, 9 days period. However, these short periods disappeared in the time series of F_10.7 index. The same periodicities of 5, 7, 9 days in Ap and solar wind are presented at the same time interval during the declining phase of solar cycle 23. While in the ascending phase of solar cycle 24, these short oscillations are not so obvious as that in the declining phase of solar cycle 23. These results provide definite evidence that the C_D variations with period of 5, 7 and 9 days are produced by a combination of space weather effects caused by the solar wind and geomagnetic activity.      

基于CHAMP卫星观测数据对热层大气密度的经验正交分析

对2003年(太阳活动较高年)至2007年(太阳活动低年) CHAMP卫星的热层大气密度观测数据进行了经验正交函数(EOF)分析, 得到了400 km高度上白天平均大气密度ρ的太阳活动周变化与年度变化等不同变化分量. 研究结果表明, ρ受太阳活动影响较大, 其太阳周变化分量与F10.7指数变化之间的相关系数可高达94.5 %; ρ的太阳周变化分量随纬度增加而减小, 且在中高纬地区, 南半球的值明显大于北半球的值, 在低纬地区则出现基本对称的双峰分布, 即赤道质量密度异常(EMA)结构. 在ρ的年变化中, 呈现出明显的季节变化, 即夏季低冬季高; 同时ρ的年变化幅度随太阳活动增加而增强, 随纬度增加而增强. 将本文结果与经验模式NRLMSISE00在观测条件下的输出数据进行对比, 发现两者的太阳周变化与年变化分量基本一致, 但本文观测数据的太阳周成分随纬度变化略小, 年变化幅度略大, 且NRLMSISE00模式不能再现EMA结构. 研究结果对揭示热层气候学变化特征具有重要意义.      

Study the behavior of the ionospheric frequencies at Karachi during three consecutive solar minima of cycle 21, 22 & 23 and their comparison with IRI-2016

The behavior of critical frequencies of ionospheric E and F2 layers (foE & foF2) along with minimum ionospheric frequency (fmin) is studied for solar minima of cycle 21 (1986), 22 (1996) and 23 (2008) over Karachi (24.95$°$N, 67.13$°$E), Pakistan. The station is located at the crest of equatorial ionization anomaly region. Beside seasonal differences, pronounced change in the values of frequencies is noted from one solar minimum to another solar minimum. A strong and direct correlation of foF2 with Smoothed Sunspot Number (SSN) and F10.7?cm solar flux is observed. In the minimum of cycle 23, reduction in foF2 is noted due to reduction of solar EUV as compared to other minima. Also disappearance of semi-annual variations in foF2 is noted in cycle 23 minimum. Unexpectedly higher values of foE and fmin are observed in minimum of cycle 23 as compared to other minima. It is difficult to explain this unusual behavior of fmin and foE along with disappearance of semi-annual variation in foF2. It is possible that during very low solar activity, thermospheric conditions are changed which in turn altered the ionosphere. Further investigation of atmosphere-ionosphere coupling is required to understand this complex behavior. On comparison of observed values with IRI-2016, higher deviations are observed in foE before noon hours while in case of foF2, large deviations are noted during daytime. The absence of foF2 semi-annual variation in cycle 23 is not reproduced by IRI-2016. It is suggested that IRI-2016 need some modification for extremely low solar activity condition.     

Comparison between observed ionospheric foF2 and IRI-2001 predictions over periods of severe geomagnetic activities at Grahamstown,South Africa

The observed ionospheric F2 critical frequency (foF2) values over a South Africa mid-latitude station, Grahamstown, (geographic coordinates: 33.3°S, 26.5°E), were analysed and compared with International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model, using the CCIR (Comite´ Consultatif International des Radio communications) and URSI (Union Radio-Scientifique Internationale) coefficients, during four geomagnetically disturbed days in the year 2000. These days are April 5, May 23, August 10 and September 15. The data were analysed for five days around the storm day. Comparisons between the IRI-2001 predicted foF2 values, using both CCIR and URSI coefficients and the observed values are shown with their root-mean-square error (RMSE) and the relative deviation module mean (rdmm) for the various storm periods. The CCIR option performed more accurately than the URSI option.     

An empirical model of electron density in low latitude at 600 km obtained by Hinotori satellite

An empirical model of electron density (Ne) was constructed by using the data obtained with an impedance probe on board Japanese Hinotori satellite. The satellite was in circular orbit of the height of 600 km with the inclination of 31 degrees from February 1981 to June 1982. The constructed model gives Ne at any local time with the time resolution of 90 min and between −25 and 25 degrees in magnetic latitude with its resolution of 5 degrees in the range of F_10.7 from 150 to 250 under the condition of K_p < 4. Spline interpolations are applied to the functions of day of year, geomagnetic latitude and solar local time, and linear interpolation is applied to the function of F_10.7. Longitude dependence of Ne is not taken into account. Our density model can reproduce solar local time variation of electron density at 600 km altitude better than current International Reference Ionosphere (IRI2001) model which overestimates Ne in night time and underestimates Ne in day time. Our density model together with electron temperature model which has been constructed before will enable more understanding of upper ionospheric phenomenon in the equatorial region.