Atmospheric reentry hemisphere prediction for prograde orbits using logical disjunction

A unique logic-based algorithm for atmospheric reentry hemisphere prediction is presented for spacecraft in low-eccentricity, prograde low Earth orbits at altitudes of 300 km and lower. Using two-line element (TLE) data for initial orbit conditions, coupled with coarse estimates for spacecraft aerodynamic characteristics, the algorithm relies on logical disjunction operations based on a dual analysis of histogram and two-weighted Gaussian probability density function (PDF) fits of predicted reentry latitude data. The algorithm requires the execution of a series of parametric simulations to determine the reentry hemisphere for variations in spacecraft aerodynamic coefficients and drag reference area. When implemented, the algorithm yields accurate hemisphere predictions on average 15 days from reentry as demonstrated by historical reentry cases from 1979 to 2018. All reentry cases were selected to demonstrate the algorithm’s ability to deliver accurate reentry hemisphere predictions for spacecraft with varying physical size and mass, and reentering during different periods of solar cycle activity.     

Uncertainty-aware Cube algorithm for medium-term collision risk assessment

The number of Earth orbiting objects is constantly growing, and some orbital regions are becoming risky environments for space assets of interest, which are increasingly threatened by accidental collisions with other objects, especially in Low-Earth Orbit (LEO). Collision risk assessment is performed by various methods, both covariance and non-covariance based. The Cube algorithm is a non-covariance-based method used to estimate the collision rates between space objects, whose concept consists in dividing the space in cubes of fixed dimension and, at each time instant, checking if two or more objects share the same cube. Up to now its application has been limited to the long-term scenarios of orbital debris evolutionary models, where considering the uncertainties is not necessary and impractical. Within operative contexts, instead, medium-term collision risk analysis may be an important task, in which the propagation-related uncertainties play a prominent role, but the timescale poses challenges for the application of standard covariance-based conjunction analysis techniques. In this framework, this paper presents an approach for the evaluation of the medium-term collision frequency for objects in LEO, called Uncertainty-aware Cube method. It is a modified version of the Cube, able to take the possible errors in the space objects’ position into account for the detection of the conjunctions. As an object’s orbit is propagated, the along-track position error grows more and more, and each object could potentially be in a different position with respect to the one determined by numerical propagation and, thus, in a different cube. Considering the uncertainties, at each time instant the algorithm associates more than one cube to each object and checks if they share at least one cube. If so, a conjunction is detected and a degree of confidence is evaluated. The performance of the method is assessed in different LEO scenarios and compared to the original Cube method.     

基于ESO的可重复使用飞行器积分滑模控制器设计

考虑参数不确定和外界干扰对姿态控制的影响,开展基于扩张状态观测器(ESO,extended states observer)的可重复使用飞行器姿态控制研究.首先,对飞行器运动模型进行描述,在合理假设条件下,得到面向控制器设计的纵向和横侧向姿态模型;其次,分别针对纵向和横侧向姿态模型设计积分滑模控制器(ISMC,integral sliding mode control);然后,引入ESO对耦合作用、参数不确定及外界干扰进行估计,并在控制器中进行补偿;最后,六自由度仿真结果表明,本研究给出的控制策略能够实现对给定制导指令的稳定跟踪,确保安全再入飞行.     

Procedure and methodologies for managing the risk of space object reentry

This paper proposes a procedure for managing the risk of reentering space objects and risk assessment methodologies used for the process. The proposed procedure comprises three phases encompassing the whole reentry stages of space objects. Mathematical models for assessing the impact risk of the reentering space objects by utilizing the information available during different risk management phases and the recommended risk analysis results for public communication are presented. The concept of the conditional casualty expectation is proposed as the metric representing the reentry risk and the method to compute its profile is introduced. A case study on the risk management procedure with the dataset on an actual reentry event is conducted to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed procedure.     

Spacecraft Design-for-Demise implementation strategy & decision-making methodology for low earth orbit missions

Space missions designed to completely ablate upon an uncontrolled Earth atmosphere reentry are likely to be simpler and cheaper than those designed to execute controlled reentry. This is because mission risk (unavailability) stemming from controlled reentry subsystem failure(s) is essentially eliminated. NASA has not customarily implemented Design-for-Demise meticulously. NASA has rather approached Design-for-Demise in an ad hoc manner that fails to entrench Design-for-Demise as a mission design driver. Thus, enormous demisability challenges at later formulation stages of missions aspired to be demisable are evident due to these perpetuated oversights in entrenching Design-for-Demise practices. The investigators hence propose a strategy for a consistent integration of Design-for-Demise practices in all phases of a space mission lifecycle. Secondly, an all-inclusive risk-informed, decision-making methodology referred to as Analytic Deliberative Process is proposed. This criterion facilitates in making a choice between an uncontrolled reentry demisable or controlled reentry. The authors finally conceive and synthesize Objectives Hierarchy, Attributes, and Quantitative Performance Measures of the Analytical Deliberative Process for a Design-for-Demise risk-informed decision-making process.     

可重复使用飞行器再入姿态的区间二型自适应模糊滑模控制设计

针对具有强非线性、多变量耦合特性的可重复使用飞行器（RLV），同时考虑模型参数不确定性和外界干扰对飞行器再入姿态跟踪的影响，提出了一种基于区间二型自适应模糊滑模的姿态控制方法。首先，建立飞行器再入动态模型，并基于反步思想将控制模型转化为姿态角和角速率相关子系统。其次，将模型参数不确定性和外界干扰视作子系统非线性项的一部分。再次，采用区间二型模糊系统逼近子系统非线性项，并结合自适应技术和滑模控制方法分别设计虚拟控制量和实际控制量。此外，引入一阶低通滤波器用以处理子系统虚拟控制律。通过Lyapunov方法的分析证明了闭环控制系统的稳定性，且飞行器姿态跟踪误差可收敛于原点附近的小邻域。最后，利用飞行器的数值仿真验证了所设计控制方法能有效跟踪飞行器参考指令，且对外界干扰有较强的鲁棒性。      

可重复使用运载器递归积分滑模姿态控制方法

针对存在模型不确定和外部干扰的可重复使用运载器再入段姿态控制问题,提出了一种基于自适应滑模干扰观测器的递归积分滑模控制方法。首先,基于可重复使用运载器再入段姿态运动模型,建立了面向控制的模型;其次,设计了自适应滑模干扰观测器,以精准估计和补偿由模型不确定和外部干扰构成的复合干扰;然后,基于递归思想设计了一种新型递归积分滑模控制器,利用Lyapunov稳定性理论证明了闭环系统的有限时间稳定性;最后,数值仿真结果验证了该方法具有较强的鲁棒性和较快的收敛速度。     

基于雷诺数的大气阻力模型在飞行器再入预报中的应用

随着对空间技术服务需求的增加和空间碎片主动移除技术的实现,未来空间碎片将以数量多、质量大、难分解等特点频繁再入大气层,给地面人员和财产安全造成更多威胁.因此,亟需对火箭体等大型航天器的大气再入进行预警,然而因缺乏合适的大气阻力系数模型难以实现高精度的大气再入预报.为此,在简化航天器模型的基础上引入基于雷诺数的大气动力模...     

非一致终端约束下火星大气进入段制导律设计

针对小升阻比的火星探测器在火星大气进入过程中所面临的难点问题,对火星大气进入过程制导方法进行了研究。首先在确知探测器弹道系数和升阻比的前提下,考虑过程量及开伞条件约束,优化设计再入飞行的初始再入角。然后考虑非一致终端约束和飞行器的有限机动能力,设计参考轨迹剖面,并确保其能提供足够的裕度来应付各种参数不确定性。最后设计标准轨道法制导律,完成轨迹有效跟踪,并通过六自由度仿真验证了算法的合理性,为火星着陆项目中大气进入段制导方案设计提供参考。     

基于星下点机动的再入飞行器离轨规划

针对约束再入点地理位置的再入飞行器离轨问题,提出了一种基于星下点机动的离轨规划方法。再入飞行器的离轨轨道设计受到飞行器当前轨道状态和再入点参数的约束。首先,基于轨道飞行原理,建立了一般椭圆轨道冲量模型下离轨制动参数和再入点参数的关系,分析了最优离轨的推力施加原则;其次,在考虑地球自转的前提下,提出了直接离轨必要条件,针对约束再入点经纬度的问题,完善了利用非线性规划优化方法确定有限推力模型下离轨点位置的策略,同时给出了符合燃料最优目标的离轨制动参数;最后,探讨了一般情况下初始轨道不满足直接离轨必要条件时,为满足星下点约束而进行的轨道机动施加策略。      

再入飞行器末端能量管理段纵向剖面优化方法

摘要： 对于轨道再入飞行器,根据各阶段飞行特性和任务的不同被分为初期再入、末端能量管理以及进场着陆几个阶段.本文提出一种末端能量管理段航程及纵向剖面优选方法,通过对不同的初始航程和纵向剖面进行递推,以阻力板控制裕度最大为优化目标,选出最适应飞行器升阻特性的航程以及相应的高度动压剖面.考虑初始状态误差及气动特性偏差条件下的六自由度仿真验证所设计的纵向剖面的鲁棒性.     

再入飞行器自动驾驶仪的自适应退步控制设计

自动驾驶仪设计的传统方法是基于分段线性化的增益规划法。近年来，以反馈线性化为基础的各种非线性控制技术得到了广泛的研究，文章基于一种不同于反馈线性化的退步控制思想，提出了一种新的非线性反馈自动驾驶仪设计方法，该方法考虑了系统输入的不确定性，采用了非线性在线优化方法保证舵偏与力矩之间更精确的映射，同时，通过引入自适应项以修正各种力矩偏差，利用这种方法，为再入飞行器设计了自动驾驶仪。仿真结果表明，提出的自适应退步控制方法是有效的，且设计过程简单，易于实现。     

Uncertainties in estimates of the risks of late effects from space radiation.

Methods used to project risks in low-Earth orbit are of questionable merit for exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data and knowledge of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) heavy ions, which causes estimates of the risk of late effects to be highly uncertain. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Using the linear-additivity model for radiation risks, we use Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective uncertainty distributions in each factor to obtain an estimate of the overall uncertainty in risk projections. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including a deep space outpost and Mars missions of duration of 360, 660, and 1000 days. The major results are the quantification of the uncertainties in current risk estimates, the identification of factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties, and the development of a method to quantify candidate approaches to reduce uncertainties or mitigate risks. The large uncertainties in GCR risk projections lead to probability distributions of risk that mask any potential risk reduction using the "optimization" of shielding materials or configurations. In contrast, the design of shielding optimization approaches for solar particle events and trapped protons can be made at this time and promising technologies can be shown to have merit using our approach. The methods used also make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative metrics, e.g., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well-defined confidence limits.     

North–South asymmetry in cosmic ray fluxes as measured in the stratosphere and in selected solar wind parameters in the near-Earth space

North–South asymmetry in the cosmic ray fluxes as resulted from the long-term balloon measurements in the northern and southern polar stratosphere does not agree with that found from the neutron monitor data. In order to reveal possible sources of the observed asymmetry, selected interplanetary parameters were examined. North–South asymmetry relative to the heliospheric neutral sheet was considered for solar wind velocity, plasma density and some other solar plasma parameters. It is shown that North–South asymmetry of the solar wind velocity and plasma density depends on the Earth’s heliolatitude and the phase of the 11-year solar activity cycle. This may be relevant to the results of cosmic ray measurements in the stratosphere.     

Tube-based robust output feedback model predictive control for autonomous rendezvous and docking with a tumbling target

In this paper, a tube-based robust output feedback model predictive control method (TRMPC) is proposed for controlling chaser spacecraft docking with a tumbling target in near-circular orbit. The controller contains a simple, stable, Luenberger state estimator and a tube-based robust model predictive controller. Several practical challenges are also considered under dock-enabling conditions, such as the control saturation, velocity constraint, approach corridor constraint, and collision avoidance constraint. Meanwhile, uncertainties are carefully analyzed when designing the controller, including dynamics uncertainty, measurement error, and control deviation. The TRMPC ensures that all possible state trajectories with uncertainties lie in the minimum robust positively invariant set (mRPI, i.e., the so-called tube in this paper). The tube center is the solution of a nominal (without uncertainties) system. Another important contribution of this paper is to propose a technique where it is unnecessary to calculate the mRPI explicitly. Thereby, the ‘curse of dimensionality’ can be avoided for a six-dimensional system. To verify the feasibility of the proposed TRMPC strategy in the presence of uncertainties, two scenarios of autonomous rendezvous and docking (AR&D) are simulated. The simulation results show that the TRMPC method is more efficient in minimizing the uncertainties, fuel consumption, and computational cost, compared to the classic model predictive control (MPC) method.     

动力增程型高超声速飞行器的再入轨迹规划

为研究飞行过程中的动力装置启动时刻及燃料消耗情况，对轨迹进行优化，进而提出一种动力增程型弹道的再入模式。推导Sanger弹道的解析解，分析得到高超声速飞行器再入航程最优所必须的迎角及初始速度取值条件等相关前提，利用该结论设计动力装置的启动方式使航程最远、燃料利用率最大。将轨迹设计为Sanger弹道和拟平衡滑翔弹道相结合的混合弹道:再入前期利用助推器间隔点火的方式形成等高类周期跳跃弹道以保证足够远的航程; 再入后期采用拟平衡滑翔弹道，将最优控制问题转化为复杂多约束非线性规划问题，性能指标综合考虑了轨迹平滑和航程。仿真实现了所提出的动力增程型再入弹道; 并在燃料充足、弹道倾角取值合适的条件下，得到“打水漂”弹道形式，该弹道能量损失极慢，具有足够远的飞行能力。仿真表明，与不同点火方式及求解方法得出的弹道相对比，所提动力增程型再入弹道具有3.47~3.84倍的航程、1.04~1.18倍的末端动能以及4.47~15.79倍的燃料利用率。      

深空探测返回舱着陆冲击动力学分析

为分析深空探测返回舱着陆冲击动力学问题,首先建立包括返回舱及着陆土壤在内的全柔体着陆冲击动力学分析模型,并利用"神舟号"载人飞船着陆冲击试验数据对土壤模型进行修正;然后利用非线性动力分析软件LS-DYNA对深空探测返回舱着陆冲击过程进行仿真分析。通过典型着陆工况计算,得到了返回舱着陆过程中姿态变化、应力分布、关键点加速度响应曲线及冲击能量分配等。仿真结果可为深空探测返回舱结构优化设计、着陆姿态选择及地面试验等研究提供参考。     

An adaptive strategy for active debris removal

Many parameters influence the evolution of the near-Earth debris population, including launch, solar, explosion and mitigation activities, as well as other future uncertainties such as advances in space technology or changes in social and economic drivers that effect the utilisation of space activities. These factors lead to uncertainty in the long-term debris population. This uncertainty makes it difficult to identify potential remediation strategies, involving active debris removal (ADR), that will perform effectively in all possible future cases. Strategies that cannot perform effectively, because of this uncertainty, risk either not achieving their intended purpose, or becoming a hindrance to the efforts of spacecraft manufactures and operators to address the challenges posed by space debris.     

Cataract analysis and the assessment of radiation risk in space.

Radiation cataract, a non-stochastic effect on the lens, is readily amenable to non-invasive analysis. Thus, it provides the means to assess radiation risk in space and for long-term monitoring of those who frequent that environment. The importance of such evaluations are underscored by the uncertainties associated with the assignment of quality factors for the effects of heavy charged particles constituting cosmic and solar radiation. Experimental studies were conducted using albino rats to evaluate the cataractogenic potential of 570 MeV/amu Argon ions administered as both single and protracted doses. The cataract studies and investigations of quantitative cytopathological changes associated with them indicate that as the dose of heavy particles decreases, the relative biological effectiveness, compared to X rays, increases. Fractionating the exposures not only failed to reduce the cataractogenic effect but caused a dose-dependent enhancement in the time of onset of opacification. Cytopathologically, the damage caused by heavy particles, when compared to low-LET radiation was found to be quantitatively dissimilar but qualitatively identical. In addition, damage which might be consistent with microlesions was not evident. The data indicates that as regards the cataractogenic potential of heavy particles at low doses an assignment of a Quality Factor (QF) of at least 40 may be in order.     

基于在线气动参数修正的预测制导方法

针对高超声速滑翔飞行器,提出了一种基于在线气动参数修正的预测制导方法.研究了再入过程中受到的各种飞行约束,给出了多约束下控制量设计的基本方案.分析了传统预测制导法在落点预测过程中存在的气动参数偏差影响,引入综合升力系数与综合阻力系数,并对其进行在线参数估计以及参数修正,以提高制导方法的适应性.基于气动参数修正方法,完成了纵向与横侧向制导律设计.设定较大的轴向力、法向力系数组合偏差对该方法进行了验证,并考虑再入初始条件和再入气动参数的不确定性,进行了蒙特卡洛仿真.结果表明:预测制导法中引入气动参数的在线估计与修正环节,可保证其制导精度,尤其对再入过程的气动扰动具有较强的适应能力.